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Showing posts sorted by relevance for query 2050 world expo, blue revolution. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query 2050 world expo, blue revolution. Sort by date Show all posts

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

IS IT TOO EARLY TO ENVISION A TRIP TO MARS OR ADVOCATE A BLUE REVOLUTION?

This is the first of a series on the Blue Revolution.  Visionaries have of course dreamed of something similar, as for example,  Homer's Odyssey from the 8th century BC describes the floating island of Aeolus.  Jules Verne advanced his Self-Propelled Island in 1895, inhabited entirely by millionaires.  Today, they would be billionaires.  He mentioned submarines, and global adventures (like Around the World in 80 Days), even suggesting the use of hydrogen.  But these were elemental topics, a few linking to our ultimate concept of a real Blue Revolution.


Nicolaus Copernicus in the early 1500's formulated a model of the Universe that placed the Sun, rather than Earth, at the center.  He had connections and was careful not to seriously offend the Church.  He lived to a ripe old age of 69.  Scholars like Fillipo Bruno of the Dominican order had a belief in other worlds.  That was around 1600, and he was convicted of heresy by the Inquisition and burned at the stake in Rome.   He got to the age of 52.   

It is safer today to think so boldly, for Elon Musk similarly challenges society by beginning his quest for Mars. He will be 50 in June.  He envisions a self-sustaining city could take shape on the Red Planet as early as 2050.  He safely covers himself, estimating the effort to cost somewhere between $100 billion and $10 trillion.  He is worth around $200 billion, so theoretically could pay the whole check at the lower end.

Alas, I too have a dream.  Mine is focused on Planet Earth on the open ocean.  I have written about a floating city hosting the 2050 World Expo at a cost of $150 billion.  Unfortunately, I don't have that kind of money, and need to find an imaginative billionaire, or team of them, to proceed with my inspiration.

It was just about a dozen years ago that The Huffington Post published my article on the Blue Revolution.  A few quotes:

  • A few months ago, my Huffington Post article on “The Dawn of the Blue Revolution” reported on the potential the ocean provided for humanity. The world has been wrestling with the economic collapse and worried about the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming. Almost never is the ocean recognized as part of the solution. The surface of our globe has two and a half times more water than land. Surely, then, greater consideration should be given to this largely ignored and mostly protected portion of our planet.
  • In my 2003 Bruun Memorial Lecture to UNESCO in Paris, I proposed that the United Nations take a leading role in galvanizing Project Blue Revolution. There are important Law of the Sea and international political issues to be considered. There are today only 192 countries forming the UN. Someday, perhaps, a thousand OTEC-powered Blue Revolution platforms, each a nation in itself, could well be plying our oceans, providing clean and sustainable resources for Humanity in harmony with the ocean environment.
  • Well, the thought of a thousand new nations is disarming at best, but noteworthy because of the potential immensity of the promise.
  • Not too long ago we had the romance of space with Star Wars and the Apollo Project. But each NASA shuttle shot costs about a billion dollars, the same amount as the U.S. Department of Energy has annually spent over the past decade to develop renewable energy. We can keep contemplating the sky, but the reality is on Earth, and, more specifically, our seas.
  • Where else can we turn to for next generation clean energy technologies, green materials, exciting new habitats and more seafood? The ocean, of course, and three recent developments have particularly caught my attention.

Add to the above the potential for preventing hurricanes and remediating global warming, and you have the ideal concept for the entire world to work together to create a self-sustaining society in harmony with the natural environment.  Over the next couple of days I will provide details on what exactly is the Blue Revolution, how much work has gone into establishing the fundamental principles and how you might yourself want to be a contributor.

To answer the question at the top, the combined answer is NO!  Humanity can support both Musk's vision and mine.  I wish him well on his Mars enterprise, and also hope that the 2050 World Expo will be hosted on a floating city.   He will see his dream come true, while I would be 110-years old if mine happens, so, almost surely not.


Wednesday, September 4, 2019

PLANNING BLUEPRINT FOR THE BLUE REVOLUTION

A week ago I brought you up to date on the Blue Revolution.  In it I referred you to The Ultimate Blue Revolution, where:

The Ultimate Blue Revolution will in time number a thousand or more mega-facilities for a billion or more people total.

Some time after 2100, but perhaps 3000, half of our population will live at-sea in mostly self-sufficiency.  If the latter time frame, then everyone will have been genetically engineered to be smart, athletic and good looking.  The aging gene will have been checked, and births will only be allowed to keep the world population at an optimal level.

