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Friday, October 31, 2008

CHAPTER 2: CRIME AND WARS (Part 6)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.
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Cocaine, Marijuana and Ice

Cocaine, a crystalline tropane alkaloid, was first isolated by German chemist Albert Niemann in 1860, and has a chemical formula too long to include here, but is simply, C17H21NO4. The powder is commonly snorted, that is, inhaled through the nose. It can be dissolved in water and injected, and smoked as crack. The drug has been used by South American Indians for 5000 years. Mama Coca was considered to be a benevolent goddess, and chewing the coca leaf provided contact with the spiritual world, while maintaining endurance. In pre-Columbian times, coca was reserved for Inca royalty. The Spanish conquistadors initially banned it, so, it is said, the Catholic Church took on the cultivation. In recent times, during the 1980’s, the American CIA teamed with drug dealers to fight communism.

South America (Columbia, Peru and Bolivia) produces most of the world cocaine, but cultivation has dropped from 221,200 hectares in 2000 to 159,600 in 2005. Cocaine production has remained relatively constant, as efficiency has improved. Columbia is the largest producer of cocaine, but it is reported that Bolivia has almost doubled its production since current president Evo Morales took office and is already the second largest producer to Columbia. Almost all the cocaine produced in South America finds its way to the U.S. Cocaine is valued at $1,762/kg.

I’m writing this, but not quite believing it. You surely have seen those tiny black poppy seeds on cakes and rolls. Well, eating two rolls or a slice of poppy seed cake will, for 24 hours, produce a positive drug test from your urine sample. There is some exaggeration here, for the official test was raised in 1998 to a higher level, but, yes, that innocuous bakery additive comes from that same poppy flower from which heroin is produced.

Cannabis (marijuana and hashish) is grown in 176 countries, and even in Hawaii, where Maui Wowee and Kona Gold are noteworthy. There is paleontological evidence that this plant was smoked as far back as the Neolithic Age. Three thousand year old mummies from China showed such evidence, too, and are mentioned in Greek and Roman bacchanalias. Certainly, cannabis was used by Hindus in India and Nepal, and as a religious sacrament by ancient Jews and early Christians.

It is tetrahydrocannabinol, normally 10-15% of hashish, that creates intoxication. Hashish is the dried resin from the flowering tops only of female hemp, Cannabis sativa. Marijuana is a concoction of various parts of the plant, and has one-eighth the potency.

While the prevailing sociological and medical politics are that cannabis is addictive, causes psychosis, augments cancer and heart ailments, and can affect perception, memory and coordination, there is countervailing evidence to the contrary, or, at best, only little evidence of medical support. An important point is that anything to excess can be dangerous. All in all, marijuana and hashish appear to be less harmful to the individual and society than any illicit drug, or, even, tobacco and alcohol. But there is bio-development progress, as breeders have created a strengthened indoor-produced sinsemilla, a highly potent form, obtained from unpollinated female plants.

How significant is marijuana? Well, it has been reported that, at $35 billion/year, pot boasts the largest farmed crop, bigger than corn or wheat.

There are amphetamines, or a-methylphenthylamine, a synthetic drug that is used as pep pills and called Bennies. Then came methamphetamine, a slight chemical variation, with a stronger effect and more addictive properties, known as speed. A particularly dangerous variant is crystal methamphetamine, a colorless and odorless form of d-methamphetamine or methamphetamine hydrochloride, which is inhaled or smoked, although it can also be injected. It resembles shiny blue-white rocks and is, therefore, called ice. The cheapest form is a smelly yellow ice called crank. Up to 5% of high school seniors have used ice at least once.

These non-biological, amphetamine-type stimulants were once mostly produced in Europe, but the danger is that with a few accessible chemicals, they can be churned out in any home, and are. Use causes violent behavior, paranoia, anxiety, confusion and insomnia. Psychotic symptoms can last for years.

There was a period when crystal methamphetamine (ice) began to replace cocaine, until 2006, when enforcement success hiked the price of ice from $2,000/ounce to $3,500/ounce. Cocaine held below $2,000/ounce. In any case, both drugs are truly bad.
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The Dow Jones Industrials climbed 144 to 9325. World markets were mostly up a few percentage points, although the Japan Nikkei dropped 5%. Crude oil increased $2/barrel to $68/bbl. About monthly drops, commodities (like corn and gold, which, for example, sunk the most since 1982; copper plunged 36%), experienced their worst month in 52 years. With all our Wall Street travails, our American dollar strengthened, indicating that the World is in worse shape.
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All quiet with regard to hurricanes.
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Thursday, October 30, 2008

CHAPTER 1: CRIME AND WARS (Part 5)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

Opium and Heroin

Opium contains two alkaloids, phenanthrenes (morphine, codeine, C17 H19 NO3) and benzylisoquinolines. First exploited as a narcotic in Sumerian and European cultures 6,000 years ago, Muslims spread the use to India, then on to China. Clearly, throughout time, ancient priests and warriors found ways to utilize this powder. Homer described such a combatant, and so did the founder of medicine, Hippocrates. Laudanum, opium in ethanol, was widely prescribed into the 19th century.

