DEMOCRACY vs DICTATORSHIP

We are on the Norwegian Encore from Miami to Southampton, UK, and will be at-sea for the next few days.  This gives me an opportunity to wonder how the USA got to the point where a convicted criminal, liar, misogynist and all-around lout, former president Donald Trump, has a 50-50 chance of getting re-elected tomorrow.

About the voting public.

• Most of them have gone through our K-12 school system, which, in addition to academics, teaches you to be a good citizen, with some pride regarding our country.  Just about all states require students to daily recite the Pledge of Allegiance.  Written by minister Francis Bellamy in 1892, it is short, simple and meaningful.

I pledge allegiance to my Flag and the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

• This was adjusted in 1954 when President Dwight Eisenhower, concerned about the Communist threat, asked Congress to add "under God."

I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

• 
  No one remembers this early version anymore, but until World War II, there was a military salute, where you lifted your right hand to salute the flag, then at the words, to my Flag, you gracefully extended your palm upward towards the Flag, remaining in this gesture, until the end, then immediately drop your right hand to your side.
• However, this salute too much resembled the Nazi salute, so was changed to place the right hand over the heart.
• True, saying the Pledge of Allegiance, and believing it to be meaningful, are not the same.  But this exercise is probably better than nothing at all.
• 
  Second, most Americans are religious.
• Gallup has been regularly asking since 1944, Do you believe in God?
• In 2022, 81% responded, YES.  Mind you, this was 92% in 2012, so this drop was rather drastic.
• Further, the answer was YES to 98% in the 50s and 60s.
• Gallup has another poll, which in 2023 indicated that 12% of Americans do not believe in God.
• 
  The whole point to this religion matter is that, one would think that most religious people would not vote for an individual who lies, breaks laws, thinks only about himself and is vitriolic to the point of being dangerous.  This person is Donald Trump, whose character is the polar opposite of Kamala Harris, who is trustworthy and promotes freedom.
• In any community, down to most families, there are extremes.  There are good people and bad.  All in all, though, the U.S. has had a populace that has come together during wars, calamities and crises.
• If not for our country, Hitler and his Axis partners could well have prevailed during World War II.  Where would you be had that occurred?
• If the U.S. had not prevailed in the Cold War, which ended in 1992, where would Humanity be today?

• 
  We are today at a similar tipping point.
• If Donald Trump is tomorrow elected President of the United States, all signs point toward the end of our 249-year Democracy, to a future Paternalism, a dictatorship, not unlike North Korea where the person in power determined the next leader.
• The Supreme Court on 1July2024 ruled that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted for what he does.  There was some gray language, left to lower courts to act, but the judicial system largely makes reversal unlikely, for the final decision still remains in the hands of the Supreme Court.  They have taken away any guardrails that checked Trump in his first presidency.
• There will be no opposition.  Those that try will will be jailed or killed.
• There will be no future election.  They don't vote in North Korea, and elections are determined by Vladimir Putin in Russia.  Not much different in China.  
• 
  Donald Trump wants to join the Dictators for Life Club of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un.  They will form a new axis, providing for you a life now seen in North Korea, Russian and China.

• If Kamala Harris is elected, the American Democracy will continue.  Simple as that.

A superficial analysis is the following.

• The latest (October 27) Gallup poll shows that there are 29% Republicans, 32% Democrats and 37% Independents.
• Trump will get his MAGA group no matter what he does
• MAGA Republicans, as defined, are estimated to account for 33.6% of all Republicans and 15.0% of the adult population of the US.
• Thus, there are 76.4% of Republicans who are not MAGA types.  
• There seem to be more and more Republicans becoming never-Trumpers.
• Thus, if only a very few Republicans either not vote on November 5 or vote for Harris, that should be enough to doom Trump.
• The key to victory will be Independents.  There are more of them than Democrats or Republicans.  There should be more never-Trumpers who are Independent than converted Republicans.
• A poll in March of this year showed that 81% thought Democracy is being threatened.
• The one key point of information is that a New York Times/Siena poll today reported that of the 8% of voters who had only recently decided, 55% went with Kamala Harris and 44% with Donald Trump.

Four years ago, I went to sleep, and so did Donald Trump, thinking that he had prevailed over Joe Biden.  It took several days for things to sort out, completely reversing the results by the weekend.

