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Saturday, July 11, 2009

THE WORLD IS FLAT, 3.0



THE WORLD IS FLAT (A Brief History of the 21st Century), version 3.0, was published in 2007, two years after 1.0, and is written by Thomas Friedman, a New York Times reporter.  Read today, it remains topical and informative, even though the world wide web has truly taken off since even a couple of years ago.      

 

The title is a metaphor for the world as a level playing field, for computers and the internet now give all competitors throughout the blog an equal opportunity to compute in commerce.  The title was inspired by by Nandan Nilekani, the former co-founder and CEO of Infosys, an outsourcing firm in India with 22,000 employees.  Former, because Nilekani just left to head the National ID program to give those at the bottom a better chance at life.

 

Friedman describes the ten world flattteners:

 

#1: Collapse of Berlin Wall on 11/9/89/

 

#2: Netscape (8/9/95) opening up the world wide web.

 

#3: The ability of machines to talk to other machines with no humans involved.

 

#4: Uploading, or open source software, blogs, and Wikipedia.

 

#5: Outsourcing for work to be performed in the most efficient and cost-effective way.

 

#6: Offshoring to another country to take advantage of less costly operations.  (In particular, Friedman harps on unions fighting #5 and #6 as a big part of the problem.)

 

#7: Supply-chaining, with Wal-Mart as a good example of a company using technology to streamline item sales, distribution, and shipping at an international scale.

 

#8: Insourcing, where a company does services for another.

 

#9: Search engines such as Google.

 

#10: Personal digital devices like cell phones, instant messaging, and iPods.

 

Friedman identifies the middle class as the key to the future success of any nation.  This group (which can be as wide as you want it to be), needs to be well-educated, mobile, adaptable and innovative.

 

Nobel Prize economist Joseph Stiglitz  has written that the world is much less flatter today and Richard Florida indicated that the world is spiky, but Friedman himself said, really, the world is not flat, yet.  There are 3 billion people out there, certainly in Africa and much of India, who are on the outside with a wall of poverty standing in their way.


In the final chapter, Friedman offers the Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention.  Two countries that are connected to each other won’t wage war.  This is a nice corollary to Rudy Rummel’s contention that no two democracies have waged a major war over the past 200 years, as reported in Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

 

The World is Flat, 3.0, is more than 600 pages long, so it will take a dedicated effort to complete.  This is why it took me two years.  I highly recommend it.

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Hurricane Carlos, now at 85 MPH, will strengthen over the next few days.  It is heading for Hawaii.

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Ninety three countries have now visited this site:  2777-93-96

Friday, July 10, 2009

ON THE MATTER OF HURRICANES

A potentially serious hurricane, Carlos, is now headed for Hawaii.  While still 2700 or so miles away, I thought this was a good time to review the subject to follow up on the Honolulu Advertiser's timely reportage today.  Let me first cite a segment from Chapter 5 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth:

Both William Gray and Max Mayfield, icons in hurricane prediction and observation, have said that there is no link between global warming and hurricanes.  However, Environmental Science and Technology reports on two studies in Science and Nature which have found hurricanes growing fiercer. Peter Webster and Judith Curry believe that there is an unambiguous connection between warmer ocean surface temperatures and increase in hurricane intensity. Curry, chair of Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, was asked why Gray and Mayfield feel the way they do, and her response was, “these are hurricane scientists who don’t know a lot about global climate warming.” Kerry Emmanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has reported that over the past 30 years hurricanes have become more powerful, where both wind speed and duration have increased by 50%. The blame was squarely placed on global warming. These storms trigger twisters and floods, so the effect multiplies.

 

Hawaii is in the path of hurricanes. I have not experienced one yet in my life, but during the writing of this section, Daniel was approaching our state as a Category 5 hurricane. Thankfully, it dissipated, but further west, Typhoon Saomai slammed into China in August of 2006 as the strongest storm in 50 years. It was only a Category 4 typhoon (hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are the same, and the name depends on where they impact, with the southern hemisphere ones circulating clockwise and northern, counter-clockwise, caused by the rotation of the plane—sort of like how your bathtub water drains), but 1.6 million were evacuated, 50,000 homes were wrecked, and nearly 500 were killed. What was particularly ominous about the 2006 season was that two hurricanes FORMED just south of Hawaii, but thankfully, drifted West, and one of them, Ioke, became a Category 5 hurricane, and the strongest to ever be recorded in the Central Pacific. Maybe time to move to Kansas or the Equator, because—something called the Coriolis force being too weak to induce air to rotate around low pressure cells—hurricanes don’t start nor go there. Delete Kansas. They have twisters there that should also gain in ferocity.

 

Then, in June of 2007, Cyclone Gonu hit Oman and Iran. This was the strongest storm since record-keeping began in 1945. Even though oil fields were spared, the price of petroleum jumped past $71/barrel. Any excuse works for oil, but, the point is that something is happening to our weather.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the official watchdog for hurricanes in the U.S.  They further discuss the El Nino effect.