That's the easy part, for once the concept takes hold, the potential of enhancing our environment while providing exciting new marine habitats and a range of sustainable products in a free enterprise system will mushroom.  The difficult parts are those initial hurdles:
  • That gathering will provide a blueprint and strategy for financially supporting the environmental impact study, design, construction and operation of the Pacific International Ocean Station.  It will take $150 million for the 10 MW OTEC open ocean plant ship as an industrial platform for pre-commercial development of next generation fisheries, marine biomass plantations, hydrogen systems, marine algae pathways for nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, and biofuels, plus a lot more.  The target year for full operation is 2030.
  • By 2040 planning can proceed for the Pacific Ocean International Exposition (POI Expo), a floating city to cost $150 billion, for full habitability as the site of the 2050 World's Fair.  This ocean platform will be movable, and will in 2051 re-locate south to the equator.  Population?  A million?
It's pretty clear that the POI Expo will be located south of Hawaii at the equator, where  hurricanes will not be a problem.  Imagine the cost of having to buy land to build a colony for a million people, where freshwater,  farms, industries and complete infrastructure will be available.  Well, that ocean space is free, freshwater will be "free," and fertilizer (from upwelling) will be free.  Ocean transport is the lowest mode of shipping.  The energy will be renewable, meaning there will be carbon credits to gain by then, for the floating metropolis will enhance the environment.

While official world fairs are usually held on a five-year cycle, there have been flower-related and technology gatherings, too:
  • World's Fair 2010:  Shanghai
  • World's Fair 2015:  Milan
  • Expo 2019:  a world horticultural exposition began in Beijing on April 29 and will close on October 7
  • World's Fair 2020:  Dubai
  • Expo 2023:  Science, Innovation, Art and Creativity for Human Development in Buenos Aires
  • World Expo 2025:  Osaka
The world fair site for 2030 will be decided probably in 2023 or so.  Thus, if Hawaii wants to be host for 2030 linked to the Pacific International Ocean Station, the team to bid for this selection needs to be in place soon.  The reality is we are too insignificant, and, almost assuredly, just won't be able to get our act together.  Plus, Busan thinks it already has secured that year.  The more realistic date would be 2050.  That should be just perfect in terms of anniversaries, for the very first international gathering, The Great Exhibition, was held in London 1851 with a theme:  Industry of All Nations.

Thus, the task is pretty obvious.  Just find that initial half a million dollars to host the summit, build PIOS and plan for the POI Expo.  With funding, the public-private consortia (Pacific International Center for High Technology Research???) can move ahead:
  • expand dock facilities by upgrading the University of Hawaii Pier 35 marine operations
  • another possible site is where Hawaiian Electric had a downtown power plant:
    • this location can be called the Blue Revolution Marina, for PIOS will need several ships 
    • perhaps Hawaii Pacific University can become a partner, for they run the Oceanic Institute at Sea Life Park
    • this would be the ideal shore staging ground to proceed with the POI Expo.
  • erect a Blue Revolution building of blue glass so that the structure looks like a large wave when observed from off shore
It's also clear that the State Legislature will need to become involved early on, for what else does the state have to expand non-tourist economic activity?  Local Hawaiian groups would probably look forward to being at the initial stage of doing something that promotes their future, instead of holding back progress.  Good opportunity for the University of Hawaii and Hawaii Pacific University to combine their marine activities.  

The future of Hawaii's economy, the only growth potential, is in the sea around us.  What we can begin to do today with the Blue Revolution will determine the course of Planet Earth and Humanity.

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While the Hurricane Dorian death toll for the Bahamas is still listed at 7, I can't imagine this figure will hold, for the devastation was catastrophic:


Looks like the eye of Hurricane Dorian will not make landfall again, but the Carolinas will still suffer from the storm surge, rain and winds:


East of Hawaii, Hurricane Juliette has weakened to 100 MPH and will continue to diminish over the next few days:


In the Orient, Typhoon Lingling will batter Okinawa, and particularly Miyakojima, an island that has recently been prominent in my postings, then head for South Korea:


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Wednesday, June 26, 2019

PACIFIC OCEAN INTERNATIONAL EXPOSITION

A week ago I reported on two tiny signs of potential development for the Blue Revolution.  I also better described a concept I first introduced on 6 April 2019, a $150 billion Blue Revolution platform as the modern-day answer to the Apollo Project, which served to bankrupt the Soviet Union and end the Cold War, and the Manhattan Project, as an antidote to Hitler, terminating World War II.  

