KILAUEA VOLCANO ERUPTS AND 9/11

The past ten days or so have mostly focused on our Pride of America cruise throughout the Hawaiian Islands.  So let me continue with one more travel item:  Kilauea Volcano began erupting last night, which was already September 11 for much of the USA, so come to the Big Island of Hawaii.  You can land in Hilo or Kona and drive to this natural attraction, although it's closer from Hilo.  But you ask, how long will this lava activity continue?  Well,it was sort of doing something only 22 days ago.  But it's hard to believe that there has been some continuing activity for the past 40 years or so.

I had recently returned from working in the U.S. Senate for three years.  As we normally did in those days, we spent the New Year period with her family in Hilo.  So on January 3, 1983, I was golfing at the Volcano Golf Course.  The ground shook and there was a strange rumbling sound.  Soon thereafter, only a few thousand yards away, we saw a volcanic fountain.  This was the beginning of the present Kiluaea eruption.  Since then, the outflow of lava has progressively moved downhill towards the Puna area.  However, Halemaumau Crater, located close by that first fountain, has been the source of the most recent activity.  This is the safe viewing spot, for you can stay at the Volcano House and just about see the night activity in the crater from your room.  

Here is a daytime photo I took when I happened to be there a few years ago.

I began this blog site on 30April2008, and was about to end it, when Kilauea again erupted, but in the Puna region, which went on to create havoc.

This blog site was created at the end of April 2008.  My plan was to continue this effort for a decade and move on to something else, so on 30 April 2018, I posted:

     MY FINAL DAILY BLOG

Well, on 3 May 2018 Kilauea Volcano erupted in the lower Puna region.  So the next day my blog site came back to life with:

PUNA AGAIN BECOMES THE MOST DANGEROUS SPOT ON EARTH

I felt compelled to report on this natural disaster because much of my life has been linked to geothermal energy and volcanic eruptions.  From that posting:

It was on 3January1983 that Kilauea Volcano first erupted.  I just happened to be golfing at the Volcano Golf Course that day, when, on the tenth hole we felt the ground shudder:

Soon thereafter, we saw fountains of lava a couple of hundred feet high only a few thousand  yards from where we stood.  This was the beginning of the current Kilauea eruption, which has now continuously gone on for three decades PLUS FIVE YEARS AND FOUR MONTHS.

Thus, this eruption has now been ongoing for 35 years and four months.  As of today, almost exactly 36 years and one month.  But a decade before that, my very first research project at the University of Hawaii was on geothermal energy.  Again to quote:

In the 1970's I suffered from numerous mosquito bites while I helped explore for and succeeded in tapping geothermal energy in Puna:

While I was the reservoir engineer in the mid-1970's with UH-Hilo Professor Bill Chen on HGP-A, one of the only examples of anything renewable in Hawaii that actually worked the first time, my interest was more on the total product potential, as I helped get started the Community Geothermal Technology Program, also known as Noi'i O Puna (NOP), or the geothermal equivalent of the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority for OTEC on the other side of the island. 

Further:

By August 7 of last year: (which was five years ago as I write this today, 11September2023)

• land covered by lava:  13.7 square miles
• new land created in the ocean:  875 acres
• homes destroyed:  716
• recovery cost:  more than $800 million

So bringing the history up to today, 40 years, 8 months and 8 days since my golf outing, the lava is no longer causing any damages, but with this eruption, you never know where it will break out, from the ridge at Halemaumau to the town of Pahoa  What it did in 2018, though, was inspire me to continue with this blog site, now in my 16th year.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again.  You know how long this is?  Remember when you started kindergarten?  Now follow your life as you graduated from high school and went to college.  You would be very close to graduating.  However, while in school you had weekends and holidays and summers.  I have posted a blog every day for more than 15 years.

September 11, today, is memorable for two cataclysms.  What is known as 9/11 occurred in 2001, 22 years ago.

My wife woke me up just after 3AM (Hawaii time), for she was somehow watching what was unfolding.  I glanced at the TV screen, and this is just about what I first saw, Flight 175 crashing into the south face of the South Tower of the World Trade Center at 9:03 EDT.  One thought occurred to me that we had enjoyed dinner in Cellar in the Sky, a restaurant within Windows of the World, at the top of the North Tower.  We were glued to the screen in bed until almost noon (Hawaii time) that day.

An earlier 9/11 had occurred nine years earlier in 1992.  

