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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

COVID-19: The Science

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

DAY           USA   WORLD  Brazil  India South Africa
May     13    1772     5314
            14    1715     5317
            15    1595     5072
            16    1218     4360
            17      865     3618
            18    1003     3445
            19    1552     4589
            20    1403     4685
            21    1418     4934         1188     150         30
            22    1293     5252           966     142         28
            23    1036     4183           965     142         10
            24      617     2826           703     156         22
            25      505     3096           806     148         52
            26      774     4048         1027     172         43

Summary:
  • Not a good day for Humanity.  Worse, the regions with a total population of 3.4 billion are finally showing serious signs of local outbreaks:
    • South America is becoming the next hot spot.
    • India/Pakistan/Bangladesh loom as the next.
    • Africa remains worrisome.
    • Most of South America and much of Africa are in the southern hemisphere, where June means December.
    • These areas represent 44% of the World.
  • FACE SHIELD
    • It was two months ago when I ordered a face shield from Amazon.com.  Sure, I was competing with frontline workers, but I'm old and also deserved to get one.
    • Six weeks later I complained to Amazon, and they said it's not their fault, I had to contact the source.  So I did.
    • It thus turned out not to be an issue, for my shield did not arrive until last week. 
    • My jihad for a face mask was driven by my fear that a face mask was not sufficient, for the virus can enter through the eyes. 
      • Funny, but almost no one agreed with me but doctors and nurses working in the ER.  
      • Then I recently noticed that these warriors facing the coronavirus all day had half the incidence of the ailment than the general population of New York.  Had to be the face shield.
    • Today, the morning paper (Star Advertiser, pg A14) had an article detailing why a face shield was a better way to open up the economy.
      • Singapore will provide face shields to preschool students and staff when they return next month.
      • In Pennsylvania and California, this option is also being introduced.
      • You touch your face more when you wear a mask.  You can't touch your face with a shield.
      • Face shields are good for a very long time.
    • Amazon.com has a variety of face shields, some for less than $5.  I'm not guaranteeing you'll get one if three days.
Wednesday is science day, so I will educate you on this novel coronavirus:  
  • The one causing the current pandemic is scientifically called COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2.  
  • The first coronavirus developed anywhere from 10,000 to 300 million years ago.  Clearly, scientists don't know exactly when.
  • Also is responsible for MERS, SARS and some common colds.
  • Many came from bats (right, the Wuhan type).
  • Other types also derive from rodents (two which cause the common cold).
  • Also an origin is a scaly anteater called the pangolin.  See that animal to the right?
  • Sometimes, as in SARS, there is a transfer animal:  bat to civet to human.
  • Typically a cough where a hundred or more of these virus cells getting into your mouth and throat initiates the process.
  • The reason why some get sicker than others has a lot to do with the how your body and circumstances allow this intruder to invade your lungs.  
  • In the throat or nose and your sense of smell and taste is affected.  The SARS virus generally stopped here, but the mortality rate was 10%, a hundred times worse than the seasonal flu.
  • I'm tossing in this graphic here for those who really want to know more, which you can only read if you go to the original Nature site.  
  • If they can find their way into your lungs, then the worst begins.  Pneumonia can lead to a ventilator.  If you get this far and you are old, your chances of survival are less than 50:50.  While early studies thought that 90% of everyone on a ventilator died, more recent mortality looks like "only" 25% to 50%.  Age and pre-conditions worsen the statistics.
  • A robust immune response can stop the virus, but sometimes there is an overreaction of the immune system, which worsens the condition.
  • If the infection then gets into the blood, other organs will be impacted.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.
  • Truths about COVID-19:
    • There are no drugs licensed for treatment and prevention.
    • Adding pepper to your meals does not prevent or cure.
    • Not transferred by houseflies and mosquitos.
    • Drinking alcohol does not help.
    • 5G mobile networks do not spread the disease.
    • Exposing yourself to the sun or temperatures higher than 25C does not help.
    • Holding your breath for 10 seconds or more does not mean you are not infected.
    • Can be transmitted in hot climates.
    • Cold weather does not kill the coronavirus.
    • A hot bath does not affect the disease.
    • Hand dryers or UV lamps do not help prevent the virus.
    • Pneumonia vaccination does not make you immune to this disease
    • Rinsing your nose with a saline solution does not help.
    • Garlic does not prevent infection.
    • Antibiotics are for bacterial ailments.
There are more, but this is a list that gets most asked.

