THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY

Last week Sunday featured The Prequel, the background  for my posting today.  Origin--a gift from a 15 Craigside friend--Dan Brown's seventh book, the fifth featuring Harvard professor Robert Langdon played on the screen by Tom Hanks.  With sales of more than 200 million, most of these books occupy a time period of 24 hours.  Three of them became films, with The Da Vinci Code being the first.  All did poorly with Rotten Tomatoes reviewers, and audiences were so-so.  Is this why there is not much talk about Origin again drawing the interest of Ron Howard (director) and Hanks?  I suspect these two will eventually come around, for all three films they did made money (total box revenues exceeding a third of a billion dollars).

While engrossing, it took me a few months to complete the reading.  I suspect I was given this publication because it pretty much reflects my view about religion.

Dan Brown is a product of Phillips Exeter Academy and Amherst, with his writing representing upbringing (codes) and travels (Spain).   My attitude about religion was formed similar to his experience:

I was raised Episcopalian, and I was very religious as a kid. Then, in eighth or ninth grade, I studied astronomy, cosmology, and the origins of the universe. I remember saying to a minister, 'I don't get it. I read a book that said there was an explosion known as the Big Bang, but here it says God created heaven and Earth and the animals in seven days. Which is right?' Unfortunately, the response I got was, 'Nice boys don't ask that question.' A light went off, and I said, 'The Bible doesn't make sense. Science makes much more sense to me.' And I just gravitated away from religion.^[6]

I don't write traditional book reviews.  If you are interested in the details, read this study guide:

• The book answers these questions (STOP READING IF YOU DON'T WANT TO KNOW THE ANSWERS):
• Where do we come from?
• I essentially gave you the answer last Sunday with Why is there Anything?
• Where are we going?

• By 2050, artificial intelligence will neutralize humanity.
• However, over time, future humans will be hybridized with technology.
• Hopefully, religion will appreciate this inevitability and become part of this developing partnership.
• My final chapter in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity evolves into something close to the above.

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Tropical Storm Hagibis formed close to Guam and could well strengthen into a typhoon, with a path towards Okinawa, then up to Japan.  If you're on a cruise ship in this region, or soon plan to, you should be very worried about sea conditions about a week from now, for Stars and Stripes reports:

From there, JTWC projects Hagibis to track west-northwest in Japan's general direction, getting within 367 miles east-southeast of Kadena (Air Force Base on Okinawa) at mid-afternoon Friday as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. That's at end of JTWC's current forecast period.

Beyond that, model track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble depict a sharp turn northeast toward the Tokyo area with some outliers: Kyushu and Taiwan.

However, my Diamond Princess will depart from Yokohama for Okinawa on November 22.

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A CHRISTMAS GIFT FOR AN ANORAK

I have recently been reporting on Japanese whiskies, and how expensive they are:

• What in the World has Happened to the Price of Japanese Whisky?
• Ichiro Strikes Again

I noticed that Dekanta (a company that sells these drinks at rather high prices) is publicizing their Japanese Whisky Advent Calendar 2019 Edition:

Our amazing Japanese Whisky Advent Calendar was so popular that we made it even better this year! Of course, it’s jam-packed with excellent single malts, grains and blends from some of Japan’s top producers. Explore 24 different drams from all across Japan. A range of superb single grain to single malt whiskies hailing from the most famous distilleries. Now is your chance to taste some of the finest whisky on the planet.

Here are the different whiskies you get:

• Nikka Taketsuru Pure Malt ($194)
• Kamiki Sakura ($199)
• Yamazaki 18 Year Old ($100)
• Kunpu 2017 ($210)

• Suntory Royal Aged 12 year Old ($250)
• Nikka Black Deep Blend Extra Sweet ($150)
• Suntory Hakushu Distillery Single Malt Whisky (that's my bottle to the right)

• Mars HHAE Blended Whisky By Minaminokaze 
• Nikka Coffey Malt Whisky 
• Kirin Fujisanroku Signature Blend Non-Chill Filtered 
• Komagatake Single Malt Japanese Whisky Shinanotanpopo 
• Hibiki Blender’s Choice 
• The Yamazaki Single Malt Whisky – Distiller’s Reserve 
• Single Malt Miyagikyo 

