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Thursday, June 18, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 7)

The following continues the excerpting of Chapter 2 from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. The previous episode provided the backdrop of something I called The M Curse.


Origins of the Curse

There is, of course, no such thing as a curse. However, in attempting to pull together the threads forming the fabric representing one of the greatest achievements attained by the University of Hawaii, one can’t help but notice the significance and preponderance of “M’s,” that is, people whose last names started with an M. I call it a curse because many M’s died for the cause.

There was, of course, U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, whose authorship of bills ranging from peace to hydrogen to ocean thermal energy conversion, set the stage for the NSF MarBEC (National Science Foundation Marine Bioproducts Engineering Center). His administrative assistant in Washington, D.C., Cherry Matano, ran the office with a velvet hammer, and, in ways she did not realize, contributed to the foundation of the curse, or opportunity. Both Matsunaga and Matano have now passed away, but not in any way related to this subject matter.

Professor Akira Mitsui was a University of Tokyo graduate who married a citizen of the United States, and thus, eventually ended up teaching at the University of Miami. He became director of the International Research Center for Marine Bioscience and Technology on that campus. We met at various technical gatherings and formed a good relationship. “Pat, Pat, he screamed late one night (it was early in the morning his East Coast time) to me on a call, Nejat is trying to steal my money.” By the 1990’s I had chaired the Secretary of Energy’s Hydrogen Technical Panel and the 1990 World Hydrogen Energy Conference, and had gained a reputation as one who could help people in need, especially in hydrogen related matters.


At any university, the leader of a national grant is faced with a myriad of shortfalls, and virtually his only option is to tax the people doing the research. Generally, this director was instrumental in securing the funds, so he had a rightful imperative. I, of course, tried to help by reaching Professor Nejat Veziroglu, Director of the Clean Energy Research Institute, and usually ended up commiserating with him on the agony of research administration, but the wonderful promise of hydrogen. But Professor Mitsui felt I did the best I could, for the all the funds were not, in fact, stolen. It never is. I get so much credit for doing nothing.

Professor Mitsui collected, and fiercely protected, a large number of marine microorganisms, mostly from the Caribbean. An influential post-doctoral (a one to two year period that many technical researchers devote after obtaining a doctorate to better prepare them for the real world) student of Mitsui’s in the early 1980’s was Tadashi Matsunaga, who went on to become editor of the Journal of Marine Biotechnology, dean of the College of Engineering at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology and might well be now headed towards the presidency. I spent a sabbatical period on Matsunaga’s Koganei campus during a crucial period just after we were notified of the NSF MarBEC award. Professional Matsunaga also, earlier, spent some time in Hawaii, and was the first International Professor for the Blue Revolution.

Professor Shigetoh Miyachi, a fellow student with Matsui at Todai (Tokyo University), after a fruitful University of Tokyo career, left academia in the late 1980’s to become the director of the Japan Marine Biotechnology Institute (MBI). Professor Miyachi, then, was the foremost world authority in marine biotechnology, and, as will later be described, was an important partner in the formation of MarBEC. He came to the first PICHTR biohydrogen workshop earlier mentioned. Both Matsunaga and Miyachi served as the first two editors of the Journal of Marine Biotechnology.

Dr. Jun Miyake was a prominent biotechnologist in the Japan Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) at Tsukuba. I met him in the early 80’s at a Beijing gathering chaired by Professor Veziroglu. I’m tempted to acronymize “the early 80’s” into TE80’s because this term will be used a lot—for pieces of the MarBEC puzzle all formed in that period—but won’t.

Professor Kazuhisa Miyamoto of Osaka University post-doc’d at the University of California in the early 80’s, joining a team supervised by another young researcher, John Benemann, who as of this writing, is completing our overview draft on biohydrogen. Miyamoto in the nineties served as the lead scientist in a visiting review group sent by MITI to evaluate the potential of a joint Japan-U.S. venture in marine biotechnology. You will note that all these individuals have names starting with M. The eerie thing is that I'm not leaving any Japanese colleagues out. These were the individual who played the key roles for MarBEC

Unknown to me during this formative early ‘80s period was a threesome at the Engineering Directorate of the National Science Foundation: Oskar Zaborsky, Harvey Blanch and Lynn Preston. No M’s here, but, what is a curse without a conspiracy. All three were keys to the MarBEC success story: Zaborsky, at the University of Hawaii, was the principle investigator; Blanch became chairman of the University of California at Berkeley Chemical Engineering Department and deputy director of MarBEC; and Lynn Preston served as the NSF coordinator for the Engineering Research Center, from which MarBEC was funded. A cold case can be made that these three, with their Japanese connections, planned and orchestrated a future Pacific engineering research center in marine biotechnology engineering to feature international cooperation. Is this legal? Call it incredible vision and careful planning.