For centuries in China, even a small village without a rice shop could have an opium distributor. British merchants in the early 1800’s smuggled this drug as trade for tea, leading to the Opium Wars, through which the U.K. gained control of Hong Kong.

Chinese emigrants employed for the transcontinental railroad brought this habit to the U.S. Opium was smoked, but derivatives were used in various tonics. President Theodore Roosevelt convened an international conference in 1902, spearheading the control of this opiate at a time when 27% of the adult male population of China was addicted. Yet, if it is true that 6,630 metric tons were produced in 2006, and the price on the streets is $16,000 per kilogram, then the value that year was in excess of $100 billion, with 150 times more going to drug traffickers than growers. And that’s only opium, which the general populace thought only was smoked by old Chinese men in dark dens. Further, this opium, losing 90% the weight, can be processed into heroin, which has a value of about $300,000/kg. We are now up to $200 billion/year if the entire crop were converted to heroin.

With apologies to Teddy, the media reports that international drug control as a multilateral program is older than the United Nations, even older than the League of Nations, beginning in 1912 to deal with opium. This has been a success story, for then, the production of opium was 30,000 metric tons. Today, it has dropped below 10,000 metric tons, so with four times more people today, the reduction of use per capita is down more than 90%. But was it this international organization, or just, plain, China, and how it governs? A century ago, with one third the present population, there were 25 million opium users. Today, there are 8.5 million drug addicts with a much larger population. The incidence is still high, but certainly better.

Regarding supply, in 2006, Afghanistan produced 92% of all the opium (obtained by drying the milky juice of the unripe seed pods of poppy), with Columbia, Mexico, Peru and the Golden Triangle (Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Viet Nam) supplying the rest. Heroin (which is diacetylmorphine, C12H23NO5, is converted by your liver to morphine) is synthesized from opium. In 2007, the Afghanistan supply went up 34%, but their world share only increased by 1%, meaning the rest of these countries also had in total a similar increase.

To make heroin, the raw opium is first boiled in water. Slaked lime (calcium hydroxide—which is made by mixing lime, or calcium oxide, in water) is then added to form a solution, which is filtered to remove any impurities. Ammonia is used to precipitate the morphine, which is filtered out as white chunks of morphine base, known as Heroin Number 1. But this is not yet real heroin. Heroin #1 is dissolved in acetic acid and heated at 85 degrees Celsius for two hours, chemically producing Heroin #2 in solution, to which sodium carbonate is added to produce heroin base. This is still not real heroin. To produce Heroin #3, or smoking heroin, #2 is mixed with hydrochloric acid, dried and crushed into what generally looks like brown sugar, and is thusly so called. At this point, the heroin is 20-30% pure. To make Heroin #4, or injectable heroin, both ether and hydrochloric acid are added to #2, filtered and dried. This 80-90% heroin can then be injected.

Thus, if one had that early vision of only smoking opium in hazy oblivion, well, the true danger is injecting the refined product into the blood stream. Where total cultivation dropped from 275,000 hectares in 1991 to 150,000 today, production is bullish and growing. Looks like we did not decimate the Taliban, for they are largely responsible for this recovery.
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The Dow Jones Industrials leaped at the opening bell and settled plus 117 at 9108. Hong Kong rebounded 13% and Japan 10% today. European markets mostly increased a couple of percentage points. Crude oil slipped a couple of bucks to $65.21/barrel. If you follow inventory and supplies, it appears as if government and private reports manage to somehow surprise buyers with continuing regularity. Anyway, the latest Energy Information Administration report showed higher inventories for what is projected to be a mild winter. Gold dropped $27/toz to $736/toz.
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No major storms over the ocean around the world.
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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

