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Saturday, May 22, 2010

HOW LONG IS A LIGHT YEAR?


In November of last year I began to serialize Chapter 4 on Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.  To gain an appreciation of distance, it is useful to link this dimension with time.  To begin with, the title is nonsense, for a light year is not a dimension of time.  This is the distance light travels in one year.  Rounding it off, call it 6 trillion miles (6,000 billion miles or 6,000,000 million miles).


Thus, one light year is a very long distance.  To travel 6 trillion miles, you would need to make more than 30,000 round trips from Earth to the Sun.

I was on the Big Island of Hawaii for the New Year period in 1983.  On January 3 I happened to be golfing at the Volcano Golf and Country Club.  I forgot exactly at what hole, but in the back nine, the ground shook.  We then noticed that a couple of miles away a lava fountain appeared at Puu Oo.  Kilauea Volcano has now been continuously erupting for 10,000 days.  This is close to a billion seconds.

I had returned to the University of Hawaii a few months previously after a three year assignment working for the U.S. Senate.  Much of my professional life thusly unfolded, plus a decade of retirement...and that was about a billion seconds ago.  Light traveled 186 trillion miles during this 27+ year period.


Let me repeat, light traveled 186 trillion miles from January 1983 till today.  The closest star is Proxima Centauri at 4.2 light years, so if intelligent life lived there, we could have each have sent three messages to each other during this period.  But our Milky Way Galaxy is huge.  Light would take 100,000 years from one end to the other.  Another way of contemplating all this is that during this period from when I saw that eruption of Kilauea Volcano in 1983 till today, light would have travelled just 2.7% across just our galaxy, and ours is not a particularly large one.

How vast is space?  Best estimates are that there are from 200 billion to 400 billion galaxies in our universe, and each galaxy has, oh, 100 billion stars.  Interesting, though, that our neighbor galaxy, Andromeda, is closer to Planet Earth than the center of our galaxy.  Thus, it would take light (or an electronic signal) only 25,000 years to reach the edge of the Andromeda Galaxy from Hawaii.


So, if you're wondering if flying saucers regularly visit us from other stars, consider that the fastest man-made object is Helios 2 at slightly more than 150,000 miles per hour.  A spacecraft travelling at that speed would take almost 20,000 years to reach Proxima Centauri.  If you can remember that far back, Pioneer F(also #10, the one with info about our civilization) is headed for Aldebaran, a star 65 light years away.  We long lost contact with this probe, but if it succeeds in getting there, you will need to wait another 2 million years.

But why go to Aldebaran.  Let's shoot for Proxima Centauri (which, unfortunately, is a Red Dwarf, and pretty useless for life, but we'd be in the neighborhood of Alpha Centuari, only a few miles further) and not be limited by current knowledge.  Nuclear pulse propulsion (which once was Project Orion, cancelled by the 1963 test ban treaty), can get us there in 85 years.  But, for what?  The bottom line is that it would probably take 100 times the current annual energy use of the entire planet.


Today, I recommend that we refine the astroscience, but not spend anything on actual manned space travel.  We landed on the Moon, and that was worth the ultimate fracturing of the Soviet economy. But international grandstanding was apparently necessarily to end the Cold War.  Today, we have no equivalent enemy worthy of such grandeur.  Yes, let's advance knowledge, but the $120 billion Bush the Younger budget and $500 billion Bush the Elder proposal for Man on Mars can be delayed...by about a millennium.






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Friday, May 21, 2010

THE STATE OF PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY ON 21MAY10

1.  A book entitled:





The Great Oil Spill: The Inside Report, Gulf Oil's Bribery and Political Chicanery (Great Gulf Oil Spill Ppr)



was published...in 1976. About that Gulf oil spill today, even BP now admits the amount now might well be 20 times greater than the ExxonValdez's 11 million gallons.  This oil now covers an area about the size of Pennsylvania, and might have caught the Gulf Stream heading around Florida, up the Eastern Seaboard and, maybe, the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt:


2.   Almost a year ago, the House of Representatives passed its climate-energy bill.  Last week, the U.S. Senate finally revealed its version, the American Power Act, with new offshore drilling regulations.  Forget about anything passing this year...UNLESS MILLIONS PERISH FROM A REALLY HOT SUMMER THIS YEAR.