On the other hand, perhaps MarBEC was all purely coincidental. This just goes to show that irrefutable evidence is not necessarily germane to cause and effect, just like there is no such thing as a curse. As I'm innocent in all this, I really don't know, but my sense is that this was just one of those circumstances when pieces of some earlier thought came together later by pure accident.

But back to that hypothetical Curse, the American side suffered. The original director of MarBEC, the very young Oskar Zaborsky then, had escaped with his family from East Germany around the time when the follow-on director, Alexander Malahoff, and his family left Russia at the end of World War II for New Zealand. Let’s see now, the Soviet Union and East Germany now had an inside track to American biotech secrets. No, that’s not the conspiracy or genesis for the curse, but, one can’t help but wonder if this similar experience affected their psychology, as we shall see. Lorenz Magaard also emigrated from Europe (West Germany), and his first connection to MarBEC was when, as acting dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, he signed the approval letter to hire Zaborsky, and, later, went on to serve as director of the MarBEC educational program under Malahoff, who had replaced Zaborsky.

Kenneth Mortimer was selected president of the University of Hawaii in 1992 during a period of declining budgets, because of poor economic conditions in the State. He was an “expert” at reducing expenditures, and became by the nature of the times and task a very unpopular president. However, he believed that marine biotechnology offered a promising hope for a future new industry in Hawaii, and his key contribution was that he overrode his staff by providing significant cost-matching. Had he not made this command decision, the school would not even have submitted the MarBEC proposal to NSF. While his mission was to cut the budget, he had the good sense to invest as necessary.

Kelton McKinley grew up in Ohio and found his way to Hawaii after he obtained a PhD in ecology from Michigan State University, and taught for a period at a small college in Maryland. At a low point of his career, while on the Porsche sales staff in Honolulu (yes, in desperation, he was trying to sell cars, and I don't think sold even one), I hired him to become the coordinator of the biohydrogen research effort at the University of Hawaii. He had a very high intelligence with the courage to try new things.


In academia, one cannot just hire anyone off the street. If any position opens up, or funds are secured to add staff, a selection committee is formed, and there is a range of Equal Employment Opportunity, gender equity and other factors that rightfully affect the process. The reality, though, is that the preferred person will be selected, with, maybe, some excessive paperwork made all that much more necessary. The process to hire professors, deans, directors, and especially presidents, is similar, and leaves much to be desired at public universities. What is the simple solution? I have none to offer.

Even if you have been dozing off, you should have noticed that virtually everyone thus far has had a last name starting with the letter M. The ingredients for the curse are being positioned, and all these M’s were influential in helping develop pre-MarBEC resources. To take some of the mystery away, as of this writing, as long as these Japanese citizens kept their primary household in their country, they not only survived, but flourished. The curse applied only to M’s in the United States. These seeds of “M” were thus germinating for at least a dozen years. (The next episode, double this length, entitled, "The M Curse Begins," will continue tomorrow as ETERNAL LIFE (Part 8). Akira Mitsui passes away early in this real life story, and Kelton McKinley not long thereafter.)

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The Dow Jones Industrials rose 58 to 8556, while world markets were mixed. Gold dropped $8/toz to $933, but crude oil remained above $70/barrel (see right).

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Tropical Storm Linfa at 45 MPH has formed a little more than 400 miles southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan, and is expected to pass between Taiwan and the Philippines this weekend. That tropical depression south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico could become Tropical Storm Andres in a day or two and move north to strike Mexico in a few days. Another disturbance seems to be organizing behind (south and east) it.

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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

COUNTRY#11: AZERBAIJAN


  • blue represents the need of Turkization;

  • green represents the need of Islamization;

  • red represents the need of modernization and progress, following the European example.

The Republic of Azerbaijan, once part of the Soviet Union, is bordered by Russia to the north, the Caspian Sea to the east, Iran to the south, and Georgia and Armenia to the west.
It is slightly smaller than the state of Maine and has a population of 8.2 million.
The capital is Baku, which has historically served as the posterchild for oil and war.
The great majority is Shi’a Muslim. 
GDP/capita is $5300.
 Azerbaijan is a member of the United Nations and participates as an observer at the Community of Democracies.

