TODAY AND TOMORROW

SORRY FOR THE DELAY.  THE INTERNET IN THIS BUILDING WAS OUT MOST OF THE DAY.

This was a generally bad Monday for much of humanity, and tomorrow could well be pivotal.  Today is August 5, with the U.S. presidential election three months away on November 5.  I'll start with Mike Lukovich's latest cartoon, indicating what is happening to the Trump presidential campaign, which I guess is good news for Freedom.

The world stock market might well be crashing:

• The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1,030.5 points (-2.72%), with the Nasdaq Composite  -3.38% and S&P 500 -3%.

• 
  But the Japan Nikkei had its worst day since 1987, falling 12.4%, mainly caused by disappointing U.S economic data.
• Some blamed the Federal Reserve for not acting expeditiously last week.
• European markets were all down around 2% today.
• Is this a sign of a coming recession?
• Republicans will benefit from what is happening.  
• But it would have been worse for Democrats if this occurred in September, as in 2008, when the Lehman bankruptcy triggered the Great Recession, or in mid-October, a month known for crashes.
• That recession actually began in 2007 when George the Elder Bush was president, and the rupture of the U.S. economy was one factor in Americans voting for a Democrat in 2008, Barack Obama.
• Is there enough time for the Federal Reserve to save Democrats?  A crashing economy favors the opposition party.

Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida's Big Bend at 7AM EDT.

• Four deaths.
• All signs show Debby trundling along the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend.  
• Interestingly enough, she will weaken quite a bit while on land, but, once into the Atlantic Ocean, could strengthen to 60 MPH and higher, dropping two feet of rain in certain locations.

In the East Pacific Ocean:

• There are four tropical storms, Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia and Fabio, plus another new disturbance, all projected to head for Hawaii.  
• However, cooler waters will most likely weaken them.

Well, the above is a lead-in to what might happen tomorrow.

• War in the Middle East.
• Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on July 30 in Beirut, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran on July 31.
• Iran will most likely on Tuesday punish Israel for these killings.  What and how?
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (right) however, indicated that the country is not seeking to expand the war, in a meeting today with Russia's security council secretary Sergei Shoigu,
• 
  Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris will announce her vice presidential running mate on Tuesday.
• The pundit favorites seem to think that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (even money odds), Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (5-2) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (2-1) are the ahead, with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (3-1) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg  (5-1) still in the running.
• North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper pulled out and, I guess Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is not now being considered.  I once thought he was the most likely prospect.
• What Harris needs is the proverbial All-American boy to gain white male support.
• Shapiro is Jewish, and that might be ethnic overkill, for Harris has that base covered, plus her husband is Jewish.  Yet, she seems most comfortable with him, and he would bring in the 19 electoral votes from Pennsylvania.
• Kelly is from Arizona (11 electoral votes), and can shore up immigration, gun control and macho credits.  He was an astronaut, flew a Navy fighter plane and is the husband of Gabby Giffords, who was the politician in the family as a Congresswoman from Arizona and was almost killed in an assassination attempt.  The big IF is that his Arizona Senate seat could go to a Republican in 2026.
• Walz is 60 years old, not from a battleground state and is not a particularly effective orator.  He simply has not done much.

The Paris Summer Olympics had some nice highlights for the USA.

• Noah Lyles won the gold in the 100m dash.  
• He was lucky, for he was last (8 runners) from the start to the 40m mark.  Halfway, 7th place.  Then, somehow, his torso (hands, head and legs don't count...in fact, just before the actual finish, you can see American Fred Kerly's orange shoe first across the finish line--and he came in for the bronze medal) made it to that invisible marker that only the camera caught.  He won by 5 thousandths of a second.  A tenth of a second is close....a hundredth of a second is almost immeasurable.
• He now is heavily favored to win the classic double, with another gold in the 200m, something Usain Bolt achieved three times.  Lyles could well also do this in the 2028 Los Angeles Games.  All he needs is to remain sound, physically and mentally.
• 
  A downer, if you wanted more, but Simone Biles only got a silver on the final event, the floor exercise.  Will she return to Los Angeles?  She say's, don't ask.

