OARFISH: ARE THEY AN INDICATOR OF DOOM FOR JAPAN?

I leave for my annual Japan Sakura trip on March 22.  There is a legend that the sudden appearance of the deep sea oarfish omens a coming natural disaster, and, more specifically, the imminence of a serious earthquake for Japan.  The Japanese name of the fish, ryugu no tsukai, translates to "messenger from the palace of the dragon king." 

There were three manifestations last month:

• tangled in a net off the port of Imizu (north-coast prefecture of Toyama)
• two more were discovered in Toyama Bay (indicated in red) nine days earlier.
• the yearly record for Toyama Bay is four in 2015, and a total of twenty since 2009

Yet, earlier this month, The Express said seven of these fish were recently found.  However, according to a competitor, that tabloid tends to be somewhat sensational:

There is bullshit, utter bullshit and Daily Express headlines. 

Remember that Great Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 that led to the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe?  At least 10 oarfish were washed up along Tohoku in 2010, leading to the 11March2011 cataclysm.

There has been recent fear of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough.  However, it is located in the Pacific Ocean, and Toyama is off the Japan Sea on the other side of the country.  Furthermore, there is nothing currently seismically active anywhere in Japan.

Ichthyology Professor Hiroyuki Motomura has a more mundane explanation.  He has 20 oarfish specimens in his collection, and he said that these fish tend to rise to the surface when their physical condition is poor, rising on water currents, and always found dead.  He said there is no scientific evidence of connection to anything, so don't worry  Here is an 18-foot oarfish from off Catalina Island, California in 2013.  No earthquake came.

Japan has recently been spooked by earthquake alarms. Cell phones were warned early this year about a 6.4 earthquake that would strike off the coast of Ibaraki (somewhat south of the Tohoku area), closing Tokyo's transport network.  They were somewhat accurate, for two earthquakes came, but they were of 4.4 and 3.9 magnitude in the ocean, and were not felt on land.  

There was also the true false alarm of 1 August 2016 where a 9.1 earthquake was predicted to decimate downtown Tokyo, but nothing happened.  However, Japan is the most seismically active populated area on Earth, accounting for 20% of global earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater.  There is some measurable earthquake event every five minutes.

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