THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION (Part 22): WHAT DO PEOPLE BELIEVE (Part C)?

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 5 on Religion from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

In 2002, the Pew Research Center polled 38,000 people in 46 countries:

o Percent of people who find religion very important in their life:

§ Senegal.....................97%

§ Indonesia...................95%

§ Nigeria.......................92%

§ India............................92%

§ Pakistan.....................91%

§ South Africa...............87%

§ Brazil..........................77%

§ Turkey.........................65%

§ United States............59%

§ Mexico.........................57%

§ Argentina....................39%

§ Uzbekistan..................35%

§ Great Britain................33%

§ Canada........................30%

§ Italy...............................27%

§ South Korea................25%

§ Germany......................21%

§ Russia..........................14%

§ Japan...........................12%

§ France..........................11%

What is it about the French? Maybe their culture is more evolved. About Americans, while many more believe in a supreme being, they seem contented in not having to be bothered by church memberships, as the figure here is 59%, not the 90+% that supposedly believe in Him. Symptomatic of the situation is the fact that there are 3% fewer Roman Catholic clerics in the world compared to 1978, but 20% less in Europe.

Worldwide, the older you are, the more you believe. The type of religion makes a difference. The U.S. figure of 59% in the final list is somewhat understandable, as belief in God does not mean that religion, per se, is important. Similarly, the 65% “importance” rate for Turkey comes from a country just about 100% Muslim. Thus, there already seems to be a sliding from Koran strictures even in an Islamic country. In the U.S., one believes what is ingrained from youth, and, while Santa Claus can be set aside as a parental and commercial ploy, there is something sacred about religion that defies common sense.

The Council for Secular Humanism reported from Free Inquiry Magazine: Percentage saying “I know God exists and I have no doubts about it”:

o Philippines 86.2%

o United States 62.8%

o Israel 43.0%

o West Germany 27.3%

o Russia 12.4%

o East Germany 9.2%

But to the question about belief in life after death:

o United States 55.0%

o Philippines 35.2%

o West Germany 24.4%

o Israel 21.9%

o Russia 16.8%

o East Germany 6.1%

As an exception, in Israel, the drop from belief in God to belief in an afterlife is a factor of two, from 43.0% to 21.9%, whereas those other countries did not change much. Books and books can be churned out just analyzing these surveys, and they have been. Noticeably lacking were data from the Middle East. The 90’s percentage for Muslim and Hindu countries hints that Saudi Arabia and Iraq might rest close to 100%. But the U.S. in the 60-90% range for all these religious beliefs, with France and Japan closer to 10-40%, begs for explanation. Why is something so fundamental so varied?

I have given many speeches in China, and, early on, for my personal surveys, asked a show of hands on who believed in an afterlife. Typically, the response was close to 1%. Little did I know that to express a religious opinion in public was prohibited. Every one who raised his hand could have come into jeopardy. Yikes! So I stopped asking. It is said, though, that the present regime is not so fussy, and this question can now again be asked, and that the response will be much higher and more accurately reflect actual beliefs.

For entirely different reasons, do not ask this question in the Middle East and at certain gatherings in parts of the United States. In fact, my wife has warned me about such dinnertime conversation with family and friends.

So, finally, what about the world at large? According to reported polls, the belief in God figure is:

o 96% (Calculation God, Robert Sawyer, 2000)

o 92% (The Cambridge Companion to Atheism, Phil Zuckerman and Michael Martin, 2004)

So the USA is right up there with the rest of the world in God belief. Okay, then, something went wrong with Dawkins’ contention that belief drops with education.

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The Dow Jones Industrials went up 30 to 10,927, while world markets mostly dropped. Gold increased $2/toz to $1150 and crude oil remained just below $86/barrel. Those financial talking heads now seem to believe that the Dow Jones will rise to 13,000 by the end of the year. The higher the market, the fewer the number of added Republicans in Congress in the coming Fall elections.

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Earthquakes keep coming, without causing much in way of fatalities or damage, for Sumatra (Indonesia) was struck with a 7.8 temblor yesterday, and Baja had a 7.2 Easter quake, killing three.

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THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION (Part 21): WHAT DO PEOPLE BELIEVE (Part B)?

