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Thursday, February 19, 2009

IS THERE SUCH A THING AS CLEAN OIL-SANDS?

Yes, says President Barack Obama, prior to leaving the U.S. for his first foreign trip…to Canada. He also indicated that the U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal, and he is in favor of clean coal technology.  Is this our Green President?  Well, I've previously called him gray, but, has he become the black president?  Nah, he needs to perform a balancing act.  Treehugger indicates that he was just trying to be polite, but preferred that he be forthright.

Clean is one thing, but economic is another. My Huffington Post article on “Renewable Electricity is the Only Viable Option” indicates that most of the renewable electricity options are cheaper than coal with carbon dioxide storage. If this is the case, why bother with clean coal? One reason is that coal-fired electricity is baseload, while solar and wind are not, so, over the next decade or two, some mix of them all will be necessary.

But why is Obama saying that Canadian oil-sands (previously known as tar-sands) can be clean? First, he is going there on his very first international trip, and is trying to be a good neighbor. Second, Canada supplies us with more oil than anyone else, with Saudi Arabia #2 and Mexico #3. Third, there are twice as much oil-sand reserves (mostly in Canada and Venezuela) than conventional petroleum.

Almost two-thirds of Canadian oil is heavy oil of some type. Those oil-sands are stripped mined, and need to be processed with a lot of water and heat, for which natural gas is used. For every barrel of oil produced, about three barrels of water are required. Toxic chemicals also result. This fossil resource is an environmental nightmare.

Further, the economics do not work so well for oil-sands if they are produced "clean."  The estimated cost of mining and refining this oil is from $50 to $70/barrel, without carbon dioxide re-injection. If it is to be clean oil-sands, then the cost could well increase to $100/bbl or more. Seriously being considered is nuclear power to replace methane for the extra heat, but that would probably increase the final cost of the product.

Thus, many oil producers are in real trouble today, for the break even price (BEP) of oil is much higher for countries like Venezuela, Canada, Iraq and Iran. The projected price of oil over the next two years will remain below $60/bbl. All four countries will lose money by selling oil. Even at $90/barrel, Venezuela and Canada will be in trouble if they need to produce CLEAN oil-sands.
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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 90 to 7466, a 76-month low. World markets were mixed, but more up than down. All indications are that continued slouch will continue until mid-year. Oil prices, though, leaped $4.13/barrel to $38.76. Gold slid $5/toz to $976.
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