ENERGY MATTERS

The big news of the day is the longest presidential address to Congress in history.  President Donald Trump talked for a little more than 100 minutes.  I watched the whole thing, and wonder why.

• 
  Many Democrats did not even show up, and some just left during his speech, with Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) being booted out.  Several held small signs.  Women wore mostly pink.  Others wore blue/yellow in support of Ukraine.
• He mostly bragged about doing so much.

• 
  He repeated his assertion to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal.
• Assailed the Biden Administration a lot, calling Joe the worst president in American history.  One of his lies/exaggerations, for polls have Trump as the worst.  In that survey, Biden came in as the 14th greatest president.
• Here is one example:

“Over 130,000 people, according to the Social Security databases, are aged over 160 years old,” Trump asserted. He then added there are 1,041 people over the age of 220. The claims have been thoroughly debunked, with even his own Social Security chief explaining it is a misreading of an ancient federal database, one that could cost $9 million to update, and none of those “people” were getting monthly checks.

• 
  He will get some viral moments.

If the cruelty was the point of the first Trump term, then the chaos is the thesis of the second. As TIME’s Eric Cortellessa reported going into the evening, Trump’s team was more interested in staging moments to go viral than presenting an operating argument for actually governing. He did not leave the Capitol empty handed. There were plenty of headlines, made-for-TV moments, and memes that partisans of all stripes can exploit.

• 
  Watch this CNN video fact-checking Trump.
• Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan) gave the Democratic rebuttal.  Brought up the Democracy at risk matter.  Said Ronald Reagan is rolling in his grave.  Did well.  Looks like a future leader.

But Democrats are treating all this in a business as usual manner.  They think Trump is irritating so many people who supported him in the 2024 presidential election, that they will return Democrats to power in the U.S. Congress.  But this is not how it works anymore.  Trump has the power to cancel the mid-term election in 2026.  Might be unconstitutional, so the Supreme Court could yet check him.  However, he now is in full control of the Federal government, such that he can set aside Democracy and just make himself a dictator.  Anyone who seriously objects will, like in Russian, just be thrown in jail or executed.  Supreme Court?  He will find a way to neutralize them.  Details?  To come.  There are few options to check him, and one failed last year, twice.

The Supreme Court actually made an anti-Trump decision, rejecting his bid to freeze $2 billion in foreign aid.  Is this just an aberration, or are they beginning to show some conscience?  

My sci-tech Wednesday posting will return to Energy Matters, a newsletter sent to me by the American Energy Society.

• Below, graphic indicating the net loss of 780 coal-fired power plants since 2000.  

• Global investment to decarbonize heavy industries totaled just $31 billion in 2024, a decline of 60% compared with 2023. Clean steel projects took the biggest hit in financial commitments. 
• 
  EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is preparing to revoke $20 billion in grants already awarded, including the bank that oversees the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.
• Total job terminations so far: 400+ at EPA, 2,300+ at the Interior Department, 1,800+ at the Energy Department, 3,400+ at the US Forest Service, and thousands at various other agencies; these totals do not include forthcoming dismissals at NOAA, NASA, Justice, nor the thousands of people who have federal awards to conduct research in universities and national laboratories.

• 
  Spotlight: A number of climate science SMEs are concerned that extreme weather is becoming literally unpredictable.  
  • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate pattern can no longer be used to forecast how mild or cold the winters will be in the Northern Hemisphere. 
  • Flood modeling is unreliable (Fathom chief scientist Oliver Wing criticized some widely used models, suggesting that "a chimpanzee could do a better job.")
  • Extreme weather has become unpredictable, both in forecasting (frequency and intensity) and in consequences (on crops).
• 
  Environmental scientists predicted that El Niño, combined with decreasing air pollution that cools the earth, would cause temperatures to increase. But those two factors are not sufficient to explain the world’s recent record heat. There is a third possible factor: fewer clouds, which could add to a feedback loop that leads to more warming.
• Global air traffic rose by 10% to an all-time high last year. (Note: Air travel already accounts for 2.5% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.)
• How well is the world doing to meet the Paris Agreement?

The UK is the only economically developed country in the world that is on pace to meet its Paris emission targets. 

• Here is something you did not know:

Sub-marine transcontinental cables handle nearly 95% of internet traffic and $10 trillion in daily financial transactions. As reliance on these cables increases, so does risk. Between 100 and 200 cables are damaged every year due to accidents, natural disasters, or deliberate sabotage.