The year 1995:
  • Aum Shinrikyo gases Tokyo subways with Sarin, killing 13 and injuring 5,510.  Eleven of the group were hanged in 2018.
  • Timothy McVeigh (right) and Terry Nichols explode a bomb in Oklahoma City, killing 168.  McVeigh executed in 2001.  Nichols shares Bombers Row in Colorado with Ramzi Yousef, Eric Rudolph and Ted Kaczynski.
  • The Dalai Lama proclaims 6-year old Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th reincarnation.  The Chinese government places him in custody and kept under wraps.  Just last week an announcement was made that Gedhun graduated from college and has a stable job.
  • Saddam Hussein warns Iraq has biological and nuclear weapons.
  • Sony introduces PlayStation.
  • Million Man March in DC led by Louis Farrakhan, leader of the Nation of Islam.
  • Bombay now known as Mumbai.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin assassinated in Tel Aviv.
  • Population of the World up to 5.7 billion.  Today, 7.6 billion.
Best hits of 1995...in 2 hours and 11 minutes.  In 3 minutes the best song each year from 1995 to 2015.  Watch out, next year, 1996, came The Macarena, while 1997 had Candle in the Wind.

To close on this day of education, words to improve your vocabulary.

I knew only one.

As you must know by now, the Space Shuttle launch by SpaceX was scrubbed because of the weather.  One of the problems was that the second ocean storm of the year, Bertha, made landfall over the path of the rocket, far north of the launch site.  Interestingly enough, read about Endeavour's cancellation in 2011, the year of the last previous attempt.  Like that delay, Crew Dragon with NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, will suffer through a three-day delay.  Thus, Saturday is now the new date to get them to the International Space Station.

Elon Musk's Spacex has a $2.6 billion contract for 6 launches.  Boeing has one worth $4.2 billion, but they have had more problems.  My question is why?  Space endeavors became obsolete with the end of the Cold War.  NASA plans to crash the International Space Station back to Earth some time in this decade, and we've already been to the Moon.  Mars?  Cost?  $500 billion. Why?  Someday, perhaps in the next century, and surely by the next millennium, but there is no real purpose today when there are more urgent problems like global warming to solve.

Let me end with a lamentable contrariety:  the day the USA experienced our 100,000th COVID-19 death, the  Dow Jones jumped 553 points.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

COVID-19: Why You Should Not Binge-Watch

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

DAY           USA   WORLD  Brazil  India South Africa
May     13    1772     5314
            14    1715     5317
            15    1595     5072
            16    1218     4360
            17      865     3618
            18    1003     3445
            19    1552     4589
            20    1403     4685
            21    1418     4934         1188     150         30
            22    1293     5252           966     142         28
            23    1036     4183           965     142         10
            24      617     2826           703     156         22
            25      505     3096           806     148         52

Summary:
  • Good day for the USA, for we have fallen behind Brazil in new deaths.
  • While we had more new cases (19,790) than Brazil (13,051), that is because we test a lot more:  45,910/million population versus only 3,461 for Brazil.
  • Of the six countries with the most total cases, though, we are behind Russia, Spain, the UK and Italy in tests/million people.
  • From Mexico down through most of South America, cases and deaths are increasing.
The New York Times indicated that the actual death count is around 30% higher than reported.  Thus., the nearly 100,000 deaths should be around 130,000.  In any case, compared to the 7500 (summer) to 8000 (winter) deaths/day that normally occur in the U.S., this number increased to 10,000/day at peak because of COVID-19.

