Over the weekend, there was a flurry of e-mails on the reality of Peak Oil. I guess there is almost overwhelming consensus that this maximum will be attained soon, but the issue is how soon. The following is a response to one of the inputs:
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Dear XXXX:
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I've long been in the top quartile of those who have been concerned about the harm Peak Oil will bring. So, to answer your question, I believe this issue is real and imminent. However, I think it is useful to gain other points of view, as, for example, to quote from Peak Oil Debunked:
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Mills' book's greatest strength is its ability to deconstruct the most frightening of the peak prophecies and show how they are either incorrect, or at the very least, misguided. He is thorough in demonstrating, through both data, and clear, well-sourced arguments, how the extreme pessimists of the energy commentary community are generally incorrect in their arguments and assumptions.
Mills' book's greatest strength is its ability to deconstruct the most frightening of the peak prophecies and show how they are either incorrect, or at the very least, misguided. He is thorough in demonstrating, through both data, and clear, well-sourced arguments, how the extreme pessimists of the energy commentary community are generally incorrect in their arguments and assumptions.
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I've found that, over time, my thinking has changed on a number of matters because of maturity or compelling countervailing evidence. My recollection of all our e-mails is that Peak Oil has already occurred or soon will. Mills is saying, maybe not. He has a lot more experience with this topic than any of us, and, who knows, he might be right.
I've found that, over time, my thinking has changed on a number of matters because of maturity or compelling countervailing evidence. My recollection of all our e-mails is that Peak Oil has already occurred or soon will. Mills is saying, maybe not. He has a lot more experience with this topic than any of us, and, who knows, he might be right.
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While this sort of thinking only further delays the need to make monumental changes now, for some of you who won't have any influence on the big decisions, anyway, perhaps partial acceptance of his stance might serve a useful psychological purpose by minimizing high anxiety about the coming crash. I'm not convinced, but if true, this extra time is just another Gift for Planet Earth and Humanity.
-While this sort of thinking only further delays the need to make monumental changes now, for some of you who won't have any influence on the big decisions, anyway, perhaps partial acceptance of his stance might serve a useful psychological purpose by minimizing high anxiety about the coming crash. I'm not convinced, but if true, this extra time is just another Gift for Planet Earth and Humanity.
Aloha.
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Pat
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P.S. My Huffington Post article, just published an hour ago, is on Where is Wind Energy Today?
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The Dow Jones Industrials edged up 38 to 8116. Asia declined a bit but Europe rose. The upward movement was surprising in that Monday morning brought announcements of 71,400 job cuts. Maybe the rise in December home sales by 6.5% from the previous month was the neutralizer, or perhaps it was the Pfizer-Wyeth merger, showing that deal-making is still alive. Oil largely remained unchanged at $45.70/barrel. Gold cracked the $900/toz line, up $4 to $903.
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