To summarize the standard American polls, asking for belief in God:

o Gallup 2007 95%

o Gallup (Baylor Study) 2006 92%

o Fox News 2004 92%

o Harris (Taylor) 2003 90%

o ABC News 2000 95%

But there are other polls, as in 2008, showing the belief in God figure at around 75% and lower. Here is why. A Gallup poll from May 8-11 in 2006 asked a slightly different question. Which comes closest to describing you:

o Convinced God exists 73%

o Probably exists, but have a little doubt 14%

o Probably exists, have a lot of doubt 5%

o Probably does not exist, but not sure 4%

o Convinced God does not exist 3%

o No opinion 2%

Thus, if you add the first three, the sum is 92%. A second look would be the 1991 International Survey Program survey. There was only a 63% belief in God figure. This number results from “I know God exists and I have no doubts about it.” In any case, a strong statement can be made that more than 9 out of 10 of Americans believe in God, at least to some degree.

On the global level, in 2001, the International Social Survey Program polled 1,000 to 2,000 in each of 16 countries:

o Do you believe strongly in God?

...............................Country ...........18-29 years old.. Over 60

§ Ireland .............................28% ....................73%

§ U.S. ................... .............55% ....................72%

§ France .............................12% ....................46%

o Do you believe in life after death?

§ Ireland.............................60% ...................82%

§ U.S. ............................... 68% ...................66%

§ France ............................53% ...................45%

o Do you believe in Heaven?

§ Ireland ............................70% ....................87%

§ U.S. .................................75% ...................79%

§ France ............................31% ...................40%

Interesting that 28% of Irish 18-29 years of age did not believe in God, but nevertheless, 70% of this same group thought they would go to Heaven. For all three countries, the youth, relative to the more elderly, tends not to believe in God. Many in France must be going to purgatory or hell, for about half believe in an afterlife, but only a third believe in Heaven.

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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk 72 to 10,898, while world markets almost all fell. Gold went up $13/toz to $1148 and crude oil settled below $86/barrel.

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THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION (Part 20): WHAT DO PEOPLE BELIEVE (Part A)?

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 5 on religion from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

What do People Believe?

While IDIOT provided the superstructure, TIME magazine regularly delivers to me the latest statistics. In a poll of 1,004 adult Americans by Yankelovich (Time, June 24 1996, p. 62), and these apply mostly in the U.S.:

o Do you believe in the healing power of personal prayer?

§ YES 82%

§ NO 13%

(Recent polls do not deviate much.)

In a telephone poll of 1,018 Americans taken on March 11-12, 1997 by Yankelovich Partners:

o Do you believe in the existence of heaven, where people live forever with God after they die?

§ YES 81%

§ NO 13%

(A 2009 Readers' Digest poll rose to 85%.)

o Do you believe you will meet friends and family members in heaven when you die?

§ YES 88%

§ NO 5%

o Immediately after death, which of the following do you think will happen to you?

§ Go directly to heaven 61%

§ Go to purgatory 15%

§ Go to hell 1%

§ Be reincarnated 5%

§ End of existence 4%

Incredibly, only 4% of Americans have my eternal gloom belief. I hope Americans in the grand majority are right! Ah, but, that faith part might hinder my entrance. Perhaps my basic goodness will prevail.

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I had Deetsie Chave of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology and Connie (psychologist) and Harry Olsen (former Spark Matsunaga Fellow in Renewable Energy in Geothermal Energy) over for dinner tonight. We enjoyed the great weather on my roof with an assortment of local food. The Olsen's now live in Denver.

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The Dow Jones Industrials edged down 4 to 10,970, while world markets were mostly up. Gold increased $4/toz to $1135 and crude oil is just under $87/barrel.

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STANFORD INTERNATIONAL

Note that the official name of the school is Leland Stanford Junior University. When I first saw this presidential seal nearly 52 years ago, I thought I had come to a junior college. Why that German motto? Click on this piece by former Stanford President Gerhard Casper, born in Germany, who on his inauguration joked that he was selected because the trustees wanted someone who could pronounce those words.

One of my regrets is that I never took that quarter or two off to attend one of the Stanford University overseas campuses. I guess I wanted to graduate in less than four years, and that would have been impossible if I so did.

In the latest issue of STANFORD, I noticed that the school now has something they never did in my days: campuses in the Orient. President John Hennessey reported on:

1...a biodesign program in Singapore. This effort is not associated with any academic institution, but with Biopolis, which I wrote about in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. However, a fellowship link is being established with the National University of Singapore and Nanyang Technological University.

2. In the late '50's, Provost Frederick Terman, who was instrumental in creating Silicon Valley, was the inspiration for one of his graduate students, Irwin Ho, plan and develop Taiwan's Science Park, which now has 500 companies and $25 billion annual revenues, providing 10% of the country's Gross National Product.

3. The Stanford International Initiative is helping to save humanity. One, the Rural Education Action Project, works with the outlying poor of China, establishing links between the environment and protests. You can expect them to be kicked out of the country sometime soon. A second is the Cross-Cultural Design team with Peking University, working to eradicate Hepatitis B, an ailment that kills a million/year in the Orient.