Returning to Tropical Storm Carlos, it just popped out and is now already at 50 MPH, heading West to Hawaii.  The dangerous factor is that, as can be seen below, the track is over relatively warm waters.  Plus, remember that Hurricane Iniki in 1992 devastated Kauai during an El Nino period.  Carlos is expected to attain hurricane strength.

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The Dow Jones Industrial dropped 37 to 8147, with world markets also almost all down.  Crude oil fell below $60/barrel and gold slipped a buck to $913/toz.  GM was reborn today.  

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Thursday, July 9, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 19)



As reported yesterday, the Group of 8 summit is happening in Italy, amidst continued protests. Barack Obama was given an applause at the first photo shoot for showing up late. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper almost missed the photo shoot of the G8 + G5 leaders + Egypt. (Photo above.) Harper was absent in the G20 group shot in April. A video of this "event" can be seen at:



http://www.nowpublic.com/world/g8-italy-group-photo-laquila


While polite cooperation was expressed by the G8, it is clear that there is a significant gap in attitude between the rich and poor nations.


The following continues Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.



A Primate Virus: HIV/AIDS

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is caused by a human immunodeficiency virus 288 which weakens the body for tumors and infections. There is no cure and the retrovirus (not worth explaining) is transmitted by direct contact of mucous or blood from the infected carrier. Up to 50 million are now affected, but as less than 1% of the population of Africa, where the ailment initiated, has been tested, who really knows the extent of the severity. More than 25 million have expired through this illness since first recognized in 1981, and of the 3 million annually killed, half a million are children.

As the avian flu came from birds, AIDS probably originated with primates, although there are various other theories. As early as 1959 a case was recorded in the Belgian Congo. Thus, Zaire and Rwanda might well have been the primary source. However, no monkey or chimpanzee has ever been found with this virus.

Economists estimate that an investment of $27 billion could avert 30 million new infections by 2010. The U.S. Congress is considering a $5.4 billion HIV/AIDS budget for fiscal 2008, which would bring the U.S. contribution to $18.3 billion. There is no simple solution for HIV/AIDS.

However, recent reports have indicated that the problem is being exaggerated to gain more funding. Over the past decade, global spending to treat and cure this disease has increased 30 fold and is now up to $10 billion/year. The United Nations in 2007 lowered its estimate of AIDS cases from 40 million to 33 million, still a high total. The UN also reports that India has the most number of AIDS infections, and 25 million have thus far died from this ailment. But the larger question is, if Peak Oil and Global Warming will be devastating the global economy in a few years, which problem deserves the higher priority? Remember, the annual U.S. Department of Energy budget for renewable energy has averaged less than $1 billion over the past decade.


(A rather surprising statistic reported yesterday is that MRSA kills more in the U.S. than AIDS.)
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The Dow Jones Industrials eaked up 5 to 8183, while world markets were mostly up. Crude remained at the $60/barrel level and gold increased $4/toz to $912.
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Blanca in the East Pacific is now a remnant low, but still at 30 MPH. In the West Pacific, there are some signs of storm formation between the Philippines and Taiwan.

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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

G8 CONVENES


President Barack Obama arrived and was met by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who changed the location of the G8 summit from the luxury Mediterranean seaside resort of La Maddalena off the Sardinian coast to the earthquake flattened city of L’Aquila, where 300 people were killed on April 6.  This was a 6.3 earthquake, about a thousand times “weaker” than the Indonesian tragedy which set off a world-wide tsunami.  In this Italian city, most of the 68,000 inhabitants are still homeless.  Berlusconi hopes to gain additional reconstruction aid through this shift.

 

It first started as a G5, when the first session was convened by Presidente Valery Giscard d’Estaing of France, attended by Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

  The following year, Italy and Canada made it the G7, with Russian added in 1997.  The President of the European Commission has been formally invited since 1981, making this a heavily European gathering.

 

Already, 36 people have been arrested in Rome, and 15,000 police officers have been deployed to L’Aquila.   Berlusconi is expected to provide the jacket pictured to the right to the participants.  The three day

meeting started today and will continue for three days.  Tomorrow it will be the G8+5, with Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa.  According to Berlusconi, they will focus on the world economy, energy issues, sustainable development and climate change.

 

President Hu Jintao, of course, earlier left to look into the riots in Xinjiang.  The problem is that this far western region, about three times the size of Texas, has 9 million Muslim Uighurs, and Han Chinese have more recently moved in, partly to develop oil.  The new Chinese feel that the Sunni Islam religion does not tolerate cooperation.  It is reported that from 150 to 1000 people have been killed, mostly in the capital city of Uramqi.


Next year, the 36th G8 summit will be held at the Deerhurst Resort in Hungsville, Ontario, Canada.  France will host in 2011 and is expected to recommend China to make them the Group of Nine.  President Barack Obama is scheduled to be the host for the 38th summit in 2012.

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The Dow Jones Industrials edged up 15 to 8178, recovering 70 during the final hour and a half.  World Markets were mostly down.  Crude oil dropped again and gold fell $14/toz to $908.

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At 30 MPH, Blanca is now a Tropical Depression, moving west-northwest, and should continue to weaken.

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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 18)

The following is from Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. At the time of writing, the bird flu occupied the same dread as the swine flu today. My views on the swine flu are very similar to that of the avian bird flu.
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Are We Overreacting to the Avian Bird Flu?