• 
  Scottie Scheffler, already the #1 player in the world, shot a spectacular 9-under 62 to win the gold.  Tommy Fleetwood of the UK got silver and Hideki Matsuyama won bronze. Spain's Jon Rahm had a 4-shot lead after the 10th hole.  Then collapsed to end up 5th.  Scottie cried on the podium.
• The medal count.

• 1. USA — 75 (19 gold, 29 silver, 27 bronze)
• 2. China — 52 (21 gold, 17 silver, 14 bronze)
• 3. France — 45 (12 gold, 15 silver, 18 bronze)
• 4. Great Britain — 40 (10 gold, 13 silver, 17 bronze)
• 5. Australia — 32 (13 gold, 11 silver, 8 bronze)
• T6. South Korea — 26 (11 gold, 8 silver, 7 bronze)
• T6. Japan — 26 (10 gold, 5 silver, 11 bronze)
• 8. Italy — 25 (9 gold, 10 silver, 6 bronze)
• 9. Canada — 17 (5 gold, 4 silver, 8 bronze)
• 10. Netherlands — 15 (6 gold, 5 silver, 4 bronze)

To see the full list of medal standings, click here.

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WORLD'S GREATEST PLACES

Anyone know where Saint Lucia is located?  It is an island country of the West Indies in the eastern Caribbean with a population of 180,000, and a member of the United Nations.  Julien Alford is 23 and yesterday won a gold medal for the 100 meter event, the first for Saint Lucia.  She is 5'7" tall.  U.S. women's speedster Sha'Carri Richardson is 5'1".  Alford could well become the next female version of Usain Bolt.

You should remember him.  He is an 8-time Olympic gold medalist and the world record holder in the 100 m, 200 m and 4x100 m relay.  From Jamaica, won both the 100 m and 200 m Olympic races in 2008, 2012 and 2016.  An eleven-time World Champion.  While he is 6'5" tall, and Alford is only 5'7", she seems a lot bigger than most of the finalists in the Paris sprint races.  

Watch Taylor Swift narrate a new promo for NBC--featuring her Style--paying tribute to Team USA's finest:  Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky and Sha'Carri Richardson.  Maybe it should have been Noah Lyles...except he too looks vulnerable.  The gold for the men's 100m will be contested also by Kishane Thompson and Oblique Seville of Jamaica, Ferdinand Omanyala of Kenya and Marcell Jacobs of Italy. 

Well I know who won that 100 meter dash, but will honor my pledge and wait until tomorrow to divulge details.   The medal count so far:

• Most medals:  USA 71, China 45, France 44 and Australia 31.
• Gold medals:  USA 19, China 19, France 12 and Australia 12.

Time magazine chose 100 of the world's greatest places for 2024, and here is how they did it.

• Solicited nominations.
• They particularly wanted new and exciting experiences.
• The result was 100 extraordinary destinations to visit this year.

You can read the details of each place, but to save you the effort, here are a few that appealed to me.

Belmond's Eastern and Oriental Express.  Actually, I've taken this railway trip, and it was fine, except that the train is on a narrow track--called single gauge--and there is a lot sideways wobble.  Dangerous for old and frail people.  Read my posting of more than 13 years ago describing my experience.  But this is what Time said.

• This train was inactive during the pandemic and just re-began operations.  
• My trip took me from Bangkok to Singapore.  This report only includes a three-night Malaysia tour for 64 passengers starting from Singapore.

• 
  There are 15 luxurious carriages with an open-air observation car.
• Includes stops for snorkeling, a cruise to Langkawi and tour to Taman Negara National Park, one of the world's oldest rainforests.
• A Michelin chef, Andre Chiang, was featured.
• Good food and a piano bar at night.
• The train's signature cocktail is the Royal Nightcap.
• The $3400/person three night journey includes meals beverages and activities.  About $1000/day when you work in the fact that there are three plus days.

The Royal Caribbean Icon of the Seas.