4. The Bing Overseas Studies Program (wasn't there when I was...but that was a half a century ago) has provided opportunities for 27,000 students, and now also has campuses in Kyoto, Queensland (coastal studies), Berlin, Capetown, Florence, Madrid, Moscow, Oxford, Paris and Santiago. Sounds like the itinerary for one of my typical around the world trips. Hmmmm...

The magazine also featured:

1. Sustainable Stanford, the Energy and Climate Change Plan with a budget of $250 million, primarily focused on campus energy use to save $639 million over the next 40 years. Yes, they think far into the future.

2, Fifty students and faculty attended the 15th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change this past December in Copenhagen, the gathering that most jeered as almost useless. Led by Professor Stephen Schneider, the Group of 50 joined 170,000 ( a lot of people, but how many went from the University of Hawaii??) and they did all they could to end up with a viable agreement. So they failed, but the experience will last a lifetime.

3. 32,000 applications were received for the class of 2014. 2,300 will be accepted for a rate of 7.6%. Harvard's rate this year was 6.9%, Yale 7.5%, Princeton 8% and MIT 10%.

4. Stanford graduates Kenneth Suslick and Paul Rhodes founded iSense, and are close to diagnosing early-stage lung cancer using a breathalyzer-type device. Someday, smell tests show promise for diabetes, kidney diseases and range of other illnesses. Ever wonder why a dog is used for searches? Well, the human nose has around 30 million olfactory receptors. A dog has upwards of a billion. DARPA is also interested in this electronic pathway to detect explosives and biological weapons.

5. Did you know that a Stanford female professor, Clelia Mosher, a century ago, began taking sex surveys, fully 50 years before Alfred Kinsey? According to this article by Kara Platoni, the results, kept under wraps, were startling.

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The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 47 to 10,974, with world markets all up. The Japan Nikkei is now at 11,339. Gold increased $11/toz to $1133 and crude oil is nearing $87/barrel.

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EASTER: RESURRECTION, EGGS AND THE BUNNY*

As Good Friday is bad, Easter Sunday is good. Jesus was resurrected and this day--approximately in the year 33 CE (common era, the politically correct version of Anno Domini, AD), which means he was 33 years old (mind you, much of this is conjecture anyway)--ending the 40 (or so) days of Lent, where fasting and other forms of penance are practiced. The number 40 comes up time and again in The Bible: Jesus, for example, spent 40 days fasting before the Last Supper and 40 hours tombed--the period Friday night until Sunday morning--which is why Easter occurs on Sunday. There was, as we are taught, Noah and his 40 days and nights, and more.

The resurrection is, of course, the Greatest Miracle. What was the evidence? None! Yes, placed in a tomb on Friday, when opened on Sunday, the body was missing. Ergo.... I could comment here, but such is the nature of miracles. The Bible does not quite say where Jesus went after resurrection. There are references of Hell, then Heaven.

What do people do on Easter Sunday? Some go to church. The Costco chain and some liquor stores are closed, but Wal-Mart, movie theaters and restaurants are all open. Major League Baseball celebrated its first pitch in Boston, versus the Yankees.

What I remember most about Easter were those colored eggs. Of course, there is a history here, for an egg symbolized rebirth, at least, in the past. I bet you didn't know that the eggs you buy in supermarkets are unfertilized, and, therefore, cannot be hatched into a chick. Anyway, originating to the beginnings of Christianity, as eggs could not be consumed during Lent, they became prized on Easter Sunday. The matter of color could have begun when the boiled egg Saint Mary Magdalene (here to the left by Gregor Erhart from the Louvre) delivered to Emperor Tiberius miraculously (yes, another miracle) turned blood red, representing the blood of the arisen Christ. In Dan Brown's The Da Vinci Code, Mary is the Holy Grail, and just because this was the punch line is not proof that this concept is pure fiction.

In case you do not know how to color eggs (my other cooking hint was "How to Roast a Turkey"), first, carefully place the eggs in a pot of cold water. Turn on to max heat and, with the first bubble as point zero, boil for three minutes (although, clearly, if the eggs are bouncing about, lower the heat), turn off and let cool. We always used Paas easter egg dyes when I was a child, but, more recently, natural colors are more and more being used: blue (canned blueberries), red (canned cherries), green (spinach), orange (carrots), orange (lemon peels), and so on. Use about a teaspoon of vinegar/cup of water. Alas, the colors are not as intense. I must have had a good eye of picking the right egg, for a good percentage of the time, my egg pecked well and ended up being the last one whole.

