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Thursday, July 8, 2010

THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION (Part 46)

Well, this is the final piece of the puzzle to Chapter 5 on Religion from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.  It is long, but, I hope, worth your while to ponder over and comment.




The Golden Evolution

 

All things considered, then, should religions be disestablished?  Thomas Jefferson and his Constitution makers, many of them highly religious, nevertheless drew up a wall between religion and government. Yet, Jefferson, although he equated The Bible to fables and mythology, was adamant that no atheist would ever serve in his Cabinet. Times have not changed much. Notwithstanding the seeming illogicality of these few sentences, the point is that there is a place for religion. It serves an important societal purpose. Religion can be, on balance, good. Why get rid of something that works, and reasonably well? Recognize the flaws and enhance the system. But this might not be possible, for, if you remove an underpinning, such as an afterlife, or miracles, the whole concept falls apart.

This chapter could not prove that there was no afterlife, nor, no God. Yet, I am inclining more and more towards a future world with no religion, as people can still be good without an enforcer and a society functional. The worth of this discussion is to stimulate and provoke, in some quarters, a golden revolution in spiritual thought so that the best of what religions can offer can be synthesized with the latest knowledge and societal standards, which themselves are continuously evolving, to, in their own way, help mold our future society, which could well be godless.

Society mores are changing. Science and technology are creating ever new issues for a largely conservative and historically unwavering establishment, where the gospels or Koran or equivalent early writing has supposedly sacred beginnings. How to reconcile, adapt and strengthen will need to prevail over obsolete, unsupportable and illogical strictures.

Eighty four percent of the world population adheres to some religious or spiritual belief. So, how best to proceed?

Let me be brutally specific. I would say to an interdenominational group, you can start by:

o      Taking a closer look at changing social patterns and making appropriate adjustments. At one time, women in the United States could not vote. Blacks until fairly recently had to drink from different public water fountains and seat at the back of the bus in the South. For all intents and purposes, most religions still follow this form of practice in their own obsolete ways. Pope Benedict will excommunicate any female from the Catholic Church who is ordained. Women’s rights are just not allowed in many Muslim societies. The Episcopalians might have a clue. In 2006 they selected Bishop Katharine Jefferts Schori as the first female leader of the U.S. branch of the Anglican Church. They also in 2003 caused controversy by naming an openly gay bishop. One very “simple” change:  give women equal leadership and religious rights. There should be more, but just one progressive step could well set the table for the rest.

o      Appreciating that science and technology have been, and will continue to, change the world. Religions have tended to act like Luddites or ostriches that hide their head in the sand when seeming danger appears (which, by the way, happens to be a myth….but you get the point). Take abortion, for example. Life, indeed, is sacred.  But this is a simple matter of realistically agreeing to the point at which life truly begins. Stem cell research is being obstructed by people with strong religious convictions, and (former) President George W. Bush is the poster man for this faction. All this because “life,” somehow, is being jeopardized. There is also the fear of cloning. Wake up! Genetic engineering is happening and will go underground or to another country if governmental control occurs.  Singapore was beginning to get an edge, but the UK has re-considered, and even the U.S. has adjusted since the coming of Obama.

o      Frankness is no way of approaching this matter, but, heck, appreciating the advent of science, accept the Bible, Koran and other religious manuscripts as a perpetuation of superstitions and fables, and if a document is necessary to maintain some order, create one, and make it up to date and rational. The Bible is the best-selling book of all time…and yearly, too. A unified next generation guide will someday supplant this, and other religious relics.

o      Stop crucifying people. Just in this publication alone:

§       Nicolaus Copernicus (1473-1543): In 1514 he distributed a book called Little Commentary to only his close friends, setting out his theory of the universe with the Sun at the center, although he was wise enough to claim that these were merely mathematical theories.  He died of old age because he generally kept quiet about the actual reality of heliocentrism, and when he finally did publish his ideas, he used Poland and was already very old.







§       Giordano Bruno (1548-1600): A priest, who had the impertinence to suggest that there might be other Suns with other planets, was kept in a dungeon for eight years, tortured, and condemned by the Inquisition and, at the age of 51, executed.










§       Galileo Galilei (1564-1642): Maybe the most famous of astronomers, who perfected the telescope and supported the Copernican Theory, he was found guilty by the Inquisition of heresy and condemned to lifelong imprisonment. In 1992, 350 years later, Pope John Paul II admitted that errors had been made by the Catholic Church.









§       Charles Darwin (1809-1882): His theory of natural selection removed the need for a God, was condemned by the Catholic Church, but by 1859 when Origin of the Species was published, as there was no Inquisition, Darwin lived. The Church is either getting more mature, or losing power.