Bird, or Avian, flu, particularly strain H5N1, was first seen in Hong Kong in 1997. The 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 40 million people, was an avian flu virus. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 150 million birds have been affected, but chances are the number is even higher. Humans can thus far be infected only by direct contact with the sick fowl.

Let us get the human and cost factors making some sense:


o On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the Senior UN System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned that this deadly virus could kill 150 million people.

o On November 3, 2005, the Asian Development Bank warned that the economic damage from a pandemic affecting 20% of the region’s populace could be $282 billion.

o On November 7, 2005, World Bank economists reported that a worldwide epidemic would cost $800 billion, with 100,000 to 200,000 dying in the United States alone.

o CNN reported on February 19, 2006 of a study reported by the Lowy Institute of Australia that as many as 142 million people around the world could die in a worst case scenario, causing global economic losses of $4.4 trillion.

o On March 27, 2006 Reuters reported that bird flu could cost insurers $53 billion. Fitch Ratings indicated that 400,000 deaths could occur in Europe and 209,000 in the U.S. 253

Well, at least there is some consistency that, perhaps, 200,000 might die in the U.S. But the financial loss ranged from $282 billion to $4.4 trillion.

However, during the past decade, only 321 cases have been confirmed, with around 200 deaths, although none in Europe nor the U.S. You cannot catch this flu by eating the flesh of a tainted bird nor from another individual who has this ailment. (The very latest data show that, since 2003, 436 have contracted this ailment and 262 have died, a mortality of 60%. After three months, 429 have died from the swine flu, so clearly the latter is of higher concern. However, by comparison, during this three month period, more than 100,000 probably died from the regular flu.)

A first generation vaccine has been developed. That is the good news. Hate to say this, but the volume of the very large injection is more than ten times the dose of a regular flu shot, and only half of you will be protected. Your home state has begun to purchase this vaccine with your tax contributions, but to inoculate health workers. The quest for a better vaccine, which will take a lot of money, makes sense, but to significantly stockpile something that will soon become obsolete is close to being dumb. The problem, of course, is that you can’t develop a vaccine if you don’t know what the strain will be.

All this sort of reminds me of the town fool, walking through downtown Chicago (or anywhere) banging a cymbal all day. When asked why he was doing this, he said he was trying to scare away marauding elephants. The remedy was effective, but was there a problem?

In counterpoint, every day, more than 3,000 people are killed in car accidents, where during the past nine years since this bird flu was first detected, more than 10 million have died in traffic—versus about two hundred bird flu deaths, versus 200 million sacrificed chickens. Kind of reminds me of shark against mankind. They get, oh, 5 of us every year, but we kill 100 million of those marauding predators (and mostly for their fin). Finally, Time reports that 430 babies die each year from sudden infant death caused by secondhand smoke. Anyone doing any research to find a vaccine to prevent smoking? Actually, from the previous section…yes.

A growing concern is the superbug, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), pronounced as mersa. In 2005 in the U.S., MRSA killed 19,000 (and made 94,000 seriously ill) Americans, a year when 17,000 died from AIDS complications. Hospitals and medical treatment centers are mostly responsible for this problem. But that’s another subject.

On May 31, 2006, it was reported that the H5N1 bird flue killed six of seven relatives in remote village in Indonesia, so, maybe, the virus had finally mutated. No, just poor sanitary practices did in this unlucky group. In the weeks following the quarantine from May 22, no additional cases were reported, and a genetic check on the virus indicated it had not mutated. There was a further quip that Indonesia is just, basically, screwed up as a government and can’t seem to organize anything. Now with 100 avian flu deaths as of 2008, Indonesia has leaped past Vietnam’s 48 fatalities.358

So what is the big deal with H5N1? I don’t know. The only way this specific avian flu can cause a pandemic is if the virus mutates, and while I’ve read reports stating that very few bird flu viruses have ever done this to infect humans, I saw an unsubstantiated newspaper report implying that flu viruses are prone to genetic mutations. What is the reality? Is this yet another example of airport security overkill? Don’t get me started on that one.

My simple solution is to be vigilant, but stop overreacting. You might be one of the more than half a billion or so slated to catch the flu this year, but the odds are infinitesimal for you being nailed by H5N1. Okay, it would be smart to avoid chicken farms in the Orient, and don’t prepare any dead fowl found in the woods for dinner, but don’t let this scare affect your eating habits. About all this money being spent as a precaution? Spend a small percent of it on educating the public about pandemics and continue researching the baselines for a future vaccine, but let’s not get carried away by something that almost surely will not happen.
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The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 161 to 8163. World markets also all fell. Crude oil continues to drop (see right) and gold dropped a buck to $924/toz.
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Tropical Storm Blanca (40 MPH) is 500 miles southwest of Baha, moving northwest. It will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler water.
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Monday, July 6, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 17)

The following continues Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:



The End of Diseases

Edward Jenner, (photo above) more than two centuries ago, established the foundation for immunology by developing a vaccine for smallpox. No one in the world died this past year from this disease.
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A couple hundred still succumb each year to polio and the plague, plus a couple of thousand from yellow fever and cholera. We are doing very well in neutralizing some of these classical diseases, for smallpox killed 2 million as recently as 1967. Up to 30 million died from Black Death (bubonic plague) in Europe 700 years ago and cholera took the lives of 500,000 in the 1830’s in New York City alone. However, one child dies of malaria in Africa every 29 seconds…one person is infected with HIV every 6.4 seconds…someone in the world expires from TB every 18 seconds. The major disease deaths come from HIV/AIDS (up to 3 million), malaria (up to 2 million) and tuberculosis (less than 2 million). But 56 million people annually pass away and 130 million are born, with the world population continuing to increase.

