- The Democratic Party National Convention kicks off in Chicago tonight.
- ...former President Donald Trump entered the Republican National Convention a month ago, with the betting odds in his favor and leading the polls by a comfortable margin.
- Now, Kamala Harris is favored.
In a five-way race that includes Robert F Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein, Harris leads Trump 47-44 percent among registered voters and 49-45 percent among likely voters.
- The best internet site to view popularity and odds on how much a candidate is ahead or behind is FiveThirtyEight. Note that 538 is part of ABC News, which is owned by Disney.
- Betting favorites usually win elections. If you show a negative number, you are the favorite. (If you are reading this posting in the original format, click on this to see the entire table.)
| Year | Winner (Party) | Winner Odds | Runner-up (Party) | Runner-up Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Joe Biden (D) | -175 | Donald Trump (R) | +150 |
| 2016 | Donald Trump (R) | +375 | Hillary Clinton (D) | -550 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama (D) | -450 | Mitt Romney (R) | +360 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama (D) | -900 | John McCain (R) | +800 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush (R) | -188 | John Kerry (D) | +138 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush (R) | -175 | Al Gore (D) | +125 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton (D) | -1000 | Bob Dole (R) | +600 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton (D) | -800 | George H. W. Bush (R) | +500 |
| 1988 | George H. W. Bush (R) | -700 | Michael Dukakis (D) | +400 |
This is regarded as one of the biggest upsets in election history. Clinton was always the favorite leading up to the election. However, with just 2 weeks to go, an FBI investigation into her emails dropped Clinton from -550 odds to about -300 odds. Trump improved to +200 because of that.
Being the favorite is one thing, but the strength of your odds is also important. Just consider this split for the favorite since 1872:
- Favorites with odds of -175 or better are 26-2 (.929) in U.S. presidential elections.
- Favorites with odds of -150 or longer are 1-6 (.143) in U.S. presidential elections.
That’s a strong winning percentage for the favorite, and it has improved in recent times after some upsets in the 19th century. In the last 30 elections with a clear favorite, the favorite is 26-4 (.867) with a 9-1 record (.900) since Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1984.
- One more comparison showing the vulnerability of Kamala Harris (again, if you want to see the whole table and happen to be viewing the original format, click on this).
| Kamala Harris | -125 | 55.56% | -125 | 55.56% |
| Donald Trump | +100 | 50.00% | +100 | 50.00% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +6600 | 1.49% | +6600 | 1.49% |
| Michelle Obama | +7000 | 1.41% | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10000 | 0.99% | +30000 | 0.33% |
Good news for Kamala Harris, though, is that past national conventions have shown that the party candidate experiences a bump in ratings.- Keep in mind that things can still significantly change during the final few weeks, as was shown in Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump.
- 78 days until November 5.
Top 20 Craziest Trump Moments.
This video is now three years old, but here is former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich revealing Trump's 40 biggest broken promises.
Top 10 celebrity Trump haters.
For some equal time, a host of celebrities supporting Donald Trump after his assassination. Video includes, interestingly enough, Mike Pence.
But, ah, here are more Anti-Trump celebrities.
Billionaires: Harris or Trump? Watch if you have 9 minutes to spare.
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