THE USA IS 245 YEARS OLD

The oldest person in the world today is Kane Tanaka at the age of 118 years.  That's her when 20 in 1923. The USA is more than twice as old, for today we celebrate our 245th birthday.  Mind you, this is not particularly elderly, for the top six are:

• #1  Egypt  8000 years old
• #2  India  5300
• #3  Afghanistan  5000
• #4  China 4091
• #5  Georgia  3700
• #6  Ethiopia  3000  (their monarchy lasted more than 700 hundred years until 1974 when Haile Selassie was overthrown in 1974)
• the British monarchy is going strong at 1200 years
• so is the one in Japan for 2700 years

The USA is also not the first democracy.  Five thousand years ago Mesopotamia invented written language and had a primitive form of democracy.  Some say that around 3000 years ago India actually formed republics which practiced democracy.  Greece had that Athens versus Sparta rivalry 2600 years ago, where the story is that democratic Athens lost to war-like Sparta.  Turns out that Sparta might actually have been more democratic than Athens, as the latter blessed slavery.

Back in the USA, I hated history when I went to grade school, but I'm obligated to synthesize another regurgitation of how democracy came to be in the 1700's:

• There were 13 separate colonies and Great Britain kept laying on draconian taxes, so much so that in 1764 came the phrase "taxation with representation" as the rallying cry of outrage.
• In 1773, colonists disguised as Mohican Indians raided a British ship and dumped all the tea overboard to avoid paying taxes as the Boston Tea Party.
• At that time, if a ballot was held, the few extremists would have soundly lost the vote.

• 
  However, efforts like Thomas Paine's Common Sense began to intensify hostility towards the British.
• On the night of 18April1775, British troops marched to seize an arms cache in Concord, Massachusetts.  This is when Paul Revere and other riders sounded the alarm.
• Finally on 19April1775 battles erupted in Lexington and Concord, in the shot heard round the world, starting the Revolutionary War.

• 
  On 7June1775 the Continental Congress met in Philadelphia, and Thomas Jefferson of Virginia, John Adams of Massachusetts, Roger Sherman of Connecticut, Benjamin Franklin of Pennsylvania and Robert Livingston of New were appointed to draft a formal defection statement.

• On 4July1776 the assemblage adopted the Declaration of Independence, which was largely written by Jefferson.
• One of the drafters was prescient:

John Adams wrote to his wife Abigail that July 2 “will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival” and that the celebration should include “Pomp and Parade…Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other.”

• 1777 saw the British winning the war, but by the end of the year, the Battle of Saratoga turned the tide.
• France had been secretly aiding the American rebels and officially joined the Americans in 1778.

• 
  European officers Friedrich von Steuben and Marquis de Lafayette were instrumental leaders, but General Benedict Arnold defected to the British, and there was serious mutiny on the American side.
• Lord Cornwallis was particularly effective in crushing British victories in 1979 and 1980.

• 
  But the French helped with 36 warships, and the revolutionists won the Battle of Yorktown, forcing Cornwallis to surrender in 1981.
• More fighting, but in the Treaty of Paris on 3September1783, Great Britain formally recognized the independence of the United States, bringing an end to eight years of fighting.

• 
  Interestingly enough, the only two signatories to become president, Jefferson and Adams, both died on the same day, 4July1826, on the 50th anniversary of the Declaration.
• The U.S. remained neutral in the Napoleonic War, with the defeat of Napoleon by Wellington at the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 ending Napoleon's rule.  I still play Beethoven's Wellington's Victory whenever I have a major victory.
• 

  Yet, France gave the Statue of Liberty to the U.S. in 1885, to mostly recognize the end of slavery.  It took 21 years from conception to christening.  The 151-foot tall statue cost $250,000, paid for by the French.  The Pedestal at 154 feet, cost $270,000, and was covered by American sources.  The plaque of the poem by Emma Lazarus was added in 1903:

Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!’ cries she

With silent lips. ‘Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

• 
  Why are the national colors red, white and blue?  There is no consensus of how our first flag came to be, but most of the early history gave some credit to Betsy Ross, and the colors were red, white and blue.  Thus those colors, and a later enhancement of red for valor and bravery, white symbolizing purity and innocence, and blue signifying vigilance, perseverance and justice.