Several ways of looking at this:
  • One, by taking precautions, the nation was able to plateau and lower the death curve.  
  • But two, looking at the percentage increase in deaths (roughly "only" about 15% higher averaged out over a four month period), was the resultant panic which totally discombobulated our economy--rivaling what happened during the Great Depression nearly a century ago--an overreaction and unnecessary?  
    • Was the quarantining really worth the loss in revenues?  
    • During a time of war a lot people die, but the overall economy does okay.  
    • During this COVID-19 war, of course too many died as in any conflict of this type, but was the compounding of a significantly depressed economy justified? 
  • However, a third relativity analysis could argue that if the country did not lock down, deaths could have been much, much higher, so what is right and wrong, justified or not, would only be hypothetical.
Also from The New York Times, to add further stress to a society in a pandemic:
  • The federal government’s annual hurricane forecast for the Atlantic Ocean came out on Thursday, and it’s worrisome. A typical hurricane season has 12 named storms. This year’s season — which officially starts June 1 — is expected to have between 13 and 19.
A Netflix survey found that 61% of users regularly watch between 2-6 episodes of a show in one sitting.  Two, fine...six too much...anything more, dangerous.  That was me last night.









I had the benefit of a two-hour afternoon nap, so I was in good shape to watch a few Netflix offerings.  I usually watch those series I focused on a week ago in this blog site.  However, that can get old, so I went into a search mode and noticed something I had recently read in TIME.  Went to Rotten Tomatoes, and wow, 84% by reviewers and 98% by the audience.

So I clicked on it at 6:20PM, and it said two parts.  That should be two hours at most, I thought.  Watched the first episode and went to the second.  Then, #3 comes on, so, I thought, oh, each part must have been two hours long, so there would be a #4.  Yes, but after that came episode #5.  Each segment is 49 minutes long.  I then understood.  Two Parts mean Two Seasons.

It was now 10:30PM.  I had a snack.  This is one reason why you shouldn't binge, for you eat and drink more than you should.  Rarely is this a salad.  Something like white wine and potato chips or buttered pop corn are especially desired.  Fortified, the series was so gripping and captivating that I thought, okay, one more.  Then another to episode #7.  It was 1:45AM.  Not a huge problem because I'm in quarantine and had nothing to do the next day.  I could just sleep, right?

But I had trouble going to sleep and ended up with only two hours when I was awakened to a knocking on my door, for breakfast was being served.  I live in 15 Craigside where you are treated like a child.  You thus don't quite live your life, your way.  If you don't pick up your meal, you get a call.  If you fail to open your door by 10AM you get a visit because they're afraid you might have had a stroke or worse.  This is independent living with conditions.

I never did say what I binged on because some time soon there will be a Part 2 reviewing the series.  I now find out there are 20 episodes, so I will need to survive the above two more times.

Further, Netflix found that 74% of households have at least one streaming service and that teens spend 7.5 hours watching a screen, in addition to what they need to do at school or for homework.  But they're different from olds, like me, for they spend time on things like YouTube.

  • Not best for our mental and physical well-being.
  • Isolation.
  • Eating large amounts of unhealthy food.
  • Poor sleep quality, causing fatigue and insomnia.
  • Adults who watched more than 3 hours of TV/day doubled their risk of premature death.
  • Exacerbates diabetes, heart disease and cancer.
  • You could get addicted.  Thank heavens, sport programs are returning.  But I do binge on them, too.  Will I just be adding to my problem with Netflix and Amazon Prime?
If you are so entertained that you must binge, stretch and so forth in place and take regular mini breaks.  Absolutely don't snack.  But if you must (this is me saying this, not the experts), consume half what you normally might.  Better to binge with others, so you can share the experience.  However nearly 60% rather watch alone.

At some point when out of lockdown, you will be saved, for most can't, or can't justify, wasting so much time.  Back-to-back-to-back, The West Wing would take five straight days of watching, the whole 24 series 146 straight hours.  Only those who don't work, like retirees, continue to be in trouble.

Thankfully, something called hedonic adaptation (HA) could save you.  This is a psychological phenomenon where your viewing pleasure decreases with time so that you find something else to do.  Yet, for some, the gratification of seeing a story from start to finish overwhelms HA.  Further, if a series is into, say, five seasons, if you don't regularly watch, you forget what previously happened.  This is especially so if you're old.  All these decisions.