• Cruising returned to normal last year, with 31.7 million passengers, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 year by 7%.
• The biggest ship now cruising is Icon of the Seas.
• There are 20 decks, festooned with twisting slides.
• Cost to build, more than $2 billion.
• 159 feet wide and 1197 feet long.
• Speed up to 22 knots.
• Can use liquified natural gas.
• There are more than 40 restaurants and bars, with 27 places to eat, 13 being free.

• 
  Maximum capacity of 7600 passengers, with 2,350 crew.
• There was a fire on board, where electricity was lost for a while on June 25.
• The next and final ship of this class, Star of the Seas (right), will not be larger than Icon.  Future Royal Caribbean cruisers will be smaller.

I will stop here.  You can access the other places.

15 Craigside, where I live, had a golf tournament at the Mililani Golf Course.  Some photos:

The chef prepared a bag for lunch, which held a spam musubi, banana and cookies from Irene Nakamato, our resident president.

Ended the day at a Wine Down and bestowed awards.

Followed that up with a luau.

Debby just became a hurricane, and will make landfall over the Florida Panhandle on Monday.

If you have a flight or cruise in this general area, read this.  Royal Caribbean's Symphony of the Seas will skip a planned stop at Port Canaveral on Sunday, and spend a day at sea.

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BLOOD TEST FOR IDENTIFYING ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE

How much do Paris Summer Olympics medalists get paid?

Olympic medal bonuses

Table with 4 columns and 14 rows.

Hong Kong	$768,000	$384,000	$192,000
Singapore	$745,000	$373,000	$186,000
Indonesia	$300,000	$150,000	$60,000
Israel	$271,000	$216,000	$135,000
Republic of Kazakhstan	$250,000	$150,000	$75,000
Malaysia	$216,000	$65,000	$22,000
Spain	$102,000	$52,000	$33,000
France	$87,000	$43,000	$22,000
South Korea	$45,000	$25,000	$18,000
United States	$38,000	$23,000	$15,000
Japan	$32,000	$13,000	$6,000
Poland	$25,000	$19,000	$14,000
Germany	$22,000	$16,000	$11,000
Australia	$13,000	$10,000	$7,000

The bronze medal column will be cut-off in the original blog posting.  But you can see it here.

Hong Kong athletes in Paris have  so far won two golds and two bronze medals.  The last Singaporean athlete to win money was Joseph Schooling (left), who beat Michael Phelps in the 100-meter butterfly at the Rio Games in 2016, winning a gold medal and $745,300.  

Here are the 23 Singapore Olympians in Paris.  Watch for them.  In track & field, Shanti Pereira (right) in the women's 100m, 200m and 400m.  Marc Brian Louis will compete in the men's 100m.  Root for 20-year old Shannon Tan in women's golf.

Olympics Medal Leaders

Gold

Silver

Bronze

Total

• United States
• France
• China

• 14
• 12
• 16

• 24
• 14
• 12

• 23
• 15
• 9

• 61
• 41
• 37

FULL MEDAL COUNT

Incidentally at the Tokyo Summer Olympics in 2021, the USA won 39 gold medals to 38 for China, and 113 total medals to China's 89.  We are about halfway through the Games, which end on Sunday, August 11.

Thursday was supposed to be my day for COVID-19, other medical issues and nutrition, so this posting is one day delayed.  According to the CDC, 20 states have detected VERY High levels of COVID-19 in their wastewater.  This is three more states than last week, and and 13 more than the middle of July.  Only one state, New York, had low levels of COVID-19.  Below, red is high.

Here is another CDC report which  below shows positivity (dark orange is high).  National positivity is 14%.  In short, best to avoid states in and around Texas if you fear covid, for they are the highest for both wastewater measurements and positivity.

Moving along to another medical matter, at 15 Craigside where I live, dementia is somewhat common.  What do you know about dementia?

• There are over 100 forms of dementia.