• It began with Tropical Depression 18-E in the Pacific on September 5.  
• On the 7th, my brother and his wife joined us in Eugene, Oregon, when we saw Hawaii beat Oregon 24-21.  Unfortunately, Hawaii returns to Eugene this coming weekend, and the last time Oregon played a football game at home, they beat Portland State 81-7.
• On the 7th, that depression became Tropical Storm Iniki, attaining hurricane strength on September 9.
• 
  Our next stop was a drive to Colorado Springs to see Hawaii play the Air Force Academy.  On September 10, we stopped off in Salt Lake City.  Turned on the motel TV and saw Iniki approaching  what looked like Honolulu.

• 
  Well, on September 11, Hurricane Iniki made landfall over Kauai at 145 MPH, although gusts of up to 227 MPH were also recorded.
• Caused $3 billion (worth $6 billion today) in damages.
• I end on a positive note:  Hawaii beat Air Force 6-3.  Only three field goals were scored.

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HAWAII: The Best and Most Dangerous State in the USA?

Read the local Star-Advertiser for the Maui Apocalypse details.

• Deaths up to 80 and are expected to yet increase.
• How you can assist.  The safest would be:

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency:Donations and volunteer support information at ready.hawaii.gov or 808-733-4300.

or

Maui County: Donate or volunteer by calling 808-270-7285

or

The Maui Strong Fund at 808 566-5560.

Jeff Bezos and fiancee Lauren Sanchez donated $100 million.  Of course, he is worth $163 billion.  Thus, looking at this on a percentage of richness basis, a millionaire should give around $600, and, if you are worth $100,000, then your share should be $60.  Let's see now, Hawaii-born Steve Case said he would contribute $1 million.  That's about right, for he is worth $1.5 billion.  Jeff and Lauren own a $78 million home at La Perouse Bay on Maui.

Lahaina will return.  There will be a significant boost to the island economy over the next decade, as $10 billion will be spent to restore the place.  The draw of Whales and Rainbows will overcome Cruel and Merciless Sun, which is the Hawaiian definition for Lahaina.

From Only In Your State, the 7 most horrifying disasters that ever happened in Hawaii:

• #1  1946 Aleutian Islands Tsunami Earthquake.
• Occurred on April 1.
• Five hours after the Alaskan earthquake, destructive wave hit the Big Island, mostly killing those in Hilo.
• Waves penetrated nearly half a mile inland.
• Property damage of $26 million.
• 
  #2  1941 Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor.
• I would have placed this at #1.
• 2,400 Americans killed.
• Hawaii was on the verge of invasion, but the Japanese decided to pull back.

• 
  #3  1983 Kilauea Eruption that overwhelmed the Puna area on the Big Island.
• This eruption began on 3 January 1983.
• I happened to be at the 10th hole of the Volcano Golf Course when the ground rumbled, and we almost immediately saw a fountain of lava no more than a mile or two away.  This was the beginning.
• Over the next 3.5 years a series of 44 lava fountains appeared as the eruption moved downhill to the Royal Gardens subdivision.
• There was a  shift, and Kalapana was buried in 1990.
• Activity continued until June of 2007.
• Eruption began again in 2011 to 2018 as flows entered Pahoa.  The end came 35 years after the beginning.  
• During much of this period, as winds now and then came from the Big Island to Oahu, we experienced significant air pollution in Honolulu.
• There was another Kilauea Volcano eruption in 1790 that exploded, killing 400, the deadliest volcanic disaster in the USA ever.
• 
  #4 and #5  Hurricanes Iwa in 1982 and Iniki in 1992.
• Category 1 Iwa was the first hurricane to hit Hawaii since statehood in 1959.
• Ten years later came Category 4 Iniki, killing 6 and causing $3 billion in damages.
• #6  Kept top secret until 1960, the Pearl Harbor West Loch disaster was an explosion which occurred on 21 May 1944, killing 163 Naval personnel.  An exact cause was never determined.
• #7 1960 Great Chilean Earthquake Tsunami killed 61 in Hilo and caused $500,000 in damages.  Worldwide fatalities hit 2,200.

Tossing the Maui Apocalypse into the mix, and noting the 80+ deaths and damages in excess of $5.5 billion, I would rank the attack on Oahu Pearl Harbor attack at #1, Maui Lahaina Fire at #2, Kauai Hurricane Iniki at #3 and Big Island 1946 tsunami at #4.