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Azerbaijan is linked to the ancient Persians, and its name is thought to be derived from the Persian phrase "Land of Fire," referring both to its petroleum deposits, known since ancient times, and to its status as a former center of the Zoroastrian faith. The country was conquered and converted to Islam by the Arabs in 642 AD. After centuries of prosperity, it was ravaged during the Mongol invasions, but regained strength due to its location astride major trade routes.

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The beginning of modern exploitation of oil in the 1870s led to a period of unprecedented prosperity and growth in the years before World War I. 

At the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, an independent republic was proclaimed, and Azerbaijan received recognition by the Allies as an independent nation in January 1920, which was soon terminated by the arrival of the Red Army, becoming a union republic of the U.S.S.R. in 1936. Azerbaijan declared its independence from the U.S.S.R. on August 30, 1991. 
 Ayaz Mutalibov became the country's first President.



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Leadership constantly changed due to elections, takeovers, irregularities, you name it. Ilham Aliyev won re-election on October 15, 2008, taking 88.7% of the vote in an election boycotted by the major opposition parties. Look for a dethroning soon because the human rights situation in the country remains abominous.



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Azerbaijan does have important oil reserves and a significant agronomic potential based on a wide variety of climatic zones. The national currency, the manat, is artificially stable and appreciates against the dollar to prevent inflation. 
The World Bank named Azerbaijan “Top Reformer” in its “Doing Business 2009” report, reflecting its significant efforts to simplify its domestic regulatory requirements.

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Azerbaijan faces serious environmental challenges from contaminated soil and water/air pollution. Over-fishing by poachers is threatening the survival of Caspian sturgeon stocks, the source of most of the world's supply of caviar.

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The United States is committed to aiding a transition to democracy in Azerbaijan and its formation of an open market economy through humanitarian aid. U.S. companies are involved in offshore oil development projects with Azerbaijan and have been exploring the emerging investment opportunities in Azerbaijan in other fields, such as telecommunications.

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The U.S. Embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan is at 83 Azadliq Prospect; tel. 994-12-98-03-35; fax 994-12-65-66-71. For the latest security information, the State Department web site athttp://www.travel.state.gov provides alerts and warnings. For additional information on international travel, see http://www.usa.gov/Citizen/Topics/Travel/International.shtml.

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For all the news in Azerbaijan go to Today.AZ. Learn about Nagorno-Karabakh or why 30 people (including women and children) attempted to commit suicide today.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 4 to 8497, and so did most of world markets. If you jumped on board with me when Ford was 1.9, an article today casts ominous doubts about their competitiveness. Ford today closed at 5.71, but will it go up (five years ago it was triple this value) or sink? Oil remained above $70/barrel and gold rose $6/toz to $940.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 6)

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 2 from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:  
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THE M CURSE

To make a very long story short, in 1997 we finally were awarded the National Science Foundation Marine Bioproducts Engineering Center—MarBEC—one of my grandchildren. But to best appreciate the promise and tragedy, I need to go back to the beginning. Let me share one person’s view of the elements that had to be put in place to establish the groundwork to bring to the middle of the Pacific, at the University of Hawaii, a National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center (NSF ERC), one of the most coveted jewels in academia, for involved was funding of $5 million/year for ten years, or more, in an emerging technology to bring supreme eminence in the field for the selected university, while boosting economic development for the community and nation. Selection as the NSF ERC designated your institution as the national, if not world, leader in that particular technology, and provided the foundation to initiate a new industry in your state.

 

So, let us analyze what went right and wrong, for both the development and demise can teach lessons for the next generation. Also, MarBEC, as some visions do, and, perhaps, livings things too, morphed into another biotech center which might not have otherwise attained any kind of reality. More and more, I’m beginning to visualize what appears to be a great grandchild. So is this a tragedy? Of course not. A curse? Yes, maybe still, but, seriously, there is no such thing as a curse.

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The Dow Jones Industrials further dropped 107 to 8504 and world markets also mostly fell.  Oil remained above $70/barrel and oil rose $3/toz to $934.

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There remains some weather disturbance south of Baha.