§       Salman Rushdie (1947-): An Anglo-Indian novelist, he was condemned to death by the former Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 after publishing Satanic Verses 269 which was his fourth novel, and won the 1988 Whitbread Award. The Prophet Muhammad was cast in a bad light and liberties were taken with the Koran. There was a $2 million reward for his death, and in 1998, Ayatollah Hassan Sanei raised it to $2.8 million.  Rushdie remains alive, but goes in and out of hiding. What a life.





§       Sam Harris (still alive, too): awarded the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction, challenges all religions about the irrationality of blind faith. The problem, he says, is religion, and, worse, moderation, poses dangers of its own. Is there an upcoming fatwa?









o      Reach out and work with your constituency and enemy. The day before Pope Paul II died in April of 2005, then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, speaking in the village of Subiaco, just outside Rome, said that Europe now “excludes God from the public conscience.” He further indicated that this disdain for God has led us “to the edge of the abyss.” This is no attitude to take when you want to embrace the people. Religious leaders need to think, act and react positively, not revert to the fire and brimstone mode of operation which might have worked in the past.





o      Eliminate the sexual abuse problem involving priests and, mostly, young boys. Not only the Roman Catholic Church, but other religions, throughout the world, for centuries, have failed to resolve this morality issue.










o      Strive towards a universal religion with one God. Good, the Irish Republican Army has taken that important first initial step towards reconciling the Protestant versus Catholic dilemma in Northern Ireland. The Cardinals should begin to groom a stunning, female, Chinese as a future Pope candidate. Combining all—one God, common dogma—a United Religions of the World, would be a worthy and magnificent challenge. Better yet, leap over that step and agree on no god.

Why, then, don’t Pope Benedict, the Dalai Lama and the other prominent religious leaders meet to arrive at a universal solution? As a matter of fact, this Golden Revolution has begun, for something like this occurred at the end of August in the year 2000, when 2000 of the preeminent religious and spiritual leaders gathered at the United Nations for a Millennium World Peace Summit. This unprecedented forum pledged to take concrete actions for the achievement of world peace. An International Advisory Council of Religious Leaders (IACRL) was formed to function as a resource for the Secretary General of the UN to resolve international conflicts.

IACRL has leaned on the Group of Eight (G8--U.S. Japan, Russia, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, and United Kingdom) meetings, and taken on the elimination of poverty as a common goal. This is certainly a good start because the poorest countries with less than a $1000 Gross National Product/capita already pay 83 percent of their entire budget on world loans. Will they consider the role of women, the issue of abortion and the afterlife?  What about no god?

There are those who have called for an Islamic Reformation. Yes, women’s emancipation and how science fits into the logic can certainly be woven into what makes sense from the now obsolete Koran. There was Martin Luther’s Protestant Reformation in the 1500’s, fracturing Christendom, which provides a message. The next great movement, though, should be a unification, not endless fractionation.


A great first step is for the two largest religions, Christianity and Islam, to determine that they are one and the same religion, for they have virtually identical beliefs:

o      One God, miracles, seven deadly sins.

o      That Jesus was born to Virgin Mary and rose to Heaven.

o      That Abraham was the Father of their religion.

o      Use the Jewish Old Testament and New Testament as sources of faith.

o      Have a Hell, with a Satan, as the nether world to Heaven.

o      Share the Creation, Adam and Eve, and Moses with his Ten Commandments.

The early attainment of this accommodation will no doubt be equated to a major miracle, for as negligible as the Sunni/Shiite differences might be, centuries of mistrust and history are what stand in the way of amity. But, if the Christians and Muslims can “somehow” find a way just to talk about integrating their religion, the lower order disparities of sectarian discord in both religions could then become a tertiary matter to be settled when the attitude of future generations changes. Hinduism and Buddhism can also readily be incorporated, for they tend to be inherently more accommodating, anyway.

The amalgamation of traditional beliefs will take many generations. The Supreme Court has ruled that Secular Humanism is a religion and a Court of Appeals has indicated that Atheism, too, is a religion. The Neo Atheists and their brethren might have difficulty being accepted into this partnership, but they could well serve as the catalysts, for the humanistic sect of these non-beliefs can serve as that rainbow bridge.

Is the Golden Evolution that ultimate step we must take, while surrendering the obsolete beliefs of the past, to reach out for the future by unifying science and new reason with the best of world cultures to attain security, quality of life and happiness forever? Religion is a necessary partner for this simplest of solutions.

The city of Rome began building in 753 B.C., took 250 years to become a Republic, and went on for a millennium. Daniel Dennett believes that religion will lose command in a quarter century. Is there a way, then, for us to bypass all the above in one monumental act?