• Nikka Yoichi Single Malt (only $130, but here is a photo of my 20-year old version, which costs $5500 at Dekanta, and was the Japanese whiskey that in 2001 broke the ice to be selected as Best of the Best whisky in Scotland) 

• Akashi White Oak Aged 5 Bourbon Barrel (1st Fill) 
• Nikka Coffey Grain Whisky 
• Yamazakura 16 Year Old 
• Shinshu Mars Karuizawa Club 
• Ichiro’s Malt And Grain Chichibu Blended Whisky ($130)

• Kamiki Intense 
• Nikka Days 
• Yamazakura Blended Whisky 
• Suntory Ao:  This is the newest Suntory, which Dekanta has on sale for $200.  As Japanese distilleries are so small, the cost of their whiskies have skyrocketed.  So Suntory is using whisky from distilleries around the world they have purchased to blend with a small amount from Japan.

You ask, how much is a dram?  

• one dram is one-eighth of an ounce
• there are 25.4 ounces (oz) in a standard whisky bottle
• thus, there are 406.4 drams in a bottle
• if a bottle of whisky costs $100, one dram is worth 25 cents 
• if a bottle of whisky costs $1000, one dram is worth $2.50
• one shot is 1.5 oz
• one shot is 610 grams
• 24 drams amount to 3 ounces
• that smallest bottle to the right next to the dime is a dram bottle, while the 68 mm bottle is half an ounce:

As these 24 miniature one dram bottles cost $300, your break-even cost is for the average price of these liquors to be $2540 / 25.4 oz bottle.  I checked into the first few and they average slightly more than $150/bottle.  The rest of the list does not include any really expensive whisky, as for example, the Ichiro Malt and Grain Chichibu Blended Whiskey costs $130.  However, the Ichiro Malt and Grain Japanese Blended Whisky Limited Edition 2019 sells for $7500, but that's not the one you're getting.

Oh, if you were wondering what is an ANORAK, it is British slang for a person who is obsessive about a niche subject.  Deep in the field of whisky imbibition is this term, referring to a whisky-phile.

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DO YOU REALLY KNOW VOLODYMY ZELENSKY?

Volodymyr Zelensky is a 41-year old Ukrainian who has been president of his country since May of this year.  He is a Jewish stand-up comic who also has a law degree.  His father is a professor of cybernetics and mother an engineer.  He never practiced law, but instead became prominent in the entertainment industry.  From 2015 to 2019 he served as President of Ukraine in Servant of the People, a television series.

In the show, as a 30-something high school history teacher, he accidentally wins election to the presidency of Ukraine, when one of his students filmed him angrily ranting against government corruption.  The clip went viral.  The whole effort can be seen on You Tube for free.  Here is a program with English subtitles.  

So both our countries have heads who came from television.  Donald Trump has had three wives, who bore five children, producing ten grandchildren.  Zelensky has a wife, a daughter and son.  From no political experience, he won the presidential election with 73% of the vote over the incumbent Petro Poroshenko.  Unlike Trump, Zelensky considers Vladimir Putin to be an enemy of the country.  This now leader of Ukraine supports the FREE distribution of medical cannabis, FREE abortion and legalization of prostitution and gambling.

All in all, who would you rather have as president of your country, a scheming crook being impeached or a rather innocent comedian who is at war with Russia and entrapped in American politics?

Can't leave this subject without mentioning that, perhaps, Volo's next movie will be with Tom Cruise:

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MY FOUR BIRTHDAY PARTIES

Throughout my life, I've rarely had birthday parties.  I remember once, though, when I had one in Tokyo for lunch, then caught a flight back to Honolulu, where, as you might know, you arrive the morning of the day you left.  I had a real birthday party at home.  Thus, two.

Next year should be especially monumental, for I'll turn 80, meaning I'll have lived into the Year 2020.  This has been a lifelong goal for me.