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Monday, June 15, 2009

ON TWITTER AND THE COST OF RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY

A few items caught my attention today:
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1. The 15June09 issue of TIME reported that from April 2008 to April 2009, GOOGLE increased visitorship 9% (121 million to 132 million), facebook 217% (22.5 million to 71 million) and twitter 1298% (1 million to 17 million). Clearly, something is happening with twitter, and you can gain a clue by clicking on "How Twitter Will Change The Way We Live."
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2. Matthew Wald (New York Times) reported in Scientific American the relative cost of power:
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Cost of electricity to U.S. residential consumers--11 cents/kWh
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Wind power--------------------------------------6.1-8.4 cents/kWh
--------------------------------(but transmission costs could be high)
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Geothermal power-------------------------------6.2-7.6 cents/kWh
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Solar thermal (trough)--------------------------19.9 -28.1 cents/kWh
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Solar Photovoltaic-------------------------------46.9-70.5 cents/kWh
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The shocker is the high cost of solar electricity. I've tended to recently use for solar thermal 10 cents/kWh from Southern California utility reports and for photovoltaics 20 cents/kWh. I was too low by a factor of two or three.
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Wind power looks good, and the big advantage of geothermal is that it is baseload. SHOULDN'T HAWAII TAKE A MORE PROGRESSIVE VIEW OF THIS OPTION? As at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority, instead of treating and dumping the hot effluents in wells, this fluid can serve to initiate new industries, as proven in the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute's Community Geothermal Applications Program more than three decades ago.
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The Solar Thermal Global Pricemark Indices range from 21 cents/kWh (industrial, but 45 cents/kWh for a cloudy climate) to 37 cents/kWh (residential, but 80 cents/kWh for a cloudy climate). Best as I can tell, the solar system is the overall average of all types.
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Clearly, I will need to re-look at my earlier comparative assumptions. He did not mention conventional generation, but most references seem to use something between 4-8 cents/kWh for both coal and nuclear. However, my Huffington Post article of earlier this year reported that new nuclear powerplants (if they ever get built) and coal with carbon dioxide recapture would today cost from 15 cents/kWh to 30 cents/kWh.
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Hawaii, of course, suffers from much higher costs, for we use oil to generate most of our electricity. During the peak of prices last year, Hawaiian Electric charged more than 30 cents/kWh. Last month was exactly half that, 15 cents/kWh. Thus, we pay anywhere from 35% to 300% more than the U.S. average for electricity, and just accept it. People tend to complain about our higher price of gasoline, but the fact of the matter is that we pay just 10% more (U.S.=$2.70/gallon and Hawaii = $3/gallon--see table at right).
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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk 200 points in the first hour, and just sort of stayed there, down 187 to 8612, due to recession fears and geopolitical factors. World markets all dropped, and so did gold (minus $10/toz to $929) and oil (fell below $70/barrel, but recovered to $70.47).
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Saturday, June 13, 2009

SIMPLE SOLUTION FOR CRIME: THREE STRIKES AND YOU'RE DEAD

Part 1, the background, of this two part series, can be found in my June 11th posting of the Huffington Post. This is one of those truly controversial matters that might best be left unsaid. However, if the January 1939 issue of TIME can picture Adolph Hitler on the front cover, I thought I'd likewise offer this subject for discussion.Anyway, I'm still unsure how I entered this territory, but I guess it was the unfolding of a solution for crime that just developed as I wrote Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. By the way, the real cover used on January 2. 1939 was:


Let me come straight to this simple solution to crime: Three Strikes and You're Dead (TSAYD)! To repeat, THREE STRIKES AND YOU'RE DEAD. Let me remind you (as underscored in both SIMPLE SOLUTION books) that simple solutions are rarely simple.






First conviction: Someone commits a crime. Do everything possible to reform the misguided individual. One remediative option is restorative justice, promoting repair, reconciliation and the rebuilding of relationships. The process attempts to build partnerships, seeking balanced approaches for victim, wrongdoer and community. There will be a lot of counseling and, as necessary and possible, some restitution.





New Zealand legislated in 1989 restorative justice for juvenile crime. Then, there were 64 violations per 1,000 in the population. Today, this figure has dropped to 16.





The concept is hardly new, as the Pentateuch, the so-called books of Moses, advocated compensation for property crimes, as did the Code of Hammurabi (1700 BC). The Code of Ur-Nammu (2000 BC) required amends for violence.





Spend the bigger bucks on shoring up the early life (as underscored in Part 1), but be generous, too, on reclaiming this individual after a tolerable first offense. The primary objective will be to prevent those potential second and third crimes. Half of all inmates are back in jail only two years later. A simple way to reduce this rate is to strike fear into the offender so that he abandons all thought of committing another crime. Thus, the penalty for entering stage two should be terrible, if not horrendous.