• 
  More than 55 million people with dementia in the world.
• This is less than one-tenth of one percent the world population.  So what is the bid deal?  
• In 1960, only those 65 and older represented 5% of the world.
• Today, this figure has doubled to 10%.
• Dementia mostly affects the very old, and the older the higher the incidence.
• 
  In a dinner table discussion I surmised that perhaps 10% of residents in our senior community building had some form of dementia.  However, the overwhelming consensus of others was that this figure might be closer to 50%.
• The average age here is around the mid-80's, so 25% would be about statistically normal.
• This is a joke, I think, but there is a barber shop here.  I remember once asking the barber, what percent of residents do you think has dementia?  She said 75%.  People tended to forget they had appointments.
• Dementia globally costs $1.3 trillion/year, but expected to rise to $9.1 trillion by 2050.
• Females have 70% of all dementia cases.
• What causes dementia?

• age (more common in those 65 or older) 
• high blood pressure (hypertension)
• high blood sugar (diabetes)
• being overweight or obese
• smoking
• drinking too much alcohol
• being physically inactive
• being socially isolated
• depression.

• 
  Dementia is a condition which over time destroys nerve cells in the brain.  Many have plaques, a protein called beta-amyloid, and tangles of tau protein.  The presence of certain genes, like apolipoprotein, are more prevalent.  This defect is genetic, and your odds of getting dementia are linked to others in your family.

• Early signs and symptoms are:

  • forgetting things or recent events
  • losing or misplacing things
  • getting lost when walking or driving
  • being confused, even in familiar places
  • losing track of time
  • difficulties solving problems or making decisions 
  • problems following conversations or trouble finding words 
  • difficulties performing familiar tasks
  • misjudging distances to objects visually.

  Common changes in mood and behaviour include:

  • feeling anxious, sad, or angry about memory loss 
  • personality changes
  • inappropriate behaviour
  • withdrawal from work or social activities
  • being less interested in other people’s emotions.
• There is no cure, but medication will more and more become available to retard the progress of dementia.
• Cholinesterase inhibitors like Donepezil.
• NMDA receptor antagonists like memantine.
• Control of blood pressure and cholesterol.
• Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors help reduce depression.
• Haloperidol and risperidone.
• The older you are, the more prevalent.
• 77-79  5%
• 80-89  24.2%
• 90 and older  37.4%
• More specifically, Alzheimer's disease is 60-70% of all dementia.

About Alzheimer's disease.

• 
  German psychiatrist Alois Alzheimer in 1901 identified the first case,  50-year old female Auguste Deter (right).  She died five years later.
• A person with Alzheimer's usually lives 4-8 years after diagnosis, but can hang on for 20 years.  Major problem for families, and a looming burden for medical plans.
• While there is no cure, there are three treatments.  They remove beta-amyloid from the brain.
• Aduanumab (Aduhelm)
• Donanemab (Kisunla)
• Lecanemab (Leqembi)
• Alzheimer's helpline:  800 272 3900.

Not sure if this is good or bad news, but a new blood test was recently disclosed to test for Alzheimer's.

• The test indicates the presence of sticky amyloid plaques and tangled fibers called tau (abnormal protein ptau217) in the brain.  The accuracy is 90%.  A dementia specialist gets 75%.

• 
  Previously, this would have required an uncomfortable spinal tap or a costly PET scan.
• There has previously been a variety of blood tests, but the accuracy of them has been questioned.
• This new test cost several hundred dollars and is already commercially available, although not yet approved by the Food and Drug Administration.  Thus, medical insurers don't yet cover the cost.

Getting a positive diagnosis is just the second step.  Then what?

• Most medical plans supposedly cover dementia care.
• But there are huge questions on daily benefit, length, maximum lifetime payout, etc.  Tax implications?
• The toll on families is huge.

Tropical Storm Debbie formed southeast of Florida, and will make landfall over the Panhandle as a possible hurricane, with eye currently projected to pass Tallahassee to the east.

There are three ocean storms in the East Pacific, with two of them headed for Hawaii.  Hurricane Carlotta was at 90 MPH earlier today, but has weakened to 85 MPH, and should further weaken in her trek west.  Tropical Storm Daniel began by going west, but almost reversed himself northeast towards Baha, then more recently again seeming to turn west.  Behind Carlotta is a third pre-tropical storm that seems to be moving in the Hawaii direction.

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