3.  The U.S. Senate passed the Wall Street reform bill by a 59-39 vote, with four Republicans voting in the affirmative.  It's too, too boring to go into the details, but it is significant that the Obama Administration has succeeded in getting assorted legislation through the system.  The House okayed their package in December, so the timing is that a bill might get through Congress as early as next month. 

5.  The National Academy of Sciences called for drastic action on remediating global warming.  This is a significant call for action, as the Academy normally dithers forever before making, usually, a lame suggestion.  They said that the U.S. needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 83% by 2050.  Easy to say, but hard to do.  I thought it was interesting that Nature reported that the oceans have absorbed heat, only since 1993, of about the equivalent of two billion Hiroshima-sized Atomic Bombs.  This, of course, means that our seas are warming, to result in worse hurricanes and, oh no, The Venus Syndrome. However, as I said earlier, no monumental decisions will be made because people cannot identify with an annual sea level rise of fractions of an inch, nor hundredths of a degree warming.

4.  Speaking of predictions, here are mine:

---Even though Lee DeWyze is favored, I think Chrystal Bowersox will be the next American Idol, one of the best things to happen to Northern Ohio in a long time.  It is reported that more and more people are going to church in this region as she edges to the top.  Let's see if praying works.  Hope she doesn't fall into the lifestyle of Janis Joplin, but she certainly has that voice, and is a lot better looking.  You can hear and see her doing Me and Bobby McGee.




















---Nicole Scherzinger will be the next dance star.  Yes, she is from Hawaii, and I am playing favorite, but she exhibits a smoldering sexuality that Ivan Lysacek doesn't.  Of course, maybe this is a gender matter.  Also, one of the judges, Carrie Ann Inaba, is from Hawaii, and, of course, from Punahou (Obama, Wie, etc.).  Nicole went to high school in Kentucky.  Her first hit was as a Pussycat Doll with Busta Rhymes in Don't Cha.


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The Dow Jones Industrials recovered upwards 125 to 10,193, with world markets mixed.  The Japan Nikkei fell 246 (-2.45%) to 9784.  Everyone still blames the European PIIGS.

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Welcome, my 153rd country:

GIBRALTAR POPULATION: 28,796



«  Previous Country | Next Country  »   Back to Top Countries
 Background
Strategically important, Gibraltar was reluctantly ceded to Great Britain by Spain in the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht; the British garrison was formally declared a colony in 1830. In a referendum held in 1967, Gibraltarians voted overwhelmingly to remain a British dependency. The subsequent granting of autonomy in 1969 by the UK led to Spain closing the border and severing all communication links. A series of talks were held by the UK and Spain between 1997 and 2002 on establishing temporary joint sovereignty over Gibraltar. In response to these talks, the Gibraltar Government called a referendum in late 2002 in which the majority of citizens voted overwhelmingly against any sharing of sovereignty with Spain. Since the referendum, tripartite talks on other issues have been held with Spain, the UK, and Gibraltar, and in September 2006 a three-way agreement was signed. Spain agreed to remove restrictions on air movements, to speed up customs procedures, to implement international telephone dialing, and to allow mobile roaming agreements. Britain agreed to pay increased pensions to Spaniards who had been employed in Gibraltar before the border closed. Spain will be allowed to open a cultural institute from which the Spanish flag will fly. A new noncolonial constitution came into effect in 2007, but the UK retains responsibility for defense, foreign relations, internal security, and financial stability.










Map data ©2010 AND, Basarsoft, Europa Technologies, Geocentre Consulting, Google, INEGI, LeadDog Consulting, MapLink, Mapa GISrael, ORION-ME, PPWK, Tele Atlas, Transnavicom - Terms of Use



Of course, many identify with the Rock of Gibraltar, the logo for Prudential Financial.  Created in 1896, it comes with the slogan:  "The Prudential has the strength of Gibraltar."

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Tropical Cyclone Laila killed 6 people and is now dissipating over Eastern India, Tropical Cyclone Baidu at 55 MPH must be affecting oil shipments from the Gulf and there is a first Atlantic disturbance heading for the Caribbean. The American hurricane season officially does not start until June 1.