There were up to 6 million cases of malaria in the U.S. in the 40’s, which dropped to almost nothing by the 50’s through the spraying of DDT (dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane). Similar results occurred worldwide. Paradoxically, DDT was said to be the spur for Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, which initiated the environmentalist movement, ultimately resulting in banning DDT use. After being prohibited for thirty years, the World Health Organization, though, began to again use DDT to control malaria, but in 2007 remarked that it is committed to phasing out the use.

More DDT, less malaria deaths. Less DDT, more malaria deaths. What to do? You say, why not use something else. Well, there is no something else today. They say vaccines are getting close, but this has been touted for several decades now.

In the U.S., heart disease and cancer account for more than half of all deaths. In the world, heart disease takes only 12.4% and cancer comes in at tenth place. Why? Because those in the developing world die earlier from HIV, diarrhea, tuberculosis and assorted other maladies.

The Gates Foundation has, perhaps, the ideal balanced goal. Do what you can today by providing vaccinations to save lives, while sponsoring research to eliminate those diseases in the future. The Foundation has about $66 billion to spend, almost half coming from Warren Buffet. It allocates about 5% of its worth each year, meaning that 95% gets invested, sometimes in controversial areas.

Perhaps a more sensible development area is to take the positive approach, that is, one whereby the body is strengthened to prevent diseases. There is exercise, of course…good diet, surely…reasonable body weight, certainly. But vaccines to prevent obesity, smoking and illegal drug use? They will all probably come because of demand, and a lean gene has already been detected in worms, flies and mice.

The same can be said for raising IQs and changing the body physique. The modern Wonder Woman or 21st Century $6 Million Dollar Man will begin to merge with machines. Transplants are now ordinary and totally non-biological body parts are routine. Artificial blood, cancer-killing nanobots, and immunotherapy treatments are just around the corner, if not tomorrow, than certainly in the 22nd century.

In 1907, Alois Alzheimer, a German neuropathologist, first identified certain protein clumps in the brain of patients with dementia. A polymer of a peptide, or a neurotoxic molecule called ADDL, has more recently been targeted as the culprit causing nerve cell (neuron) death or disruption. In a few years, a simple blood test will be able to predict whether you will contract Alzheimer’s in two to six years.

There is also the matter of inflammation, a little known immune-system response partly to blame for Alzheimer’s, cancer, diabetes and heart disease. If you can control chronic inflammation—which is stimulated by things like stress, overeating and smoking—you will be well on your way to a long life. How do you know you have this ailment? Simple. Talk to your doctor about a blood test for C-reactive protein (CRP). The higher your CRP, the worse the inflammation.

I served on the board of Hawaii Biotech during its transformative years, and observed the debate between developing vaccines for third world diseases such as dengue fever versus focusing on astaxanthin, a carotenoid (a kind of biological pigment) that can be extracted from microalgae, and is said to prevent inflammation. The result was a sensible split into two companies to do both.

As I have been jokingly critical of oil companies and former presidents, let me add one more target, the medical professioin. But first, an internet joke: 700,000 doctors supposedly cause 120,000 accidental deaths each year, so there is a 17% kill rate/doctor. There are 80 million gun owners in the U.S., with 1500 accidental deaths/year. That is a rate of 0.002%/gun. Are doctors more dangerous than guns?

For one, there is a tendency for doctors to prescribe too much medication. You can’t help but wonder about how much influence the drug companies really have. Second, on the matter of immunotherapy, when, for example, a child has a fever, there is a propensity to recommend Tylenol or aspirin, the purpose being to lower the temperature. Yes, perhaps, the child will then feel more comfortable and go to sleep, but it’s probably more for the mother who feels something has been done. However, the evolution of our body has engineered a reason for fever, which is mostly, I would gather, to combat viruses and bacteria. Then, too, hit with a cold and a runny nose, we take a variety of pills to reduce this condition. If anything, we should help our body by doing everything possible to eliminate this waste. Same for diarrhea. We tend to focus on short term comfort at the expense of long term resolution. I’m not a medical doctor, but I wonder about the illogic of many standard medical treatments.

Well, anyway, when will medical science totally eliminate all diseases? The easy answer is that this will just be a matter of time. The reality could well be apocalyptic, as there have been rumors of a “Black Pox,” some genetic combination of small pox and Ebola, with a 100% casualty rate. Thus, with a few retrogressions now and then inspired by nature, war and deviants, the more pragmatic answer is, sometime after finding the clue to eternal life, as the aging gene might be easier to identify and re-program than finding a cure for the totality of human diseases.