• What happened was that Republicans tended to vote on voting day, while Democrats cast mail-in ballots.  
• Same day results were announced first.  
• Over the next few days, six key states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, went to Biden.  The difference was 10,457 in Arizona, 12,670 in Georgia, 33,596 in Nevaa and 20,662 in Wisconsin.  
• Just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College.  And Biden, nationwide, beat Trump by 7 million votes,  He beat Trump by 74 electoral votes.
• In 2016, just under 80,000 votes in three of those six states made Trump the victor.
• All signs point to those same six states again making the difference, plus North Carolina.
• Arizona 11
• Georgia 16
• Michigan 15
• Nevada  6
• Pennsylvania 19
• Wisconsin 10
• North Carolina 16
• 
  There is one more voting group of possible relevance.  Overseas.
• 4.4 million people live abroad, and 2.8 million ae eligible to vote.
• Each voter must register, and follow the regulations of their state.
• Very complicated, and few actually go through the process.
• In 2020 7.8% cast ballots, and the state allowed is your last residence in the U.S.
• Theoretically, there are 1.6 million overseas voters for those 7 battleground states.  Say 10% vote this year, that would be 160,000 split among those states.  Overseas voters tend to vote for Democrats.   So if any state comes down to victory with only a very few votes difference, this group could well make the difference. These votes tend to be counted late, but they do count.

So the chances are that the new President of the USA won't be known on November 5.  It could well take into the weekend, or later if really close, for votes will be contested.  A least this time on January 6, the Vice President Mike Pence will be Vice President Kamala Harris.  The sitting president is Joe  Biden, not Donald Trump.  There is hope for Democracy.

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DAY 22: WE ARE IN MIAMI

Dinner on Day 21 was a choice of Beef Wellington in the Garden Cafe buffet, or whatever they have on the menu sit down restaurants. 

We picked Manhattan, and had our third best meal of the trip.  Something about the waiter, his aides, food, talk, and length, plus a lot of Dewars White Label and Jack Daniels, plus Chardonnay, helped.  First a plate of Tostadas.

I had a corn soup with Caesar Salad.

The fried chicken was really good.  But the corn, mashed potatoes and biscuits added.

My lowest walk day so far, only 1617 steps.

Day 22.  We arrived in Miami.

The city of Miami has a population of 6.14 million, but a core of 442,241, 70% Hispanic/Latin.

• 300 high rises, 61 exceeding 491 feet in height.
• The cruise port is the busiest in the world in both passenger traffic and cruise lines.

• 
  Second most visited city/metropolitan area after New York City.
• Named after the Myaimi River.
• Only major U.S. city founded by a woman, Julia Tuttle, a wealthy local citrus grower from Cleveland.  She owned the land on which Miami was built.

• 
  Referred to as The 305 (original area code of Miami-Dade County), Magic City (for major growth after World War II), Gateway to the Americas, Gateway to Latin America, Capital of Latin America and Vice City (1980s slang term for being a major cocaine trans-shipment point).

• 
  Vice City and The Herons are nicknames of their Inter Miami soccer team, where the president is David Beckham, team of Lionel Messi, and league champion in 2023, featuring the color PINK.  Actually, they have three uniforms: pink at home, black away and aqua.

• 
  Fidel Castro rose to power in Cuba in 1959, resulting in a lot of refugees into Miami.
• Hosted both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions in 1972.
• Their Miami Dolphins NFL team also had an undefeated season in 1972.
• Hurricane Andrew made landfall as a Category 5 in 1992 and was the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S. until Katrina in 2005.

• 
  Over 200,000 students en rolled in local colleges and universities.
• Miami has been the setting of numerous films and television shows, including Bad Boys, Miami Vice, Cocaine Cowboys, Burn Notice, Jane the Virgin, Scarface, The Birdcage, Ballers, South Beach Tow, Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, Ride Along 2, Love & Hip Hop: Miami, Kourtney & Kim Take Miami, The Golden Girls, 2 Fast 2 Furious, and Dexter.^{[165][166][167][168][169][170][171]}Several video games, including Hotline Miami, the Gameloft racing game Asphalt Overdrive, Scarface: The World Is Yours, and the fictional Vice City in several video games across the Grand Theft Auto series, most notably Grand Theft Auto: Vice City and the upcoming Grand Theft Auto VI, is based on Miami.^[172][173]

• 
  Known for rude drivers.
• Dangerous place for pedestrians.
• Safe Travel Abroad ranks 96 cities, and places Miami at 55, making it a safe city with a low to medium risk of danger.  Biggest problems are pickpocketing and purse snatching in busy and tourist places.  Has a higher mugging rate than the national averarage of U.S. cities, especially at night or in dangerous neighborhoods with street gangs.  Just don't go there.  Safe places are Coconut Grove, Coral Gables and Key Biscayne.
• 
  Fun Facts You Didn't Know About Miami.
• Miami Beach sand is imported.
• Sunscreen was invented here.  By Benjamin Green in his Coconut Grove residence in the 1940's.  Became known as Coppertone.

• 
  Has experienced snow only once, on January 19, 1977.
• Home of the first Burger King.  Photo from 1954.
• Is the hub for Art Deco Architecture.

• 
  Has one of the oldest buildings in the Western World.  The Ancient Spanish Monastery in North Miami Beach, was built in 1141.

• There are no basements because land is six to nine feet above sea level.