Crime #2 is committed and the defendant is judged guilty. Standard prison? Nope. Save your tax monies to build better school systems. Find some hellacious environment where the prisoner will need to support himself, and where the cost to society will be minimal. A mild form -- I was thinking more in terms of dungeons or caves -- of this concept is represented by Joe Arpaio, sheriff of Maricopa Arizona County:





1. jail meals, such as a bologna sandwich, costs 40 cents/serving, and he charges inmates for them;





2. no smoking, no coffee and no porno magazines;





3. chain gangs to do free work on county projects; and





4. took away cable TV, but was forced to put them back because a federal court required that for jails, so he played only the Disney and weather channels, and added Newt Gingrich lectures.





When inmates complained, he told them don't come back. Two thousand prisoners in tents with no air conditioning, even when the temperature is more than 116 degrees F. Sheriff Joe says that our soldiers in Iraq are in tents where the temperature exceeds 120, in full battle gear.





The question is, will those who survive be more apt not to return? The answer is, heck, yes, but mostly because of the consequences of a third conviction! Anyway, why waste good money on the hopeless, which is defined as anyone who is stupid enough to commit a second crime knowing that the punishment will be hell. The prison of Sheriff Joe is a reasonable simple solution for strike two. There are harsher, and probably more effective (but illegal and immoral) options, but for now, let us leave them for future consideration.





Third conviction: termination! Yes, death. The U.S. has now had more than 1,000 executions since the Supreme Court ended a moratorium three decades ago. The transition will be messy, but under the TSAYD formula, this number could seriously increase in the first few years, but should decline with time. The odds are astronomically high that crime rates will significantly drop within the decade. Where are the supporting statistics? Probably none exists. I just feel this way.





Oh yes, there are millions of questions and issues. What about a white collar criminal or traffic violator? Can you execute someone for stealing a chocolate chip cookie or a magazine? You've no doubt read of a car thief, who is convicted, convicted mind you, dozens of times (well, I'm not sure what the record is, and I can't imagine our court system being so efficient as to actually convict the same person so many times), and still somehow runs loose and is arrested for stealing yet another car. Maybe enough should be three convictions for anything. Under the TSAYD system, the odds are high that this will all stop after the first arrest.





But what about those dependent on drugs who cannot control themselves or the few so idiotic as to commit that third crime? Answering this question will only irritate churches, social workers, the American Civil Liberties Union and mothers.





Then, there is that matter of mental illness. A Bureau of Justice Statistics study reported in 2006 that half of those in jail suffered from mental health problems, especially those convicted three or more times. Sounds menacingly Hitleresque, but perhaps an argument can be made that the elimination of this drag on society would only improve the quality of life for the productive and innocent. Former Education Secretary William Bennett, on his radio show, is quoted to have said:





To reduce crime, you could -- if that were your sole purpose -- you could abort every black baby in this country, and your crime rate would go down...That would be an impossible, ridiculous and morally reprehensible thing to do, but your crime rate would go down.





He said his statement was taken out of context, and TSAYD definitely falls in this category.





Could a "Three Strikes and You're Dead" law ever be enacted anywhere in the world today? I hope not. But let me suggest that the concept be debated and considered, for, perhaps, a compromising intermediary first step might well be a more universal application of the Sheriff Joe penal system. However, after considerable public anguish, I would not be surprised if something a lot more draconian, but justified, actually is attempted. What somewhat worries me (because I am compassionate, honestly), though, is that many of my friends in casual conversation, with few exceptions, actually like the notion of TSAYD.





Thus, the nature of our present culture, could well be the primary impediment to ending crime forever. This could well be the legacy of our imperfect, but reasonably mature, society.



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Eighty five countries have now visited this blog site: 2307-190-85



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Friday, June 12, 2009

WHY A NATIONAL HEALTH PLAN MIGHT MAKE SENSE

My chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity delves into eternal life and your health in general. I've always been somewhat concerned about the prospects of a national health plan, but Michael Moore's SICKO, seemed to minimize my concerns. Now, an ECONOMIST article, entitled, Life is expensive, has almost convinced me that we do need a national health plan.



Here is what that piece underscored:



1. The following table should be obvious: Americans spend as much as twice the amount on health spending as a percent of the Gross Domestic Product than developed nations with higher life expectancies.




