THE RAZZIES, OSCARS AND MORE

I'll begin with the Razzies, also known as the Golden Raspberry Awards, a parody honoring the worst cinematic under-achievements.  The list of nominees is always announced just before the Academy Award announcements are made.  Winners this year will be publicized on March 11, the day before the Oscar ceremony.

The Razzies:

• Were created by a few film industry veterans and UCLA film graduates in 1981.
• This was all started by John JB Wilson (right) who in 1980 hosted a potluck party immediately following the 53rd Academy Award ceremony, where he passed ballots out for the partygoers to vote on the worst film of the year. 

• 
  The winner of the first Golden Raspberry Award was Can't Stop the Music, a fictional account of The Village People.  I noticed that Rotten Tomatoes gave it 18%/37% ratings.  Among the stars were Steve Guttenberg, Valerie Perrine and Bruce Jenner (won Olympic Gold in Montreal 1976, then later became Caitlyn), to the right.

• 

  For the record, in Year One Neil Diamond won Worst Actor for The Jazz Singer (RT: 23/69) and Brooke Shields won Worst Actress for her The Blue Lagoon (RT: 8/53)portrayal.  She went on to make another 35 films.
• Something I'm sure you want to peruse, all the Razzie Worst Pictures since 1980.

• 
  The Golden Raspberry Award Organization now has 650 members (they actually pay a fee) from 19 countries.
• Noteworthy:
• Sandra Bullock in 2010 won both a Razzie and Oscar for Worst and Best Actress, but for different films.
• Wall Street (1987) won both awards for Worst/Best Picture.
• Sylvester Stallone has been awarded 10 times.

• 
  Got to add this.  The 1990 Adventures of Ford Fairline and Ghosts Can't Do It were both so bad that they shared Worst Film.  Not only was this, in GCD, Donald Trump's only real acting attempt, he won a Razzie for Worst Supporting Actor.  This movie featured Bo Derek, and was directed by her husband, John.  I wouldn't want to watch this, and didn't, but here is supposedly the whole film.  Maybe you'll get to see The Donald's performance.  And, by the way, absolutely do not watch this other whole film, Ghosts Can Do It.

• 
  You can view the nominees for this year here.  Among them:
• Tom Hanks is up Worst Actor for Pinocchio and Worst Supporting Actor in Elvis.  I saw this show and never really recognized him.
• Sylvester Stallone made the list again.

And, oh yes, there will be the Academy Awards on March 12, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.  Again, for details, read this.  Otherwise:

• 
  Everything Everywhere All at Once got 11 nominations, the most.
• All Quiet on the Western Front, a German production that began to be shown on Netflix last October, got 9.   Also The Banshees of Inisherin.
• No female directors were nominated, even though they won the past two years.
• Also, no Steven Spielberg, James Cameron and Baz Luhrmann.
• 
  Michelle Yeoh in EEAAO is only the second Asian female to gain a Best Actress nomination.  First?  Merle Oberon in 1936, but that could be because she hid her mother's ancestry:  Sri Lankan.  Jamie Lee Curtis received her very first nomination for Best Supporting Actress.

Everything Everywhere All at Once is shown on Showtime, the channel that comes free in 15 Craigside, so I watched it.  

• Rotten Tomatoes bestowed excellent scores:  95% from reviewers and 89% from the audience.
• Rated R.
• One reviewer said:

Delightfully bonkers on the surface, this inventive extravaganza from the directing team called Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) has a deep layer of family feeling and a well-earned emotional pull at the end.

December 27, 2022 | Full Review…

• Me? You would think a film featuring an Asian family dealing with parallel universes would be appealing.  Nope.  Did not like the movie.  Too confusing, too many fisticuffs, a few technical flaws, with an uncertain ending.  I would have given it a 50% score.

All Quiet on the Western Front has been long available on Netflix.  Wasn't interested in the subject.  

• Rotten Tomatoes also liked this production:  92% by reviewers and 90% by audiences.
• It is based on the book published in 1928 by Erich Remarque, German veteran of World War I which, was banned by Nazi Germany.

• 
  In 1930 came the film of the same name, made in the U.S., which won an Academy Award, but was boycotted by the American Legion.  It is called the greatest war film of all time.   Rotten Tomatoes gave this film 98/89 ratings.  Want to see it....for free?  CLICK ON THIS.
• There was then a television film in 1979 starring Richard Thomas, Patricia Neal, Donald Plasance and Ernest Borgnine.  Got Rotten Tomatoes ratings of 100/69. Want to see it?  Here, all 2 hours and and 35 minutes, in color.
• Elton John wrote and first sang All Quiet on the Western Front in 1982.