Yes! The Golden Evolution, in my simple solution (hold your breath, this is as crazy as making hydrogen free in Chapter 3 of Book 1), then, is the process by which there is general acceptance that Man created God when it was vital for our early ancestors to have an all-watching and morally satisfying divinity, but that an omnipresent protector is today obsolete. The only way for the Dennett revolution to happen is first for the sudden emergence of a global test of monumental proportions. Step One, to challenge our survival: a cataclysmic series of events, such as, perhaps, oil suddenly jumping to $200/barrel and tens of millions perishing through global heating one hot summer, with the prospects of Planet Earth converting to Planet Venus (where the surface temperature is 900°F, see Chapter 5 in Book 1) to arise with such fury that all elements of Mankind compellingly unite and take coordinated action, which would be Step Two. Having overcome this global crisis (let’s be at least positive about the outcome), Step Three would be that evolutionary transcendence towards a higher respect for the environment and a fading away of the supreme being concept.  (One by-product would be peace on earth forever.)

As we today don’t need a feared deity to serve as an enforcer, for earlier reported studies have shown that most of our citizens, religious or not, choose the righteous and ethical pathway in life, maybe we can shift our belief and have faith in ourselves, instead. Mind you, there really isn’t any real requirement for worshipping as such, but, in the transition, as our current society appears to have a psychological need for some higher order symbol, perhaps Planet Earth can serve as that tangible object. Instead of depending on our environment to take care of us, though, while in the midst of overcoming Peak Oil and Greenhouse Effect, the Golden Evolution will be the process by which we switch roles and take on the necessary task for remediation and sustainability as a common goal for humanity. In time, and this may take many millennia, we will then expand our vision to our Galaxy as our domain. In anticipation, Book 3 could well be called SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for the Whole Universe.

As I went to Mufi's fundraiser, it was only right to join Neil for sushi and sake.  No, that is not him on the bongos.


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Well, looks like I should have bought a few stock last week.  The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 121 to 10,139, while world markets also mostly went up.  Gold dropped $10/toz to $1196 and petroleum is at around $75/barrel.

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That tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico made landfall over Mexico and the disturbance south of Hawaii is not doing much except for a slight movement west.

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Wednesday, July 7, 2010

HOW YOU CAN SAVE $150 AND YOUR LIFE


Today, I have a public service commentary.  However, for those into Planet Earth and Humanity, please click on my two recent Huffington Post articles published this week:


and


For those who want to save $150 and their life, I would recommend that you take the AARP Driver Safety Course.  There is also an internet version, but it probably will be a lot less of a hassle to just sign up for the 8 or 4 hour course, depending on state and status.  Mind you, there is a $12 charge.  I this morning spent four hours at the Waikiki Community Center, quite a spread out operation in the heart of Waikiki, featuring a variety of activities.  Our course was located in their chapel, but next door in the auditorium was the Royal Hawaiian Band serenading us for an hour.  It was an enjoyable distraction.

I'm surprised that so few even know about this course.  If you are 55, and want to learn more about this money-making, life-saving, adventure, call:

1 888 227 7669

or visit the AARP websight.  I think you need to be an AARP member to sign up, but you can do this at the course.  Annual enrollment is $16/year, but your spouse/partner gets in free.

Thirty six states have passed legislation to mandate that insurance companies give you a discount on your premium upon taking this course.  Curiously, Hawaii is not among them, but I did take this course three years ago, and my insurance fell by about $150 each year, quite a payback from my $10 (it is now $12) investment.  You need to do this every three years to maintain the discount.  My insurance is Hartford, which owns AARP, so check with your insurance company.  The amount you will save on your insurance premium will depend on a variety of factors.  I've heard that the range is between $100-$200 / year, but I could not find anything through Google.

Of course, more important than the monetary savings is the fact that you do learn a few important things about how to drive differently when you get older.  Those at the age of 85 have up to three times the fatality rate of a 16-17 year old, and you know that this younger group is just learning.  I've got to remind Ed Jurkens, who supervises over this AARP program, about even driving at all.   He picks me up to go golfing.  He is 92 years old.  My uncles in their nineties also continue to drive.  I bet they've never taken this course.  They could have saved almost $10,000 by now.

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Wow, the Dow Jones Industrials shot up 275 to 10,018, the first time into five digits since June 28.  Remember, it was at 11,205 in late April.  The Dow remains 4% below January 1.  Hong Kong dropped, but all other markets advanced.  Gold went up $12/toz to $1206 and crude oil edged up close to $75/barrel.

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The Gulf of Mexico disturbance is heading for Mexico, while the following indicates the possible future of the storm south of Hawaii:

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Tuesday, July 6, 2010

THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION (Part 45): More Readings on God and the Afterlife

After a long respite, I'm continuing my serialization of Chapter 5 on Religion from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.


More Readings on God and the Afterlife

 

Compared to 2003, consumer spending in the U.S. on books increased 3.4% in 2004. However, during this same period, there was a 17.3% increase in religious books, which, accounted for most of the change.

