CRIME AND WARS (Part 37)

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 1 from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity: (The numbers are for references.)

.

Is it Possible to Survive Without a Military?

In a word, yes. There are 24 countries with no military. Costa Rica, Iceland, Mauritius and Panama have no defense expenditures. However, they form alliances and maintain a police force of some sorts. Grenada actually gave theirs up after the U.S. invasion in 1983.

None of these countries seem terribly concerned about an invader. In fact, a strong case can be made about how utilization of all tax dollars for peaceful and economic purposes would actually strengthen the country. There must be a clue here as to what to do about large defense budgets. Just think, if no country had a military, then no country would be threatened. There must be a simple solution here, somewhere. My very first Huffington Post article published almost a year ago suggested a mechanism for getting to ZeroD.


Is World Peace Possible?

The Bushmen of the Kalahari live with no internal or external violence. In fact, there are at least 25 societies around the world today with little or no warfare.596 In Beyond War, Douglas Fry demonstrates how war can become obsolete.205 He differentiates between human frailty towards personal problems and warfare. The former is natural, the latter, can be controlled. The bottom line, from studying aboriginal societies, is that fighting wars is not an essential attribute of society. Warfare is not inevitable.

Ironically, waging peace has not been a safe task. Mahatma Gandhi and Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin were assassinated seeking the peace. The Dalai Lama proposed a Team Nobel to prevent wars, an inspired, but hazardous, idea.

The Spark Matsunaga-inspired U.S. Institute for Peace has found a home in Washington, D.C., and is a think tank with a goal towards resolving conflicts through peace, not war. A partnership with similar organizations throughout the world, the religious sector of society and the United Nations seems hopeful as the structure for the future.

While not exactly world peace, there are various humanitarian and environmental missions that can serve as pathways to amity. Certainly, military units throughout the globe have assisted during major natural disasters. That’s a given. Also, too, there seems to be a calling for adding environmental remediation as a complementary task. There are many more examples worthy of consideration (that article mentioned above suggests having a segment of the current military transition out by working on green energy technology), but just one, providing shelter for the homeless, should be underscored as an opportunity. Military bases become obsolete and navy ships are mothballed. Each base commander should be urged to reach out to the community. The advantage of involving the armed forces is that they also have the capability to provide re-training. A little irony, but in Chapter 5, it is suggested that each church also become engaged in this mission, for they too have the means to link with jobs through their congregation. What better partnership than war and peace to assist humanity?

But to the purpose of this section, one surefire way for the world to cooperate is from a threat to the entire Planet. We saw this in Independence Day and Mars Attacks, movies where aliens try to conquer us. An interesting point was made in the fourth “Body Snatchers,” this one in 2007 called The Invasion: where one of the aliens tries to persuasively argue that there would then be no war in Iraq, no genocide in Darfur…no conflict in general. This would mean that everyone would become a Stepford Human. There is something missing in a society without any conflict. Do we ban the Olympics for being too internationally competitive? Little League Baseball?

In any case, there must be something better than what we have today, and Herman Wouk has been quoted to say: “War is an old habit of thought, an old frame of mind, an old political technique that must now pass as human sacrifice and human slavery have passed.” As Kenneth Boulding, a speaker at one of the workshops I early co-directed, said, “anything that exists is possible.” Yes, worldwide peace is most definitely possible as our civilization matures. It’s only a matter of time.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials eased up today by 50 to 8469, while world markets almost all fell. Gold went up $10/toz to $923 and oil slightly increased. You can read the article, "Three Cheers for Higher Oil Prices."
-
The American hurricane season does not begin until June 1, but, in case you were wondering, these will be the names to come this year:

Atlantic Storms:
Ana,
Bill,
Claudette,
Danny,
Erika,
Fred,
Grace,
Henri,
Ida,
Joaquin,
Kate,
Larry,
Mindy,
Nicholas,
Odette,
Peter,
Rose,
Sam,
Teresa,
Victor,
Wanda,
.
Pacific Storms:
.
Andres,
Blanca,
Carlos,
Dolores,
Enrique,
Felicia,
Guillermo,
Hilda,
Ignacio,
Jimena,
Kevin,
Linda,
Marty,
Nora,
Olaf,
Patricia,
Rick,
Sandra,
Terry,
Vivian,
Waldo,
Xina,
York,
Zelda,
-