• 
  As I was planning to blog on this subject today, I last night watched the 2022 version of All Quiet on the Western Front.  It has been available on Netflix since October.  However, I avoided it because all World War I bunker films I find boring.  I'm afraid this one was, too.  Rotten Tomatoes loved it, but not me.  On occasion, too noisy, grimy, muddy, gory, pitiless, inhumane and so on.  It did, though, evoke the desired message about the horrors of this human insanity.  War is atrocious, barbarous, brutal, evil, harsh, sadistic, degenerate, monstrous, etc.  I enjoy movies with heart, happiness, joy, visual beauty.....AQotWF had none of this.  Well, as this ad shows, it was a few times visually spectacular.  As much as this was a war to end all wars, we never learn.

I do end with a rather astonishing fact:  more people live in New York City than 39 of our 50 states.

As of today, NYC has a population of 9 million, Los Angeles 3.9 million and Chicago 2.8 million.  Of course, there is confusion as to what really is a city.  Here are two numbers, the UN 2018 population estimate of the municipality in the first column and the city proper in the second (in millions):

• #1    Tokyo 37.4   13.5
• #2    Delhi  28.5  16.8
• #3    Shanghai  25.6  24.9
• #4    Sao Paolo  21.7  12.3
• #5    Mexico City  21.6  9.2
• #6    Cairo  20.1  9.5
• #7    Mumbai  20.0  12.5
• #8    Beijing  19.6  21.9
• #9    Dhaka  19.6  8.9
• #10  Osaka  19.3  2.7
• #11  New York  18.8  8.8

A few oddities:

• The largest city in the world is Shanghai with a population of 24.9 million.  It has more people than 48 states, with California at 39.2 million and Texas at 29.53 larger.
• Strangely, the city of Beijing has more people than the municipality.
• I haven't been in only one of the above, Dhaka, which is the capital of Bangladesh, and have no particular interest in correcting that deficiency.

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WHAT IS HAPPENING TO CHINA?

I was compiling several stories about China to use in my series on the country, and will today end this series to get a sense of what is happening in China today.  But first, my weekly COVID-19 summary:

   From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

2021

Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

2022

Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 

Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12

May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64

June    2         216      1413         130          10        31

July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 

Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?

Sep    1          272       1732         174            ?         ?

Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?

Nov    3          167         980           16            ?         ?

        25            88         985           71             3        ?  

Dec    3          149       1029         131            3         ?

          8          194       1320         104             6       86

        15          147       1295         124             4         ?

        22          289       1637         165             9         ?

        28          296       1768         337             2         ?

Jan    5           220       1611         183             ?         ?

        11           408       1645           96             ?         ?    

        12           270       1470         128             ?         ?

        19           225       1775         480             ?         ?

        26           351       1361           92             1         7

Summary:

• Japan yesterday continued to be #1 in new cases with 79,354 and new deaths with 368.  The U.S. was #2 in both with 29,738 and 351. 
• China did not report to Worldometer yesterday, but intermittently responds with ridiculously low numbers.

However, and astonishingly, a prominent government Chinese scientist just claimed that 80% of the people in the country have been infected.  This person is Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention.  Thus, relative to other countries (I'm leaving out tiny islands), these are the percentage of people who have been infected with COVID-19.

• #1      China  80%
• #3      Austria  64%
• #9      Iceland  60%
• #10    France  60%
• #12    South Korea  59%
• #23    Israel  51%
• #26    Switzerland  50%
• #35    Germany  45%
• #39    Australia  43%
• #42    Italy  42%
• #47    Taiwan  39%
• #50    Singapore  37%
• #53    UK  35%
• #60    USA  31%
• #72    Norway  27%
• #78    Japan  26%
• #107  Russia  15%
• #119  Canada  12%
• #126  UAE  10%
•           WORLD 9%
• #142  Thailand  7%
• #143  South Africa  7%
• #161  India  3%
• #185  Pakistan  0.7%
• #224  Tanzania  0.6%
• #228  CHINA   0.3% (this was a figure sent in by China two days ago)

• Many other countries fall in the China non-reportage level.  As for example, most of Africa, India and to some degree, Russia.
• In reality that World infection percentage of 9% should be at least 25%, and perhaps 50% or higher.
• For the past few months Japan has mostly ranked #1 in new cases/day, with the USA mostly #1 in deaths/day.  We both tend to be high mostly because we are supposedly accurate in our reporting.  However, less and less, as most tests are now done at home, and who knows how many cases are officially reported.

