EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COVID-19 VACCINES

 From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732        1185        246        82

July    22     1205     7128        1293     1120       572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835       130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136      1168        82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571       703        85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620       518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748      1224       299      465

Jan     14     4142    15512       1151       189      712          

          19       2804    14760      1183        161     839    

          20       4385    17350      1382        152     566

          21       4363    16578      1335        161     647          

          26       4045    15879      1206        127     680 

          27       3916    16873      1319        134     753

Summary:  According to The New York Times this morning:

New cases in the U.S. have fallen 35 percent over the past three weeks. Hospitalizations have dropped, as well. Deaths have not, but they have stabilized — and the death trend typically lags the cases trend by a few weeks.

Further from TNYT:

We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.

This is the first time in a long time that I've seen some indication of asymptomaticity.  The above statement means that if the TNYT is right, the asymptomatic rate of COVID-10 is 75%, not the 40%, long bandied about by the CDC and Dr. Anthony Fauci.  75% makes sense, as the 2% death rate shown for the world (as of yesterday, 2,182,570 deaths from 101,416,665 cases) should really be 0.5%, pretty much exactly what I have been predicting from the early summer.  0.5% is five times more deadly than the seasonal flu, which has a morbidity of 0.1%.  If you contract this COVID-19, then the odds of your recovery are 199 out of 200.  

Of course, that is the average.  Older people with pre-conditions will not be be so fortunate.  Compared to 18-29 year olds:

• 85 and older   630 times higher
• 75-84              220 times higher
• 65-74                90 times higher
• 50-64                30 times higher

The fearsome statistic is that 39% of all deaths have occurred in nursing homes and similar extended care facilities, where only around 1% of the population lives.  While a case can morbidly be made that this group will soon die anyway, this is nevertheless why they are the ones first getting the vaccination.  Also at the top tier are first-line health workers.  This is more a reward than anything else, for they are around 18% of national population, but represent only 0.5% of all the deaths.  A well-protected hospital worker is less prone to die than a person on the street.  But I'd hate to have such a job, with a need to go to work daily to uncomfortably face those conditions.

Here is the latest tally about vaccines:

• Currently, there are 78 candidate vaccines.
• Today, there are 20 candidate vaccines in stage 3 clinical trials.
• So far, 11 vaccines have been authorized across several countries.

A site you can view if you are old and wondering when you will be getting your vaccination.  The problem is that the Federal government never did quite indicate an exact definition of age.  This depends on your state, and also your county.  I'm particularly interested in the Moderna version, because that is the one I got.

According to a Moderna press release, their COVID-19 vaccine is still effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variants, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, which scientists first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa, respectively. However, the vaccine had a significantly reduced antibody response to the latter.  (So perhaps I should not stop in Africa on my planned global journey.)

The researchers used sera from individuals who had received the Moderna vaccine, and they found no significant impact on antibody response to the B.1.1.7 variant. Although there was a six-fold reduction in antibody response to the B.1.351 variant, the press release explains that the antibodies “remain above levels that we expect to be protective.”

Other issues:

• Moderna is already testing a booster vaccine candidate that specifically targets the spike proteins of the B.1.351 variant.  Thus, I should inquire about a booster sometime later this year.  Next week I'm scheduled to take my second Moderna vaccine.

• 
  A summary of what to know about these mutated organisms.
• Is the Pfizer vaccine killing too many over the age of 80?  Still being investigated, but Norway reports that, on a percentage basis, the deaths are not significantly abnormal.  China jumped on this possibility and called to suspend it.

• 
  President Joe Biden announced he will invoke the Defense Production Act to insure that herd immunity prevails by this coming Fall.

• 
  Both AstraZeneca and Pfizer are having production difficulties.
• Further, there is controversy about the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine for older people.

• 
  There seems to be a growing sense that you should NOT take over-the-counter pain relievers like Tylenol or Advil before taking the vaccination to avoid after effects.  Why?  You could be retarding the vaccine from working.

Back in October, in a world survey, 71.5% of participants reported they would likely take the vaccine, ranging from 90% in China to 55% in Russia to 54% in France.  In December, Pew indicated the U.S. confidence at 60%.  

A more recent report said:

• 47% of Americans are hesitant (meaning 53% confidence).
• By ethnicity:
• 53% are Black
• 50% are Latin
• 48% are of other ethnicities
• 38% are White (confidence of 62%)

At 15 Craigside, where I live, participation was as follows:

• 95% of residents.
• 77% of employees.

There seems to be some mistrust by the staff, and the reason could be related to ethnicity.  Many of them have roots in the Philippines.  In other nursing homes, this worker rate confidence loomed as low as 30%.  In Chicago a cash bonus of $150 was offered to employees of seniors' centers.  A Texas health system is providing $500.

So if President Biden succeeds in making available sufficient vaccines by the end of the summer, how can he get 70% or more to actually comply?  The fate of schools re-opening and spectators for fall sports will be directly affected.