THE WALL STREET CRASH OF OCTOBER 29

In 1929 Wall Street first crashed on Thursday, October 24, then continued through Monday and Tuesday, with October 29 dealing the temporary death blow. The market had been rocked with metastability for months, as on September 3, the Dow Jones Industrials had increased fivefold to 381.17. On Black Tuesday, October 29, a record 16 millions shares were traded (not be exceeded for 40 years) dropping the DJI to 230. By November 13 the Dow was down to 199, then peaked at 294 in April of 1930, only to drop again to 41.22 on July 8, 1932, the lowest in the 20th century. There are frightening similarities of that period to today, nearly 80 years later.
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Today, October 29, the DJI merely dropped 74 to 8991. The market waffled all day awaiting the Federal Reserve decision to drop the prime interest rate to 1% (where it was as recently as 2004), which stimulated a three hundred point rise, only to precipitously drop more than 400 points during the final twenty minutes, to slightly jerk upwards in the final minutes to 8991. This means that the most credible borrower will be able to get a 4% loan from a bank...not you. Can you believe that the DJI has yet to post two consecutive days of gains this month, which ends on Thursday. Except for Germany, European markets leaped up more than 5%, with Japan increasing by almost 8%. It's that volatility factor that is dangerous. We show all the signs of 1929.
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So that I would place my money where my pontification suggests, I thought I would access my internet Ameritrade and E-Trade accounts and buy Microsoft, General Electric and Johnson/Johnson. To my shock, I found out that I am actually ahead from the last time I checked a year or so ago, at least on E-Trade. Well, I did not have enough money in those accounts to do much, so I thought I would instantaneously transfer funds from my bank. This I did by clicking on the appropriate sites, but, there, apparently, are people and policies to hurdle, and finality takes up to a week to go through the motions. Can you believe this? If I flew over to their headquarters and handed them the money it would be faster, by several days. So I called Ameritrade and was told that if I immediately went to my bank and wired them this money, I might just make it for tomorrow's opening. This I did, and found out that money is not wired out of Hawaiian banks after 10AM if to the continental United States, and the whole process would take 2 days to become official. What? Here I am, then, at the threshold of taking advantage of the stock market when prices are down, and I can't do a thing! Now, if the market experiences a truly horrific Black Thursday tomorrow, I will be in great shape.
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Gold increased by $4 to $757/toz and platinum dropped 14 to $816/toz. Silver looks particularly attractive, having inched up 6o cents to $9.93/toz, because it exceeded $50/toz in the 1970s. The world market for silver is increasing while supplies are disappearing. I wonder if I should take this step, as I can't seem to buy stocks today. A discussion on what is a toz and other precious metal secrets can be found in the Golden Evolution (religion) chapter of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. What has gold to do with the afterlife? Read the book and find out.
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Crude oil jumped 7.6%, or $4.77/barrel, to $67.50/bbl. All commodities surged on the one half of one percent prime rate cut. Why did stocks drop? This rate cut was anticipated yesterday, when Wall Street prices skyrocketed up. If you understand the process, rate is seconday to liquidity operations, something way beyond my comprehension.
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No storms are currently being tracked in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans?
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

THE VENUS SYNDROME

Chapter 5 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth dealt with a worse case scenario for global climate change. Seth Borenstein posted "Methane Thaw Worries Climate Scientists" yesterday in The Huffington Post. I felt compelled to comment:
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Chapter 5 of a book I wrote last year, SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, delves in some detail on the potential danger of methane. The above article seems to imply that methane is only a recent phenomenon. Actually, since 1750, carbon dioxide has increased by only a third, while methane has MORE THAN DOUBLED. My concern, in particular, are the marine methane hydrates found at the bottom of the ocean, for there is something on the order of twice the amount of energy in these deposits than that of all the known oil, coal and natural gas. There are various theories purporting that methane might have been the true culprit in global warming through geologic time. The fear I have is that man-made global warming might trigger the more fatal release of ocean methane. Mere species extinction, slightly warmer temperatures and slow sea level rise are inconveniences. What happens if we totally lose control and are threatened with a temperature of 900 degrees F? In June I posted a two part series in the Huffington Post on the THE VENUS SYNDROME.
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The Dow Jones Industrials experienced their second highest one day jump on record, gaining 889 to 9065. As indicated in my previous posting, bargain hunters were lurking, plus, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday. The world markets also increased, with Germany soaring slightly more than than the U.S. (both about 11%), Japan Nikkei 6% and Hong Kong Hang Seng 4%. But is the bottom yet to be attained, for this volatility is dangerous. The NYMEX Crude Future increased to $64.53/barrel, anticipating a second OPEC production drop.
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No hurricanes/typhoons in the Atlantic or Pacific.
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Monday, October 27, 2008

THE WORLD ECONOMY LOOKS TERRIBLE

I'm on travel, and in consideration of the exhorbitant rate I'm paying for this connection, will keep this short. The world stock exchanges largely tanked today, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng market free falling by 13% and Japan Nikkei by 6%. The Korean Kospi stayed barely positive because interest rates were significantly dropped. Average European stock exchanges slipped about 5%, with Germany being the only non-negative.