The White House egg roll, a 130 year old tradition, is tomorrow. President Truman, though, in all his years in office, never did host one. 30,000 tickets were distributed in 2009. The Easter Bunny became a regular from 1969, and many times is a guest celebrity.

The notion of the Easter Bunny delivering eggs originated in Germany half a millennium ago. No, nothing in The Bible about this. There is a double life-giving symbol here, for rabbits breed prolifically. There is also an analogy here with Santa Claus and Christmas, but NORAD does not track rabbits. Unlike turkey at Thanksgiving, rabbits, with a few exceptions, are not eaten at Easter, although you will see their shape in cakes, cookies and that once a year chocolate bunny. There is also a rapping Easter Bunny if you want to be entertained today.

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Wow, there was just a 7.2 earthquake in Northern Baja, swaying buildings in Los Angeles. Early reports shows two deaths, more than a hundred injuries and a whole lot of broken windows.

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Total number of visitors to site: 34987

Visitors this week: 1110

Number of countries: 146

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THE FUTURE OF BIOFUELS

As slow as we are reacting to providing wind, solar and ocean power to replace electricity from coal and other fossil fuels (remember: Peak Oil and Global Warming are coming), at least windpower is now competitive, and considerable activity is ongoing compared to transportation. Yes, plug-in electric cars have finally made a move, and, while I think this is more good than bad, I do question the sensibility of solely heading in this direction for vehicles.

The civilized world runs on refined oil: gasoline and jet fuel. Knowledgeable people expect petroleum to reach peak production any day now, and, certainly in a decade. At this point, the price could double from the $85/barrel today, and more. Hawaii is particularly vulnerable, for, unlike the rest of the world, we use oil to also generate electricity. When the price zoomed past $100/barrel and up to $147/barrel in July of 2008, the cost of electricity increased to 32 cents/kilowatt-hour, while the nation did not move much from 11 cents/kWh. Which befuddles me, for we complain when our gasoline costs "only" 25% (today, $3.51/gallon versus $2.84/gallon, compared to that 300% for electricity) more than the national average, and so called watchdog organizations seemed to revolt at a $1/barrel (a little more than 2 cents/gallon) tax on oil being considered by the Hawaii State Legislature.

Mind you, if you click in the right box on FUTURE PRICE OF OIL, you will find that investors believe that oil will sell for $91.42/barrel in December of 2017. But oil economists, for example, have been notoriously, in fact, embarrassingly, wrong again and again in the past. Do you believe these prognosticators, or Peak Oil "experts?" Matt Savinar has long expounded on this subject and there are various blog sites on this subject. The Oil Drum is as good as they come in comprehensively reporting on the present and future of oil.

My gut feeling is that we cannot expect petroleum to remain below $100/barrel for seven more years. All things concerned, knowing that it takes decades for any new fuel to make any kind of impact, we cannot take any chance, should have begun a full court press for sustainable biofuels after the Second Energy Crisis in 1979, and must, absolutely must, initiate a monumental effort today.

Hawaii is more dependent on oil than any state, with gasoline and jet fuel prices higher than virtually any other location, making the commercialization of biofuels more attractive. We also serve as military headquarters for the Pacific. What better partnership than Hawaii and the Department of Defense (DOD) to initiate the R&D and provide the market for these next generation commodities?

Thus, the industrial forum to be hosted at the Kaneohe Marine Base on Tuesday and Wednesday this week is just the kind of spark we need to get something started. The key question is what will this bio gasoline/jet fuel substitute cost? The Defense Advanced Projects Agency of the DOD has suggested $3/gallon as a "near" term possibility, with $2/gallon, then down to $1/gallon as its goal. Now, $2/gallon is $84/barrel, so anything close to this figure will forever stabilize the price of gasoline and jet fuel. At the other extreme, I have talked to world class researchers, who tell me that anything lower than $5/gallon ($210/barrel) will be a real challenge, can only be attained through a major uptick in research funding, and will take a decade of intensive R&D. This, then, is the billion dollar question: which group will be closer to the truth, DARPA or credible researchers in the field? For now, I want believe in DARPA, otherwise, Hawaii will enter into a prolonged local great depression.

Thus, while we are moving along with renewable electricity and initiated the crusade for clean ground transport, virtually nothing is happening for next generation air travel. My Huffington Post article on sustainable aviation suggests a pathway. In short, DARPA has to prevail on a bio jet fuel and, for the longer term, a hydrogen powered aircraft must be developed.