• 
  Over the next few months provide incentives and disincentives:
• Can't enter a federal facility unless you show a card indicating you took the necessary number of shots.  That image to the right should show the COVID-19 symbol.
• Work with states to similarly apply the concept to public transport and indoor/outdoor sites.

• 
  Encourage airlines and cruise lines to require a travel passport showing compliance with vaccination requirements.
• Then there is business-at-large, like that Chicago bar offering a $10 gift card to those who show proof of inoculation.

• 
  If the percentage remains below 60% by August, then, perhaps, a monetary incentive can be considered.  Two months ago, John Delaney, a former presidential candidate, proposed giving people a $1500 stimulus check.  Some economists have said that a third of a trillion dollars to insure for herd immunity will be worth the cost.
• 
  Would Joe Biden instead make taking the vaccination mandatory, on threat of fine or jail?  Almost surely not.  Putin perhaps, or Kim, or Xi.  Donald Trump might well have discouraged vaccinations.

A final item, what about the full opening of schools?  

As of Wednesday, about a third of all students in the United States have not had any in-person education since March, a situation repeated across the world.

Chances are this will largely happen in the next school year, beginning August.

As calls for schools to reopen grow louder across the country, many teachers are saying: vaccinate us first.   

If the Johnson&Johnson vaccine is available in abundance by mid-summer, that could be a viable option, for only one shot is necessary.

On 10 December 2020 I posted:

THE AMAZING STORY OF THE LEADING COVID-19 VACCINES

Finally, the media caught up, for the cover of the latest TIME shows Ugar Sahin and Ozlem Tureci, co-founders of BioNTech, who personally developed and helped inspire the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  They both have Turkish roots, and the story of their life deserved to be told.

In the meantime, keep wearing a mask, maintain social distancing and all those other bits of advice you are by now no doubt sick of hearing.  Here is something sent to me six months ago that still prevails:

One of the recommendations is to drink a lot of water.  This video explains why.

-

HAS THERE BEEN SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN THE COMBINED FIELDS OF HYDROGEN AND OTEC?

 From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732        1185        246        82

July    22     1205     7128        1293     1120       572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835       130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136      1168        82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571       703        85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620       518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748      1224       299      465

Jan     14     4142    15512       1151       189      712          

          19       2804    14760      1183        161     839    

          20       4385    17350      1382        152     566

          21       4363    16578      1335        161     647

          26       4045    15879      1206        127     680

Summary:  The expected decline in COVID-19 deaths is beginning to occur.

Wednesday is science day, so I thought I'd bring you up to date on two related fields for the future of the Blue Revolution and Humanity.  To begin, the answer to the above question is no.  Some progress, of course, for researchers continue to build the foundation for the next generation.  But significant?  No, and mostly because the price of petroleum is less than half of what it was a few years back.

Here is a paper I co-authored 18 years ago for the Japan Hydrogen Energy System Society with Kenji Sumida and Stephen Masutani--The Blue Revolution: The Key to Hydrogen from OTEC.

In 2010 the  Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the U.S. Department of Energy, Okinawa Prefecture and the State of Hawaii signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to work together on clean energy, focusing on ocean thermal energy conversion, for both Hawaii and Okinawa had OTEC research facilities.  We have had alternating annual meetings since then, and I helped Guy Toyama (on my left) host the first few.  

Their 11th workshop occurred last week, and you can access information on their web site.  Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki and Hawaii Governor David Ige opened the program.  Alan Oshima (right) gave the keynote address.    Old pals Mitch Ewan of the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute talked on hydrogen/transportation and Yasuyuki Ikegami of Saga University reviewed the past 10 ocean energy workshops.

Mind you, if you follow the field of hydrogen, there are always various forms of optimism.  For example, the International Energy Agency, long a proponent of fossil fuels, released a favorable study last year, and I quote:

The report finds that clean hydrogen is currently enjoying unprecedented political and business momentum, with the number of policies and projects around the world expanding rapidly. It concludes that now is the time to scale up technologies and bring down costs to allow hydrogen to become widely used. The pragmatic and actionable recommendations to governments and industry that are provided will make it possible to take full advantage of this increasing momentum.

But the field being what it is, 99.9% of industrial hydrogen come from fossil fuels, adding to climate warming.  In a future posting I will delve into some hopeful renewable technologies for the hydrogen economy.

Also, too, Toyota and Honda continue their hydrogen fuel cell efforts.  It was two years ago at a hydrogen gathering in Kyushu University that I last talked to representatives of those companies:

I asked the Honda presenter, Takashi Moriya, the same kinds of questions, and got some further details, although I'm not sure about the accuracy, because of the language barrier:

• Both Toyota and Honda are losing money on each car sale, plus they are subsidizing the cost of the hydrogen.
• They hope that a break-even point will be reached by 2025.
• Expected profits will not reach any kind of optimum until past 2030.