The Dow Jones Industrials largely stayed positive, remained close to even for a while, then, in the final half hour or so fell about 300, only to recover in the final few minutes, ending down 203 at 8176. Is that closing recovery a sign that the bottom has been reached? Probably not.

Interesting that gold prices have waffled in the $700+/toz range, when the bottom has dropped out of the stock market...particularly as, soon after the Lehman debacle, gold suddenly jumped from $740 to $925. The explanation is that this recession is international, in combination with about half a dozen other reasons.

Crude oil settled down to $62.81/barrel, although the Dated Brent Spot is now at $59.50/bbl. Read about $50/bbl oil in Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth.
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No active hurricanes anywhere, although Tropical Cyclone Rashmi just made landfall close to Kolkata (formely known as Calcutta) in the North Indian Ocean.
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Friday, October 24, 2008

OUR ECONOMY AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

The economy is everything these days. The Dow Jones Industrials are 40% lower than they were a year or so ago and 20% for the month. Crime will need to wait.
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The Dow Jones Industrials futures hinted that there could have been a drop of up to 1000 points today. Well, at the opening bell, this seemed to be happening, and fell a bit more than 500 at very high volume. However, as the day unfolded, this crash recovered some and meandered down in the 200 to 400 range The volume dropped after the first five minutes. Don't be particularly surprised if the Dow Jones Industrials fall below 8000, if not today, then next week, as European markets all dropped about 5% today, and the Japan Nikkei fell nearly 10%. However, it is the final hour of this final day of the week that could be scary, and that is three and a half hours away. Then what will happen on Monday, when those mega-crashes tend to occur? WE ARE IN RECESSION. IS THE DEPRESSION COMING?
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With all the above and lowered demand, OPEC suddenly (they normally hand-wringe all day, if not days, but today made the decision in two hours) agreed to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels/day. The only sticking point was that 2 million was close to being the target. Yet, December futures at $50/barrel tripled because even with this announcement, crude prices dropped into the mid $60/bbl range and the Dated Brent Spot at midday was at $60.63/bbl. The only conclusion to all this is an expected very serious recession leading to major demand slips into next year.
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Our auto industry is particularly in bad shape, as GM stock was 15% lower at this point and Chrysler has announced serious layoffs. Gold appears to be finally increasing, $30 to $746/toz at this point. Mergers will be occurring, unemployment will drop further and all international governments will further cut borrowing rates. But General Electric (down from 40 to 17), Microsoft and Johnson and Johnson are becoming extremely attractive buys.
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We now await Monday when votality is at max and metastability is the norm. Well, I'm off to catch a plane and will report next on Black, Red or Green Monday. Who knows what it will be. Certainly, Barack Obama, now in Hawaii, is torn between the horrible state of the economy, but the solidifying assurance that a terrible economy only insures his election on November 4 as President of the United States.
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A tropical depression is strengthening southwest of southern Mexico moving north, to turn west in a day. Now with 40 MPH winds, it might become a tropical storm soon, but should largely dissipate in a few days.
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Thursday, October 23, 2008

CHAPTER 1 (Part 4)

The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.
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Drugs

If there is one thing different about crime a half century ago (when I was in high school) and today, it is the current presence of drugs, and how family and society are now affected. Much of the following comes from the early version of the 2008 United Nations World Drug Report. The English version is all of 7.3 MB and 310 pages long. According to this tome, 200 million people have used illicit drugs at least once in the past 12 months. That’s about 3% of the world population.

Tobacco, a licit (legal) psychoactive substance, is used by more than one fourth of the world adults (approaching 2 billion smokers), versus 4% on marijuana and 1% for all other illegal drugs. This legal drug (tobacco) is, actually, a relative newcomer, compared to the illegal variety, and probably gained prominence in the Americas in the early AD period. Columbus was given a few leaves, but threw them away, coining the term after his visit to Tobago. Portuguese and Spanish sailors spread the habit to Europe. Virginia colonists in the later 16th century were responsible for the introduction into England, where it was then called, sotweed, about the time Sir Frances Drake passed on the practice to Sir Walter Raleigh.