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The Dow Jones Industrials crept up 44 to 8325. World markets all went down, making it all the more remarkable that, after the signs at the end of last week, it went up in the U.S. today. Crude oil continues to drop (see right) and gold fell $5/toz to $925.
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South of Baha, Tropical Storm Blanca at 45 MPH formed, and is moving northwest. It should turn West in a couple of days, entering cooler waters, and hopefully dissipate by Wednesday.
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Saturday, July 4, 2009

INDEPENDENCE DAY



How many of you knew that Independence Day commemorates the adoption of the Declaration on Independence from Great Britain on July 4, 1776? Thomas Jefferson was the primary author. John Adams was also key. In some amazing coincidence, they became succeeding Presidents (Adams #2 and Jefferson #3) and both died 50 years later on July 4, 1826.

Fireworks, of course, are part of the celebration, with the Boston Pops Orchestra over the Charles River Esplanade and A Capitol Fourth on the Mall in D.C. taking center stage on television. Pearl and I were among half a million viewing the event a couple of times when we worked for the U.S. Senate. Getting to a restroom was agonizing. My ranking?


#3 D.C.'s was very traditional, focused around the Washington Monument.


#2 That New York Macy's fireworks were absolutely spectacular. The immensity of it all.



#1 Boston's was elegant and innovative. The blue's were incredible, for, as in flowers, blues are hard to get.


Oh, Happy 233rd Birthday!

A different kind of fireworks might annoy us today. North Korea had planned to fire off a long range missile aimed at Hawaii, thumbing their nose at our holiday. However, we have the intrepid

floating golf ball, also known as the Sea-Based X-Band Radar, protecting us, plus a beefed up missile defense system. Anyhoo, save for a major miracle, their current technology can’t reach us, and as it is already July 5 in Korea, I guess their short seven today ends the watch.

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However, it was about three months ago that North Korea fired their Taepodong-2 virtually over us when we were in Japan, and seemed to head toward Hawaii, but fizzled in the Pacific. North Korea, though, did insist that a satellite was placed in orbit and played revolutionary communist songs. They must have some especially sensitive monitoring equipment, for no one else saw nor heard anything in space.

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Ninety two countries have now visited this blog site: 2681-92-123

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Friday, July 3, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 16)


Other Longevity Factors

 

(The following continues Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.)


Sleep is important for a longer life, and, apparently, the more the better.  Newborn babies and many convicts on death row sleep around 16 hours/day. Teenagers are supposed to get 9 hours/night. The optimal hours for adults range from 7 to 8 hours, but more if you’re pregnant and less if unusually conformed. I remember when I once worked for U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga and a Washington Post article headlined the “Senator Who Never Sleeps.” He boasted that he could get by with only a couple of hours per night. However, he tended to doze off in many hearings.

 

Medical studies have indicated that:

 

o      You lose memory and weaken your immune system through sleep deprivation.

 

o      Working the graveyard shift tampers with the sleep cycle and is reported to cause cancer and other ailments.

 

o      Driver fatigue causes 100,000 motor vehicle accidents/year in the U.S.

 

o      Women might have a higher life expectancy (seven years longer) because they sleep better. This might have to do with learning how to cope with crying babies.

 

o      Poor sleep may raise the risk of diabetes.

 

Of course, sleep depends on genetics, the quality of sleep and timing. For example, naps are returning as a good thing, even in certain companies. One of the benefits of retirement is that you can sleep as much as you want, and for that reason, people like me should thus be healthier and skinnier (see obesity section above).

 

There is the matter of stress. In a nutshell, the less the better. Not sweating the small stuff helps people live longer.

 

Inflammation, the biological defense response of your body to harmful stimuli, was once not an item considered as important for long life. Now it is. You have experienced swelling, and redness. Your body is at work protecting you. Chronic inflammation can lead to tissue destruction and other ailments. Drug and herbal companies try to sell you products to reduce inflammation. Be careful, but there are benefits. Aspirin reduces inflammation. An all-purpose anti-inflammatory pill could well someday control diabetes, cancer, heart disease and dementia. Details will come in the next section, but a simple blood test for C-reactive protein (CRP) can detect inflammation in blood vessels for it is twice more likely than high cholesterol to cause a heart attack.

 

There is something about incubation periods or long term health problems that are disturbing. I recall sitting in on a talk a long time ago—maybe 20 years—about a viral terminal ailment, somewhat similar to mad cow disease, which you contract from eating organ meats. The problem is that if you ate a contaminated meal, you will die 20 years or so later. Wow, any day now! Good thing that the only exception I make is foie gras, for goose liver is not a particularly suspect example.  But even something so simple as E. coli is troubling, for a decade or two later, you can be stricken with high blood pressure and kidney damage. Then there is lead. Higher lead exposure (such as inhaling leaded gasoline fumes and the product of combustion in the 60’s and 70’s) appears to correlate with accelerated aging of your brain. Well, don’t get paranoid…there isn’t much you can do about this now, although, no doubt, to be announced, will be nanobots to rid your body of that virus or advanced chelation (too absorb out the lead) treatments and the like.