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Thursday, May 20, 2010

THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION (Part 35): Religion, on Balance, is Probably Good

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 5 on Religion from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:



Religion, on Balance, is Probably Good

        

Richard Dawkins provides a reasonably good argument that religion and God, per se, do not make people good or bad.  However, my gut sense, especially now that I am a neo atheist, is that religion, on balance, is good. Yes, there were the Crusades and the irritating problem in Northern Ireland, plus those Islamic extremists.  But the world is a far, far better place because of the benefits from religion. I am troubled about the basic premises regarding God and the afterlife, and therefore the obvious dishonesty and immorality of it all, but religion has been one of the best social inventions of Man. Early in our development, much of this had to do with power and control, but the fact of the matter is that there are many more plusses going for religion than negatives.

Among the pros (mostly culled from popular U.S. sources--go to the above book for exact references):

o      Students who go to church have better grades and people who attend weekly religious services live 28% longer.

o      For black people, the difference could well be 14 years. Why? The religious tends to use less alcohol, tobacco and drugs, and feel a common bond, reducing life’s stresses. 

o      Praying passes on the problem and stabilizes the psychology. Duke University researchers reported that those 64 and older who attended weekly religious services were 46% less likely to die over a six year period than those who went less often. The religious had lower blood pressures and healthier immune systems. All this is medically proven.

o      Teens who consider religious beliefs to be important are three times less likely to smoke or use alcohol and seven times less likely to use illicit drugs.

o      Religious people are happier than those who are not. After all, what is more important than genuine happiness?

o      If you are caught in a dire emergency, being religious gives you more hope. In the 2003 Bam Iranian earthquake which killed 43,000, a 97 year old woman was rescued after nine days under the rubble, and said that reciting the Koran kept her going. Prayer, in general, has been well studied, and has been validated as being helpful in affecting the condition of a patient. Then, again, other studies have shown contradictions.  But, as for example, that obligatory exchange between the child and Santa Claus, where the parent hears or reads what is being requested, which by some miracle, many times ends up under the Christmas tree. In other words, by mouthing your problems through prayer or confession, someone might hear or overhear and do something to help. The Catholic Church has raised this type of personal communication to a particularly high level, reducing the mental stress placed on its flock and providing the Church with information to develop some useful personal and political response strategy measures.

o      There are religious books equating faith with weight loss, fitness and now, covering almost any subject you want on web logs, or blogs, and even podcasts.

o      Very religious people fear death the least. This was deduced from a longitudinal (meaning that subjects were followed over time) study. I’ve long held this morbid concern that death results in eternal gloom. If I don’t think about it, no problem. But I do, now and then.

Rushton Couborn has been quoted to say, “societies become weak when religious zeal weakens.” This was way back in 1969. Perhaps this is why we are the only dominant world power with considerable confidence since that period to save Vietnam, attack Grenada, start the Gulf War, eliminate the Taliban from Afghanistan and invade Iraq, twice, all by Republican presidents. Today, faith-based programs receive more than $2 billion from the Bush White House, and, generally with beneficial results.  Compared to Israel, Japan and France, Americans today still show all the signs of religious zeal. Plus, we are, maybe therefore, #1. I guess that must be good.

There is, though, a new study that suggests that religion does not produce healthier societies, and, in fact, might have just the opposite effect. Higher rates of belief in and worship of a creator correlate with increasing incidencies of homicide, juvenile and early adult mortality, sexually transmitted disease infection rates, teen pregnancy and abortion. In other words, the more religious a country, the more dysfunctional the society. The question could not be answered whether religion causes dysfunction, or whether they just flourish in these socially disordered areas. So, maybe Richard Dawkins is right. I guess, like in medicine, contradictions abound.

A following section also delves into the economic implications of religion, and the signs are mostly positive. Church attendance provides financial advantages through relationship building.

Finally, whether they like it or not, churches have become the solution for the homeless problem, or should. Church space is not used at night and the membership generally wants to do well. A well-organized community effort, moving these dispossessed to the religious “home” of their choice, will spread the predicament, provide contacts with caring members and furnish a second chance. There will be problems, of course—for the homeless are just that because they are on drugs and have a high incidence of dysfunctional characteristics—but, certainly, there should be solutions. Military bases, public schools and other concerns with capabilities, land and a roof to offer should be part of the team, of course, but churches are best. The problem is that most churches are still looking the other way. In time, success stories around the world will galvanize religion to work with government and industry to help solve the homeless problem.


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Oh, oh.  The Dow Jones Industrials crashed 377 today, now down to 10,068.  Worse, there was a precipitous fall at the end of the day.  World markets also all dropped, with the Japan Nikkei now at 9757.  Gold decreased $11/toz to $1185 and oil eased up to $70/barrel.