The more expensive drugs induce crime because they are illegal, and this is the case because our authorities have declared them bad for you. There are 40 million problem drug addicts, or 0.6% of the world population. Thus, it is this relatively small portion of society that is tormenting the rest. As any amount of threat will not cure these souls, a simple solution would be to legally, morally and responsibly terminate this small fraction causing all the problems. Is this possible? Not today.
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The Dow Jones Industrials increased 172 to 8691, although the world stock exchanges mostly slightly dropped today. Crude oil eased up to just below $70/barrel.
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A tropical depression popped up south of Mexico, should move north, then west, but weaken in a couple of days.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

CHAPTER 1 (Part 3)

The following excerpt is from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.
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Crime Statistics

The island of Dominica was visited by Christopher Columbus in 1493. The French claimed it in 1635, but ceded it to the U.K. in 1763. Dominica, which should not be mistaken for the Dominican Republic, another Caribbean nation, became independent in 1978. Most of the 70,000 citizens are descendents of African slaves. If you scan through Wikipedia or the CIA World Factbook, you might be tempted to plan a vacation there, although the latter reports that there is 23% unemployment and money laundering enforcement is weak. Actually, Dominica leads the world in crimes. A selected ranking from the latest, and seventh, United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems, covering the 1998-2000 period, can show the following (all, per 1000 people): (sorry about the crummy tables, and it gets worse...go to the book above if you wish for the columns to line up)

o #1 Dominica 114
o #2 New Zealand 106
o #3 Finland 102
o #4 Denmark 93
o #5 Chile 88
o #6 United Kingdom 86
o #7 Montserrat 80
o #8 United States 80
o #10 South Africa 77
o #11 Germany 76
o #12 Canada 75
o #13 Norway 72
o #15 France 62
o #20 Switzerland 36
o #24 South Korea 32
o #30 Uruguay 21
o #34 Japan 19
o #40 Tunisia 12
o #47 Thailand 9
o #50 Malaysia 7
o #57 Papua New Guinea 2
o #59 India 2
o #60 Yemen 1

There are a lot of surprises here. Make that, incredible illogicalities. New Zealand at #2 and Finland at #3? Papua New Guinea at #57? I’ve been to all three places. The first two, I thought, were really safe and the third, truly dangerous. Is good, bad? Bad…good? What does all this mean?

Well, the 2006 Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index lists Finland, New Zealand and Iceland at the top as the least corrupt countries in the world. For the record, the U.S. is #20, better than Spain (#23), but not as honest as France (#18) and Japan (#17). What this appears to mean is that honest countries report all their crimes. So, maybe, Dominica should not be tarnished by this crime ranking. Thus, be careful of statistics.

In the same 7th UN crime survey (per 1000 people):

ASSAULTS MURDERS ROBBERIES
v #1 South Africa 12 #1 Colombia 0.6 #1 Spain 12
v #2 Montserrat 10 #2 South Africa 0.5 #2 Chile 7
v #3 Mauritius 8 #3 Jamaica 0.3 #3 Costa Rica 5
v #6 U.S. 8 #5 Russia 0.2 #11 U.S. 1.4
v #12 Iceland 5 #12 Papua NG 0.08 #19 Russia 0.9
v #31 Dominica 1 #24 U.S. 0.04 #27 Papua NG 0.6
v #50 Costa Rica 0.2 #50 Tunisia 0.01 #50 Macedonia 0.1
v #57 Azerbaijan 0.03 #62 Quatar 0.01 #64 Quatar 0.005

Overall, NationMaster.com reports that Columbia has 0.62 crimes/1000 people, South Africa (0.50, #2), U.S. (0.043, #24) and Qatar (0.001, #62).213 Another way of looking at this is that Columbia has about 15 times more crimes than in the USA and more than 600 times that of Qatar.

Well, I’ve heard that South Africa and Colombia are bad places, and I personally almost was robbed in Spain, so, the worst countries, here, make some sense. Yet, I was recently in Cartegena and did not feel in any way threatened, so there are micro-climates of good and bad within one country and any city. Yet, as you can see, if you want to avoid crime, live in Azerbaijan or Qatar. Also interesting that Costa Rica is about the safest place for assaults, but the third most prone to robberies. The United States is not a good place to be for crimes…but maybe that is because we report well. As for example, in police efficiency (there were only 17 countries listed):

o #1 United States 89%
o #2 Canada 87%
o #3 New Zealand 79%
o #16 Italy 52%
o #17 Netherlands 52%

You can reasonably guess that most other countries, if they were included, would have fared worse.