Tippler’s The Physics of Immortality provided partial differential equations to prove the existence of the afterlife. George Hammond in 1997 “accidentally discovered scientific proof of God (SPOG),” and, as a by-product, also “confirmed the entire theology of Christian Science (proof-of-god.freewebsitehosting.com).” A simple equation:  GOD = GUV. No advanced calculus. Also provided is a “God Test,” with a warning:  there is very little chance that you can comprehend the scientific proof of God if you can’t answer at least half of them.  There are all kinds.

Scientology is a particularly today topic. Just ask Tom Cruise, John Travolta and 8 million followers in 154 countries. Founded by the very controversial L. Ron Hubbard in 1950, you can purchase a used copy of Dianetics: The Modern Science of Mental Health, for as low as $1.48 on Amazon.com. Of course, you can get free Bibles.  Sociologist David Bromley of Virginia Commonwealth University says that “Scientology is a ‘quasi-religious therapy’ that resembles Freudian ‘depth psychology’ while also drawing upon Buddhism, Hindus, and the ancient, heretical offshoot of Christianity known as Gnosticism.” One controversy is that the therapy sessions could end up costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to reach a kind of Nirvana, called Clear. Belgium and Germany might put the Church of Scientology on trial for extortion and fraud. They could well then be labeled a criminal organization.

God, a Biography by Jack Miles, a Pulitzer Prize national bestseller, cited as “A tour de force….of the character God,” by The New York Times Book Review, is, well, a biography of God.  At the end, one can’t help wondering how valuable the experience was. Was there anything particularly reinforcing? Historically relevant, yes.  Gracefully written, yes. Am I now convinced? No.




Searching for God in America by Hugh Hewitt reports on his conversations with people like His Holiness the XIV and the Dalai Lama of Tibet, then extracts tidbits from events (Mayflower Compact), dignitaries (Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, Muhammad Ali) and authors (Mark Twain, Isaac Asimov), and ends with a number of three minute sermons and songs. Quite an achievement, actually, and, maybe, symptomatic of the very high belief rate of Americans. Does it add to the body of evidence that there is a God? No, but that is true with all other publications of this type.



Francis S. Collins, director of the National Human Genome Research Center, wrote The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, and is noteworthy because he is one of the very few reputable bioscientists who believes in God. Perhaps his home schooling in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia provided some basis for his views. He uses the term BioLogos instead of Theistic Evolution to explain why scientific discoveries about our universe do not conflict with the existence of God. He does believe in evolution, but is not convincing in his attempt to reconcile science with religion.




The Left Behind series by Jerry B. Jenkins and Tim LaHaye sells because people who believe in God many times adhere to a cataclysmic ending to this all. The Armageddon and the Apocalypse, whether in the book title, or as a theme, this eschatological finality from the Book of Daniel, The Revelations, and their like, serve as symbols leading, ironically, to an afterlife, for this offers an escape from doom. I can almost identify with that. Publishers Weekly calls it “the most successful Christian-fiction series ever.” Maybe a bit of redundancy, though, in adding fiction to Christian. But can science aid the critic and/or reinforce the wishes of the believer?





As the afterlife is so crucial to the logic of this chapter, I must include the works of Elizabeth Kubler-Ross (KBR), who claims to have studied 20,000 people who clinically died, but returned to life. She was one of triplets born in Switzerland, the two pound runt of the brood, who early on had to, she says, work extra hard to prove she was worthy of living. When she was a teenager, she voluntarily found her way to concentration camps at the end of World War II and decided that she wanted to work with Mother Theresa in India. She became, though, a psychiatrist in New York City, and went on to practice at the Manhattan State Hospital. Her seminal book was On Death and Dying, but On Life After Death is typical of the type of publication that tries to reach for scientific credibility, and sells well. Three points from this book are memorable, to me. Dr. KBR reported:

o      God, 7 million years ago, gave us free will and the ability for our soul to leave our body, certainly at death, but at other times, too. Interesting that this capability was provided at that relatively precise moment in the past when our earliest of ancestors split off from chimpanzees.

o      She and her team spend their holidays (Memorial, July 4th, Labor) at hospitals, because this was the best chance to interview children who survived headlong collisions. What a life! Morbid, but dedicated.

o      A rather troubling admittance is presented on page 42, when she writes: “We have never published any of our research for many reasons.”

I mention ODAD and OLAD because there is something sincere and almost plausible about her efforts. Yet, I feel she fails that key test of scientific credulity because I, for one, am not convinced.

Another book mentioned again is a fictional tale by Dan Brown, The Da Vinci Code (TDVC), because it fits into the theme of this section. Succinctly, TDVC, which has sold more than 60 million copies since 2003, traces the Holy Grail and indicates that Mary Magdalene bore a child with Jesus, with this line continuing today. For eons, people have been searching for a cup. Well, the chalice that carries the blood of Jesus, it is portrayed, is that human line of descendants. What has Leonardo Da Vinci got to do with the plot? Well, his Vitruvian Man, in combination with the Mona Lisa and The Last Supper, give you the clues to the code, where the Knights Templar and Opus Dei serve as watch guards. How accurate is this novel? No less than most of the other publications indicated in this segment.