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There are now two tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, but neither is expected to attain any significant strength.  Tropical Cyclone Laila, though, did make landfall yesterday, killing 6 in India.

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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

ALOHA "LOST", ALOHA "HAWAII FIVE-0"

Hawaii Five-0, aired from 1968 to 1980, and was the longest running crime show until Law and Order.  The original series featured Jack Lord as Steve McGarrett and a swarm of local Hawaii actors and entertainers.  You can run into the show anywhere in the world now through syndication.  As a useless aside, The Ventures covered the song, hitting #6 in 1968.  They also were the band behind Bobby "Boris" Pickett's Monster Mash, Hollywood Argyles' Alley Oop and the The Lonely Bull, featuring Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass.

The fictional state police force was called 5-0 for this 50th state and almost went by the TV title The Man. Richard Boone and Gregory Peck were sought for the lead role, and Lord was hired just a week before initial shooting.  He became iconic and lived the rest of his life in an apartment across from the Waialae Golf Course.

Five-0 virtually created the filming industry in Hawaii, and next, Hawaii Five-0, again this Fall, starring Alex O'Loughlin (photo above) in the lead role, with Daniel Dae Kim, appropriately enough, straight from the Lost cast, as Chin Ho Kelly.  Chin Ho owned the Ilikai Hotel, where McGarrett is seen during the opening credits.  I had lunch at Magic Island today with Leighton Chong, the legal counsel for the Blue Revolution.  That's me with Ilikai in the background.

Magnum PI, with Tom Selleck, was created to replace Hawaii Five-0, and ironically enough, Hawaii Five-0 returns just as Lost departs.  After a six year run, ABC is royally sending Lost off by running the acclaimed pilot episode on Saturday night, followed on Sunday with a two-hour retrospective, the two and a half hour finale and Jimmy Kimmel having his own "Aloha to Lost."  I always felt a little guilty about never having viewed even a full hour of Lost, so I will devote my weekend to this show.

Lost won an Emmy in Year One, and went overboard on creativity with a smoke monster, polar bear and magic, getting more bizarre with time.  It was, though, intellectual, with references to Jean-Jaques Rousseau and the Casimir Effect.  The show did not portray the touristy Hawaii, so it wasn't quite the free travelogue that will be Hawaii Five-0.  Like the ice-breaking original Hawaii Five-O, Lost also set a multi-racial trend.  There might be some answers on Sunday, but look on this conclusion as the foundation for a couple of films.

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The Dow Jones Industrials fell 67 to 10,444 (-0.63%), with world markets all down. Europe dropped almost 3%.  Gold sunk $32/toz to $1193 and crude oil jerked back up to $71/barrel.

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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

VANESSA REDGRAVE AND FRANCO NERO

Grace Onaga of New York City responded to my blog of yesterday about Letters to Juliet with this statement:

Vanessa Redgrave fell in love with Franco Nero when they were playing Guenevere and Lancelot in the Camelot musical a long time ago.  They had a son but never married and Vanessa went on (after divorcing Tony Richardson) to a distinguished acting career and years of companionship with Timothy Dalton (one of the former James Bonds - I loved him best).  In 1996, Vanessa and Franco met up again and got married.  When I saw the trailer for Letters,  all I could say was "oh my". 


So I did some additional research.  A Huffington Post article by Maria Rodale provides more details.  She referred to a Los Angeles Times review, and, to quote:


One is the line in which Claire tells Lorenzo "sorry I'm late," for keeping him waiting for 50 years. "And I say," explains Nero, " 'when we speak about love, it's never too late.' I was so proud about those two lines."
But Nero didn't mention during the interview he actually wrote those lines. "It did mean a lot to them," says Winick. In fact, when the couple learned that the scene had been cut, they called the studio. The lines were put back in.