In the United States, Statemaster.com reports:

o Lynchings (1882-1968): #1 Mississippi (581), #2 Georgia (531)
(six states had zero)

o Murder (per 10,000): #1 DC (3.6), #2 Louisiana (1.3)
#51 Maine (0.1)

o Burglary (per 10,000): #1 North Carolina (117), #2 Arkansas (108)
#51 North Dakota (30)

Since 1993, property and violent crime rates have dropped by more than half, while rapes and robberies by two-thirds. Now, there is “only” one violent crime each year per 47 residents. Why the drop? There are more criminals in prison and there are 100,000 additional police officers. It can be better, for in Honolulu alone, which is not far from the norm, there was in 2006 a backlog of 61,500 bench warrants (mostly for traffic crimes) because of a lack of personnel. The city of Chicago saw a 25% drop in killings to 445 for its 2.9 million citizens. Yet, Berlin, with 3.4 million, experienced only 71 murders in 2004.

There was a disturbing reversal beginning in 2007, though, as Google on July 24, 2007 showed that the crime rate was rising in New Orleans and San Bernardino, and murder rates in New York City and Philadelphia. Murders and robberies increased in 2006 for the second year in a row, said the FBI, and watch out if you are a transgender lady of color in Northern California, as murder rates are really skyrocketing.

Part of the problem with crime is that perpetrators are not caught. Only 15.6% of all crimes were solved in the U.S. in 2002. In Hawaii, 90% of crimes remain on the books, but most of this is due to an 8% conviction for property (burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft) crimes. Then when you hear of car thieves actually arrested and convicted innumerable times…only to steal another car…the conclusion is that a whole lot of cars are stolen. A paltry 3.6% of burglaries were cleared in 2004. These are generally carried out by those on drugs, so while this sorry type just has to be lacking in sense, it then must be that it is really safe to live this lifestyle. Then, if, somehow, they are thrown in jail, you, the taxpayer, will be saddled with their food, air conditioning and whatever bills. There has got to be a better way.
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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk 514 to 8519. The NYMEX Crude Future settled at $67/barrel, with the Dated Brent Spot at $63/bbl.
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For first time in a long time, there is today no major storm being tracked.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

CHAPTER 1 (Part 2)

The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:



HISTORY OF CRIME

Human nature being what it is, if there were no formalized social controls, the law of the jungle would take over. There are some, though, who believe that a civilized society is by nature honest and good, and Chapter 5 on religion will further discuss whether a Supreme Being is necessary for a crime-less future.

In any case, we are not mature as a civilization to enjoy utopia, so crime enforcement is necessary and defined by law, which somewhat differs and changes among cultures over time. Some form of government must be the operating element to impose order, carry out adjudication and punishment, and administer a penal system.

The Sumerians 4000 years ago had written criminal laws. A couple of centuries later, Hammurabi, ruler of Babylon, became known for his code of 282 entries, where “an eye for an eye” governed. Later, Roman and Teutonic laws formalized a court system and provided for compensation. Behind all this was the notion to maintain peace among clans and states. The position of the government came into prominence in England after the Romans left, thus the common law was born. Thomas Aquinas wrote about the natural law theory, to wit, it is morally appropriate to coerce citizens to conform to any morally acceptable law.

Napoleon codified Roman law. Forty-nine states use English common law. Louisiana follows Napoleonic Law. At one point in my graduate career at Louisiana State University, I contemplated switching to law, but, after taking two courses, decided that this odd system might not be ideal for Hawaii. English law is based on court precedent, that is, the ruling of a judge can limit, if not control, a judge in a subsequent case. The Code of Napoleon takes the citizen law approach, that is, allow for the judge to interpret the legislated laws.

Our judicial system, to put it mildly, seems to be imperfect. How can we convict and jail a reasonably good citizen and model homemaker, Martha Stewart, and release so obvious a murderer as O. J. Simpson and child abuser, Michael Jackson? This is all the more ironic, because blacks are traditionally stereotyped by law enforcement agencies as guilty. Or, what frustrates the common citizen: how can a car thief be convicted a fifty times and still steal another vehicle? A solution will be offered, but, first, let us look at where it is safe, and not.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 232 points to 9034. Will it drop to 8000 or lower? Companies are consolidating or downsizing. Unemployment is rising. Crude oil dropped a dollar to $71.18. The Dated Brent Spot is $66.77/barrel.

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Tropical Storm Omar is headed to oblivion. There are a couple of minor tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, one just above Le Reunion Island.

