THE FUTURE OF RARE EARTH ELEMENTS

I was scanning back to determine my nostalgic posting to focus on today, and saw:

WILL RARE EARTHS BECOME A PRODUCT OF THE BLUE REVOLUTION?

I mentioned that I had two previous experiences with this subject.

• In the 1970's the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory where I worked was trying to accomplish fusion using Neodymium YAG lasers.  YAG stands for Yttrium, Aluminum and Garnet, which is a silicate mineral mostly used as gemstones and abrasives.    Neodymium and Yttrium are rare earths.

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  I then went on to work for the U.S. Senate and my first task in 1979 was to staff the effort of the Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Act, whose chief sponsor was Senator Spark Matsunaga when the bill passed.  While deep ocean manganese nodules were then of particular attraction, turns out that among the wide variety of minerals found in these deposits, rare earths more recently have turned out to be the most important with concentrations as high as 22,000 ppm, making future mining attractive.  Interestingly enough, an area close to Hawaii is being eyed as particularly worthy.

Turns out there was also a third link, for the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute which I directed was selected as one of the two Department of Interior Marine Minerals Technology Centers, initially to study those manganese deposits, but later also for rare earth elements.

There are 17 rare earth elements, and in 2011 China supplied 97% the world production, mostly from Inner Mongolia.  Today, China's monopoly has dropped to 58%:  #1 China, #2 U.S. 16%, #3 Myanmar 12% and Australia 7% are are the leading countries.  Up till the 1990's the U.S. led the world, but environmental concerns dampened production.

China has the most land reserves with Vietnam #2, followed by Brazil, Russia, India, Australia, Greenland and the USA.  

Production of rare earths:

Praseodymium costs $420/pound, neodymium $886/pound, dysprosium $5786/pound, terbium 7947/pound, and scandium $22,660/pound.  The primary use for scandium is in the aerospace industry, like jet fighters, but also in baseball bats.  In comparison, silver sells for $12,034/pound and gold at $98,560/pound.

Why are rare earths important?  They have unique catalytic, metallurgical, electrical, magnetic and luminescent properties, and are an essential part of numerous high-tech devices, from cellular phones to computer hard drives to electric vehicles and flat screen television monitors.  Also a range of defense applications:  guidance systems, lasers, radar, etc.  Just a little bit is required to run a lot.

In summary, the problem with rare earth elements is that they are scarce, or at such low concentrations, that mining is a problem.   The environmental impacts are enormous, generating large volumes of toxic and radioactive material.  Recycling is growing, but the re-processing is expensive.

Needs are skyrocketing, for the annual demand of rare earth metals doubled the past 15 years, and could triple by 2030.  As little as you think might be used in a cell phone, 1320 pounds are required in just one wind turbine!  You would think it would be higher, but each F-35 jet fighter "only" uses 920 pounds of rare earth material.  And remember that some of them cost as much as silver.

To close, The Diplomat earlier this year told a story:

• We are familiar with Japan bombing Pearl Harbor in 1941.  What mostly caused this attack is that the U.S. imposed export restrictions on them for critical raw materials, with one in particular being oil.  They had to do something.

• 
  Today, the resource has changed, from oil to rare earth metals.  From 1985 China has systematically gained a high degree of control over the global supply chain.  While the picture shown above has softened, China still accounts for 95% of rare earth manufacturing.
• In response, Congress has tried to pass legislation to cure this problem, but has failed.
• The future of U.S. security is tied directly to rare earths.

• 
  The recent Taiwan brouhaha brought some of this supply issue to a head, for China made an attempt to make it difficult for Lockheed Martin to completely finish F-35s.
• Without Federal government intervention, the USA is approaching the desperation faced by Japan 80 years ago.

Thus, can the Blue Revolution become a solution to prevent a Third World War between China and the USA?  While no one wants to mess with the deep seabed, can an environmentally acceptable process be developed to mine our oceans for rare earth elements?  Like many of the attractions of the Blue Revolution, we don't know for sure unless we try.

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