• 
  I  always thought Hawaii was #1, but, Google AI says that California has the highest gas prices in the U.S.  For one, they have the highest gasoline taxes in the country.  Also:

California is a “gasoline island.” It does not connect with any multistate logistics network, which means there are no pipelines that supply gasoline from other states. Ocean shipments into the state are restricted by the US Jones Act. Further complicating matters, California requires a special blend of gasoline. The result: gasoline imports add up to only 8% of California supply; the other 92% is nearly all produced at California refineries.

• 
  Know anything about Lucid Motors?
• An American auto-tech company involved with electric vehicles and powertrains. 
• However, majority (60%) ownership by the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia.
• First formed in 2007 with founders, Bernard Tse (who came from Tesla), Sam Weng, Sheaupyng Lin and Britisher Peter Rawlinson.  They have a link to China.
• 
  Headquartered in Newark, California.
• Went public in 2021
• Began selling their Lucid Air sedan made in Casa Grande, Arizona in 2021.
• 
  In late 2024 made available its Lucid Gravity SUV to compete against Tesla's Model 3.
• Uses Panasonic lithium-ion batteries.
• Has a 450-mile range.
• 0-60 time less than 3.5 seconds.
• Starting price of $80,000.
• However, their midsize SUV will be built in Saudi Arabia, for sale in late 2026 for $48,000.  May be called Earth.
• 
  From Energy Matters:

Tesla EV sales are declining, but sales of Lucid's Gravity are soaring, primarily because the SUV has improved recharging capabilities. Gravity can add up to 200 miles of distance on just 12 minutes of charge and has a maximum range of 450 miles on a single full charge.

• Again, something you probably did not know:

- Spotlight: Transformers. The single greatest bottleneck for the US power grid is the availability of electricity transformers. There is limited global manufacturing of the devices that are essential to stabilizing power system voltages and efficiency. 

 

• The US system has 60 million to 80 million distribution transformers but demand is surging.
• About 55% of residential transformers are more than 40 years old.
• There are over 80,000 transformer types throughout the US power system (image insert: a sample of transformer types).
• A new transformer ordered today will take about three years to get delivered.
• A surprise:

Global electricity use is on pace to increase by 4% annually, the equivalent of adding Japan’s annual electricity consumption every year.

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FAT TUESDAY

But first, a few Trumpy matters:

• The tariff wars against Canada, Mexico and China have begun.
• The result was a stock market fall.  Not crash yet, but is that coming?
• 
  President Trump will address a joint session of Congress tonight.  Should be entertaining, with surprises and made-for-TV moments.  Many Democrats will boycott, and those females who show up will wear pink and white.  Six years ago they wore white.
• Trump paused military aide to Ukraine after that Oval Office skirmish.  Would have been warranted if THIS happened.

Now, on to the topic of the day.  I once lived in Louisiana.  Mardi Gras was the big event for the state.  Shrove Tuesday is the last day before Ash Wednesday beginning Lent, (the Christian fasting season when certain foods are avoided) and is the final day to feast on rich foods like red meat.  Thus, this is also called Fat Tuesday, the culmination of Mardi Gras.  I report on this event annually.  Here is one from four years ago.  

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Kind of a wild segue (and you should skip to the bottom line of asterisks if you hate these diversions), but I noticed from that posting of those 25 million body cells passing away, depending on how long you took to read this sentence, this could be anywhere from 1 million to 25 million/second.  

• So I checked another 2021 article which said your body makes 3.8 million new cells every second, 86% in your blood blood, plus 12% gastrointestinal epithelial cells.  I guess the obvious connection is that 3.8 million cells die every second.
• Makes sense, maybe it does take an average of 6.6 seconds to read that sentence.
• But I checked again, and the Google AI consensus today is 1 million cells/day.  
• But another Google AI check (Generative AI is experimental. Learn more) said:

The average adult human body loses 50 to 70 billion cells each day, or 4.2 million/second, which is in the ballpark of the first two. This is about 1% of all the cells in the body. 

Unfortunately, I did yet another search, back again to 2021, Scientific American, which reported that your body replaces about 330 billion cells/day, also about 1% of all your cells.  But that is 229 million cells/second, not even close to any of the above.  If you think The Bible or Trump administration spread confusion, biological science, in this case, is worse.  

So what is the true answer?  Don't know.  The Karolinska Institute of Sweden was founded in 1810, and in 2024 said 1 million dead cells/second.  Easy to remember number, and as good as any to use today.  But so simple that I do wonder.

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The date of Fat Tuesday varies from year to year because it is linked to Easter Sunday, which changes by astronomical calculations.  The earliest Easter is March 22, and latest April 25, more than a month.  Thus, Fat Tuesday can be any date from February 3 to March 9.  For the next few years.