What role can Hawaii play? For one, we have been mostly concerned about furloughs and internal politics. We need to get serious now and work together in a total partnership of government, industry, unions, Hawaiians and all. I even suggested in a recent HuffPo about what this galvanizing force might be: HAWAII SUSTAINABLE EXPO 2020.

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GOOD FRIDAY IS BLACK FRIDAY

Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion and death of Jesus Christ. It is by any measure Black Friday, and World Autism Awareness Day happens this year to be today. The Passion of Christ, directed by Mel Gibson, focuses on this day, when Jesus dragged the cross, assisted by Simon of Cyrene (at least one Gnostic version has Simon on the cross, better explaining how Jesus could be “resurrected”—in the 1927 King of King’s, William Boyd, later to become Hopalong Cassidy, was Simon).

With Christmas being the only exception, regarding separation of church and state, Good Friday is not a national holiday, and only nine states fully honor today as a full holiday. However, many schools and some banks are closed and the New York Stock Exchange is black today.

Numerous “Christian” countries do consider this to be a public holiday, as for example:

1. Those former British colonies (plus the UK) tend to close down on Good Friday, including Ireland, South Africa, Singapore, Canada (except for Quebec--that French influence), Hong Kong and India (although this could be changing).
2. European countries mostly celebrate Easter Monday, but some have a four-day weekend with Good Friday.
3. Not necessarily surprising, for the details of their religion are remarkably similar, but this is a national holiday in Muslim Indonesia.

This is a day of prayer and religious services, vigil, fasting (or at least of smaller meals) and the like. The reality is that, more and more, blue and commerce prevention laws are being overturned. This is the day when bakeries crank out a lot of hot cross buns, something that was started by an Anglican Monk in the 12th century, perhaps as a way to avoid a total fast.

Good Friday, of course, is always two days before Easter (celebrates the resurrection of Christ), which falls on the first Sunday after (or on) the full moon after (or on) the Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring). Thus, Good Friday will always occur between (or on) March 20 and April 23. Next year, Good Friday is April 22.

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A tropical cyclone popped up in the middle of the Indian Ocean. No threat to islands at this time.

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APRIL FOOL'S, KUGEL AND CONSTANTINE THE GREAT

This is not an April Fool's joke, in that I am reporting on incidents in history that were perpetrated knowing full well that this is April 1. The UK goes overboard this day, for you must remember that 1957 British TV 3-minute clip on Panorama of spaghetti growing on trees. The British say the tradition goes back to Chaucer's Canterbury Tales in 1381. Just about every media outlet had something today:

1. The Sun had a small black square inviting readers to taste the first flavored newspaper. The fact that the fine print below said: "May contain nuts," only added to the prank.

2. The Daily Mirror showed Queen Elizabeth flying with easyJet, a low-cost airline.

3. The Independent reported the Circle Line of the London subway will be converted into the second Hadron Collider.

4. BBC exposed Shakespeare's mother as French.

Which leads to France and what they term April Fish, for their contention is that they invented this day when King Charles IX in 1564 changed the Julian to the Gregorian calendar, adjusting the new year on March 25 to January 1. "Poisson d'Avril" because the New Year represents the Sun leaving Pisces. The standard prank is children pasting paper fish on the back of their friends, making the victim a fool.

Well, America mostly went high tech today, for Hulu had a 3D option (where you will instead get a meaningless 10 minute Alec Baldwin orientation flick), Google was renamed Topeka (this city has indicated they would re-name themselves Google if selected as a broadband site) and

the National Republican Senatorial Committee had a spoof about President Barack Obama called "Democrats' Rainbows and Unicorns."

Now, about Court Jester Kugel, who, 1700 years ago, supposedly replaced Constantine the Great for a day to begin the tradition known as the April Fool's joke, you can read the details in the Christian Science Monitor by Stephen Kurczy, but, in short, Boston University history Professor Joseph Botkin was asked by Fred Bayles, a young AP reporter, about the history of April Fool's Day because the BU press office mistakenly (he did say he was researching the history, but only as a sarcasm) so informed the media. It was one of those accidents of people and circumstances when he ad libbed the whole thing, creating Kugel because one of his friends enjoyed that Jewish pudding. Well, the world fell for the story, except he later told his class about that incident, which led to BU almost firing him (but he had tenure) and the AP reporter tearfully indicating in a call that his life as a journalist was over. Well, the punch line to this April Fool's joke is that he is now an Associate Professor of Journalism at Boston University, and Joseph and Fred subsequently buried the hatchet over lunch.

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The Dow Jones Industrials surged 70 to 10,927, with world markets almost all up. The Japan Nikkei is now at 11,244. Gold increased $12/toz at $1126 and crude oil jumped to $85/barrel.

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