I'm now into 1994...

...Joseph Vadus (that's him to the left when he was Chief Technology Officer for NOAA) and I co-chaired a workshop in Kona, where the participants came to a conclusion that a 100,000 square foot (one hectare) floating platform could be built for $500 million, half the cost of one B-2 bomber, with a target date of the Year 2000.  The notion of half a billion dollars scared funding agencies and congressional staffers.  So a decision was made to pursue specific marine bio-product and ocean enhancement pathways, which someday in the future could be integrated unto a floating platform.  It was left to the private sector to develop OTEC.

Now, 20 years later, still no floating platform for the Blue Revolution.  However, I'm hosting a session in my Manoa Campus office next month to re-start the effort.

In less than three minutes all the #1 hits of 1994.  Otherwise for the year:
  • Nancy Kerrigan attacked by assailant hired by Tonya Harding's ex-husband.
  • Edvard Munch's The Scream is stolen and found.
  • China gets first internet connection.
  • Chunnel Tunnel opens.
  • Nelson Mandela inaugurated as first black South African president.
  • Nicole Brown Simpson and Ronald Lyle Goldman murdered.  O.J. Simpson is acquitted of the crime.
  • Aum Shinrikyo cult sarin gas attack at Matsumoto Station subway.  Leader Shoko Asahara was executed in 2018.
  • Jeff Bezos founds Amazon.
  • North Korean President Kim Il-sung dies, and his son (Kim Jong-un's father) takes over.
  • Woodstock '94, the 25th anniversary of Woodstock 1969.
  • Major League Baseball goes on strike and World Series cancelled, first time since 1904.
I'll end with Bill Maher making fun of Donald Trump:


By the way, in case you did not know, if you click on the bottom right of the above Blogger link, you will see a dotted square.  If you click on that, you will view the whole video on full screen.  To return to this page, click on "esc" located on the top left of your computer keyboard (at least that is where mine can be found for a Mac system).

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Monday, May 25, 2020

COVID-19: FOR FREEDOM--In Honor of Our 620,000+ Fallen Americans

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

DAY           USA   WORLD  Brazil  India South Africa
May     13    1772     5314
            14    1715     5317
            15    1595     5072
            16    1218     4360
            17      865     3618
            18    1003     3445
            19    1552     4589
            20    1403     4685
            21    1418     4934         1188     150         30
            22    1293     5252           966     142         28
            23    1036     4183           965     142         10
            24      617     2826           703     156         22

Summary: Perhaps COVID-19 is beginning to go away, even if our economies are opening up.

I noticed in the morning World Report a trifecta of sorts:  Benjamin Netanyahu, Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump.  A remarkable set of coincidencies:
  • Netanyahu
    • Yesterday was the first day of his felony corruption trial.  Apparently they can try a sitting president in Israel.
    • An outlier, at least he is doing well with COVID-19.  Yesterday, no deaths and only five new cases.
    • Also, no indication that he is taking hydroxychloroquine.
  • Bolsonaro is a mirror image of Trump:
    • He is under mounting pressure following the resignation of Brazil's FBI head, pressured because he was investigating corruption related to Bolsonaro's children, two as key figures on criminal fake news charges.  Impeachment is being pursued.
    • Brazil now is #2 to the USA in COVID-19 cases.  He downplayed this pandemic, calling it a "little flu," and is against quarantining.  He prescribes chloroquine for coronavirus treatment.  Trump sent him 1,000 ventilators.
    • Trump just banned travel to this country.  Hmm...Russia was #2, now is #3, and has not yet been placed on this list, even though Europe came after China.
I'm now into 1993.  I remember co-chairing a meeting in the nation's capital:

Stan Dunn of Florida Atlantic University and I co-chaired a workshop at the headquarters of the Department of Commerce in D.C. in 1993 to prepare a feasibility plan for the design, construction and operation of a fleet of OTEC-powered plant ships to retard the formation of hurricanes.    We published a paper entitled Artificial Upwelling for Environmental Enhancement.