By then, meaning 2030, it is possible that the price of petroleum could rise to $100/barrel or higher.  Then, with significant improvement in hydrogen production, it is possible that progress can occur.  In any event, as the conference was in Japan, I further suggested they look for innovative ways to produce hydrogen, and recommended they read my Huffington Post article entitled, The Blue Revolution is the Optimal Solution for Japan and even the Antonn Brunn Memorial Lecture I gave to UNESCO in Paris on the subject.

Regarding OTEC, Lockheed and China agreed to work together on building a 10 MW OTEC plant ship.  Nothing seems to be happening, but here is an article only a year old still reporting on the effort.  Similarly, Ocean Thermal Energy Corporation, led by Jeremy Feakins and Ted Johnson, has been operating in the Caribbean, here with me at Orchids.  Another article from a year ago:

• 
  Research continues at the 100 kw OTEC plant (right) in Kumejima, Okinawa and the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority on the Big Island.  Both sites are actually producing a small amount of OTEC power.
• The South Korean government was said to be funding a one MW OTEC facility for Kiribati.  But that was supposed to become operational last year, and I haven't heard anything about what happened.
• Allseas Engineering, a Netherlands company, is planning for a 3 MW OTEC operation in the Caribbean.

However, this is now 2021 and I see no definite movement in the building of any new OTEC test facility.  Nor have I read of any game-changing new method of producing hydrogen from renewable energy.

Yet, I continue to be watchful, and every so often am contacted for information.  The timing of the Blue Revolution depends on their progress.

- 

A SIMPLE LIFE

 

Life these days is pretty simple, mostly in my cocoon called 15 Craigside.  Every so often I go golfing, as I will tomorrow, and once a week I venture into town, mostly to purchase meal enhancement items.  

But this latest outing bordered on an adventure.  First I needed to get a safety check, so off I drove to Pacific Honda.  My car had not been been looked at for a whole year, so they talked me into also changing three fluids.  The bill?  $500.  

As I had to wait, I called Rainbow Hair Styling to get my first haircut in months.  I was thinking of holding back another month, which would have then been two weeks after my second Moderna vaccination, but I just couldn't stand having hair touching my ear.  As it is, I've been cutting it every two weeks as best I could, but at this stage, it was just impossible.  I have never in my life gone as long as I have without a visit to the barber, and here is how I look now, after $15, including a generous tip.

It felt like I had lost five pounds of hair, which made a mess of the floor.   As I was in town anyway, and it was around lunchtime, I took another minor gamble.  Marukame was open, that seemed like a reasonable option.  As Long's was across the street, first went there for a can of beer.  A blackberry Steel Reserve at 8% was $1.99.  I ordered a bowl of udon, topped with an egg (Ontama).

When I was finished, I noticed lines inside and outside:

While out there I noticed an orchid tree:

Next to it was something you don't see anymore, a public phone, the kind into which you put coins.  As I was in the process of taking this photo, some lady walked right into the picture.  One of the concerns about downtown Honolulu is that there are suspicious looking people all over the place:

As I was in the vicinity, I picked up some Shanghai Soup Dumplings, which I could microwave for dinner.  Walking back for my car I noticed a new one of the same color:

Not only has the styling not changed, but my previous Fit of a decade ago also looked the same.  Unfortunately, I couldn't get the safety check because the paperwork I gave them had no watermark on the insurance form.  So, when you go, make sure you bring the original.  When I returned home, I checked, and in my file was the one with the watermark.  My current flora of basil and green onions, anthuriums and hibiscus:

In the middle shot is a protest showing my toe nails.  Medicare changed their policy and beginning this year only allows you to get your toenails cut by a doctor every two months.  But this has to be done every five weeks, so I'll need to get a bit creative. On the bottom photo is a flourishing arugula patch under the flower.  

For dinner:

My splurge of the week was duck foie gras pate', which I had with an artichoke, watercress salad, boiled soybeans, a glass of red wine and beer.

There was a second extravagance of o-toro sashimi:

Have you ever seen such marbling in fish?  And only for $89/pound.  That veggie on the bottom is something called myoga.

O-toro sashimi with chopped steak, miso soup and an assortment of drinks.

Tossed in this week was a luau:

I also found a Hawaii gin:

If you can't read the wording, it says:

In the 19th Century, the arrival of English ships in Honolulu Harbor led to a strong Victorian influence.  Named after a sailor's word for "drink," "Fid" Street, now known as lower Nu'uanu Avenue in Honolulu, became the place where thirsty and sea-weary reveled.

I live on upper Nuuanu Avenue.  Instead of the usual enhancement, I used a Japanese pickle, rakkyo, for the resultant Hawaiian martini, with a light drizzle of okolehau, a local spirit made from the root of the ti leaf plant.

I'm now into healthier foods, and the beef is a requirement because my only blood test minor negative was that the red cell count was a tad low.  A lot of vegetables, for that was the solution to keep me satiated until the next meal, because I now don't walk on a golf course twice/week, and I need to maintain a desired weight.  My biggest disappointment of the week was after cutting all that hair off, I still gained two pounds.

-