So about China, wonder how Dr. Wu will keep his job.  On the other hand, Peking University earlier had already suggested that 64% of their population had been infected, not far off from his 80%.  PU also said that 60,000 people died just between December 8 and January 12.  

How many people in the World died during this same period?  Around 7500.  This means that nearly 90% of all World covid deaths during those five weeks occurred in China!!!  The good news is that cases are reportedly on the decline in the country.  However, the recent Chinese New Year mass migration of 2 billion travelers going home surely will test the validity of their herd immunity.  Their vaccines are not all that good.

Let me change subjects to population, where China is now experiencing a population decline, shrinking last year for the first time since 1961 (famine killed tens of millions), dropping 850,000 from 2021.  Why the decrease?

• Far reaching consequences of the earlier one-child policy, which was loosened in 2015 and totally discarded in 2021.
• That policy began in 1980, and over time, changes in the economy and attitude are now that young couples don't want children anymore.  Incentives are not working.
• Don't think the pandemic was a factor.

The elderly now make up nearly 20% of the population, and, like Japan, serious stagnation is inevitable.  

• Japan reached zero population growth in 2000 and started to decline in 2010.  
• Worse, the drop is today accelerating.  
• The expectation is a population drop in Japan from the current 126 million to 88 million in 2065.
• Blame is generally placed on single women, where unmarried females aged 25-29 jumped from 21% in 1975 to 66% in 2020.  Those 30-34 rose from 8% to 39%.  You would think males have something to do with this too.
• Also, more women are now working.  The labor participation rate of women aged 25-29 leaped from 45% in 1970 to 87% in 2020.
• South Korea and Taiwan are going through these same changes.

The past few decades of growth have been spectacular.  But China's economy grew by only 3% in 2022, the worst rate in nearly 50 years.  Unemployment among those aged 16-24 was 16.7% in December.  Women suffer more.  China ranks #102 among 146 countries in the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Index.

By 2035, 400 million people, over a third of the current population, will be over the age of 60.  As is already facing Japan, China will shortly have a horrendous problem supporting the elderly.

In April of this year, India (1.33 billion) will shoot pass China (1.4 billion) in number of people.  China's population in 2050 will be 8% smaller than today, while India's will continue to grow.  By 2064 India should have 1.7 billion people, and will be 50% larger than China.  However, China is not alone, for the United Nations projects that 61 countries/territories will see a population decrease between 2022 and 2050.  The USA?  Immigration is the difference keeping us growing.  Even India will not too long in the future experience some decline.  Watch out for Nigeria.

Foreign Policy has five predictions for China in 2023:

• COVID-19 will kill an additional 2.7 million people in China, with a major wave occurring at the end of January.  The USA has reported 1.1 million deaths so far.
• Economic recovery will be weak.
• There will be a travel boom, both incoming and outgoing.
• There will be more and more small protests.
• Softer words about Taiwan.

About that China-U.S. bilateral trade discrepancy?  More recently it mostly disappeared.

What about China attacking Taiwan?  This danger is real, but different.  The Diplomat says China Is Not Russia--Taiwan Is Not Ukraine.  In summary:  Under these circumstances, using force to bring Taiwan back to the “motherland” is not an option for China now, and will not be in the foreseeable future, as long as there is a big gap between the Chinese and the U.S. militaries. 

The U.S. Peace Institute has the same title and similar opinions.  Foreign Policy has a recent attitude.

Essentially, the U.S. has a significant military advantage over China.  Here is a direct comparison.  Another is that the USA spends more on war than the next 9 countries combined.

We spend around $2400/person on war, while China is at $210/person.

Here is a thoughtful video on what to expect from China, featuring Malcolm Clarke.  A case is made that China is a different kind of global power.  It is not imperialistic.  However, last year an American general expressed fear that China was seeking a military naval base in Africa. They succeeded, so China now has one, and seeks, as reported, three more.  The USA has 750 military bases spread across 80 countries involving 166,500 American troops.  This publication lists China in five countries.