COUNTRY #5: ANGOLA

The Republic of Angola, bordered by the Congo (north), Zambia (east), Namibia (south) and the Atlantic Ocean, following 400 years of rule, gained independence from Portugal in 1975. After a 27-year civil war, peace was reached in 2002 with the death of rebel leader Jonas Savimbi. The current chief of state is President Jose Eduordo Dos Santos.

.

In "Peace Reveals Horrors of War," Doctors Without Borders reveals the tragedy. One million were killed, half the population was dislocated and half a million left the country. Landmines have maimed 100,000, leaving Angola with the highest amputees/capita in the world. There are 92,000 patients/doctor.

Angola is twice the size of Texas (five times that of the UK) and the life expectancy is 38.2. Yes, 38.2. It is a member of OPEC, producing 2 million barrels/day of oil. It is the largest supplier of oil to China, and 20,000 Chinese live there. While the GDP/capita is only $8800 and 70% of the population of nearly 13 million (Texas has 24 million, UK 61 million) rest below the poverty line, the growth rate has been spectacular since attaining peace.

Hydropower accounts for nearly two-thirds of electricity produced. The exchange is 75 kwanza/U.S. Dollar. There are 243 airports and military expenditures are nearly 6% of GDP. Clearly, the future of Angola is directly related to the absence of hostilities and the reprioritization of funds to human needs. American Idol reports on Angola tomorrow night.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 156 to 8419 and world markets were almost all down. Gold dropped a buck to $913. Oil slipped (see right). President Barack Obama fired the opening shot on health care today, pledging to reduce costs by $2 trillion over the next decade. Now, Congress needs to wrestle with the details.
-

MOTHER'S DAY

Interestingly enough, for the USA, at least, Mother’s day was trademarked by Anna Jarvis in 1912 as the second Sunday in May and declared by President Woodrow Wilson as an official holiday, and every president since then. The apostrophe is after mother to signify your specific mother. Some countries have celebrated this day for centuries, but most copied the U.S. and use May 10 this year and will use May 9 next year.

About Anna Jarvis, she began protesting this day, and was arrested in 1948 for disturbing the peace, saying she would not have initiated the honor if she knew how commercialized it would become. The economic collapse means that only $12.9 billion will be spent worldwide this year, nearly a 15% drop from last year. 7.8% of annual revenues from the U.S. jewelry industry come from Mother’s Day gifts.

You probably noted that pink bats were used today, the annual Major League Baseball “Going to Bat Against Breast Cancer” initiative to raise awareness. Contributions go to the Susan G. Komen for the Cure fund. Pink ribbon decals are used on the uniform, and official lineup cards, wristbands and even shoes turn pink.

THE BLOG STOCK CHALLENGE

To help quell the doom being forecast by certain colleagues, I bought certain stocks during stock market downturns in November last year and early March this year. Part of this was to promote “Buy America” and to support firms that were developing innovative sustainable technologies (as for example, Lockheed Martin for OTEC, GE for wind energy conversion devices and Boeing for a possible hydrogen jetliner). My regular portfolio actually was not affected in total by the recession drop, but only because of some Amazon.com shares I bought long ago. Regarding the recent purchases of Microsoft, GE, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, ProShares Ultra Basic Materials and Ford, as of this weekend, I am ahead by 3%.
-

I am now up to 73 countries visiting this blog site:

.

1636-197-73

-

FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE SUMIDA SAFARI

My five week search for Kenjiro's grandmothers and perfection with the dimpled spheroid is coming to a close. As I craft this blog, above is my view from the Presidents Club at the Las Vegas airport. Red Carpet members are allowed privileges with Continental, except for one outstanding difference: this club serves alcoholic drinks for free.

