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Monday, November 23, 2009

TAKAHASHI PREDICTS THE FUTURE

November 23 is not a particularly memorable day in history. Japan has a holiday today, a fusion of labor and thanksgiving, although turkey is not particularly popular. Good a day as any to predict the future. Perhaps a year from now I'll review how well I did.

1. On Global Climate Change: President Barack Obama will find a convincing excuse for not again going to Copenhagen (one Chicago Olympics embarrassment is enough) next month and will send in his place Michelle and Al (Gore). Of course, there will be no congressional legislation passed this year, and, maybe not next, too, unless tens of millions perish in the summer of 2010.

2. On Peak Oil: crude petroleum prices will remain under $100/barrel. (I need to pad my stats.)

3. About the Health Plan: The Senate will find a way to drag this on until December 21 or so and, somehow, find a way to call for a final up or down vote, where VP Joe Biden will cast the 51st vote to pass it. Through this means, ten deserving Democrats will be allowed to vote "no" to help them get re-elected next year. The conference committee will thus bestow a Christmas present to President Barack Obama. Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, whose birthday is today, will also extort a nice gift, for which she has been labeled a prostitute.

4. Bullish on the American Economy: The stock market will not crash this year. The weak American dollar is helping our export enterprises, and the continuing low interest rates will make our national debt a moneymaker. You see, if our country can borrow from foreigners at these purposefully low rates, hoping that we make more from those stimulus funds (which we had to appropriate to prevent a great depression), on net balance, we will be ahead. This is what companies in our free enterprise system do.

5. How high will gold go? Gold hit another historic high today, and has jumped 45% this past year. However, if, in the right box (Calculating the Current Value of Money) you type in $850 (which was the price in 1980) and 2009 (actually, this service only goes up to 2008, but inflation has been low this year), you will get: $2222. Thus, gold, today at $1166/toz (that's troy ounces, where one toz is 10 percent higher in weight than an avoirdupois, the kind you normally use, ounce--or looking at this another way, you will get 3 grams more of gold if you insist on toz over aoz) can almost double to reach an all-time high based on current dollars.

6. What about the Hawaiian Economy? Over the next two years, the slowly improving economy and oil prices below $100/barrel will result in more tourists visiting the State. China and Korea will be expected surprises. This steer (no testicles) economy will be sufficient for our decision-makers to ignore replacing our economic lifeline--the jetliner and jet fuel-- with a hydrogen-powered aircraft or jet fuel from algae. We, of course, should have begun this process 30 years ago after the second energy crisis, for something like this takes at least a generation to commercialize, so it is already too late, for the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming will almost surely force oil prices up to $150/barrel within the decade and tourism will drop by 50%. You think furloughs will help then? While it is, indeed, too late, we can minimize the agony by initiating a crash program for Rinaldo's Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper or hoping for a genetic miracle with marine algae. With Senator Daniel Inouye as chairman of both the full and defense appropriations committees, and President Barack Obama in the White House, surely, there must be a way to get this going.
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The Dow Jones Industrials leaped another 133 points, ending at 10,451, a 13 month high, with world markets all also up, save for Japan, which is on holiday. Yes, gold hit another all-time max, jumping $16/toz to $1166. Crude oil seems content vacillating between $77 and $80 per barrel.

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Remember Hurricane Ida (my blog of November 8) traipsing through Florida and up the Atlantic Seaboard? Well, that was the storm that, beginning Wednesday of last week, and lasting through the weekend, dumped more than a foot of rain in portions of the United Kingdom. Iniki in 1992 caused damages of $2.6 billion (2009 dollars), mostly on Kauai, and could well have originated off the African coast. No storms have been tracked going around the world.

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My life, actually, is a lot more enjoyable than only trying to save Planet Earth and Humanity. Today, I had a typical lunch, this one at Magic Island, where I picked up a plate lunch, container of Pinot Grigio, ate/drank, smoked a Ghurka cognac infused cigar (which came in crystal: a glass container...which means it was very expensive) and was joined by the following:

and a wedding of a Japanese couple:


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The name "Latvia" originates from the ancient Latgalians, one of four eastern Baltic tribes that formed the ethnic core of the Latvian people (ca. 8th-12th centuries A.D.). The region subsequently came under the control of Germans, Poles, Swedes, and finally, Russians. A Latvian republic emerged following World War I, but it was annexed by the USSR in 1940 - an action never recognized by the US and many other countries. Latvia reestablished its independence in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Although the last Russian troops left in 1994, the status of the Russian minority (some 30% of the population) remains of concern to Moscow. Latvia joined both NATO and the EU in the spring of 2004.

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