2. While almost the entire world qualifies for some health plan, 46 million Americans don't.



3. We spend so much money on our health because:



....a. We love new medical technology, which is very, very expensive.


....b. Our doctors need to pay exorbitant rates for insurance because our judicial system favors the plaintiff. Half of malpractice suits are gobbled up by lawyers and overheads. This remains a growth industry for many attorneys.


....c. Our laws allow employees to offer health insurance with tax benefits, while individuals do not qualify.


....d. Thus, those insured only pay 15% of the total bill, and, just to be safe, almost always agree to anything the doctor recommends.


....e. However, some industries got caught in this shuffle, as GM, for example, spends more on health insurance than on steel.


....f. The stagnation of incomes can be attributed to health-care inflation, as our wages have been reduced by 8% due to these health costs.


....g. Private medical insurers will probably be wiped out over time because the government will simply offer lower rates.


....h. Kaiser Permanente will do okay.


....i. Americans pay 50% more for pills (same drugs).


....j. Drug companies already see the writing on the wall, as Merck has merged with Scherin-Plough, Pfizer with Wyeth and Roche with Genentech. They are cutting costs in advance of the inevitable.


....k. A sum of $19 billion will be provided to digitize medical records. Only 4% of American doctors have a fully functioning system.




Clearly, then, private insurers, drug companies, the American Medical Association and Republicans (because they get a lot of campaign contributions because they promote less government) will fight the Obama health plan to the bitter end. They will lose because the benefits are so obvious.  This is a Democrats versus Republicans issue where the Democrats have the numbers to prevail.



On the other hand, global warming is a whole another issue, as your immediate health is not at stake. But more importantly, there are a lot more Democratic senators from coal states than you think.  Thus, there are enough Democrats to side with the Republicans to make compromise necessary.  The result, if any, will be a tepid cap and trade law that will be worse than useless. We need a serious carbon tax, and we need it now!



I leave with a joke, I guess, from that ECONOMIST article:
I'm afraid we'll have to remove your wallet.


I trust the ECONOMIST won't mind my using their info, as I'm just promoting their viewpoint.
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The Dow Jones Industrials rose 28 to 8799, finally exceeding the 8776 of December 31, 2008. However, January 1, 2009 saw a rise to 9034. Let's see if Monday can show similar optimism. World markets mostly dropped, as did gold, minus $17/toz to $939, and oil, to $72/barrel.


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That area of disturbance 850 miles southwest of Baja California remains active, but continues to be poorly organized.


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Thursday, June 11, 2009

KING KAMEHAMEHA DAY

Hawaii is the only location that celebrates this holiday in honor on the first ruler of the Hawaiian Kingdom, King Kamehameha I, who was born on February 1758, November 1737, or May 1, 1738.  Yes, historians are not sure.  The 1758 year is popular because Hawaiian legend prophesied the appearance of a comet, and that was the year Halley’s Comet appeared.  Speculating on activities over time, the earlier dates look more likely.

 

He was born of Kohala aliis, and at the age of 14 lifted the Naha Stone (now positioned in front of the Hilo Public Library), somewhat reminiscent of King Arthur and his Excalibur, as there was another legend that this warrior would unite the islands. This he did, but not quite by battle.  Starting from the Big Island, he somewhat easily conquered all the islands by 1795 using muskets and cannons, save for Kauai and Niihau.  Invasions continued to fail until sandalwood merchants stepped in to preserve their trade by convincing Kaumualii, alii nui of Kauai, to negotiate a peace.  Thus Kamehameha the Great in 1810 emerged as the first King of Hawaii.

 

His reign was indeed successful and many books have been written of his rule and the system he established.  His late years were spent where the King Kamehameha Hotel is now located, where the Iron Man World Triathalon starts and finishes in Kailua-Kona.  He died on May 18, 1819, and to this day his resting place remains a mystery. King Kamehameha Day was first proclaimed by King Kamehameha V, his grandson, in 1871. This monarchy continued until 1898 when Hawaii was annexed by the United States.

 

Interesting that this holiday is a holiday, for nothing much is happening today.  However, festivities began on Kauai on May 30 in Lihue with a floral parade and on the Big Island yesterday for Ka ‘Ahu Lei ‘O Kamehameha  at the Wailoa State Park statue site in Hilo

 On the island of Oahu:

 

  -  Friday, June 12, 3:30 P.M. -Music by the Royal Hawaiian Band at Ali`iolani Hale, as a prelude to the statue decoration ceremonies (see photo above)

  -  Saturday, June 13, 9:30 A.M. - 93rd Annual King Kamehameha Celebration Floral Parade, beginning at King and Richards Streets and ending at the Queen Kapiolani Park, where festivities begin at 9 AM.