For those who wondered what the answer was to the blog yesterday, the above photo is of Sharon and Dan Takahashi at the Planet Hollywood. We had dinner at Koi, a Japanese fusion restaurant. I feel compelled to mention four things:

.

1. A large sign outside the entrance featured half price drinks for restaurant and lounge. Not so, as we were told when ordering that those drinks were only if we sat in the lounge, but we could move there and eat in the bar if we so wished. So, no drinks.

.

2. The waitress excitedly informed us that they had authentic Japanese wagyu beef tonight, but only revealed the price when I asked...$95. Mind you, Marukai sells Omi beef at $154/pound in Hawaii (on special order), so this is not far-fetched, but she nevertheless still should have mentioned the cost.

.

3. I started with miso soup. First, for $5, the soup was in a very small bowl, and second, it was tepid, both in temperature and taste.

.

4. For my main entre, I ordered spicy maguro on crispy grilled rice. The dish was neither spicy nor crispy.

We noticed that there was another room with a view of the Bellagio fountains. If you ever can overcome my dreary review, ask for a table with that view.

Another piece of modern artwork from Planet Hollywood.

As times are bad, lower-priced tickets (not quite halved) can be found at various booths. However, if you want to see Beyonce from July 30-August 2, the lowest price is $250, going up to $1000. Barry Manilow, yes, Barry Manilow, starts at $110, with a high of $253.50. Why they bother to extract another 50 cents mystifies me, but there is more. Bette Midler is $100-$255, Jersey Boys $70.70-$249.50, Terry Fator (remember America's Got Talent?) $69.90 to $146.90, and Joe Cocker will be back on the 20th of this month. He still lives, as does Tom Jones, at $92.50.

Somehow, I got the uncomfortable feeling, not unlike when I was in Cairo, that the tough times have stimulated small scams, with the Koi experience only being a typical example. The golf was great, but those bubbling brooks gurgled with recycled water, providing a second reason not to approach them, for the smells were only too obvious. Next year, maybe Viet Nam.

-

At this writing, the stock market is booming, up 165 to 8575, encouraged by jobs and banking news. Actually the good news is that things were not as bad as feared. Gold is a bit up at $917 and crude oil appears headed to crash through $60/barrel, now at $58+. PVM Oil Associates expects oil to rally up to $78/bbl in six months. Remember that the U.S. Department of Energy and other economic prognosticators were expecting oil to average $45/bbl this year. Needless to say, I told you not to believe them.

-

The Philippines got a typhoon one-two punch, first from Kujira and yesterday Chan Hom, the former killing 27 and the latter at least 19. Kujira has dissipated and Chan Hom is also expected to weaken. Kujira is Japanese for whale and Chan Hom is a Laotian tree.

-

CRIME AND WARS (Part 36)

It was not an ordeal, for the weather was generally good and how difficult can it be to ride around in a cart over well manicured grass. Guess where I am today? Tomorrow, back to Honolulu.

I was mildly chided for ignoring my serialization of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. Of course, you can purchase the book, but, to continue on Chapter 1, I present Part 36...and it was a long time ago when I started summarizing this book.

.

The United Nations

But before getting to the punch line, as the world will need a coordinating entity to organize the peace, let us start with some interesting facts:

o The World population took twelve years to increase from 5 billion in 1988 to 6 billion in 2000, and will take another dozen years to reach 7 billion, in 2012.

o There are 194 countries, 192 with membership in the United Nations, plus the Vatican and Taiwan, which in July 2007 again was rejected. (In parallel, I am now capsulizing each country, alphabetically.)

o China and Russia each border 14 other countries.

o The Gross World Product is $66 trillion (2006), with that of the United States being $11 trillion, so GWP/person is $10,000/year, compared to GNP/person of $37,000 for the U.S.

o Globally, the median age is 28, and the current life expectancy at birth is 66 years.

o One-third are Christians and one-fifth are Muslims.