Instead of troops, China sends out planners, engineers, and other civilian personnel.  They provide loans, build roads and so forth, the purpose being to gain the support of the international world.  It is working, for The Pew Research Center says more and more countries are leaning in the China direction:

In short, China is more fearsome as a rival into the future, but Russia is dangerous today because of the war in Ukraine and the small chance that this could escalate into a nuclear war.   This factor is standing in the way of wholesale western military aid to the country.  When added up, something like 114 tanks will be sent to Ukraine.  Not only will these arrive slowly, over many months, but do you realize how relatively insignificant this ferocious input will have?

According to this source, the Russians have lost 2216 tanks so far in Ukraine.  At the beginning of this war, Russia had 3330 operational tanks set to invade Ukraine, with 10,000 in reserve.  How many is the Western world sending Ukraine again?

How can I end the week with war?  Let's go back to the 2016 Masters golf tournament.  The 16th hole.  Louis Oosthuizen the golfer.

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GREEN HYDROGEN and THE FUTURE OF AVIATION: Part 2

If you have long been following the progress of the hydrogen economy, you probably missed an esoteric piece of history that began with the Matsunaga Hydrogen Act of 1990.  Here is the clause from the Act.

• 
  Created the Hydrogen Technical Advisory Panel (HTAP) to advise the Secretary of Energy.
• I searched through the details and could not find language to allow this to occur, but I think HTAP unilaterally decided to report to both the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Congress.  
• For all I know, this might have been unconstitutional.  That is, a panel that had equal access to the executive and legislative branches of the Federal government.
• For example, when HTAP submitted the recommended hydrogen budget to the Secretary of Energy, we also sent this same budget request to both houses of Congress.
• The result was that the Department of Energy tended to annually have the same budget to make approval easier.
• He, is, by the way on a $10,000 savings bond.

When I chaired HTAP, I called a panel meeting where the members spent a couple of days fashioning an elaborate and progressive (meaning incredibly optimistic) 20-year budget, beginning in the early 90s at less than $10 million/year, increasing in 12 years to almost $80 million/year.  This was all reported in the 1995 Progress Report entitled The Green Hydrogen Report.  Surely enough, during the George Bush the Younger reign as president, the USDOE hydrogen budget one year exceeded the solar technology budget.

Then, over the past two decades, the hydrogen budget declined, until the Biden administration, when, with the spur of Congress, hydrogen again saw increases.

While the hydrogen budget is now lower than solar, hydrogen is higher than wind energy and geothermal energy.

I also mentioned yesterday that when I drafted this hydrogen bill, I combined the focus of renewable hydrogen with another pathway for a hydrogen jetliner.  We thought that NASA was the appropriate department, but also added transportation.

This led to NASA's Rockwell X-30 demonstration project, designed to fly from Washington to Tokyo in two hours.  Our motivation was to initiate the early work leading to something like the National Aerospace Plane for commercialization.  The program went on for four years and was spun off to the Department of Defense black operations in the 1990-92 period.  Can't seem to get budget info, but the program was sent to the skunk works operation of Lockheed Martin in Palmdale, California.  Unofficial reports indicate that perhaps $2 billion was spent, but the project was diminished, whatever that means.  If that figure is true (which then means more money was spent for this obscure effort than the total Department of Energy hydrogen research budget since the beginning of time), then the USA should be positioned to someday move into a future hydrogen jetliner like the National Aerospace Plane.

Watch this video of where commercial flight will someday go.  I wrote The Future of Sustainable Aviation for the Huffington post almost 14 years ago.

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CAN HAWAII LEAD THE WORLD IN DEVELOPING THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY?

I've long been the primary cheerleader for Hawaii being the world lead in the development of the Blue Revolution.  Watch my TEDx talk of about a year ago.  But this effort "only" began a little more than three decades ago.

My initial crusade, going way back into the 1970s, was hydrogen.  This inspiration came from my assignments at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory working on laser fusion.  After all, hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe (73%), through fusion of hydrogen every star generates all the energy we notice in space, and combusted with oxygen from the atmosphere, the products are energy and water.   All fusion processes use isotopes of hydrogen. I mean, if any superior intelligence out there is trying to send us a message, this has to be it.  

When I found myself in 1979 working for U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, my top agenda item was to somehow find a way to promote the hydrogen option.  Well, Lockheed just happened to succeed with Mini-OTEC off Keahole Point of the Big Island soon after I got to DC, so I was asked to work with the Energy and Natural Resources Committee to draft a bill for this technology.  This we did, and the legislation became law the following year.  Already in the back of my mind was the possibility of using this source to re-initiate growth at the surface to foster a Blue Revolution.