 

Finally, do you want to live 14 years longer? According to the Cambridge University, all you need to do is to eat copious amounts of vegetables and fruits, not smoke, exercise and drink alcohol, albeit in moderation.

 

So, then, if you also sleep enough (or a lot), reduce stress and check inflammation, how long will you live? Try Thomas Perls’ Longevity Calculator to indicate how long you will live. Go to www.livingto100.com. It is supposed to take about 10 minutes to complete, but I got kicked out the first time. I tried again and learned I will live to between 96 and 98, meaning I have thirty years to go.

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Crude oil is now down to $65.63/barrel.  Almost a year ago petroleum reached $147/bbl and closed at a high of $145/bbl.  I worry about the stock market on Monday.

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Thursday, July 2, 2009

ETERNAL LIFE (Part 15)

The following continues Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. Sorry for the length, but thought I'd include the entire section.
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So What is Safe to Eat and Drink?

Let me start with a standard disclaimer. These are not my recommendations. The following bullets are culled from the popular written media:

○ First butter was bad, now margarine can be worse. The trans fats (TF) in margarine were the killer, literally. You can now purchase zero TF margarine, and, while this product still has as many calories and fat as butter, it does have less of the saturated variety and is easier to spread (and the healthier ones can be poured), while others can be kept at room temperature longer. Margarine is recommended by both the Cleveland and Mayo Clinics over butter. Ah, but they say, there is something about real butter and cooking. And the dairy industry keeps reminding us that margarine is one molecule from being a plastic.

o Eggs were once to be avoided. Today, they might be back in the diet, for, while it is indeed high in cholesterol, eggs do not increase your personal cholesterol level. Same for shrimp, which has more recently been shown to lower your cholesterol. Some early medical researchers actually got confused between high density lipoprotein, which is good, and the low density version, which is bad. Thus, the latest advice, if you don’t have diabetes, is that there should be no guilt to eating eggs, and, more so, eat as many per week as you want!

o Red meats? Bad! Beef tends to cause cancer, their fat concentrates toxic chemicals and eating too much could increase your weight (I spent a week in Buenos Aires, where I had at least 10 steak meals, gained 4 pounds, and NEVER was able to lose this weight), plus, cattle, both in terms of carbon dioxide and methane, has a terribly high global warming footprint and is bad for the environment. Red processed meat, like bacon and sausage? More horrible! Just 1.7 ounces/day increases the risk of colorectal cancer by 21%. Why? Smoking, nitrates and high sodium. This is somewhat debatable, but you don't need to eat meat to maintain your health. Like almost everything else, if you must, eat beef in moderation.

o High cholesterol does tend to harm the cardiovascular system, but too low a count has negative effects. An increase in violent deaths is associated with lower cholesterol levels. Serotonin, bad temper and over-aggressiveness, too. Anyway, high density lipoprotein is good for your circulatory system.

o Stop eating tuna to avoid mercury poisoning, or this warning might only apply to pregnant women. The most expensive of sashimi, the blue fin tuna, is about as bad as it gets, for tests as high as 6.1 parts per million (0.4 ppm seafood can be banned) have been reported. Very few of you are pregnant, so, as you can’t afford the fatty part of tuna (o-toro) anyway, again, everything in moderation seems like a good recommendation.

o A high fiber diet will prevent colorectal cancer. Not necessarily, says the American Medical Association. But roughage up to 35 grams/day does tend to give you regularity (in bowel movement), lower cholesterol, aid diabetics and help those who suffer from heartburn. Thus, do eat fruits, vegetables, bran muffins and cereals.

o Too much tofu induces brain aging…that was the bombshell headline from a Honolulu Star Bulletin article on November 19, 1999, written by Helen Altonn, reporting on the preliminary work of Lon White of the Pacific Health Research Center. Sales of tofu dropped, significantly. Nearly a decade later, tofu sales are up and soy is still generally looked upon as a gift from God. What happened? Nothing much, except, below the marketing horizon seems to be a dark side hinting that there might be something naturally toxic about this bean. This is not the end of this controversy.

o Boiled peanuts bring out up to four times more disease-fighting phytochemicals (they reduce cancer) than dry or oil roasting the nuts, or leaving them raw. Maybe this is why Hawaii people live longer, as this is a standard item at football tailgate parties and the like.

o Is it true that if you are a Japanese American (that’s me) who drinks fruit juice just every other day, you reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s by 76%? Amazingly, the answer appears to be yes, from the Kame Project, headed by Qi Dai, reported in The American Journal of Medicine: 2006, Volume 119, pages 751-759. Wine is included, so I am very well covered. Why only Japanese Americans? Because the study was of 1836 Japanese Americans living in King County, Washington. Doctor’s are, in this sense, conservative about these things. Odds are that you also would qualify for this advantage.

o Will eating curried rice halt prostate cancer? I love curried foods and, being a male of advancing age, am happy to report that the answer, again, is yes. Curcumin is found in curry as the active agent. Cauliflower and broccoli also are good, but for the phenethyl isothiocyanate. These studies were made on rats, but there, apparently, is reasonable correlation to humans.