So what will you do today to celebrate our 244th birthday?  Me?  15 Craigside has a BBQ event and I'm co-grill master.  Then there is television:

• On PBS from 8-9:30PM EDT, the Capitol Fourth 2021 Concert and Fireworks Show.
• Hosted by Vanessa Williams.
• Featuring Jimmy Buffett, Renee Fleming, Gladys Knight, Pentatonix and others.
• 45th Macy's 4th of July Fireworks show
• Jonas Brothers, Blake Shelton, Coldplay, Reba McEntire and others.
• 8-10PM EDT on NBC.
• Boston Pops Spectacular Concert will stream on Bloomberg TV from 8-11PM EDT.
• 
  CNN's Fourth in American Special, from 7PM to Midnight EDT
• Beachboys, Billy Ray Cyrus, Black Eyed Peas, Brad Paisley, Chicago, Flo Rida, Foreigner, Kool & the Gang, REO Speedwagon, Trisha Yearwood, Hollywood Bowl Orchestra, all military bands, San Francisco Symphony and much more.
• Will highlight fireworks from coast to coast.

• 
  1000 guests have been invited to the White House.  
• President Joe Biden might address the matter of missing the 70% one-vaccination goal.  
• Turns out that this figure is 67%.  Not bad, actually.  
• 18 states (all voted for Biden) met the goal, with Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts at over 80%.  
• The worst is Mississippi at 46%.  
• Trump states missed.

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THE FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY FOR HAWAII AND THE WORLD

I post a lot about the Blue Revolution and hydrogen.  My early experience had mostly to do with:

• Biomass in 1962 at the Hutchinson Sugar Company on the Big Island.
• Then a decade later I joined the faculty of the University of Hawaii, and began a program to grow microalgae in a raceway to both produce biofuels and remediate global warming by feeding the equivalent of stack gases into the system. 

• 
  Soon thereafter, I became part of the Hawaii Geothermal Project, and in 1976 we succeeded in drilling the hottest (676 F) well in the world, which went on to generate 2.8 megawatts, a baseload power source that could supply electricity for 5000 homes.
• All those effluents were being discarded as an environmental nuisance, so I helped create Noi'i O Puna, or the Puna Research Center in 1985 to assist the private sector initiate new companies in a variety of agriculture, aquaculture and tourism activities.  This was the geo-equivalent of the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority on the other side of the island for ocean resources.

In the midst of all the above, in 1974 I went on my first University-sponsored trip, which perhaps was my most rewarding effort of this type ever.

• To quote:

The First Energy Crisis of 1973 triggered a meeting of ten engineering faculty members at the University of Hawaii, where we were asked to pick a topic from a list of ten.  I had the least seniority, and got stuck with wind energy, something certainly beyond the ken of a biochemical engineer.  I'm not sure if I even had ever seen a real windmill in my life.  

• 
  I saw that the hydrogen romantics were holding the first major hydrogen conference at the University of Miami, so that was my first stop.  This gathering created the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, leading me to later work for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in laser fusion, and in 1979 draft the original legislation that became the Matsunaga  Hydrogen Act.

• 
  Next, Lou Divone in DC, even before the Department of Energy was formed.  He served as the federal authority of windpower for decades.
• He didn't think Hawaii had any potential for this resource and proceeded to show me a table which indicated our winds were not particularly good.  However, these measurements were taken at airports.  I told him that our mountains amplified the wind speed and we had sites that were as good as anywhere.  
• So with some reluctance he said, okay, the next meeting of the Wind Power Division of the American Solar Energy Society was to occur in Boulder in a few days, so I should drop by and ask for help.
• In those days you could easily change plane flights, so I did go to Colorado.  Amazing what presence can do:

When I arrived at that session, the meeting had already started, so at one point I mentioned that I had just seen Lou Divone and he asked me to ask you for assistance.  When a field is just beginning, and, remember, this was 1974, no one knows much about the subject.  Half an hour later I was elected to become the next chairman of this division.  The current leader was Frank Eldridge, who had recently published Wind Machines.  I don't remember the details, but I somehow convinced Frank to come to Hawaii.  He and his wife did, and they helped us get started.

In 1979 I found myself working for Senator Spark Matsunaga, and, in addition to drafting the original bills for OTEC and hydrogen, one of my first activities was to work with Tom Gray on the national wind energy legislation, which went on to become law, as did those other two subjects.  He went on to found the American Wind Energy Association.  I never did do much with this field after I returned to the University of Hawaii in 1982, but I've long thought that the ocean around us was the best place to generate wind energy.