In short, I keep saying that Hawaii is paradise and the best place to live, and will continue to do so.  However, we are also dangerous:

• There will be future tsunamis.
• Except for Kauai, the other major islands seem to be protected from hurricanes, but a severe one could still roll over Hawaii, Maui and Oahu.
• Earthquakes can come anytime. 
• There are thousands of them every year in Hawaii.
• The Big Island is especially vulnerable, for the most dangerous ones are related to tectonic faults and earthquakes.
• We get a magnitude 6 or greater every ten years and M7 or greater every 100 years.
• Big ones only on the Big island.
• Captain Cook experienced a 6.9 earthquake in 1951.
• Kalapana had a 7.7 magnitude quake in 1975.
• There was a 7.9 earthquake in 1868 that killed 77 in Kau, causing a 20 foot tsunami.
• 
  Wildfires.
• All our islands are vulnerable, even Kauai.
• From 1904 to 1980 the estimate was 5000 acres burned each year.
• Since then, perhaps 20,000 annually.
• Of the nearly 2 million acres designated for agriculture, 6.2% were for crops, with 40% pastureland.
• Global warming?  Certainly droughts are a problem.  Plus, when the sugar industry closed down, management of grasses, Guinea especially, has become a problem.
• Maui is particularly vulnerable because of higher wind speeds.

• Floods seem to be increasing.
• Hawaii gets about 7 feet of rain annually.
• Up to 30 inches of rain in 2 days.  I remember living on Kauai when it one day rained 19 inches.  The river next to where we lived rose at least 10 feet.  A major waterfall just disappeared.
• 
  What about nuclear weapons stored on Oahu?  According to Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project, all nuclear weapons were withdrawn from Hawaii to the continental U.S. in the early 1990s.  The Department of Defense, however, has not confirmed this, and the Navy more recently has been lying about their Red Hill fuel storage system.

So is Hawaii the most dangerous state in the Union?  Probably not. About earthquakes.

• The Aleutians, Alaska had 9.2 M earthquakes in 1585, and 1964, plus many at 8 M or above.
• The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was at 7.9 M and killed more than 3000.
• Cascadia (Washington, Oregon, California) in 1700 had an earthquake of possibly 8.7 to 9.2 M.
• Missouri (New Madrid) in 1811-12 had one of from 7.2-8.2 M, killing at least 100, and maybe 500.
• The 8.6 M Aleutian Islands earthquake on 1946 killed 165.
• The 10 M earthquake predicted for Yellowstone is mostly man-made.
• The Mount St. Helens earthquake was only 5.1.
• California is not going to fall into the Pacific Ocean, however, over geologic time, Los Angeles and San Francis will one day be adjacent to one another.

Wallet Hub ranked the states that could be impacted by natural disasters, and you wouldn't believe which ones are at the top:

• #1    Mississippi
• #2    Louisiana
• #3    Texas
• #4    Iowa
• #5    Alabama
• #9    Florida
• #25 New York
• #32  California
• #47  Hawaii
• #49  Alaska
• #50  Maine

But, NOAA and FEMA data were used by Primal Survivor to rank the most and least natural disaster states, and the results are very different:

• Highest risk:  California, Texas, Oklahoma, Washington and Mississippi.
• Least risk:  Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont and Maine.

Finally from Moneywise, the 25 most disaster prone states:

• #1    Texas (fires, floods, tornadoes, hail, winter storms, hurricanes)
• #2    California (earthquakes, wildfires)
• #3    Oklahoma
• #4    Washington has had 190 major disasters since 1953.
• #5    Florida, mostly hurricanes.
• #6    Oregon has had 139 major disasters during the past 70 years.
• #10  Louisiana and Colorado.
• #15  Mississippi
• #23  Alaska
• NO MENTION OF HAWAII.

What a relief.  We are the best state, and are not the most dangerous.  In fact, we are a relatively safe state.  We are #47 in terms of danger by natural disaster.  I should beg to disagree, but will instead take experts at their word and feel a lot more secure.

I end with Day 8 of my African Blood Lily.

Typhoon Lan has weakened down to 75 MPH, will make landfall over Japan on Monday, August 14, track upwards into the Japan Sea, then turn north towards Hokkaido.  Note below that ocean storm to the right of Lan.  Hurricane Dora finally decided to turn north.

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ON DEATH, VOG AND JACKPOTS

Much of today brings back memories.  Let me start with the possible return of COVID-19, which served as the theme of my Thursday postings for years. 

• According to the CDC, there has a been a spike in COVID-19 cases of 18% this past week, and 24% hike in hospital admissions.
• From Worldometer, 173 Americans died of COVID this past week and 277 in the previous week.  Of course, last year 550/week died from the flu, and this rate tends to jump in the winter, so flu deaths today are considerably higher than from COVID.  And few take the seasonal flu seriously.
• 
  This alarms professionals like Ashish Jha.
• More people tend to die 21 to 28 days after cases begin to increase.
• 60% of Americans did not get boosted.
• And look at how politics can make a difference.