The only global organization with any kind of influence today was founded in 1945, replacing the League of Nations. Franklin D. Roosevelt is credited with first suggesting the name, United Nations. The headquarters are located in New York City on land purchased from funds donated by John D. Rockefeller, Jr., and the Secretary General is Ban Ki-moon of South Korea.

Much of the global climate change leadership came from the 1992 UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The UN also has convened conferences on population, trade efficiency, disarmament and social development. Peacekeeping (with a staffing of 70,000), human rights development, international law adjudication and humanitarian assistance are leading missions of this organization.

The UN budget is intricate. While in 2006 the U.S. was assessed 22% (the maximum) of the nearly $2 billion, or $424 million ($1.42 per American citizen), it is estimated that we actually are contributing about $3 billion ($10/person) / year because of special assessments, primarily for peacekeeping. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, as an example, was an added cost to the UN of $260 million. Japan paid $374 million ($3.94/citizen) to the regular budget, the second most by far, and Liberia provided $19,000. Yes, the U.S. is arrears on some payments as a protest in principle, and also is regularly tardy, but late payments are standard international practice.

Many families don’t manage their affairs too well. So too can be said for villages, companies, universities and governments. The UN is the worst of all, but understandably so. Reforming the UN has become a mantra: membership on the Security Council, bureaucracy, transparency, accountability, efficiency, etc. Thus, in 2005, the UN convened a World Summit involving the heads of state of member countries to make a once-in-generation attempt to craft bold decisions on areas of development, security, human rights and reform. The conferees agreed to:

o create a Peace building Commission and a Human Rights Council;

o step-in when any national government does not fulfill their responsibility to protect their own citizens from atrocity crimes;

o increase internal oversight ;

o commit significant funds toward achieving Millennium Development Goals;

o condemn terrorism; and

o found a Democracy Fund.

In 2004, President George W. Bush, at the UN General Assembly, said:

Because I believe the advance of liberty is the path to both a safer and better world, today, I propose establishing a Democracy Fund within the United Nations. This is a great calling for this great organization…To show our commitment to the new Democracy Fund, the United States will make an initial contribution.

The U.S. provided $10 million, the same as India and Qatar, although an additional $8 million was promised. One hundred forty-one ministers meeting at the Community of Democracies in Santiago, Chile the following year embraced the concept, and on July 4, yes, Independence Day for the USA, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced the establishment of a UN Democracy Fund. The program will promote and consolidate new and restored democracies.

Well, that’s terrific, but, alas, unless Mars Attacks, nothing much will happen and things will continue to proceed as poorly as they have, forever. That said, the UN remains our best hope to lead the way to eternal peace.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 102 to 8410 and world markets were mixed. Gold dropped a buck to $910/toz and oil slipped a bit (see right). Interestingly enough, gasoline dropped below the price of ethanol, signalling a boost for this renewable fuel...as much as I think ethanol is bad for the economy and Planet Earth.

-

Tropical Storm Kujira, after killing 27 in the Philippines as a typhoon, is continuing to dissipate east of Japan, and will further weaken. Flights from Hawaii, to Tokyo, though, could be affected. Typhoon Chan-Hom made landfall and has now broken up in Northern Luzon. Considerable rain in Manila, and a lot more further north.

-

COUNTRY #4: ANDORRA

After 715 years of joint rule by France and Spain (located between those two countries), The Principality of Andorra became a parliamentary democracy in 1993, and their two leaders are, thus, Nicolas Sarkozy and Bishop Joan Sicilia.

.

The country is mountainous, depends on tourism (7.6 million/year--about the same as Hawaii) and does not have an income tax. It is 2.5 times the size of Washington, D.C and has a population of 84,000. Roman Catholicism is dominant, the literacy rate is 100%, GDP/capita is $42,500 (#10 in CIA World Factbook), and has a police service, but no military.

Life expectancy is 82.5, higher than Japan at 82.1. Macau (which is only an entity) is at 84.4. Thus, Andorra is the country with the highest life expectancy. The U.S. is 45th at 76.3. Swaziland is lowest at 32.2.