Six years ago I wrote:

Bewilderingly, our local community has killed the Superferry, diminished geothermal development, suffocated the Thirty Meter Telescope and scared off wind farm developers.  To quote myself:

All in all, though, while I still maintain a sense that I'm lucky to have been born here and can live out my life in this "Paradise," I worry that we have become a community attempting a return to the past rather than advancing into the future.  

Hawaii is gaining a reputation of a State that only says NO!

I went on further to say:

According to this source, Hawaii can produce all our electricity just with wind power.  There is no mention that major wind farms were announced for Molokai and Lanai, but local residents successfully scared away investors.

So more and more, any major wind energy project stumbled, mostly because local folks protested.

So why is a significant cross-section of our society against something like wind energy?  There is the Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) syndrome.  Then you add aesthetics, noise, religious feelings, threat to economy (hotels in the region of announced wind farms are afraid that the impression of high winds dissuades potential customers), bird kills (the Audubon Society is very active in fighting anything to do with wind power).  I was personally involved 40 years ago when all these forces came against us at hearings.  We then prevailed and were able to continue R&D and for early wind farms to be installed, but there is now an enough is enough attitude and people just don't want too much of what should be a good thing.

Would people here rather keep importing oil, or build a nuclear powerplant?  Of course not, and that is my problem with them.  What can be tapped to produce electricity?  Hawaii is blessed with ample winds...and most of this resource is located in the ocean around the islands.  Here are a few wind regime maps, mostly from Hawaiian Electric:

Again from six years ago:

• Anything green (14 MPH and higher mean speed) is fine for wind farms.
• As Hawaii's average cost of electricity is around 30 cents/kWh, while that of the nation is closer to 12 cents/kWh, any colored location is more than adequate for commercialization.
• Orange, Red and Maroon are absolutely fabulous.
• Purple, Orange and Blue are fantastic.  These power maps accentuate the attractiveness, for power increases with the CUBE of wind speed.*
• The two Oahu offshore sites will be located in those orange regimes for speed and blue for power. 

* Few realize how important this CUBE factor means.  A 20 MPH site can generate 8 times more power than a 10 MPH site!

The electricity rate for Hawaii is now a bit below 30 cents/kWh, while that of the USA is around 13 cents/kWh.

So earlier this week, the Star Advertiser had on the front page:

     Hawaii offshore wind farm development in doldrums

Again I quote from six  years ago:

• So why don't we put all wind turbines in the ocean?  Simple, they cost a lot more, for here are the total systems levelized cost (don't worry about what these numbers stand for...it's the relativity that counts):
• wind on land           80
• wind offshore        204
• solar PV                  130
• biomass                  103
• geothermal               48
• advanced nuclear     96
• natural gas               66
• coal                          96
• cleaner coal            147

Apparently, offshore costs have dramatically dropped:

The report finds that estimates for the cost of offshore wind energy in the U.S. are declining steeply. At an estimated $89 per megawatt-hour (MWh) reference point for fixed-bottom (not floating) foundation turbines, this year’s estimated cost of offshore wind energy is about 70% of what it was last year ($124/MWh), and about half as much as it was two years ago ($173/MWh).

Thus, it's no surprise that there has been a rapid rise of offshore wind farms.  The current largest is Hornsea 1 in the UK, generating 1218 MW.  A typical nuclear powerplant has about this capacity.  I've long lost count, but I think there are more than 60 offshore wind farms rated at least 200 MW.  The UK continues to surge, with four more of them larger than 1000 MW close to construction.  On average, Oahu uses about 1000 MW.

Where is the USA?  Well, we have two tiny ones near Block Island, Rhode Island, with 162 offshore wind farm projects in planning.  The Biden Administration just last week approved the Vineyard Wind project to install 84 turbines 12 miles off the coast of Martha's Vineyard to generate 800 MW of electricity.

Hawaii?  Notice in the above graph showing how the price has dropped that these are fixed-bottom facilities.  Hawaii has few such sites.  The ocean gets very deep very early when it comes to the Hawaiian islands.

Mind you, this bathymetric profile is great for OTEC.  In any case I've long felt that floating wind farms steered to move within certain gyres were ideal for Hawaii.  Then how do you get the electricity to land? 