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Monday, October 20, 2008

CHAPTER 1: ENDING CRIME AND WAR FOREVER (Part 1)

From SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

Black and White: Crime and Punishment / War and Peace

In my Book 1, both black and white were used to represent subject areas, but never together. Black is the absence of color, and white, or transparent, could well include the full spectrum. They are opposites…ying and yang…good and bad…crime and punishment…war and peace.

I draw on the masterpieces of Russian writers Fyodor Dostoevsky and Leo Tolstoy because the former was an engineer and the latter a part time teacher. I am both. In the first novel, for two murders, the punishment was hardly worthy. In the second, while there was considerable agony from war, there was not much of a peace. There is a lot of character building and details about living in Russia in the 1800’s, but in the end, what do you really get out of these notable works of fiction? Yes, something about life in Russia, then. Some might say, too, the satisfaction of having experienced greatness. Simple Solutions has only two characters—you and me. But we might accomplish a lot more than the two novels. Perhaps we will be able to provide the ultimate punishment to eliminate crime and the rational key to world peace. If we fail here, in this first chapter, there are a few others to which we can contribute.

My interest in crime and wars influenced me to look into studying law forty years ago when I applied to the New York University School of Law, was accepted, but till today feel a bit guilty for not informing them I was not coming. I do know that in parallel, I also took steps towards becoming a graduate student at Louisiana State University in chemical engineering, and went there because they offered a full fellowship, plus the sugar industry continued to pay me for a while if I did so. Later, after I got my PhD, during my early academic career at the University of Hawaii, the local School of Law began operations in 1973, the same year John Houseman in The Paper Chase, convinced me that I should add a juris doctorate to my record. Again, there was something about the challenge. This is why, perhaps, people run marathons. However, sanity prevailed, I continued being an engineering educator and never ran the marathon, leading to my career in energy and extending to this book.

But on to the subject at hand, so let me start with the two most significant attacks on the United States, leading to World War II (WW2) and the World War against Terrorism (WWT), although a case has been made that terrorism is just a weapon, and the real world war is religious-based (WWR). In my mind, religion could well be the ultimate solution to wars, and is so pervasive, that I am spending a whole chapter on the Golden Evolution, the simple solution for religion, which itself, is in deep trouble.

On December 7, 1941, as a 15 month old child growing up in Honolulu, I witnessed the bombing of Pearl Harbor by the Japanese, or, at least was so told by my mother that she pointed to the smoke while I was in her arms. Two thousand four hundred and three Americans died, plus 59 Japanese airmen and sailors. A few more were killed almost 60 years later, on September 11, 2001, when Islamic terrorists hijacked four commercial jetliners; each loaded with nearly 25,000 gallons of jet fuel, and crashed them into the north and south towers of the World Trade Center (WTC) and the Pentagon, with the fourth falling in a Pennsylvania field. Nineteen terrorists died, plus 265 on board the planes, 125 in the Pentagon and 2,603 in the World Trade Center, with 24 still listed as missing and presumed dead. But this should not have been a particularly big surprise because al-Qaeda in 1993 detonated a 1,500 pound bomb in the basement of the WTC, hoping to wipe out up to 250,000 people, but ended up only killing six.

Pearl Harbor I don't really remember. Being an American of Japanese extraction, I have pondered on what would have happened if WWII did not occur. As terrible as any war is, I came to a conclusion that I, personally, actually benefited from this inferno, and to boot, the USA subsequently ascended to become the world economic leader and the champion for peace and prosperity. A close analysis shows that continued access to oil was an important reason why we won WWII, and the need to continue to protect this natural resource is mostly why WWT/R started. In fact, it turns out that we also won WWI because the Allies were able to convert from coal to oil more effectively.

Thus, one way to avoid future wars is to remove oil as a competitive resource. Solar, renewable, and all sustainable resources are de-centralized and universal. We will largely be able steer clear of these major conflagrations when Green Enertopia, the Free Hydrogen or Biomethanol Age and the Blue Revolution begin to flourish.

But, in a sense, war is not necessarily bad. The Falklands victory buoyed the spirits of Margaret Thatcher, Grenada gave Ronald Reagan and the American people our first military victory in a long time and the first Gulf War, plus eradication of the Taliban in Afghanistan, reinforced our international credibility. In each case, the Good Gal/Guys entered into a state of war through provocation. We did not start it. We wanted to be of assistance, and we benefited.

So, then, is war justified? War is bad, not good, though sometimes necessary. World War I was supposedly fought to end all wars. World War II stopped Hitler and the spread of fascism. Starting wars is immoral, but value systems are not the same. China will more and more become a concern because of its large size and a dissimilar culture. But there is a simple solution.