The fact of the matter, though, is whether scientists should even bother searching for God or the afterlife. Sir John Templeton has been paying to find an answer since 1972, feeling that the Nobel Prize overlooked spirituality. Templeton is an American born businessman and billionaire who was named by Time Magazine to their 100 most influential people in 2007 and passed away in 2008 at the age of 95.

The Templeton Foundation wants to know whether the universe is the product of design or accident. In 2000, Freeman Dyson, a churchgoing agnostic from Princeton who did not pray and did not consider God omnipotent, was awarded the $1 million Templeton Prize for Progress Toward Research or Discoveries about Spiritual Realities. This sum always just exceeds the Nobel Prize. Mother Teresa won in 1973 and Billy Graham in 1982. 

Dyson’s The Sun, the Genome, and the Internet proposes using the sun for energy, genetic engineering to create more efficient plants and the internet as a way for the poor to raise themselves. There is a lot in common with these simple solutions. He has indicated that, as an agnostic, he does not know (of God and the afterlife) and doesn’t know what is true.  Strange that they gave him this prize, but understandable that he accepted. Dyson, one of the biggest thinkers of our generation, is no longer around, but it is symptomatic of the challenge that after more that almost two decades into the Templeton Prize, science has gotten nowhere towards clarifying this mystery. That, perhaps, is the motive of Templeton.




The 2005 Templeton Prize winner was Charles Townes, a Nobel laureate and co-inventor of the laser. He has been reported to say that the insight of such a device came to him as a revelation, a striking example of the interplay between science and religion.  Scientists propose hypotheses from ideas without initial proof. Thus, like religion, science builds on a form of faith. Professor Townes played an inspirational role in my Chapter 4, and in his waning years, seems to again be focusing on space. So maybe everything is connected to each other and there are logical links among all the chapters in both books.





MY FINAL POSTING ON THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION FOLLOWS...SOON.

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The Dow Jones Industrials increased 57 to 9743, while European markets jumped more than 2%  and the Orient fell.   Gold sunk $18/toz to $1194 and crude oil is at $72/barrel.

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That disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be following the same track of former Hurricane Alex.  However, a storm just popped up south and east of Hawaii.  Those magenta lines are possible future tracks.

Monday, July 5, 2010

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY: Part 5















This is the final installment in my series on The Future of Energy, with a focus on Hawaii.
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN HAWAII

Hawaii is blessed with the Sun, tradewinds, heat of the Earth, ocean resources and sufficient rain to grow biomass on irrigated lands recently vacated by the sugar industry.  We pay the highest energy prices in the Nation.  Ninety percent of the energy we use comes from petroleum, which is destined to skyrocket in price when Peak Oil occurs.
How are we doing on the development of renewable energy relative to other states?  First of all, for the nation at large, EIA 2007 data (2008 information will be released later this month) indicates that hydroelectric power is at 2.4%, while wind and geothermal are both at 0.33% and solar at .04%.  These numbers are higher today, especially for wind power, but not by much.  I selected a cross section of states and here are the percent of electricity from renewable resources (the numbers in the parentheses represent the renewable energy mix percentages):
Washington     73.9  (93% hydroelectricity)
Oregon           61.0  (hydro 88%)
New York        21.2  (hydro 85%)
California        21.2  (hydro 65%, 
                             geothermal 12%, 
                             wind 15%)
Alaska            16.2  (hydro 99%)
Colorado          9.2  (hydro 38%, wind 61%)
Nevada            8.5  (hydro 80%)
Hawaii          7.5  (hydro 11%, geo 14%,                                              
                                  wind 28%,MSW &
                                  biomass 48%)
Wisconsin        5.2  (hydro 59%, 
                             MSW/bio 35%)
New Mexico      5.1  (hydro 14%, wind 85%)
Texas              4.2  (hydro 13%, wind 83%)
Louisiana         4.2
Florida            2.0
New Jersey      1.4
Thus, when you deduct hydro, Hawaii is doing as well as California and Colorado, but better than all the others. Yet, with the element of desperation, we should have been a lot more progressive.
Into the future, Governor Linda Lingle proclaimed the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative, touting 70% renewable energy by 2030. However, also stipulated was 40% of all electricity by 2030, which is confusing, for aviation (about 30%) might well be close to zero and ground transport mostly unknown.  Anyway, this agreement was signed by a Republican governor with the former Republican White House, so, politics being what they are, you can expect some important adjustments when the next governor, who will be a Democrat, takes office after this Fall election.
Here is my recommendation to our next governor (Mufi Hannemann below left and Neil Abercrombie below right):
1.  Your undersea cable project should include the Big Island because geothermal energy, a baseload power source, should be included in the future mix.  Be sure to in advance scout for ideal ocean thermal energy conversion (also baseload) sites so the cable can be conveniently tapped at these locations.  This electrical lifeline will then cost from $2 billion to $3 billion.  Can we afford this?  Well, capital improvement projects get close to $2 billion annually, so spread over a decade, maybe.  There, too, are bonds to float.  However, the most sensible proposition is to have our congressional delegation and the White House, co-sponsored by Texas, introduce the National Grid Act of 2011, using Hawaii as the first experimental site, with Texas as the wind power demo.  Utility scale solar and wind farms will best compete if there is an accessible smart grid system.  I would think that at least a billion can come to Hawaii for this pioneering effort.
2.  A larger problem will be ground transportation.  Plug-in electric cars seem to be the vogue today, but a direct methanol fuel cell powered transport system makes more sense in the long run.  Immediately delete ethanol and terrestrial biofuels (too slow growing, very inefficient and uses too much water).
3.  Our most vulnerable point is aviation.  Tourism is about our only real industry, and when the price of petroleum jumps to $150/barrel, jet fuel will become so expensive that our tourism rate will drop by 50%.  Our local economy will go into and stay in deep depression for many decades, for there are no substitutes on the commercial horizon.  Do everything in your power to insure for both a substitute jet fuel and a next generation sustainable aircraft.  The former will take more than a decade, and the latter, maybe a generation.  We might have time, as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange lists the price of crude oil at $88.36/barrel in December of 2018.  But how often have we been surprised by sudden spikes?  And, Peak Oil is coming.
Hawaii is that proverbial canary in the coal mine, so what  happens to us will in time affect the U.S. and entire planet.  Hawaii is an ideal site to institute these changes because we represent less than one-half of one percent of the Nation, making the cost of implementation affordable.  More so, energy prices are higher here than elsewhere so any new energy technology can more quickly be commercialized.  We also welcome the World as an active partner, for our effort will be shared in the global economy.