The direct beaming of power from point to point is being developed by the space industry.  A long time ago I worked with Peter Glaser, who was the pioneer for this opportunity.   I suspect this option will not be practicable for a long time to come.

I have also suggested that hydrogen could be generated on these offshore wind farms, with a bladder in the ocean used to store the hydrogen, which can be towed to land for use.  One of my ideas is to develop the Hawaiian Hydrogen (H2) Clipper, a fast dirigible, which is actually now a project of Rinaldo Brutoco.  He is a good friend, and I wish him well. This air ship would bring passengers and freight to and from Hawaii, being re-fueled from these floating platforms.  Someday, an airport for hydrogen aviation will be built in Hawaii on one of these floating platforms.

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ALMOST EVERYONE SHOULD DRINK COFFEE

 

More than 98% of recent Hawaii COVID cases are among the unvaccinated.  Further:

“We know that the vaccines work. We know that it will keep you safe from the delta variant and any other strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” said Health Department Director Libby Char. “So it works. It is not impossible to get an infection after you get vaccinated, but if you do you are not likely to get severely ill from it, you are not likely to get hospitalized from it, and I think that’s what’s really important.”

Turns out that this would be expected, for of the 107,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations for May in the U.S., only 1,200 were vaccinated.  That is a percentage of 1.1%!!!.

• Better yet, of the 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May, only 150 were fully vaccinated. That translates to 0.8%.
• The U.S. deaths/day peak occurred in January at 3400/day.  This has been cut by more than a factor of 10 to 300/day.
• 53% of Americans are now fully vaccinated.  Arkansas is among the worst, only at 33%, and both cases and hospitalizations are rising.

More and more are getting the message that the best way to stay alive is to get vaccinated.  You can thus also travel, attend indoor sports games and otherwise have the peace of mind that enhances your lifestyle.

Another way to increase your longevity is to drink coffee.  Watch a video on this topic.

I can recall a good period of my life when alcoholic beverages and coffee were BAD for your health.  Was this turnaround orchestrated by company P.R., or did medical science step in for good reason to promote these drinks?   As best as I can determine, it was the latter.

Here are some of 20 good reasons to drink coffee (and a few will be new to you):

• 
  Two cups of coffee can cut post-workout muscle pain by up to 48%.
• Hard to believe this, but a cup of brewed coffee represents 1.8 grams of fiber, where the daily recommended intake is in the range of 20-38 grams.
• Protects agains cirrhosis of the liver and reduces the risk of death by 49%, compared to non-coffee drinkers.
• An individual who consumes 6 or more cups of coffee/day lowers the risk of Type 2 Diabetes by 22%.  Even decaf coffee largely works.

• 
  Protects against Alzheimer's disease.
• Reduces suicide risk and depression.  
• Protects you against Parkinson's.
• Korean researchers found that those who consumed 3-5 cups of coffee/day were less likely to show beginning signs of heart disease.
• Reduces colorectal cancer risk.
• Less gout.

• 
  A Japanese study showed that men who drank at least 3 cups of coffee/day have a 24% lower risk of dying early from a variety of diseases.
• Various studies have shown that those who drink coffee live longer.
• Strong black coffee prevents dental cavities.
• Those who drink coffee get along better with co-workers.
• Strengthens you bones.
• Reduces prostate cancer.
• Lowers cholesterol.

And there are more.  Now about some basic matters:

• Apparently, antioxidants in coffee are the active good ingredient.  (Click on graphic to better read the details.)
• Caffeinated coffee works better than de-caffeinated coffee.
• However, those with certain heart conditions and pregnant females should look closer into drinking coffee.
• Coffee brewing methods that use some type of filter provide higher longevity.
• Drinking coffee black is best.
• 
  How much coffee should you drink?
• Some say 2-3 cups of coffee is the safest range.
• One study indicated that you should limit your daily consumption to 6 eight-ounce cups.
• Another said (a confounding and negative statement):

Similarly, a 2013 study by University of South Carolina researchers found men and women under the age of 55 who consume an average of more than 28 cups per week (four per day) were more closely associated with death over the course of the 32-year-long study.

• On the other hand:

But other research has found that even extremely high coffee intake may be safe. One study partially funded by the British Heart Foundation said you can safely drink 25 cups of coffee per day. It should be noted, however, that the study examined only about 8,000 people around the United Kingdom.

What about kids and coffee?