The threat today?  Global climate warming, which could well be that mythical World War III.  If international cooperation does not work, where Donald Trump is now the poster villain, all the potential geoengineering solutions just cost too much money, and some look downright frightening, where the mere introduction could lead to WWIII. I introduced this concept more than a decade ago in the Huffington Post.  The uniqueness of the proposed Pacific Ocean International Exposition is that the Blue Revolution should turn a profit, while preventing global warming, plus retarding hurricane formation.

The Seasteading Institute is already spearheading enterprises in the open ocean.  I wouldn't say their form of government will resemble Libertarianalism, but there definitely will be less government interference with business.  Their intention, too, is to start  each enterprise with profit in mind.

I've of course been dabbling with the Blue Revolution for at least 30 years, early on highlighted by a keynote presentation to the First Very Large Floating Structures Conference:

In 1991 Hawaii State Senator Richard Matsuura and I presented the first paper on the Blue Revolution, a concept that returns as the key to the future. (That was from The Huffington Post, but this blog site also had a posting on the subject.) 

Nearly a decade ago I met with Guy Toyama, and our discussion led to the formation of Blue Revolution Hawaii:

Guy's legacy might well be Blue Revolution Hawaii and the Pacific International Ocean Station.  A couple of years ago, we were having lunch in Kona when he mentioned how billionaire Gordon Moore had provided funds to initiate the Thirty Meter Telescope Project (TMT).  As Guy had an office at Keahole Point at the entrance of the NELHA, why not the Blue Revolution with support from a billionaire?  Thus was born Blue Revolution Hawaii, which proposed the Pacific International Ocean Station.  Guy created the presentation for PIOS, which I presented at the Seasteading Institute's conference in San Francisco.  

I'll soon report on how much that decade-long delay of the TMT cost Hawaii.

Blue Revolution Hawaii proposed the Pacific International Ocean Station (PIOS) to test out all the engineering and early business models for enterprises on a floating platform to be placed in the Hawaiian EEZ to the west of Oahu.  Half the $150 million cost will be for a 50 MW ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) facility, which will provide electricity, freshwater and nutrient deep-ocean cold water.  The architecture will be pioneering and is undergoing review.

There has been interaction with a variety of international academic (this photo is of Leighton Chong and I having lunch with Zhejiang Ocean University at Orchids), governmental, industrial and other organizations showing interest in this pre-commercial effort to develop sustainable products from the sea:  seafood, marine biopharmaceuticals, ocean biomass plantations, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.  An important facet is environmental:
  • Can upwelling be utilized to remediate global warming?
  • What are the prospects for a thousand 1000 MW ocean cities to be continuously supported by the available deep ocean water at 39 F?  There is more than enough warmer surface water.
  • Will hurricane formation be retarded or prevented by raising the surface temperature a degree F or two?
  • And what about hurricanes, for several of them yearly approach the potential site of PIOS?
Financing will determine the course of the project, and the first phase could well be the utilization of a 10 MW OTEC power plant with a segmental floating platform, which can be augmented over time.   Even at this first stage, there will be housing and support provided, with docking facilities.  This will be like the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority, but at sea.

Timing of the above?  2030.  Funding?  We need to find that visionary billionaire seeking a maritime legacy.  There are hordes of them now in space:  Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, Elon Musk's Space X, Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic and Yuri Milner (left), who wants to know, are we alone in the Universe?

PIOS will pave the way for the Pacific Ocean International Exposition (POI Expo).  In that posting of a week ago I suggested the timing would be for POI Expo to be the site of the 2030 World's Fair.  Perhaps PIOS might want to consider that attraction, for on further reflection, my sense is that POI Expo will become functional around 2050.  In addition to the reality of how long things take to happen, the timing is particularly ideal, for the very first World Expo occurred in London in 1851, two centuries before.

It should take a decade for PIOS to fully develop the cornucopia of products and environmental enhancement thrusts capable of being drawn together for the Pacific Ocean International Exposition.  Various initiatives should be ready for full development by 2040, beginning with one 100 MW module.