o But working the graveyard shift is not good for your health, as the World Health Organization reported that there is a higher incidence of breast and prostate cancer for those who work after daylight. This has something to do with the circadian (biological clock) rhythm being disrupted, reducing the natural production of melatonin, which can suppress tumor development. Also, the body’s immune system becomes more vulnerable with an uneven sleeping schedule. For a small period in my life I worked various shifts at a sugar factory, and I can attest that there was considerable stress placed on my body.

o Is the Chinese restaurant syndrome—consuming food with monosodium glutamate, or ajinomoto—a myth? Yes, it is a myth! Then again, there are some who write that it is real. The medical profession says MSG is safe.

o Salt is bad for your health. Yes, the American Medical Association warns us to watch out for salt in the most innocent of foods, and cutting consumption in half could save 150,000 lives each year. The Institute of Medicine says the 2,300 milligrams of sodium/day standard set by the Federal Government is too high, and should be 1,500 mg/day. However, we consume up to 4,000 mg/day, an equivalence of about two teaspoons. Over the past three years, the sodium chloride (salt) content of cheese has increased by 35%. So it is not a simple matter of adding only so much salt. You much watch what you eat, and processed food has a lot of salt. Then, there are the detractors to a low salt diet. Such is the medical profession, but I would think that, again, like everything else, moderation is best.


o Does green tea help prevent cancer and heart disease? Well, various medical studies are available showing clear benefits. Unfortunately, Ito En, a Japanese company, in 2005 petitioned the Food and Drug Administration to allow them to claim that drinking at least 5 ounces of green tea/day could lower the risk of heart disease. The FDA responded in 2006 that there is no credible evidence. So who’s right? Who knows! I guess the moral of this story is, don’t ask unless you are sure that you will get the right answer.

o What about those who take a handful of vitamins or one large dietary supplement? The record is mixed, and you need to be a bit careful about any long term effects on various organs, especially your liver, but, for example, some combination of B (12 more than 6) complexes and folic acid (another B) seem to fend off Alzheimer’s and is supposed to maintain nerve and red cells, plus help make DNA. However, only 3 ounces of clam provides 14 times the recommended daily value of B12.

o Then there is the container. How safe are plastics, especially when used to microwave food or freeze drinks? This almost sounds like one of those internet hoaxes, but polyvinylchloride is definitely not recommended for this purpose and bisphenol-A (BPA), used in the synthesis of plastics, is more and more appearing on watch lists for baby products. Dioxin is said to be released by microwaving. Cancer, chromosome abnormalities, memory and a full range of symptoms have been suggested. While there was no comprehensive medical report on this subject at the time of this writing, a sensible rule of thumb is to use glass for microwaving, but freezing should lower chemical transfer, so do what you must. Somehow, The Johns Hopkins University is usually cited, and they have continued to state that these stories are urban legend and not linked with medical tests. The difficulty is that there are more than 20 million registered chemicals, and the FDA has more important problems to tackle.

You can chalk it up to the benefits of advancing medical research and sway with the latest scoop or more probably conveniently lose confidence in those medical recommendations that compromise your lifestyle.

Red wines deserve a category of their own:

o Is it the resveratrol in red wine that helps the heart? Probably. Better yet, champagne contains high amounts of polyphenols, which are also conducive to better health, so red champagne (from pinot noir and cabernet sauvignon grapes) could well be even better for your health. I actually invested in a start-up company to import sparkling red wine from Europe, but mainly because I thought RED CHAMPAGNE could be marketed in China with that description (in Chinese). Red is symbolic with celebration.

○ Wine is supposed to promote longevity, slow brain decline, and lower heart disease, diabetes, stroke, cataracts and colon cancer risks, but much of this is published in wine magazines, as for example just in Wine Spectator for 2007:

■ The Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry reported that the University of Pavia in Italy found both red and white wine prevent the growth of streptococci associated with tooth decay and sore throats (October 15).

■ Neuroscience indicated that researchers from the University of Porto determined that rats given heavy doses of red wine did not suffer memory damage, compared with those given pure alcohol. These red wine rats performed as well as those only drinking water (October 31).

■ The Journal of Carcinogenesis featured an article from the University of Alabama showing that red wine protected the prostate.

■ The Journal of Neuroscience reports that one or two glasses of wine per day improves memory.

Here, the wine industry is not necessarily funding the study, this wine publication just selectively reports the information. I give wine the benefit of any possible doubt because it’s trendy, tasty and makes you high. Soon, a test will be available to steer you away from red wines that cause red wine headache. It’s all in the amines, which are found in wine and sake, but not much in beer. Of course, there are winos, and any responsible person would know that anything to excess can be bad. How much is just right? Well, the consensus seems to be ten ounces (2 glasses) per day as being good for a typical male, and a lower amount for females who are proportionately smaller. A bottle in the U.S. is 26 ounces.
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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk 223 to 8280, reacting to the worse than anticipated jobs report. Unemployment is now up to 9.5% (remember, though, that it was just about 25% at the peak of the Great Depression). World markets were all down, save for Sweden. Crude oil dropped to $66/barrel on fear of continued recession. Even gold fell, $11/toz to $930.
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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

ARE WE GETTING TOO OLD?







