COVID-19: The Science

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

DAY           USA   WORLD  Brazil  India South Africa

May     13    1772     5314

            14    1715     5317
            15    1595     5072
            16    1218     4360
            17      865     3618
            18    1003     3445
            19    1552     4589
            20    1403     4685
            21    1418     4934         1188     150         30
            22    1293     5252           966     142         28
            23    1036     4183           965     142         10
            24      617     2826           703     156         22
            25      505     3096           806     148         52
            26      774     4048         1027     172         43

Summary:

• Not a good day for Humanity.  Worse, the regions with a total population of 3.4 billion are finally showing serious signs of local outbreaks:
• South America is becoming the next hot spot.
• India/Pakistan/Bangladesh loom as the next.
• Africa remains worrisome.
• Most of South America and much of Africa are in the southern hemisphere, where June means December.
• These areas represent 44% of the World.

• FACE SHIELD

• It was two months ago when I ordered a face shield from Amazon.com.  Sure, I was competing with frontline workers, but I'm old and also deserved to get one.
• Six weeks later I complained to Amazon, and they said it's not their fault, I had to contact the source.  So I did.
• It thus turned out not to be an issue, for my shield did not arrive until last week. 
• My jihad for a face mask was driven by my fear that a face mask was not sufficient, for the virus can enter through the eyes. 
• Funny, but almost no one agreed with me but doctors and nurses working in the ER.  
• Then I recently noticed that these warriors facing the coronavirus all day had half the incidence of the ailment than the general population of New York.  Had to be the face shield.
• Today, the morning paper (Star Advertiser, pg A14) had an article detailing why a face shield was a better way to open up the economy.
• Singapore will provide face shields to preschool students and staff when they return next month.
• In Pennsylvania and California, this option is also being introduced.
• You touch your face more when you wear a mask.  You can't touch your face with a shield.
• Face shields are good for a very long time.
• Amazon.com has a variety of face shields, some for less than $5.  I'm not guaranteeing you'll get one if three days.

Wednesday is science day, so I will educate you on this novel coronavirus:  

• The one causing the current pandemic is scientifically called COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2.  
• The first coronavirus developed anywhere from 10,000 to 300 million years ago.  Clearly, scientists don't know exactly when.

• Also is responsible for MERS, SARS and some common colds.
• Many came from bats (right, the Wuhan type).
• Other types also derive from rodents (two which cause the common cold).

• Also an origin is a scaly anteater called the pangolin.  See that animal to the right?
• Sometimes, as in SARS, there is a transfer animal:  bat to civet to human.
• Typically a cough where a hundred or more of these virus cells getting into your mouth and throat initiates the process.

• The reason why some get sicker than others has a lot to do with the how your body and circumstances allow this intruder to invade your lungs.  
• In the throat or nose and your sense of smell and taste is affected.  The SARS virus generally stopped here, but the mortality rate was 10%, a hundred times worse than the seasonal flu.
• I'm tossing in this graphic here for those who really want to know more, which you can only read if you go to the original Nature site.  
• If they can find their way into your lungs, then the worst begins.  Pneumonia can lead to a ventilator.  If you get this far and you are old, your chances of survival are less than 50:50.  While early studies thought that 90% of everyone on a ventilator died, more recent mortality looks like "only" 25% to 50%.  Age and pre-conditions worsen the statistics.

• A robust immune response can stop the virus, but sometimes there is an overreaction of the immune system, which worsens the condition.
• If the infection then gets into the blood, other organs will be impacted.

• Something known as a cytokine storm syndrome can further lead to multiple organ failure.
• Early on, the current virus was thought to kill 3.4% of patients.  Now because of asymptomatic cases and more testing, the speculation is that the mortality rate will be less than 0.4%.  But age is an important factor.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

• Truths about COVID-19:
• There are no drugs licensed for treatment and prevention.
• Adding pepper to your meals does not prevent or cure.
• Not transferred by houseflies and mosquitos.
• Drinking alcohol does not help.
• 5G mobile networks do not spread the disease.
• Exposing yourself to the sun or temperatures higher than 25C does not help.
• Holding your breath for 10 seconds or more does not mean you are not infected.
• Can be transmitted in hot climates.
• Cold weather does not kill the coronavirus.
• A hot bath does not affect the disease.
• Hand dryers or UV lamps do not help prevent the virus.
• Pneumonia vaccination does not make you immune to this disease
• Rinsing your nose with a saline solution does not help.
• Garlic does not prevent infection.
• Antibiotics are for bacterial ailments.

There are more, but this is a list that gets most asked.

The year 1995:

• Aum Shinrikyo gases Tokyo subways with Sarin, killing 13 and injuring 5,510.  Eleven of the group were hanged in 2018.
• Timothy McVeigh (right) and Terry Nichols explode a bomb in Oklahoma City, killing 168.  McVeigh executed in 2001.  Nichols shares Bombers Row in Colorado with Ramzi Yousef, Eric Rudolph and Ted Kaczynski.

• The Dalai Lama proclaims 6-year old Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th reincarnation.  The Chinese government places him in custody and kept under wraps.  Just last week an announcement was made that Gedhun graduated from college and has a stable job.

• Saddam Hussein warns Iraq has biological and nuclear weapons.
• Sony introduces PlayStation.
• Million Man March in DC led by Louis Farrakhan, leader of the Nation of Islam.
• Bombay now known as Mumbai.
• Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin assassinated in Tel Aviv.
• Population of the World up to 5.7 billion.  Today, 7.6 billion.

Best hits of 1995...in 2 hours and 11 minutes.  In 3 minutes the best song each year from 1995 to 2015.  Watch out, next year, 1996, came The Macarena, while 1997 had Candle in the Wind.

To close on this day of education, words to improve your vocabulary.

I knew only one.

As you must know by now, the Space Shuttle launch by SpaceX was scrubbed because of the weather.  One of the problems was that the second ocean storm of the year, Bertha, made landfall over the path of the rocket, far north of the launch site.  Interestingly enough, read about Endeavour's cancellation in 2011, the year of the last previous attempt.  Like that delay, Crew Dragon with NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, will suffer through a three-day delay.  Thus, Saturday is now the new date to get them to the International Space Station.

Elon Musk's Spacex has a $2.6 billion contract for 6 launches.  Boeing has one worth $4.2 billion, but they have had more problems.  My question is why?  Space endeavors became obsolete with the end of the Cold War.  NASA plans to crash the International Space Station back to Earth some time in this decade, and we've already been to the Moon.  Mars?  Cost?  $500 billion. Why?  Someday, perhaps in the next century, and surely by the next millennium, but there is no real purpose today when there are more urgent problems like global warming to solve.

Let me end with a lamentable contrariety:  the day the USA experienced our 100,000th COVID-19 death, the  Dow Jones jumped 553 points.

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