But back to this year, here are photos of birthday parties #1 and #2:

BP#2 featured a luau.  BP#3 ended with trying to open a Napoleon cognac dragon bottle.  We couldn't, and the glassware was too delicate to apply any kind of force.

However, the individual who gave me this cognac returned for a wagyu/sashimi dinner, which led to prying loose the cap with a quarter:

BP#4 began with an Ichiro Japanese Whiskey on rocks, and featured Miyazaki wagyu beef, three kinds of sashimi (chu-toro, toro and hirame), sliced onions and shiitake mushrooms fried in butter and sake, and salad of sea asparagus, cucumber, watercress, avocado and turnips.  The wine was a Stanford Lohr Pinot Noir.  Notice that quarter at the bottom of the second photo?  That was the key to the cognac, which was absolutely wonderful.  This drink has a special link to our past.  Best meal I've ever had at 15 Craigside.  I'm looking forward to top this next year.

She this morning sent me this obasans dancing to Bruno Mars' 24K Magic.  Worth a look.  What is an obasan?  Well, take a look.

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MY HISTORY OF MATHEMATICS

This is Wednesday, so, at the request of someone, I will try to explain Bayes' Theorem and Peirce Abduction.  I'll get there, but let me begin with a question:  Who invented mathematics?  

• As primates began to appear almost 100 million years ago, some form of math capability began then because:
• a whole host of animals can count, with some monkeys more capable than college students

• alas, Clever Hans, a horse, did not have any math skill, but answered questions based on observing facial and body cues
• Thus, the earliest humans already had this talent for basic math 300,000 years ago, but only barely.

Geometry

Trigonometry

Differential geometry

• It was around 3000 BC that arithmetic, algebra and geometry were developed in Mesopotamia.
• Egyptian math texts as far back as 2000 BC have been found.
• Greek mathematician Pythagoras (right), born around 570 BC, is known for a theorem by his name:  for a right-angled triangle, the square of the length of the hypotenuse (longest side), is equal to the sum of the square of the other two sides.
• Along came another Greek mathematician, Euclid, born in 325 BC, who is known as the father of geometry, even though the concept was invented almost three millennia earlier.

• Islamic and Indian scholars further developed mathematics so that by 1500 AD, Nicolaus Copernicus of Prussia and Galileo Galilei of Italy applied them to study the Universe.
• In the 1600's, French philosopher Rene Descartes (right) became the father of analytical geometry, and is noted for:  I think, therefore I am.
• Pierre Fermat from France helped develop calculus, which was used in the 1700's by Isaac Newton of Great Britain for his works on optics and gravitation.  Blame him for differential calculus.

• In the mid-1700's Reverend Thomas Bayes (right) became famous for his theorem in probability, the equivalent of Pythagoras in geometry.
• In the later 1800's, American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce introduced abduction into logic.  Abduction and deduction can be combined to provide the hypothesis.  All related to induction and the scientific movement linked to Galileo of Italy and Bacon of England.

Here I was planning to introduce you to Bayes' Theorem and Peirce Abduction.  Let me start with one graphic.  I came to a conclusion that anything more I try will only confuse you.

I was a terrific math student into geometry and trigonometry in high school.  Then in college, mathematics lost me, for I could not picture something physical in my mind.  So much so that I felt compelled to audit Non-Linear Differential Equations to prepare me for graduate school.  It was taught by Christopher Gregory, the first chairman of the Math Department at the University of Hawaii.  This is the only course I ever took there.  

Professor Gregory might have been the smartest teacher I ever had.  But, then again, there is something dominant about being at the podium of a university class.  As a professor, you have a mystique  that transcends actual intelligence.  For one, we know more about a subject than any smart student.  I have talked to colleagues about this factor, and we all agree that we haven't yet taught a genius in our courses.