Well, the Sumida Safari came to a hot conclusion today: 27 holes at the Sunrise Vista Golf Course (also known as the golf course at Nellis Air Force Base) in 100 degree weather. At 6:30PM, the temperature had only dropped to 97 degrees. Richard Tokairin missed the photo shoot above. After seven consecutive days of play, the grand prize winner was, tada...Wally Takasane.

What did Wally have to do to win? Maintain constant dedication and focus to the game. For example, in Honolulu he shows up at the Ala Wai Golf Course at 10:30PM three nights a week to be first in line for golf the following day. He sleeps in his car at the course. On Tuesdays, he joins three others who leave Salt Lake at 5:30AM to drive to Makaha for golf. On those days he doesn't actually play, he has his personal practice field on Ford Island. He once was a 203 average bowler. I can imagine he must have found himself at some bowling alley every day. What did he win for his sterling play? About what it costs for a Japanese breakfast at the Park Hyatt in Tokyo.

-
The Dow Jones Industrials surged past 8500, up 102 to 8512. Gold increased $14/toz to $911 and oil crept above $56/barrel (see right).
-

Kujira is now a tropical storm and should soon dissipate. It remained at 150 miles east of Japan, moving northeast. However, Chan-Hom is now a typhoon, and will strike Northern Luzon on Thursday.

-

CINCO DE MAYO AND THE SWINE FLU

Today is May 5, or Cinco de Mayo in Spanish. The day now is sort of a Mexican holiday celebrating an unexpected victory on May 5, 1862 over a superior French army that had not experience defeat in almost half a century.

.
While relatively insignificant in Mexico, possibly because France prevailed anyway a few years later, and only bowed out of the country on American pressure, the date is observed around the world as a celebration of Mexican pride and heritage. The U.S. is particularly indulgent about international festivities of this nature, and, like St. Patrick’s Day and Oktoberfest, there might be a parade, and, almost surely, considerable partying, featuring tequila, usually in the form of margheritas, plus any form of Mexican beer.

.
This day takes special importance this year because the swine flu has devastated Mexican tourism. But there will be no recovery because even in the U.S., several cities, such as Dallas and Chicago, cancelled the celebration in fear of this non-existent epidemic.

.
All this, as I’ve long been saying, is overblown because the total number of swine flu cases worldwide is around 1500 (with, maybe, 30 deaths), and each day, at least 1000 die of flu complications, anyway. The World Health Organization pandemic alert level is almost meaningless, as 6, the highest, only means that the virus spreads from human-to-human in at least one other country in another WHO region. We appear to be today at 5, which means human-to-human spread of the virus in two or more countries in one WHO region. Anyway, at least the Center for Disease Control finally gained their senses and today declared that schools should not anymore be closed.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials slipped 16 to 8411 and world markets were mixed. Gold dropped $6/toz to $897. Crude continues to increase (see right).

-
Typhoon Kujira at 115 MPH is now south of Japan, but should move northeast in parallel with the country and weaken. There should be no threat, but, some waves. But Tropical Storm Chan-Hom, at 65 MPH, is located about 550 miles west of Manila and moving east northeast, projected to make landfall as a typhoon on Saturday.
-

Is there a country with a higher life expectancy than Japan? Yes, and tomorrow, it is featured here.

-

COUNTRY #3: ALGERIA

If you think your country is having problems, these nations being summarized so far are in worse shape. Now on to yet another one.

In the 1880’s there were two (Barbary) wars with the USA. These Barbary Pirates were a real pain, for unlike the present Somali Pirates, this earlier version supposedly captured and enslaved more than a million Europeans, and the French, Spanish and English lost a thousand ships. Of course, this went on through three centuries.

From this adventurous beginning came the People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria, which after a century of French rule, gained independence in 1962. It has been in a constant civil war since then, with 100,000 deaths.