About that New Orleans terrorist attack by 42-year old Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar, he was inspired by ISIS, but probably acted alone.  Donald Trump was wrong again, blaming Jabbar as an immigrant.  He was born in the USA and lived in Houston after spending 8 years of Army active duty, including a stint in Afghanistan.  The postponed Georgia vs Notre Dame Sugar Bowl will be played in the Super Dome today.

Speaking of Trump, at about the same time as the incident in New Orleans, an Elon Musk Cyber Truck exploded at the Trump International in Las Vegas. Driver died of a gunshot wound and seven bystanders were injured, all stable.  The driver, 37-year old Matthew Livelsberger from Ohio was also an Army soldier who was on leave.  Served 19 years in Special Forces, and was also deployed in Afghanistan.  No motive at this time

While Honolulu recovers from that large fireworks accident yesterday, where three were killed and 19 seriously injured, there are larger and more natural fireworks still ongoing in Halemaumau Crater, for the volcanic eruption continues, and seems to be strengthening, on the Big Island.  Going back in time, I just happened to be golfing at the Volcano Golf Course on 3January1983:

I had recently returned from working in the U.S. Senate for three years.  As we normally did in those days, we spent the New Year period with her family in Hilo.  So on January 3, 1983, I was golfing at the Volcano Golf Course.  The ground shook and there was a strange rumbling sound.  Soon thereafter, only a few thousand yards away, we saw a volcanic fountain.  This was the beginning of the present Kiluaea eruption.  Since then, the outflow of lava has progressively moved downhill towards the Puna area.  However, Halemaumau Crater, located close by that first fountain, has been the source of the most recent activity.  This is the safe viewing spot, for you can stay at the Volcano House and just about see the night activity in the crater from your room.  

That was 42 years ago, and that Pu'u'ō'ō eruption lasted 35 years, the most voluminous outpouring of lava from Kilauea Volcano's East Rift Zone in more than 500 years.  So how long will this one go on?  Hopefully it ends today, for by tomorrow the winds will change to "Kona weather," and this volcanic haze, called VOG OR VAZE, will come to Honolulu.  In the past I couldn't go golfing on some days, for the air pollution was worse than the bad days of the 1950's in Los Angeles.

Sure, you're familiar with that $1.22 billion Mega Millions winner from California on 27December2024, but were you aware that the largest Mega Millions jackpot on a single ticket for for $1.58 billion on 8August2023, won by Saltines Holdings in Florida.  Gaze over these winners and dream.

1. 1  The largest Mega Millions jackpot won on a single ticket was for $1.58 billion for Aug. 8, 2023, drawing. Final sales pushed the grand prize to $1.602 billion. The winning ticket was sold at a Neptune Beach, Florida, Publix. Saltines Holdings LLC of Miami, Florida, claimed the prize.
2. 2  The second-largest Mega Millions jackpot was $1.537 billion, won in South Carolina on Oct. 23, 2018.  Others:

Well, there is also Powerball.  Here are all the billion dollar plus winners.

1. 1  $2.04 billion Powerball prize, Nov. 7, 2022, Edwin Castro of Altadena, California.  What did he with his winnings?  Took a lump sum $997.6 million, and bought several homes, including a $47 million mansion in Bel-Air, California and a $25.5 million Hollywood Hill home.
2. 2  $1.73 billion Powerball prize, Oct. 11, 2023, Theodorus Struyck of California (ticket purchased at Midway Market in California).  Others
3. 
   
4. $1.586 billion Powerball prize, Jan. 13, 2016, Marvin and Mae Acosta of California, Maureen Smith and David Kaltschmidt of Melbourne Beach, Florida, and John and Lisa Robinson of Munford, Tennessee
5. $1.58 billion Mega Millions prize, Aug. 8, 2023, Saltines Holdings LLC of Miami, Florida
6. $1.537 billion Mega Millions prize, Oct. 23, 2018, won by an anonymous player in South Carolina
7. $1.348 billion Mega Millions prize, Jan. 13, 2023, LaKoma Island Investments, LLC, with the ticket purchased in Lebanon, Maine
8. $1.337 billion Mega Millions prize, July 29, 2022, won by an anonymous partnership with a ticket purchased in Des Plaines, Illinois
9. $1.326 billion Powerball prize, April 6, 2024, Cheng and Duanpen Saephan and Laiza Chao of Oregon
10. $1.22 billion Mega Millions, Dec. 27, winner TBD
11. $1.128 billion Mega Millions prize, March 26, 2024, won by an anonymous winner in New Jersey with the ticket purchased at ShopRite Liquor No. 781 in Neptune Township, New Jersey
12. $1.08 billion Powerball prize, July 19, 2023, Yanira Alvarez of California
13. $1.050 billion Mega Millions prize, Jan. 22, 2021, won by the Wolverine FLL Club of Oakland County, Michigan

You should know that:

• The odds against winning the jackpot in Mega Millions for a $2 ticket are 302.6 million to one.  
• Your odds against winning $2 are 37 to one by matching one of the 25 gold balls.  Easier in Powerball, for the odds are 292.2 million to one.