Hydrogen was somewhat more challenging, for very few knew anything about this gas.  However two other lobbyists from Lockheed, Willis Hawkins (who was a company veep and board member) and Dan Brewer (who later went on to edit the CRC book on Hydrogen Aircraft Technology) convinced me that the future of aviation was a hydrogen jetliner.  

Having just come from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, I arranged for Senator Matsunaga to tour the facility on his way back to Hawaii.  This he did, and when he returned, he asked me to draft a bill on hydrogen.  I asked, isotopes of hydrogen for fusion?  And he said, no...from renewable energy.  Heck, I thought, why not add the future of hydrogen aviation to his renewable legislation, and fused the two into a bill.  So I must give Sparky credit for originating the total concept of hydrogen, which became the Matsunaga Hydrogen Act, sparking the advent of the hydrogen economy.

Thus, Hawaii now has two pathways to a sustainable future, the Blue Revolution and becoming the first Hydrogen Society.  Here is MY STORY OF HYDROGEN.   Also read my posting of 21 December 2022 on WHY HYDROGEN.  

Just being involved with the genesis of anything is not enough.  You can imagine a future, but that is all I've been doing.  Someone has to get the job done, or at least start the transition.

Appropriately enough, Mark Glick (right), who has been sitting in the office next to me on the Manoa Campus for a decade, just moved back to the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism to again lead the State Energy Office, and has been placed in charge of the State of Hawaii's mission to become a hydrogen center.  Somewhat fortuitous, for I don't think we ever had an in-depth discussion on this subject.

All of this recent local hydrogen activity is reported in Honolulu Civil Beat by Stewart Yerton (right):  Proposed $1 Billion Hydrogen Fuel Hub Signals a New Start for Reenergized Hawaii Agency.

• Hawaii is one of 32 U.S. locations to make the first cut of the Department of Energy's monumental hydrogen program.
• Proposals are due in April to select the top 10.
• The Hawaii Hydrogen Hub, also involving Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Gas, Oceanit, DIBS Hawaii and other local companies and organizations, will leverage half a billion dollars of federal money with half a billion dollars in matching funds for hydrogen fuel development in Hawaii.  Supposedly:

Oceanit has developed new ways to produce hydrogen from water and to transport hydrogen in innovative fuel cells and tanks. Perhaps more important, the company has devised a way to treat existing natural gas pipelines so they can tolerate carrying hydrogen, which can damage untreated pipes.

• 
   Reported Pat Sullivan, founder and chief executive of Oceanit.

“We have the technology to make the world better, create jobs and develop the economy.” 

• Hawaii is the only competitor in the middle of the Pacific...and with a military partner, plus native-Hawaiian Company, DIBS Hawaii.  Until you've been part of any major activity in Hawaii you can't imagine the influence of the Hawaiian community.  The Thirty Meter Telescope is just one example.

• Said Chris Sadayasu, who led the effort:

“People are skeptical, let's be honest, because Hawaii might not be ready,” he said. “But we're saying we're going to be ready. We'll get ready. We're going to be ready because we need to be ready.”

Having been involved with hydrogen now for almost half a century, I can empathize with Sadayasu's attitude.  Of course, sometimes I hurt my cause by advocating inane pathways.  I can vividly remember being in Long Beach 17 years ago to receive an award.  Walking up to the stage, I wondered what I could say that might some day be monumental.  It was an inspirational moment, and I blurted out something to the effect of government making hydrogen free.  You can read this revelatory incident in one of my Huffington Post articles:

     What About Free Hydrogen?  (Part 1)

This was not well thought out.  In fact, the concept came to mind while I was on the stage.  However, it made for interesting discussion during the rest of the conference, and pretty much died and became forgotten.  As I think about this incident now, I'm re-beginning to re-think that this might not have been a bad idea at all.

My long-time colleague at the University of Hawaii College of Engineering, Bruce Liebert, sent me this Civil Beat article.  We are both long retired, but Sullivan was his PhD student, and I think I was on the advisory committee.  We are indeed proud of our graduates.  That photo of Bruce is as Chambellan Provincial, or highest officer in the Pacific area for a cuisine society to which I once belonged, Chaine des Rotisseurs.

What do I personally think about the Hawaii Hydrogen Hub?  Certainly more credible than Free Hydrogen.  Unless you try, you get nowhere.  I wish them my very best.  A key factor to remember is that no one just hits a home run the first time you pick up a bat.  For anything grand and prodigious, there is a long and difficult transition.  

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