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The earlier storm went right through the oil spill area and is heading inland.  The second one, though, might be going more eastward than earlier predicted.



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Sunday, July 4, 2010

*WHAT A WONDERFUL DAY!

My previous July 4 postings provided all the background you need about Independence Day, our 234th birthday, although in 2008, I focused on a Declaration of Energy Independence.  The most noteworthy statistic of the day is that Jaws Chestnut gobbled down 54 (way short of the 68 record he set last year) Nathan hotdogs to win the annual Coney Island event for the fourth straight time.  I guess there was no competition, as Takeru Kobayashi, who was the victor the previous six championships, did not participate, and was actually arrested attempting to hot dog his way to the stage at the end.  Chestnut consumed about 15,000 calories.

Well, that was not so wonderful, but what was is that I found my billfold.  About a decade ago, Pearl picked me up at the airport, and when I returned home, I noticed that my pants pocket was unzipped and my wallet was missing.  After a frantic search, call to the airport, United Airlines, credit card and driver's license offices over the next 24 hours, nothing.  An interesting sidebit is that one of my checking accounts over the next week received two deposits, and not from us.  Anyway, two weeks later, Pearl, while cleaning her car, found my wallet, which had just fallen out of my pocket into a crevice that was not readily viewable.  What a relief, but what a pain.  About those two deposits?  Never figured it out.

What I'm getting to is that on Friday night I remember paying for two coffees at Starbuck's at the Ward Entertainment area.  Then I noticed my billfold was missing yesterday, so went back today to see if they had a lost and found.  After no success, they suggested I go to the Securities Office.  I did, and no luck.  So I drove to Betsy and Harvey Lee's annual July 4th extravaganza.  Here is the group:

I then left the party, opened the door to my car, and saw the billfold, which could be barely seen only under full sunlight.  What a wonderful day!  This is my view from my computer as I complete my blog for today.


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There are now two minor storms in the Gulf of Mexico, one now virtually on top of the oil spill area and 
a second seeming to take the same path as Hurricane Alex.