Stan ran the Florida Atlantic University Engineering program for 18 years, at a time when I was director of the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute.  Click on that article.  Should be very interesting for some.

Highlights of 1993:
  • Bill Clinton sworn in as the 42nd president.
  • World Trade Center bombing in New York City.
All 58 top ten hits of 1993 in 16 minutes.  Here is a remarkable love story of Maria in Echo Park:


If you missed the National Memorial Day Concert last night, here it is, all of 1.5 hours, but you'll need to wait five minutes--so you can in your own way honor our 620,000 fallen Americans, and the + is to add the COVID-19 first-line warriors--before it comes on.  Five minutes seem like an awfully long time if you just wait, so reminisce and rally your mind.  If you just want to see the show, surely you know how to skip through the meditation phase.


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Sunday, May 24, 2020

COVID-19: Too Good to Throw Away

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

DAY           USA   WORLD  Brazil  India South Africa
May     13   1772      5314
            14    1715     5317
            15    1595     5072
            16    1218     4360
            17      865     3618
            18    1003     3445
            19    1552     4589
            20    1403     4685
            21    1418     4934         1188     150         30
            22    1293     5252           966     142         28
            23    1036     4183           965     142         10

Summary:  Good day for Humanity.

Sunday is my day to show some some faith, usually science over religion.  President Donald Trump did it again, contrary to even what his scientific advisors are saying, by announcing that he would override governors to open places of worship today.  I was wondering why his continued incompetence has been mostly tolerated by the masses.  Then today I saw that ONLY 17% of Americans trusted the Federal government BEFORE this COVID-19 Pandemic.  This New York Times article was entitled:

Will the Coronavirus Kill What’s Left of Americans’ Faith in Washington?

That's enough of this pandemic (incidentally, on Wednesday I will focus on the next pandemic:  global warming) for today.  Let me instead foist on you all those video clips and photos and stuff taking up too much space on my desktop, for they're too good to throw away:


Likewise, some photos and stuff:


#1 Songs of 1992 in six minutes.  What happened in 1992?

  • First confirmed detection of exoplanets.  If you recall, I spent the summer of 1976 at the Ames Research Center to do this, and did come up, with Charles Townes, a method that could have done this cheaper and much quicker.
  • President George H.W. Bush meets with President Boris Yeltsin and formally declare that the Cold War is over.
  • Maastricht Treaty signed, the European Union is founded.
  • Los Angeles riots involving Rodney King and Koreatown.
  • Falun Gong forms in China.
  • First World Oceans Day coinciding with the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro.
  • Hurricane Iniki demolishes Kauai.
  • Bill Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot for President of the USA.  Would Bush have been re-elected if Perot did not run?
To close, a Musical Tribute to and from Hawaii's Class of 2020.


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Saturday, May 23, 2020

COVID-19: Elton John and Wagyu

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

DAY           USA   WORLD  Brazil  India South Africa
May     13   1772      5314
            14    1715     5317
            15    1595     5072
            16    1218     4360
            17      865     3618
            18    1003     3445
            19    1552     4589
            20    1403     4685
            21    1418     4934         1188     150         30
            22    1293     5252           966     142         28