By 2050, the power capacity should be up to 1000 MW, with a range of industries and entertainment attractions, and here to the right is an architectural concept advanced by Shimizu Corporation:
2050 should be just about the right timeframe for Rinaldo Brutoco's Hydrogen Clipper to be fully commercial.  No reason why this next generation dirigible shouldn't be able to fly at 300 MPH (the Goodyear blimp plugs along at 50 MPH), taking less than eight hours to make it from San Francisco to POI Expo.  A thousand passengers can be dropped off with each flight, and the airship refueled with hydrogen, while hovering over the airport, which will be as large as a helicopter pad, for it will never actually land.

Worried about safety as influenced by the Hindenburg disaster?  Engineering studies show that hydrogen can be designed to be safer than jet fuel.  If what Toyota and Honda are developing with hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles are any indicator of promise, the Hydrogen Economy should be in full bloom by 2050.  While hydrogen flight is now in stall, the lowest weight for energy availability will someday prevail, especially as the waste product will be water, not carbon dioxide.  

It's pretty clear that the POI Expo will be located south of Hawaii at the equator, where  hurricanes will not be a problem.  Imagine the cost of having to buy land to build a colony for a million people, where freshwater,  farms, industries and complete infrastructure will be available.  Well, that ocean space is free, freshwater will be "free," and fertilizer (from upwelling) will be free.  Ocean transport is the lowest mode of shipping.  The energy will be renewable, meaning there will be carbon credits to gain by then, for the floating metropolis will enhance the environment.

The larger question is one of funding.  The threat of Hitler and Soviet Union spurred the Manhattan and Apollo Projects.  The U.S. government paid for both.  Global warming looms to be at least as menacing.  Five years ago the International Energy Agency suggested a cost of $44 trillion.  Last year year this price went up to  $54 trillion.  But that is only to prevent a 1.5 C temperature increase.  Bring that up to $551 trillion for a need to combat 3.7 C.

From Axios:

There's $500 trillion of wealth on planet Earth, give or take: Maybe $230 trillion in land and property, $200 trillion in debt and $70 trillion in equity.

In perspective, the Manhattan Project would cost $30 billion today.  Apollo Project?  $300 billion.  Thus, POI Expo at $150 billion is in the range of those two other monumental efforts.

Global warming is a coming global calamity, so the USA will not be alone this time.  Also, too, if POI Expo promises profits, then the private sector should want to get involved.  Amazon and Apple are both worth around $800 billion today.  But companies have risk-averse boards.

The opportunity of a future trillionaire to spearhead this challenge becomes obvious.  The first will not come along for another quarter century, but the timing is right for those individuals to take the leadership role.

Next, the Ultimate Blue Revolution.  Remember, more than 70% of Planet Earth is covered with water.  The graphic to the right comes from a friend who passed away two decades ago, Athelstan Spilhaus.  What if our oceans some day support a thousand ocean cities and industrial parks, and more?  When?  More details tomorrow.

Friday, August 26, 2011

WHAT HAWAII MUST DO NOW TO AMELIORATE THE COMING DOOM



This is a long one, but these are my powerpoint slides of my talk at Noon today to the Engineers and Architects of Hawaii:


WHAT HAWAII MUST DO NOW TO AMELIORATE THE COMING DOOM


Patrick Takahashi
Hawaii Natural Energy Institute
University of Hawaii
to the
ENGINEERS AND ARCHITECTS OF HAWAII

26August2011





WHAT IS THIS DOOM?

(No, it won't be doomsday.  Nothing like an asteroid or tsunami.)


WHY HAWAII IS DIFFERENT

…and worse.
We are the canary 
in the coal mine.

We tried to diversify our economy, but failed.
Tourism is our only industry.



PEAK OIL:
Has it been reached?

Almost anything could trigger an increase in the price of oil beyond $150/barrel.
Jet fuel prices will skyrocket
Tourism could drop by 20-50%
Hawaii could well become the first to go into a local economic depression.
THAT IS THE GLOOM.



THERE WAS THE
DESPAIR OF THE 70’S
Energy Crises (1973 and 1979)

Limits to Growth (Dennis    
    and Donella Meadows)

Population Bomb (Paul Ehrlich)







Silent Spring (Rachel Carson)


Acid Rain
Embarrassment of the Vietnam War
Cold War...Nuclear Winter



HOWEVER in the 70's…

There was no notion of Peak Oil nor of Global Warming





Renewable systems were experimental first generation technologies.




IS THE WORLD COMING TO AN END...AGAIN?