To follow will be the 36th Annual King Kamehameha Hula Competition at the Neal S. Blaisdell Center Arena from 6PM on June 26, continuing on Saturday at 1PM.

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The Dow Jones jumped +144, then declined to +32, to settle at 8771.  Gold went up $3/toz to $956 and crude oil remained above $72/barrel.

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There remains the potential for storm development south and west of Baha.

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Oh, by the way, that Swine Flu Pandemic was declared today by the World Health Organization.  See my views on this subject below.

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

THE SWINE FLU (Part 4)




This is my fourth posting on the swine flu.  My first occurred on April 24.  I'm doing this again because the Honolulu Advertiser this morning featured an article with a large headline at the top of page 3, WHO may declare swine flu pandemic.

This article by Frank Jordans of the AP reported that the World Health Organization is poised to announce the first flu pandemic in 41 years.  Pardon me, but didn't Director-General Margaret Chan (photo at top) on April 29 already raise the pandemic level from level 4 to 5?  The answer is yes.  What Jordans meant, I'm sure, was that WHO will soon, because of a spike in Australian swine flu cases, increase the level to the highest possible:  6.  Australia is now up to 1200 cases...but not one person has died!  Are they tough or what.

The final paragraph of Jordans' piece ends with:

"The writing has been on the wall for weeks," said Chris Smith, a flu virologist at Cambridge University, adding he didn't know why WHO had waited so long to declare a pandemic. "WHO probably doesn't want people to panic, but the virus is now unstoppable."

Who is Chris Smith, anyway...and UNSTOPPABLE?  For the record, let's see where we are on the swine flu.  H1N1 Swine Flu cases are now up to 26,563 (590/day since first observed in Mexico), with 140 deaths (3 deaths/day).  The death rate per day has not changed much from a month ago.  I posted an article in the Huffington Post last week entitled, "A Pandemic Worse than the Swine Flu."  I wasn't exactly poking fun at the swine flu, nor the attitude of WHO, but please read that contribution and let me know your views.

Anyway, here is a quote from my above HuffPo posting:

1. The regular flu kills one in a thousand, while the swine flu seems closer to one in a hundred. That previous avian flu of a decade ago has a 60% mortality rate, but it is not all that contagious. The fear is that the swine flu will morph into a more dangerous form. The potential of this happening is very low, and, in any case, it is appearing that all 50 or so variations might turn out to be treatable with one vaccine. So, certainly, continue the vigilance and spend my tax dollars to develop a common vaccine, but don't close down countries and schools, and, by the way, tourists can safely return to Mexico and Hawaii.

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2. The numbers are embarrassingly obvious. Since the so-called epidemic was announced only a little more than a month ago, we have had about 500 cases and 3 deaths a day. I wouldn't want to be one of those statistics, but consider that a million people daily contract some form of flu and at least a thousand die, every day, usually from complications (heart, pneumonia, etc.). This terrifying swine flu is thus hardly detectable noise. I might further add that traffic fatalities number 3000/day, but we drive on.

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Can anyone who is reading this blog please comment and tell me what the really big deal is about this current swine flu? 

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 24 to 8739, but world markets were more up than down.  Gold settled $3/toz to $953 and oil continued to march up, now at $71.87/barrel

By the way, I sold GMGMQ today from $1.66, providing a 20% profit over the past two weeks.
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There seems to be a weather disturbance forming south and west of the Baha tip.  Nothing serious yet.
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Tuesday, June 9, 2009

COUNTRY #10: AUSTRIA


The Austrian flag has been around for 800 years, with the white standing for peace and honesty, and red for hardiness, bravery, strength and valour.

The Republic of Austria is slightly smaller than Maine, with 8.3 million people. More correctly, it is a federal parliamentary democracy, and voting begins at the age of 16. The capital is Vienna. Ninety percent speak German and about a quarter is Roman Catholic.

The GDP/capita is $39,200 (or as high as $45,000, depending on source). Austria actually has proven oil and natural gas reserves, but imports almost ten times more oil than it exports and five times more natural gas.