Summary:
  • Looks like the World new death rate is increasing.
  • While Brazil, India and South Africa all dropped, the new death rate will most likely show increases in the weeks to come.  Remember that Brazil and South Africa are in the southern hemisphere, meaning that June will be equivalent to December.  Colder weather will spur infections.
  • It's now becoming obvious why Taiwan reacted so well.  They were directly linked through personnel and custom about what was really happening in Wuhan.  They took wise steps before other countries.
  • I've long wondered how Thailand, which was #2 to China in COVID-19 cases when I was there in February, now is #73.  I think this was because, after that first jump of cases, the hot weather controlled the virus.  April is their hottest month, and it is always too hot there anyway.
  • Warm weather seems to also be helping India.  So does cold weather hurt?  Cases/million population:
    • World:      680
    • USA:      4973
    • India:          91
    • Thailand:    44
    • Iceland:   5287
    • Sweden:  3251
    • Qatar:    14078
  • So why are the U.S. and Qatar (I've been there...it's worse than Thailand) so high in cases/million?  While I'm tempted to say that President Donald Trump botched the whole thing, but another factor is the number of tests/million.:
    • USA:        42050
    • India:          1973
    • Thailand:    4701
    • Iceland:   170745
    • Sweden:    20798
    • Qatar:       62819
  • So the matter is more complicated due to a huge difference in testing/capita.  This is why I use new deaths rather than new cases to get a better gauge on what is happening.  While you got to wonder about how well Russia and some other sites are reporting this figure, here is a comparison of these countries in deaths/million:
    • World:             43.5
    • USA:             295
    • India:                 3
    • Thailand            0.8
    • Iceland             29
    • Sweden          389
    • Qatar                  7
  • So, low temperatures do induce more COVID-19 deaths, while high temperatures suppress them.  Should be good news leading into the summer months.  Remember, Sweden did not use quarantining as a country policy, and, of course, the USA keeps doing all the wrong things.  Go to Worldometer for all the above statistics.
Even in isolation, I go out of my way to make Friday night special.  I found one piece of Japanese Wagyu Beef, from Miyazaki, no less, so decided to splurge the final bit of luxury I had in my refrig.  After my now MWF 1.5 hours of exercising with the machines, I took a bath with a Martini, this one replacing Vermouth with Double Black Johnny Walker, in a 6:1 ratio, plus two jalapeno stuffed olives:


The sake was a Hakkaisan Tokubetsu Junmai, Mickey's Beer and one of my Stanford reds:


This 2011 Inman Family Pinot Noir earned a 92 rating and can today be purchased for $68.  Generally, a Burgundy wine does not age as well as Bordeauxes, but should still be okay up to 15 years.  On checking, I found that Nebbiolos age the best of all.  For some reason, my 9-year old wine looked  and tasted like it was only 2 or 3 years old.  And I opened this bottle a week ago.  The  final pour was as good as the first. 

At the end of the meal I thought about what I should watch on the telly with the remainder of this Pinot Noir.  A rock concert came to mind.  I settled on either the Rolling Stones or Elton John.  I've never seen the Stones in person, but I've already viewed most of their best performances.  Of all the coincidencies I saw Elton John in Honolulu in 2011, the year of that Pinot Noir.  

Rotten Tomatoes audiences gave The Million Dollar Piano a rating of 80%.  This 2 hours and 35 minutes long program selected the best of his two Las Vegas concerts held at The Colosseum Caesars Place in 2012, close enough to 2011.  He played all his hits, except for Candle in the Wind, his most popular, listed as #2 to Bing Crosby's White Christmas.

The Million Dollar Piano came from Yamaha and, apparently, did cost a million dollars.  But he has long been extravagant:

While it seems like a lot for a piano, Elton John is no stranger to balling out with his massive net worth. At his peak he was reportedly spending over $2 million a month on his lifestyle. He owns mansions in England, The United States, Italy and France. He has dozens of cars, and sold 20 at Christie's Auction, saying he's never got the chance to drive them. He is a huge art collector and is said to have one of the biggest photograph collections in the world. He is also loves flowers, so much so that he would always send fresh flowers to family and friends and was spending over $200,000 per month on flowers alone. He even once filled up a private jet with fresh flowers just for a flight.

The Blue Revolution began in 1991:

In 1991, I co-authored a presentation on the Blue Revolution by Hawaii Senator Richard Matsuura (left) to the The First Very Large Floating Structures Conference held in Honolulu.  

In 1992 Senator Dan Inouye (right) published in SEA TECHNOLOGY The American Blue Revolution.  During this period, Joseph Vadus and I co-chaired a workshop in Kona, where the participants came to a conclusion that a 100,000 square foot (one hectare) floating platform could be built for $500 million, half the cost of one B-2 bomber, with a target date of the Year 2000.

A countdown of the top 100 hits of 1991 from 100 to 1 in ten minutes.  I leave you with a photo from my lanai:


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