There are doomsday 
    individuals and 
    organizations in Hawaii 
    and around the world.
They are convinced that 
    the combined hammer of 
    Peak Oil and Global 
    Warming will cataclysmically 
    affect the world economy.
Then there are those who feel that giving up is not an option.




IS HAWAII DOING OKAY?
To read, click on this cartoon by David Swann from the Star Advertiser.



IS HAWAII DOING OKAY?

Absolutely, if you are the Hawaii Wahine volleyball team.  And there are other favorable signs:

   
Weather is great!


BUT……..





OPTIONS FOR AMELIORATION CAN BE FOUND IN

  

















WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO NOW

Continue those current sustainable pathways, but immediately initiate an aviation strategy:
A substitute for jetfuel
Next generation air 
    transport system




WHAT SPECIFICALLY CAN WE DO IN HAWAII?


Convince Senator Inouye and President Obama that the country needs 
National Grid Act (like Eisenhower’s National Defense Highways Act), with Hawaii as the first test case
Manhattan Project on BioJetFuel.
Next generation aircraft program.
Initiate the Blue Revolution.



The Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority at Keahole Pt., Hawaii





Blue Revolution
NSF/NOAA Ocean Resources 2000   








Concept of the Blue Revolution






VALUE OF DEEP OCEAN WATER (1000 meters)


Cold (4 to 6 degrees C) 
Relatively pathogen free
Redfield ratio at high nutrient concentration
200 times higher in nitrates
20 times higher in phosphates





PRODUCTS FROM 


THE BLUE REVOLUTION


Electricity,freshwater, space conditioning and hydrogen
Marine biomass plantations for biofuels and green materials
Next generation fisheries
Industrial platforms
Disney at Sea
Marine cities



Blue Hydrogen

Given the ocean, sunlight and genetic engineering of microbes, how can hydrogen best be produced.
I chaired three one week workshops in the 1987 to 1990 period, where about 100 of the top bioscientists from the world over came to Hawaii to discuss how best to ultimately utilize the ocean to produce hydrogen.




BLUE REVOLUTION


Blue Revolution Hawaii (Board below--Fujio Matsuda, John Farias, Guy Toyama, Leighton Chong, plus me) has initiated the Pacific International Ocean Station initiative.



WHAT SPECIFICALLY CAN WE DO IN HAWAII?

-Convince Senator Inouye and President Obama that the country needs 
National Grid Act (like Eisenhower’s National Defense Highways Act), with Hawaii as the first test case
Manhattan Project on BioJetFuel.
Next generation aircraft program.
Initiate the Blue Revolution.
Find a way for people to work for a common cause, so what about Hawaii hosting the 2020 World Expo focusing on the ocean?




EXPOS AND OLYMPICS HELP CITIES GET OUT OF THE BOX

My 2010 world trip included Tokyo, Seoul, Helsinki, Barcelona, Munich, San Antonio and Seattle.  They learned that working together worked.
Trip this fall will include London and Rio, two cities with upcoming Olympics.




WORLD EXPO (FAIR)

2010   Shanghai,
           China (right)
2012   Yeosu, South
           Korea
2015   Milan, Italy

Future years not yet selected.




THE HAWAII 2020 
OCEAN EXPO

Focus on the ocean.
Have international consortia help build the various Honolulu Mass Transit stations.
Give them development rights around the station for a century.  Each will build a hotel, restaurants, entertainment attractions, etc., featuring their culture. (Like Disney’s EPCOT.)




EPCOT World Showcase



THE HAWAII 2020 
OCEAN EXPO

Focus on the ocean.
Have international consortia help build the various Honolulu Mass Transit stations.
Give them development rights around the station for a century.  Each will build a hotel, restaurants, entertainment attractions, etc., featuring their culture. (Like Disney’s EPCOT.)
When the expo is over, these stations will make Honolulu the leading global center and the mass transit system will have higher ridership.



IMAGINE HAWAII OF 2050


State-wide undersea grid bringing windpower and geothermal energy to Oahu.
Progress after the Hawaii 2020 Ocean Expo.
OTEC systems with a Disney at Sea, casino, and 
BLUE REVOLUTION industries.
Hydrogen powered next generation aircraft.

THIS CAN ALL BE POSSIBLE IF WE START NOW!


The Engineers and Architects of Hawaii have been around for more than a century.  To the left is President Geoffrey Paterson, while to the right is Sam Gilley, who does everything for the organization.


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