• 2025: March 4
• 2026: February 17
• 2027: February 9
• 2028: February 29
• 2029: February 13
• 2030: March 5
• 2031: February 25
• 2032: February 10

Mardi Gras (which means Fat Tuesday) is a festive period for certain spots around the world like Rio de Janeiro and New Orleans.  Parades in New Orleans began on January 6 (12 days after Christmas), with March 4 this year being the final big day.  History:

• The origins of Mardi Gras go back to medieval Europe, passing through Rome and Venice from the 17th century into the French House of Bourbons, where it was called Boeuf Gras, or fatted calf.
• On 2March1699, French-Canadian explorer Jean Baptiste Bienville arrived 60 miles south of New Orleans, and named it Pointe du Mardi Gras, for it was the eve of the festive holiday.

• 
  In 1702 he establish Fort Louis de la Louisiane, which later became Mobile, Alabama.
• In 1703 this tiny settlement celebrated America's first Mardi Gras.

• 
  New Orleans was established in 1718 by Bienville, where Mardi Gras became a regular event.
• Much of these festivities were disorganized, with the first carnival in 1781.
• It took until the late 1830s for New Orleans to hold street processions with maskers and all the dazzle.
• The Mistick Krewe of Comus was formed in 1856, adding floats to the parade and a masked ball only for Krewe members.

• 
  The King of Carnival, Rex, was invented in 1872 to preside over the first daytime parade.  Visiting was the Russian Grande Duke Alexis Romanoff, whose family colors are purple, green and gold.  These became the official colors of the Mardi Gras:  purple for justice, gold for power and green for faith.

• 
  In 1875 Governor of Louisiana Henry Warmoth signed the Mardi Gras Act, making Fat Tuesday a legal holiday in the state, and it still is.
• You'll mostly remember those free beads tossed from the floats and Pat's Hurricane.
• They call the New Orleans Mardi Gras the Greatest Free Show on Earth.

Other cities along the Gulf Coast with early French colonial heritage, from Pensacola, Florida, and Galveston, Texas, to Lake Charles and Lafayette, Louisiana, and north to Natchez, Mississippi, and Alexandria, Louisiana, have active Mardi Gras celebrations.  Then it expanded to St. Louis, Missouri; Portland, Oregon; Pensacola, Florida; Galveston, Texas; and Folly Beach, South Carolina.

The first Mardi Gras in Rio de Janeiro was in 1723.  The celebration goes on for 5 days, with the culmination this year on March 4 with the largest audience in the world of 2 million.  It is called Carnaval here, and the Sambadrome plays host to the biggest party on Planet Earth.  Watch a 2024 video by Wyatt and Reyka.

It's considered safe enough at Carnaval, but certainly not for me.  Read this, and you won't go.  Just trying to get a ticket into the Sambadrome is painful, and can range from $100 to $1000.

So how safe is New Orleans for Mardi Gras?

• The last time I went was more than half a century ago.  It was not safe, but not dangerous.  Went twice, and had no problems.  It was fun.
• However, today, even Tripadvisor shows caution.
• From Tulane University.
• Watch a CBS newscast.
• People can wear a mask, might be intoxicated....
• Not a good place to go anyway, for Orleans Parish has the highest murder rate in the country!
• The bottom line:  I wouldn't go today.

Maybe another Mardi Gras might be considered.  Here is one listing of the top 8 Mardi Gras celebrations in the world.

• Lonely Planet lists Venice, Italy as #3.
• Binche, Belgium.
• Sydney, Australia's Mardi Gras began in 1978 as a gay rights parade.  Today, lot of colorful floats and glittering outfits, and remains out of the ordinary.

What is the drink of Mardi Gras?

• The classic New Orleans Mardi Gras cocktail is Sazarec:  rye whiskey, absinthe, Pechaud's bitters and sugar.  Here are some others, led by Pat's Hurricane, something I've had in the past in Pat O'Brien's bar.
• In Rio, it is the national drink, Caipirinha:  cachaca, lime and sugar.

One final warning:  thunderstorms, strong winds and the threat of tornadoes have disrupted parades and outdoor celebrations in New Orleans today.  For the Mardi Gras, most of the activity is outside.  Happy Fat Tuesday anyway.

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TRUMP AND OSCAR

First, the international media seem to have come to a conclusion that the world has dramatically changed, for there is now good reason to believe that the USA has become a partner of Russia.  Next, the New Power Axis with China, North Korea and Iran?  Incredible.  Further, the 25% tariff on two of our closest allies, Canada and Mexico, will most likely take effect tomorrow.  From the New York Times this morning.  But something first from Justin Trudeau.