Interestingly enough, the math department in Hawaii was only founded in 1954 as part of the School of Engineering, whose dean was Wilfred Jasper Holmes, famous for helping crack the Imperial Japanese ciphers during World War II.   His wife was early on an instructor in the math program.  I spent most of my professional life in Holmes Hall, and chaired the first open house when this building became available in 1973, an annual tradition that carries on till today.  As part of my educational administrative career, I worked in the Manoa Chancellor's office during the late 1970's with Ruth Wong, who from 1962 to 1993 served as associate chair of mathematics.

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Tropical Storm Mitag battered South Korea and is headed for northern Honshu.

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THE DOOMING OF THE DONALD

One of my postings last week reported on the whistleblower catalyzing the imminent doom of President Trump.  Amazingly enough, almost a week later, even Trump, apparently, is trying to identify exactly who he/she is, while from the other side of his mouth, spewing invectives about he/she being a deep spy who must be a Democrat.  While there still is no official name, a CIA officer detailed to the White House keeps coming up as that person.

It's remarkable how so wrong Trump's tweets have been:

• Trump first indicated that there is no actual whistleblower.  Then the next day, HIS Office of the Intelligence Community Inspector General, confirmed that the complainant met the legal qualifications to be treated as a whistleblower.  That's Michael Atkinson, the person in-charge.

• Then, the whistleblower only has second hand information.  Yesterday, turns out he/she has both second-hand (meaning there are others involved) and direct info.
• Followed by Trump saying that almost everything the whistleblower said about the Ukraine call is wrong and inaccurate.  Yet, a summary of the call showed everything was right and accurate.

• On Sunday, Trump tweeted he deserves to meet his accuser.  There is an actual $50,000 bounty on the whistleblower identity.  But maybe you shouldn't take this offer too seriously, as it was made by lobbyist Jack Burkman and convervative operative Jacob Wohl, serial hoaxers who also publicized $100,000 for information about the true story of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide.

The danger for The Donald, however, is not the impeachment itself.  How many more revelations will surface when those classified transcripts are made available to the Congress?  Now we have Australia.  There no doubt will be more whistleblowers.  Will Trump then take the Nixon-path of resignation when he chooses to defy the House of subpoenaed documents.

There is something deliciously ironic about 79-year old Speaker Nancy Pelosi squeezing the .... of this poster old man for misogyny.  Here are 61 things 73-year old Donald Trump has said about women (go to the article for the rest):

• On Arianna Huffington  "Unattractive both inside and out. I fully understand why her former husband left her for a man — he made a good decision." [Aug. 28, 2012]

• 
  On Megyn Kelly  "She gets out and she starts asking me all sorts of ridiculous questions. You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever." [Aug. 7, 2015]

• 
  On Rosie O'Donnell   “If I were running The View, I'd fire Rosie O'Donnell. I mean, I'd look at her right in that fat, ugly face of hers, I'd say, 'Rosie, you're fired.'" [2006]
• On the #MeToo movement   "You've got to deny, deny, deny and push back on these women. If you admit to anything and any culpability, then you're dead. … You've got to be strong. You've got to be aggressive. You've got to push back hard. You've got to deny anything that's said about you. Never admit." [Via Bob Woodward's Fear: Trump in the White House]

• 
  On Stormy Daniels   "Horseface" [Oct. 16, 2018]

Incidentally,  Trump paid-off 40-year  old Stormy $130,000.  Cheapskate!  Heard of 49-year old Saad Hariri?  He is now the prime minister of Lebanon.  However, like The Donald, before elected, Hariri had an affair with a 20-year old bikini model Candice van der Merwe.  He gave her more than $16 million.

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Typhoon Mitag caused damage to Taiwan, Okinawa and China, but has just about now weakened into a tropical storm, and is approaching South Korea:

Mitag is the 18th named storm of the year in the Western Pacific Ocean, which historically has twice the number of ocean storms than the Atlantic Ocean.  The bad news for me is that there is no end-of-the year for these storms in the Orient.  They can come at any time.

The Atlantic, however, does now have a record-breaking hurricane named Lorenzo, who this weekend attained 160 MPH, and no other storm has become so powerful so far north and east.  Not only are the Azores threatened, but, with some weakening, Lorenzo is projected to then head for the UK as a tropical storm.

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