Swerving away from eternal life to the other end of the moral spectrum, the following was published today in The Huffington Post:









BACKGROUND

I am currently featuring Eternal Life in my daily report, which is Chapter 2 of Simple Solutions for Humanity. Globally, almost 60 million die each year. This total could well drop by a huge fraction if the aging gene is found and checked. Developed countries are already getting old. Eternal Life could become a real problem.

As an early step, look for a full court press in the U.S. Congress on health. I expect some sensible action here, especially with the arrival of Al Franken. No, not because he is the medical savior, but because he is now the 60th Democrat in the U.S. Senate. 

However, wait till they need to later re-look at retirement, as the 65 age requirement was enacted in 1935 when the life expectancy was 62. Yes, in 1983 an adjustment was made to increase this age to 67 by 2027, but by then the life expectancy will be 82. There is a significant disconnect here with reality, but this condition is also encouraged by a private sector desiring better educated and cheaper youth over less productive and expensive elders.  

See #6 above to view how long Europeans, Japanese and Americans can enjoy retirement.  Mind you, I'm all for this terrible situation in my present capacity.  Appreciate, then, below, how AARP will continue to fight for me .

POPULATION

While the world population today is 6.8 billion (click to get current number), you might find interest in how we came to be. It is estimated that there have been about 100 billion of us since a little more than 150,000 years ago when Homo sapiens appeared. Halfway into our existence, about 74,000 years ago, we almost went extinct when Mt. Toba, another Sumatran volcano, erupted, keeping the world "dark" for six years. Our population dropped to, perhaps 1,000. As recently as 10,000 BC, there might still have only been a thousand of us, or maybe as much as 10,000. There are no census reports. Estimates vary, but there were probably several hundred thousand humans around the time of Jesus Christ in the Year Zero.

The first billion was reached in 1804, second in 1927, fourth in 1974 and the next doubling to 8 billion is expected to occur in 2025. Nine billion is now looming for around 2050 or later. We might never reach 10 billion for reasons to be presented. However, considering resource availability, the ideal world population should certainly be far less than the current 6.8 billion. Some doomsdayers say it is already too late.

Our population reached two peaks: 2.2% annual growth in 1963 and 163 million births about a decade ago, now already down to 137 million/year. This growth rate, fortunately, has been halved today.

China has the highest population with 1.3 billion, India is #2 at 1.1 billion (but will overtake China by 2030), Europe is #3 with 0.5 billion and the USA #4 with 0.3 billion. India will gain #1 status in two decades. In 1900, Africa had 8% of the people and Europe had 24%. In 2150, the prediction is that Africa will have 24% and Europe 5%.

ARE WE GETTING TOO OLD?

The answer is yes for developed countries, and here is what is happening. Much of Europe is already experiencing negative population growth. Russia, at 140 million today, will drop to 110 million in 2050. Japan, now at 127 million, will sink below 100 million in 2050. Interestingly enough, the U.S. is still growing (see #3 above--note that the USA is the only country above 2.0 on fertility alone), 40% of this by immigration. Hmm, that border issue? Maybe we do need more youth. Our superpower status should be completely unchallenged by mid century because even China, because of their current birth control policy, will get old before becoming rich.

Thus, another huge economic crisis is looming because, for developed countries, in the 80's, 5 workers supported a retired person. This has dropped to 4:1 and will crash to 2.2:1 in 2050. The current Economist has a special report on aging populations, and much of the following is extracted from that feature.

Let's look at China, for if they get serious about one child per family, this individual will have two parents and four grandparents to support, or 1:6. Note that this ratio has reversed. Of course, China does not have that strict a policy and some of the grandparents will not be around. In any case, the ratio could well be less than 1:1. The two countries we most toss around as current and future enemies, China and Russia, will thus have huge internal problems over the next few decades. The time might now already be at hand to shift our lopsided national security expenses toward more humanitarian pursuits in anticipation of their decline. Iran and North Korea will not stimulate a nuclear winter.

Yes, we still are wrestling with our economy, and coming down the pike are Peak Oil and Global Warming. If the American Clean Energy and Security Act is a sign of how effectively we are considering these issues, I shudder to think what will happen to aging, for more than half of our population will be older than 50 by 2025. In particular, watch out for AARP (formerly known as the American Associated of Retired Persons). 

The whole point of the above is that decisions on retirement age must be made, if not now, very soon, or the politics of the situation will make necessary decisions impossible. Oh, Eternal Life? Never mind.
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The Dow Jones Industrials rose 57 to 8504, while world markets also mostly increased.  Crude oil is now just below $70/barrel.  Interesting how Saudi Arabia a few months ago indicated that $70/bbl was just about right, and the price has indeed vacillated around that price.  Gold rose $12/toz to $941.  

My blog stock challenge today is at 1.56 (that is, I am ahead by 56%).
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If you were wondering why the traditional Atlantic hurricane from off the African coast has not made an appearance, note how cool the waters are in the East Atlantic.  But give it some time.

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