• Want to be careful about your life?
• You have a 1 in 2.7 million chance of being attacked by a grizzly bear in Yellowstone National Park.
• You have a 1 in 3.1 million chance of getting killed by an alligator in Florida.
• 
  In 2017 the price of ticket for Mega Millions rose from $1 to $2.  Beginning April 2025, a ticket  rise to $5.  
• You cannot play Powerball or Mega Millions in Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada and Utah.
• What if you do win the jackpot?
  

If you’re lucky enough to win either jackpot, even if you aren’t the sole winner, experts recommend moving quickly to assemble a team that includes an attorney, a tax advisor, and a financial advisor. They also encourage protecting your ticket and keeping your victory a secret for as long as possible.  That may be easier in some states than others — only a select few let winners of such large jackpots remain anonymous.

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HOW LONG IS A LIGHT YEAR?

In November of last year I began to serialize Chapter 4 on Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.  To gain an appreciation of distance, it is useful to link this dimension with time.  To begin with, the title is nonsense, for a light year is not a dimension of time.  This is the distance light travels in one year.  Rounding it off, call it 6 trillion miles (6,000 billion miles or 6,000,000 million miles).

Thus, one light year is a very long distance.  To travel 6 trillion miles, you would need to make more than 30,000 round trips from Earth to the Sun.

I was on the Big Island of Hawaii for the New Year period in 1983.  On January 3 I happened to be golfing at the Volcano Golf and Country Club.  I forgot exactly at what hole, but in the back nine, the ground shook.  We then noticed that a couple of miles away a lava fountain appeared at Puu Oo.  Kilauea Volcano has now been continuously erupting for 10,000 days.  This is close to a billion seconds.

I had returned to the University of Hawaii a few months previously after a three year assignment working for the U.S. Senate.  Much of my professional life thusly unfolded, plus a decade of retirement...and that was about a billion seconds ago.  Light traveled 186 trillion miles during this 27+ year period.

Let me repeat, light traveled 186 trillion miles from January 1983 till today.  The closest star is Proxima Centauri at 4.2 light years, so if intelligent life lived there, we could have each have sent three messages to each other during this period.  But our Milky Way Galaxy is huge.  Light would take 100,000 years from one end to the other.  Another way of contemplating all this is that during this period from when I saw that eruption of Kilauea Volcano in 1983 till today, light would have travelled just 2.7% across just our galaxy, and ours is not a particularly large one.

How vast is space?  Best estimates are that there are from 200 billion to 400 billion galaxies in our universe, and each galaxy has, oh, 100 billion stars.  Interesting, though, that our neighbor galaxy, Andromeda, is closer to Planet Earth than the center of our galaxy.  Thus, it would take light (or an electronic signal) only 25,000 years to reach the edge of the Andromeda Galaxy from Hawaii.

So, if you're wondering if flying saucers regularly visit us from other stars, consider that the fastest man-made object is Helios 2 at slightly more than 150,000 miles per hour.  A spacecraft travelling at that speed would take almost 20,000 years to reach Proxima Centauri.  If you can remember that far back, Pioneer F(also #10, the one with info about our civilization) is headed for Aldebaran, a star 65 light years away.  We long lost contact with this probe, but if it succeeds in getting there, you will need to wait another 2 million years.

But why go to Aldebaran.  Let's shoot for Proxima Centauri (which, unfortunately, is a Red Dwarf, and pretty useless for life, but we'd be in the neighborhood of Alpha Centuari, only a few miles further) and not be limited by current knowledge.  Nuclear pulse propulsion (which once was Project Orion, cancelled by the 1963 test ban treaty), can get us there in 85 years.  But, for what?  The bottom line is that it would probably take 100 times the current annual energy use of the entire planet.

Today, I recommend that we refine the astroscience, but not spend anything on actual manned space travel.  We landed on the Moon, and that was worth the ultimate fracturing of the Soviet economy. But international grandstanding was apparently necessarily to end the Cold War.  Today, we have no equivalent enemy worthy of such grandeur.  Yes, let's advance knowledge, but the $120 billion Bush the Younger budget and $500 billion Bush the Elder proposal for Man on Mars can be delayed...by about a millennium.

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