I was there via the omnipresence of television, lying in bed, on 9/11, and actually saw, live, that second crash into the south tower of the World Trade Center. It was 6:03AM in Hawaii. I, too, was stunned. How could this be happening to the United States?

Yet, the U.S. was not really threatened with extinction. Pearl Harbor could have been an imminent threat to my life and country, but terrorist acts today seem not unlike the television series, 24. Yes, terrible, but safe, for most of us. Subsequent to 9/11 I wondered about the passing of the Patriot Act and was troubled by those vexing airport rituals. Invading Iraq the second time was okay, for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could have been there, and the Bush Administration did a great P.R. job on the public. Hey, world oil was protected and our globe was now a better place with Saddam disposed, and who knows, those other Arab Nations could have subsequently fallen in line. President Bush and Vice President Cheney would have then been considered beneficent heroes. The crucial factor in this Domino Theory was that Iraq would have served as the model for the rest of the Middle East to become democracies. But a few things went wrong.

We are all becoming increasingly frustrated at the inanity of how we are going about saving us from what, terrorists? Almost every day on the evening news, and certainly when I travel by air, I see increasing amounts of my tax dollars being spent protecting me from a rag-tag bunch of Islamic fundamentalists with a point to prove. Richard Reid, the shoe bomber, or his handler, is right up there with the person who invented those ads that fall out of magazines. From April 2005 to July 2006, 16 million cigarette lighters were confiscated at airports, representing 80% of all seized items.256 It costs the Transportation Security Administration $6 million/year just to dispose of them, but the absurdity is that personnel could have spent the time looking for more dangerous articles. Or maybe fire everyone, stop being so paranoid, save a lot of my tax dollars and go on with our life, as those same terrorists, with what they carried, probably would pass through the TSA check routine today.

At this point, these amorphous terrorists are actually winning the war, maybe even smirking during prayer time. Yes, we won the Battle of Iraq, but we are losing the more important mission of securing the peace, and, like Vietnam, looking for any responsible way out.

I once work for U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, who had, as his noblest goal, the establishment of the U.S. Peace Academy, for, if we are training warriors for war, he felt we should spend more to instruct peacemakers for peace. In the early 80’s, the Matsunaga Commission listened to what amounted to 6,000 pages of testimony, and recommended a national peace academy. Matsunaga was the lead sponsor of a Senate bill that was adopted on June 22, 1984 to establish a U.S. Academy of Peace. The furthest this went, though, was the establishment in 1986 of the U.S. Institutes of Peace to conduct research on the subject. More recently, Representative Dennis Kucinich, in 2005, introduced a bill to establish cabinet-level Department of Peace and Non-violence. He reintroduced HR 808 with 65 cosponsors in 2007.

I have on my office wall a press release from Spark M. Matsunaga entitled, “Matsunaga on Crime, Punishment and Energy.” Dated April 1, 1981, it says Sen. Spike Matsunaga introduced a bold and historic measure called the National Crime Prevention, Research, Development and Demonstration Act, featuring mild to severe torture. This was apocryphal, of course, and only a reaction of fellow office-mate, Harvey Meyerson’s, and my, playful response to a recommendation of Sparky’s re-election campaign to feature crime as his major platform focus, something we thought was idiotic on strength of his past legislation. Certainly, this press release never was even shared with the staff, for we probably would have been fired if it ever got out.

Well, this is a fitting segue to start with combating crime. Why link crime to war? Well, both kill, or, otherwise inconvenience, our society. Can you imagine a world without crime and wars? Well, then, why not also eliminate natural death? Sure. But that’s in the next chapter. What about needless infighting in a family or the injustices that goes on in jungles? Where there are people, there will be differences of opinion. In the jungle, that’s the law of nature…survival of the fittest…evolution. Let us focus on crime and major wars, something fundamentally human, yet potentially manageable.
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The Dow Jones Industrials leaped 411 points to 9265. Stock exchanges the world over experienced similar gains. The New York Stock Exchange just had the largest one week gain in five years, so, is the recession over...will stock prices now continue to increase? There is a sufficient number of "experts" who feels that there will yet be a third mini-crash. We'll see. In the meantime the New York Mercantile Exchange Crude Future increased to $75.46/barrel. It is reported that OPEC is talking about cutting production by as much as two million barrels/day on October 24, but Goldman Sachs speculated this would not affect prices much. One wonders why anyone reads these wild guesses because they have more often than not proven to be wrong.
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Tropical Storm Omar continues to meander north northeast in the middle of the Atlantic, with 40 MPH winds, and should soon become a remnant.
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