-Global Sea-Surface Temperature


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Saturday, July 3, 2010

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY: Part 4



THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY, WITH A FOCUS ON HAWAII
The first thought that comes to mind is why, with an abundance of renewable sources throughout the state, Hawaii does not lead the world in advancing the sustainable resources.  The primary reason is a combination of cost and time.  We had great plans in the 70’s and 80’s, but the price of petroleum sunk to an all time low in 1998.  Yes, the real cost of energy dropped below that of 1973 (go to part 2 or the U.S. Energy Information Administration), just before the first Energy Crisis.  See the red line dipping around 1998?  That was the lowest price of gasoline, ever.  Thus, renewable fuels could not compete for transport applications and our winds and sun could not generate electricity as cheaply as fossil fuels and nuclear.
Hawaii is the only state stuck with oil for power generation.   Unbelievably, in March of this year, of all the oil used in the U.S. for electricity, Hawaii used about half.  Hawaii's percentage of oil used for electricity is 70%.  The Nation?  About 1% from oil, 50% coal.
A reasonable rule of thumb is that coal and nuclear electricity can be produced for from 4-6 cents/kWh, wind and geothermal electricity about 6 cents/kWh, direct solar 15 cents/kWh and solar PV more than 20 cents/kWh.  However, new coal (with carbon dioxide capture) and nuclear powerplants now are expected to produce electricity for something higher than 15 cents/kWh.
However, next generation energy sources, are faced with an almost impossible time problem.  From research to commercialization could well be a generation (25 years) because it takes that long for technology development, public acceptance, the governmental regulatory process and, infrastructural development.  Furthermore, if oil suddenly jumps to $147/barrel, then crashes down to $35/barrel a year later, financial organizations get burnt, and they more so become reluctant to take any future risks.  The recent recession will thus make it even more difficult to gain loans unless the Federal Government provides for some guarantees.
Hydroelectric, wind power and geothermal energy are the three renewable sources now competitive with coal and nuclear.  Scratch hydro, because there is not much of this in the state.  Our winds on Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island, plus geothermal heat on that island, will be developed if the undersea cable project can be financed and built for from one to three billion bucks.  Ultimately, Kauai (the depths exceeding 10,000 feet make this island a spectator for now) could be connected with microwave or hydrogen...or cable.
I’ve always felt that Hawaii had the clout in Congress to pass something akin to the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956 signed into law by President Dwight Eisenhower.  With Daniel Inouye the most powerful senator in Congress and Barack Obama the most powerful man in the world, surely, they should be able to pass a National Grid Act of 2011, using Hawaii as the test case site to initiate the program. A billion or two for this pioneering venture would help.
Regarding Hawaii and today, first, it would make sense to replace incandescent with fluorescent bulb, plus all the other conservation measures you can justify.  Certainly install a solar water heater on your roof or apartment building.  You ask, why don’t residents also install a windmill and solar photovoltaic arrays?  First, homes are not built in good wind regimes, but while you can consider a small wind energy conversion system to vent your home to minimize air conditioner costs, don’t even think about a 10 kW wind device to satisfy your demand.  You need about a 14 MPH wind average over the year to make this worthwhile, and I would guess that less than 1% of homes are so blessed.
A PV system, however, is beginning to get intriguingly attractive, especially in Hawaii, where we pay two to three times (25-32 cents/kWh versus 11 cents/kWh) that of the Nation.  For the longest while PV costs have exceeded 20 cents/kWh, and probably closer to double that.  The big advantage is that, while many of those major wind farms (6 cents/kWh cost, but almost double that to deliver the electricity) need to connect to a distant or insufficient grid, while you are already linked.  Two key incentives are generous Federal/State tax breaks and improving feed-in tariffs.  New homes should soon begin to sell with the solar heating/PV system installed, for roofing requirements can be significantly reduced with well-designed architecture.  A retrofit for an existing house will still set you back $25,000, but  the amount you actually pay will depend on those tax incentives.
Germany went ultra progressive by legislating utility companies to pay:
Feed-in Law fixes tariffs for approved renewable energy projects for a 20-year period from the plant commissioning and will apply incremental price cuts. Tariffs were initially set at 48.1 cents per kilowatt hour for solar energy, 8.6 cents per kWh for wind, from 9.6 to 8.2 cents per kWh for biomass, 8.4 to 6.7 cents per kWh for geothermal and 7.2 to 6.3 cents per kWh for hydropower, waste and sewage gas.
This made Germany the #1 PV country in the world, but payments are, as legislated, depreciating, and there is a sunset clause.  Spain initially did the same, but unexpectedly reneged, and their solar industry virtually collapsed.  
There is a lesson or two to learn here.  As Hawaii re-looks at geothermal energy and evaluates the coming of ocean thermal energy conversion, both, by the way, the only BASELOAD (the sun and winds come and go) options, it is clear that considerable government participation will be necessary to accelerate any development.
This series will continue.

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That nagging storm in the Gulf Mexico is moving west towards the oil spill area.

Friday, July 2, 2010

THE STATE OF PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY ON 2JULY2010

1.  Day 74 of Gulf Oil Spill:  Very approximately, about 500,000 gallons/day are being captured, of which more than half is flared.  This is about equal to what escapes into the ocean.  (These percentages are very gross, as they still don't know if the leak is 1.5 million or 3 million gallons per day.)  While Hurricane Alex is gone, oh oh, something approaching from the East (see below).

2.  Unemployment:  Confusing, but 125,000 jobs were lost last month, but the unemployment rate dropped to 9.5%.  The Hawaii rate is now at 5.2%, and the economy is hurting.  The three lowest U.S. cities are Bismark (3.1%), Fargo (3.5%) and Grand Forks (3.8%).  They are all in North Dakota.  The worst cities are almost all in California, with El Centro at #372 with 27.5% and Las Vegas (Nevada) #358 at 14.1%.