If you haven't seen the movie, Claire is Vanessa Redgrave and these statements were said when she finally, finally, finds her first love, Lorenzo, which probably means nothing if you haven't seen the film, so in a few words, let me crystallize the essence of the script:

Remember Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet, and the tragedy of a love unfilled?  Well, yes, Shakespeare is British, but the story unfolds in Verona, Italy.  There is thus this mythical wall in Verona where people place notes to Juliet (just think of unrequited love), and, to make a long story short, a letter Claire (VR) placed 53 years before when she was a teenager (hidden behind a brick) is found, leading to a response...inspiring VR to return from England to Verona to find her first love, Lorenzo Bartolini.  Crazy, but what is life all about?  Unfortunately, this is a popular name in Italy, and with each mis-contact, hope diminishes...until by chance VR sees a young boy who she says looks exactly like LB, leading to, yes, his grandfather, the real LB, who dramatically rides up on a white horse, and just happens to be her husband, Franco Nero (or at least he plays Lorenzo Bartolini).

As heartwarming as all this is, VR has survived through three recent tragedies:

-  Her daughter Natasha Richardson, husband of Liam Neeson, was killed in a ski accident on 18March2010.

-  Her brother Corin, a respected stage actor, died of cancer on 6April2010.

-  Her sister Lynn Redgrave (Georgy Girl--click to hear the song by The Seekers) died of breast cancer on 2May2010.




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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk 115 to 10,511, while world markets were mixed.  The price of crude oil is plunging, now down to $68/barrel, a 20% drop in two weeks.  The equivalent percentage drop from today would mean a DJI of around 8400.  Gold slipped a buck to $1125/toz.

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Tropical Cyclone Laila is now at 63 MPH and will make landfall at Andhra Pradesh within the next 24 hours.

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Monday, May 17, 2010

MY DATE WITH PRINCESS K, JULIET AND THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATOO

I  use the singular, because I saw Princess Kaiulani, Letters to Juliet and The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo on the same date.  The first is historical, the second that ideal chick flick and the third, well, was brutal.

As I reported on PK in my recent blog on Remarkable Women, let me just say that while I think Q'Orianka Pilcher was a tad too headstrong to play the fragile and delicate beauty that was Kaiulani, there is no one else that has the box office credibility (Pocahontus on The New World) and ethnic looking traits.  Pilcher's mother was Swiss and her father Peruvian, a good hapa quality.  More so, Q'Orianka lived in Hawaii during her early formative years and began hula lessons at the age of 5.  No doubt at least one Hawaiian activist played a role in editing the script, for the story was well-balanced.

The one question that came to mind was:  What happened to Kaiulani's British boyfriend, Clive?  Theophilus Harris Davies co-founded what became one of the Hawaii Big Five, Theo H. Davies, in 1884, and his son, T. Clive Davies, joined the board in 1898, about right, as Kaiulani returned to Hawaii in 1897 and passed away two years later.  His son, Geoffrey Clive Davies (photo on right), became CEO.  The company picked up the franchise for Pizza Hut and Tacos Bell, plus Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz, but Geoffrey sold the firm to Jardine Matheson of Hong Kong in 1973 and passed away in 2005.  Geoffrey was father to Susan, Cynthia, Alison and Peter.  I wonder if any of them lives in Hawaii?

Letters to Julia featured a nice tour of Tuscany, and I probably enjoyed it for the wines and food.  Reviews were not flattering, except everyone raved over Vanessa Redgrave.  See the trailer in HD, for it says that this is "THE GREATEST LOVE STORY EVER TOLD."

The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo is a gripping, sexually charged, high tech, detective-like, sub-titled movie from Sweden, which was a huge hit in Scandinavia (most viewed Swedish film of all time in Norway and Denmark), opening early in 2009 as Men Who Hate Women and this spring in the U.S. as TGWTDT.  It is the first of a trilogy from books by Stieg Larsson, who passed away in 2004.  TGWTDT is the first of three, with The Girl Who Played with Fire and The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest already showing in Europe, and yet to arrive in this country.  You never heard of Larrson, but he was the second best selling author in the world in 2008 and has sold 20 million copies of his trilogy.  All are supposedly riveting with happy endings.  In TGWTDT, Lisbeth Salander, the disturbed heroine with that gigantic tatoo (and you will see all of it...in graphic detail), makes out like a bandit at the end.  Noomi Rapace and MIchael Nyqvist play the odd couple in all three films.  This could well have been the next best movie I've seen since The Hurt Locker.

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The Dow Jones Industrials snuck up 6 to 10,626, while world markets were mostly down.  Gold fell $6/toz to $1226 and crude oil sunk below $71/barrel.

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There is a mild disturbance at 40 MPH east of India, which could strengthen into a cyclone in a couple of days and make landfall...or not.