• Children and adolescents are more and more starting the morning with coffee.
• As a whole, medical advice remains somewhat conservative about young children drinking coffee.
• The worry is caffeine, and only that.
• The problem is potentially one of anxiety and sleep, faced by anyone.
• There is very little research accomplished on this subject because researchers have been reluctant to force children to drink coffee.
• There are no U.S. federal guidelines.
• Canada says half a cup/day for ages 4-6 and a cup for 10-12, with adolescents capable of imbibing more than 5 cups.

So there definitely are physical, mental, emotional and social benefits from coffee.  But what is better for your health...tea or coffee?  I'll someday delve into the best tea to increase your longevity.  Today, here is a source that discusses this choice of tea or coffee.  And another.

If you have a chance to drop into 15 Craigside this month, my around the world photo exhibit is on the wall in the basement.  Unfortunately, visitors are not yet allowed there.

The bottom photo is that of Irene, president of the 15 Craigside Resident's Association, wearing the 15 Craigside polo shirt.

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The first hurricane of the U.S. season is Elsa at 85 MPH heading for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico:

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WHAT IS THE ASYMPTOMATIC RATE OF COVID-19?

     From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY   USA   WORLD   Brazil     India  South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82

July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14      4142    15512       1151        189     712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107     398

          25       2414    10578        1582       119     144

Mar     2        1989    9490         1726        110     194

          31       1115   12301          3950       458      58

April   6         906    11787          4211         631     37

May    4         853   13667          3025      3786     59 

         26         607    12348         2399      3842    101 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95 

         10        452     14097         2484      6138    127

         15        353       9248         2760      1470    208

         16        434       9497         2673      1411    136

         22        352       8560         2080      1129    297

         23        326       8704         2343        978    166

         29        294       7660         1917        816    226

         30        249       8505         2127        991    383

Summary:

• The U.S. is looking better.
• The World and India have plateaued, which is better than being on a rise.
• Country ranking today of new cases:
• #1  India  
• #2  Brazil
• #3  Colombia
• #4  UK
• #5  Argentina
• #6  Indonesia
• #7  Russia
• #8  South Africa
• #9  USA

• 
  The mortality rate is 2.2%.  Thus in ten days or so:
• India will continue to have around 1000 deaths/day.
• Brazil will drop by a factor of two to 1000 deaths/day.
• The U.S. will increase a bit to 300/day.

• 
  Of course, the mortality rate depends on age.
• 39% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. occurred in nursing homes.  Click on that graphic to read the details.

• 

  But what is the asymptomatic rate? 
• The mortality rate could be as low as 0.5% if the asymptomatic rate is 80%.
• However, both the CDC and South Korea believe this rate is 30%.
• Way back in November, Nature reported early studies shows that this rate was as high as 81%, but more recent meta-analysis indicated 17%.
• Anthony Fauci says 40-45%, and we might not know this rate until later in the summer.
• The bottom line is that medical experts do not really know what is the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19.

Can asymptomatic cases spread the disease?  At this time, the CDC speculates that 75% of asymptomatic cases are infectious.  And in case you did not know, asymptomatic individuals are afflicted, but show no symptoms.

It depends on the individual, but a COVID-19 patient is infectious for from 10-20 days.  Worse, this individual can spread the disease two days before showing any symptoms.

Here is something to scare you: 66% of venereal disease cases are asymptomatic.  This means that two-thirds of them so afflicted are capable of infecting you even if they show no symptoms!

The seasonal flu has been around forever, so you would think that medical science knows the range of asymptomatic cases depending on the season?  Nope.  However, the field has guessed that the asymptomatic rate of the flu is 50%.  Again, this is the group that most likely spreads the disease.  The ones who are sick stay at home and later warn you by coughing.

Even for the common cold, there is little consensus.  One study indicated that 60.5% of those afflicted with the rhinovirus are asymptomatic.  

On these bases, you would thus surmise that the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19 must be higher than 50%.  And if the ongoing studies cited by Dr. Fauci come to any kind of conclusion, we might know the asymptomatic rate of this disease by September.

I have been selected to exhibit my photos this month at 15 Craigside.  I am featuring the best of my around the world trips, and provide info on the Island Princess world cruise departing Los Angeles for 111 days beginning on 19January2022.  You, too, can sail the globe.  Alas, I look at my photos and can see that mine can't compare with the following:

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