3.  U.S. Congress:  General David Petraeus was confirmed, 99-0, by the U.S. Senate to head the Afghanistan War.  Elena Kagan will be confirmed sometime soon to sit on the Supreme Court.  However, legislation on jobless benefits and Wall Street seem stalled because certain members want to gain some concession out of these votes.  All should pass this month.

4.  There is something about marine paleonthology that intrigues me.  I thought about becoming a dinosaur hunter when very young, then later realized this meant living in the desert and no showers for weeks.  But there will soon be adventurers at the seabottom using the latest electronics to make interesting finds.  The skull of this giant whale, which lived 13 million years ago, was found on land in Peru, and is named Herman Melville.




5.  Want to hear "Go For Broke," a yet to be released Jake Shimabukuro single?  Try:
  
July 1, 2010
Go For Broke - Free Single Download
Inspired by their loyalty and dedication to our country, Shimabukuro produced “Go For Broke” to remember the courageous contributions and sacrifices made by this most highly-decorated U.S. unit in military history. “Go For Broke” was the motto selected by the nisei (a person born to parents who emigrated from Japan) soldiers to express the determination by the men to give it their all and risk everything in honor of their country despite the many challenges they faced.


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The Dow Jones Industrials sank a further 46 to 9686.  It is now down 7% this year.  Maybe I will buy at minus 10%.  Most world markets were up, but the Hong Kong Hang Seng settled 224 to 19,905.  Gold increased $9/toz to $1212 and crude oil is at $72/barrel.

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A potential storm just formed south of the Florida Panhandle, and seems headed towards the oil spill area.

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Thursday, July 1, 2010

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY: Part 3


Part 2, which was published today in the Huffington Post, was a philosophical overview.  Today, I will return to the basics.  We need energy to keep us comfortable, move us around and power our industries.  Thus, think in terms of electricity, ground transport and aviation.  
Over the past few decades, most of our R&D effort has been devoted to renewable electricity from our winds, sun, ground heat and the ocean.  Relative to existing coal/fossil generation, wind power is just about there (the wheeling remains an important cost factor), solar thermal is getting close and utility scale solar photovoltaics still require a few breakthroughs.  Government incentives and the fact that a resident will not be faced with transmission costs make PV something to consider today, although the competitiveness becomes questionable if these federal and state credits are terminated.  If it is true that carbon capture coal plants and new nuclear facilities will produce electricity for from 15 cents to 30 cents/kWh, then, of course, even PV begins to make sense.
To replace gasoline and the internal combustion engine, research is progressing on developing bioliquids, batteries and the fuel cell.   Ethanol from corn continues to be a terrible idea, and the hydrolysis and fermentation of the fiber into more ethanol will not be as cost effective as gasification/catalysis into methanol, especially if a DMFC can be developed.  Unfortunately, the Farm Lobby, in particular, has been successful in preventing R&D on biomethanol, so timing now becomes a huge problem, for Peak Oil is right around the corner.
While I have expressed some reservations (coal will continue to be mostly used in power plants for the next couple of decades), we might as well see how the lithium plug-in car can compete.  My highest recommendation is to initiate a full court press on the direct methanol fuel cell, for this system will take a vehicle five times further than any battery.  Hydrogen, at this time, remains too expensive to produce with no existing infrastructure.  Plus, why bother with a gas when one gallon of methanol has more accessible hydrogen than a gallon of liquid hydrogen.  In the transition, a DMFC-battery system seems ideal, again, save for the fact that the DMFC is at least a decade away, and might never be developed.  Toshiba is beginning to market the DMFC for portable applications, as electronic devices can run two to five times longer with this power source relative to batteries.
The third area, and one of utmost importance to Hawaii, is finding a substitute for jet fuel and/or commercializing a next generation jetliner.   Why?  Because tourism is our only industry, and visitors will stop coming to Hawaii when oil skyrockets to $150/barrel and a trip to our state becomes too expensive.  In a bad case scenario, Hawaii will be the canary in the coal mine for a major depression. Ominously, it will take a generation to develop either aviation option, and the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming should strike in a decade or less.  Is this hopeless?  No, but the development of  sustainable aviation should be our (Hawaii's) highest priority because very little is being done and we do have the political clout (Senator Daniel Inouye is now the most powerful person in Congress and President Barack Obama was born in this state).  The book on the left was written by Dan Brewer of Lockheed in 1991.  While now dated, I honor him, because with Willis Hawkins, also of Lockheed, they were instrumental in passage of the Act to Establish the Spark M. Matsunaga Hydrogen Research, Development, and Demonstration Program Act of 1990.
In Part 4 I will provide further details.
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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 41 to 9733, with world markets also mostly down.  Gold fell $38/toz to $1203 and crude oil is just under $73/barrel.  

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There are no major storms over our oceans.

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