• 
  Trump directed federal agencies to consider ways of bypassing environmental regulations to expand timber production in national forests.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says the measles outbreak in West Texas is a top priority. But he has shied away from loudly and directly encouraging parents to get their children vaccinated.  By the way, I'm adding this, but the U.S. in 2000 officially announced it had eliminated measles.
• There are now 100 active suits in federal court against Trump administration actions. The White House is mounting political attacks on judges who rule against it.
• Trump has severely damaged the government’s ability to fight climate change, David Gelles, Lisa Friedman and Brad Plumer write.
• So based, much wow: On X, Elon Musk tries to use the language of the internet to marshal his followers in support of DOGE.
• Media lawyers and some of Trump’s allies say the concessions have emboldened the president’s legal team. More lawsuits are likely. They will probably be accompanied by other attempts to delegitimize the press — an important strategy for a White House that uses lies to advance its agenda.

Any chance that Democrats can summon the guts to all just not show up at President Trump's joint congressional address tomorrow night?  The answer will be no.  Don't confuse this with a State of the Union address, which usually occurs in January or February of the second and third year of the term, fourth too if re-elected.  Guarantee that all members of the Supreme Court and his cabinet will appear.  Well, actually no, for there will be a designated survivor.  

• Picking this failsafe person only began in 1981 during the Reagan reign.
• Of course, you've seen the ABC series starring Kiefer Sutherland, that aired from 2016 to 2019.  I remember watching it, but only today found out that Rotten Tomatoes gave it a mediocre 71/53 score.
• Here is one example.

Alberto Gonzales, Bush's attorney general, was the designated survivor during the 2007 State of the Union. He said White House chief of staff Josh Bolten called a few days before and gave a couple of options for where he could hunker down. 

Gonzales chose to be in flight, and he arrived at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland to find “members of every major department and agency” there to ride with him. They carried thick binders stuffed with memos and protocol instructions, just in case.

He said there were a series of briefings that may have stretched right into Bush's speech, which he watched from the air.

“It was during that time that it sort of suddenly hit me, if something happened in the Capitol and everyone's killed, that I'd be president,” Gonzales said. "It's sort of sobering. And you wonder, would I be up to governing a wounded nation?”

• Hey, that was interesting.  Here is another DS story.

“It focuses your mind. It also enhances your prayer that it doesn’t happen to you,” James Nicholson, who was President George W. Bush's veterans affairs secretary and designated survivor during the 2006 State of the Union, said of possibly becoming president after a cataclysmic event. 

Nicholson said Bush’s then-chief of staff, Andy Card, had asked him a few weeks before the State of the Union to take on the role. He was a natural fit given that his agency played an important role in continuity of government exercises due to its numerous hospitals and clinics nationwide. 

Nicholson flew by helicopter to a destination only divulged once he was in the air, and later sat in a command center, where he underwent briefings before watching Bush’s speech. 

He was served a “wonderful” dinner, prepared onsite by personnel from the White House mess, though he can't recall if it was T-bone steak or prime rib or something similar. “It made you think that, at least, if this awful thing happened, you’d be well fed," he said. 

“The enormity of that job. You think about, remote as it is, this is something you might have to do,” he said of becoming president. Nicholson's wife was attending the State of the Union, meaning that if something happened, she could be among the victims, which only added to the pressure. 

When it was over, Nicholson wasn't asked to fill in his predecessor in the role, Gonzales, or future designated survivors. 

“We don’t have a club,” he laughed. "We should.”

How will our lives be affected by all the above?  Enjoy your current state of confusion and concern.  It will probably only get worse.  On that note, let me escape to entertainment and the Oscars.

• The big winner was Anora, a comedy-drama about an exotic dancer from Brooklyn who marries the son of a Russian Oligarch.  Rotten Tomatoes 93/89.
• Won five Oscars, including Best Picture, with the upset of the night Mikey Madison as Best Actress and Sean Baker for directing.  25-year old Madison edged out 62 year old Demi Moore.

• Only cost $6 million to make.

• 
  The three-hour epic about a Hungarian architect and Holocaust survivor, The Brutalist, won three, including Best Actor, by Adrien Brody.  Rotten Tomatoes, 93/80.  This is his second BA award, and both as a Holocaust survivor.
• Conan O'Brien did fine as moderator, and will no doubt be asked to repeat next year.
• Fashion is always the highlight on the Red Carpet.  Here is Ariana Grande:

Cynthia Erivo.

Doja Cat.

Timothée Chalamet.

Jeff Goldblum.

And the victorious Anora group.

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