The Federal President is Heinz Fischer. As it is part of the European Union, the Euro is used. The internet country code is “at.” Both genders serve for 6 months of active duty and 8 years of reserve service. Drug transshipment is a concern.
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Austrian history dates back to 976, when Leopold von Babenberg became the ruler of much of present-day Austria. In 1276 Rudolf I became the first Habsburg to ascend to the throne, and the Habsburgs ruled Austria for nearly 750 years.

In 1938 Germany sent its military forces into Austria and annexed the country, an action that received enthusiastic support among most Austrians. The great majority of the 200,000 Jewish population of the country was murdered or forced into exile. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, greater attention was given in many countries to unresolved issues from World War II, such as this one. Since 1994, Austria has committed to providing victims and heirs some $1 billion in total compensation.


Last year, the far right gained 29% of the vote, and the most charismatic of the lot is 39-year old Heinz-Christian Strache, the leader of the Freedom party. Perhaps a Neo-Nazi, Islam, he says, is the fascism of the 21st century, that many immigrants need to be deported and is known to mock gays. A former dental technician, he is the new poster boy of Europe's extreme right. Oh, Hitler was born in Austria, but the country is also famous for apfelstrudel, Pez candy, Red Bull, Mozart, Strauss, Freud and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials went up 1; today, it dropped 1, to 8763. World markets were mixed. Gold rose $1/toz to $955. Oil finally finished the day above $70/barrel. Well, Fereidun’s $40/bbl prognostication might fall short by a factor of two.
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Oh, I must report on my GM adventure. To recap, I bought GM at $1.38/share a week before bankruptcy. I held it to the bitter end, hoping something would happen. Well, the company went bankrupt and I thought I got wiped out. But, to my shock, the stock became GMGMQ, and just today, shot up to $1.50/share. I thus sold, and made a few bucks in the process, because I had only bought it as a hedge against my Ford shares. But, primarily to maintain a sense of idiocy, I equally converted the resultant GMGMQ funds into SIRI, FRE and FNM, for this Ameritrade account is mostly to take ridiculous gambles...and, after nearly a decade, it is plus 20% or so, not much of an annual return, but better than the 20-40% loss many are experiencing.
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Monday, June 8, 2009

PEAK HUMANITY: 1998


If the doomsdayers are right, when did society begin to decline? Let me suggest 1998. Why?

- In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was signed (close enough to 1998).

- Bill met Monica, resulting in his impeachment, which Hillary labeled a “vast right-wing conspiracy.”

- Our U.S. Senate passed a resolution urging President Clinton to respond to the threat of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.

- The FDA approved Viagra.

- An antitrust suit was filed against Microsoft.

- This is the year I announced my retirement from the UH. Officially, it was the end of the following year. Yes, a decade ago.

- Charlton Heston became president of the NRA.

- The Catholic priest scandal unfolded.

- Russian banks collapsed and the world stock markets registered their second largest decline in history. However, our Federal government showed a surplus of $70 billion, the first in 29 years.

- Google was founded.

- Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. Now they have the Al Franken embarrassment.

- Sonny Bono skied into a tree and died.

Actually, not really an eventful year. However, based on 2009 dollars, oil reached a near all time low of $15.96/barrel in 1998, as compared to 1950 ($25.10/bbl), 1972 ($14.29/bbl), 1980 ($99.18/bbl) and around $70/bbl today, but surely to go up and up. I could have analyzed historical GDP/capita data and all those other parametric comparisons, but I’ll leave that to others. Yes, Humanity, perhaps, began to decline, maybe for good, in 1998. Blame the price of oil.
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After dropping 136, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered to plus 1 at 8764, but world markets almost all declined. Crude oil inched up to $68.65/barrel and gold eased down $1/toz to $954. Money Morning hints that we might be on the leading edge of a new bull market, or not.

Here is something really interesting. I thought my GM stocks were worthless when it went bankrupt. As I mentioned, I bought some shares the weekend before it went under, just as a hedge for Ford. Well, looks like GM is now GMGMQ and the value has actually come up recently, so I can actually still cash it in and not lose any money. Amazing! I called Ameritrade, and the person on the line said, who knows what will happen, but there is a chance that the price will go up further, but could also get zeroed out, as in the cases of United Air and Enron. I guess I'll hold on to see what happens.
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If you wondered what the photo was all about, it is just a 1998 gathering of a SETI group, for my chapter 4 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity hints that the answer to our destiny might well be streaming in from outer space.
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