Re-boarding the Norwegian Encore was a minor pain.  As we are changing cabins, we had to re-pack.  There are 200 of us on this ship, and we waited around for several hours after vacating our room to go through customs and immigration again.  You would think this could have occurred on the ship. But some positives were that I finished this posting, and had a Bloody Mary.  The ship departs in a few hours to Europe.

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NORWEGIAN ENCORE CRUISE DAY 21

Cruise began in Seattle on October 13.  We arrive in Miami tomorrow.  However, while almost everyone else leaves the ship, we remain for another two weeks.

About the presidential election in three days, I'm nervous.  The thought of Donald Trump winning and the USA losing Democracy is a feeling I've never had before.  Polls show a close race.  How close?  Go to 538 and also get concerned.  You can scroll down to track what is happening in the Senate and House races...and also moan, if you're a Democrat.

Something new has been added this year, which might not be available in future years,  IT IS NOW LEGAL FOR U.S. CITIZENS TO GAMBLE ON WHO WILL WIN.  

• The odds seem to be set at 48-52, meaning no matter who you vote for, if you bet $50, you will win $48, plus get back the $50.  This could change.

• What happened?
• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates financial contracts that bet on events, had consistently blocked applications to open up betting.

• 
  But last month, a U.S. district court sided with one of those companies seeking this availability, Kalshi, clearing the way to allow betting.
• The CFTC appealed.  This U.S. government agency was created in 1974 to regulate the U.S. derivatives markets,  Current chairperson is Brooksley Born.

• 
  Like all of Donald Trump's convictions, there won't be any decision until next year, so Kalshi and other companies are now being allowed to handle election betting.
• Kalshi began getting action, and in the first three weeks hit $30 million.  This surged to $139 million yesterday.
• Kalshi has allowed any individual bettor to wage a much as $100 million on the outcome of the November 5 Trump vs Harris election.
• 
  Other companies taking bets are Interactive Brokers and Robinhood.
• You should not confuse the legal betting above with crypto-based betting platforms like Polymarket, which says they are hosting over $2 billion in bets, but from foreign traders.  This is technically banned in the U.S., although encryption internet networks can provide access for the adventuresome. The CFTC slapped the company with a $1.4 million fine in 2022 for opening up their platform to betting.
• 
  There are other unusual platforms.  PredictIT, run by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, offers contracts with a betting limit of $850.  Apparently, Americans can participate.

Half a century ago, Daylight Savings Time (DST) began on the first Sunday in April and reverted on the last Sunday in October.  Well, in 2007 all that changed.

• Four weeks were added.
• Now, DST starts on the second Sunday in March, and ends on the first Sunday in November.
• 70 countries use some form of DST, meaning most don't bother.  But keep in mind that the dates do not coincide with the U.S.   
• Most of Europe, for example, went ahead and Fell Back one hour a week ago at 1AM.
• Egypt Fell Back at midnight on the last Thursday in October, and will Spring Forward at midnight the last Friday in April.
• 
  Hawaii and Arizona do not observe DST.  We don't need to making any adjustments.
• Florida and California are close to making DST permanent, that is, all year, instead of just March to November.  The Sunshine Protection Act in Congress also might someday make this national.  The motivation is that all this disruption will thus be avoided.

• 
  The reason why this discombobulation occurred was to to conserve energy.  Has it?
• The Department of Energy found about 0.5% drop in electricity usage/day.
• Such a small amount for this inconvenience,
• However, this savings is about the amount of electricity used by more than 100,000 households for an entire year.
• But, the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that demand for heating and cooling increased, so electricity was actually about the same.

So, anyway, the good news is that tonight (technically at 2AM Sunday) you should, Fall Back, or set your clock back an hour, giving you an extra hour to sleep.  Then on March 9, 2025, you will Spring Forward, or move your clock forward an hour, returning you to DST....and lose an hour of sleep.  Studies have been done, and your body does not like this sleep lossage.  As for example, there is an uptick in heart attacks and strokes.

Here on the Norwegian Encore, something magical occurs.  Because of this sailing around, tonight we move from Central to Eastern Time, but instead of adding an hour, we gain back an hour because of DST.  Thus, we do NOTHING to our clock.

Last night, dinner.  First a Double Gin Martini,  I ordered three appetizers, and asked for them all to be brought to the table at the same time.  Never happens. Meatballs.

Asparagus soup.

Her two entrés.  Spaghetti alla Puttanesca (garlic, olives, anchovies and capers--invented in the brothels of Naples--the Italian Putta is whore in English) and lamb shank.

Finally came the Caesar Salad.

Dessert.

Saw Claire Gobin the Theater, and went to the casino for the first time.  Lost a dollar.

7489 steps on Day 20.

Lunch has become my favorite meal of the day.  Always with two alcoholic drinks.  Usually noodles with additives.

Brittles for dessert.

Ice carving.

Well, my final posting on the first phase on the Norwegian Encore.  Tomorrow in Miami we shift from the port side to starboard for another 14 days to Southampton, UK., arriving on November 24.

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