Located between Morocco and Tunisia in Northern Africa, it is more than three times the size of Texas, being the largest Mediterranean country and second largest in Africa (Sudan is #1 in size). The population is 34 million, of which 99% are Sunni Muslim. The capital is Algiers and president is Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Algeria has reasonably large oil and natural gas reserves, and produces 2 million barrels/day of crude and 86 billion cubic meters of natural gas/year. It has strong military alliances with Russia and China. While trade with the U.S. is four times more than with France, the latter suffers in the social exchange from immigration, as more than a million Algerians, almost all Muslims, live there.

The country has 142 airports. GDP/capita is $7,000. The exchange rate is 63 dinars to the U.S. Dollar, and has been dropping of late.

Seventy percent of lawyers are women and this gender also dominates in medicine. Sixty percent of university students are female.

Thus, from Barbary Pirates to a society soon to be led by women. The future looks interesting, indeed.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 214 to 8427, buoyed by promising housing news. World markets mostly rose, save for, again, Sweden. Gold increased $17/toz to $904. Oil is surging (see price rise on right). These indicators seem to validate the contention that the world economy is stabilizing.
-

WEEKEND BRIEF ON THE WORLD

1. Regarding the swine flu, in the April 24 daily blog, I said:

So, before you get too uptight about travelling anywhere or contemplate wearing some kind of mask in public because a few hundred have passed away from the Mexican flu, remember that the world-wide annual death rate from the flu can be up to ONE MILLION. That's the high norm, but hardly a pandemic. Thus, be mildly concerned, but, heavens, don't worry. All governments will hyper-react to this episode because, first, you can't take a chance, but, two, if less than one million die worldwide over the next year from the flu, they can take credit for responsibly preventing an epidemic.

Thus, as predicted, the world overreacted in the days following the original mention of the swine flu. Very quickly, the pork industry very effectively influenced the virus, still H1N1, to be called the North American flu. Remember, at last check, the number of deaths from this flu in Mexico is 15, which is about as many as get killed each year from falling coconuts (see SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity). Now, there is the predictable backtracking, and commentators are beginning to express a careful sentiment for sensible normality. Governments, though, can point with pride to their responsiveness, and take some credit for preventing an epidemic. Schools can be re-opened and people can comfortably travel, although enclosed environments circulating all sorts of germs, such as in air travel ,will always be a health risk. You can certainly stay home and still slip in the bathtub, so enjoy life while you can, for your lifetime is limited. In the meantime, the Mexican economy will no doubt undergo yet another mini-collapse, but the general public will at least have been somewhat educated. Perhaps this near wolf-crying experience will help minimize overreactions in the future.

2. Sometime soon, the Planet Mars might replace the Swine Flu as the next media event. Like the Swine Flu, much of the information being circulated on the World Wide Web is dubious, if not hyped. This proximity actually occurred in August of 2003, and if you missed this celestial event, Mars was said to be 85 times brighter than normally. If you don't remember this spectacular, it just shows how quickly you forget. However, don't expect too much from any 2009 encounter. Mars will approach reasonably close to Earth in January of 2010.

3. After three days, the Sumida Safari has played at Falcon Ridge, Wolf Creek (said to be the third toughest in the nation) and The Ledges, a Matt Dye course, where there is a Jack Nicklaus Academy. Wolf Creek is featured in the EA Sports Tiger Woods PGA Tour ’09, and was a humbling experience. The Ocean Course (Kiawah Island) has a slope rating of 155, The International (Massachusetts) is at 154 and Wolf Creek 152. The Koolau Golf Club was 162, but has been humanized to 152, now tied with Wolf Creek as #3 toughest.

- Leroy, Andy, Pat Tanaka and Lefty in top photo and Wally, Gerry, Kenji and I (second photo) at Wolf Creek









Above, Kenji, Leroy and Andy at The Ledges
-
Next: Country #3, Algeria.

-
1439-174*-68 countries

-

COUNTRY #2: ALBANIA

The Republic of Albania, slightly smaller than the state of Maryland, is across the Adriatic Sea from Italy, and shares borders with Montenegro, Kosovo, Macedonia and Greece. Independence was obtained from the Ottoman Empire in 1912, but it was conquered by Italy in 1939, became a communist country in 1944, associated with China in 1960, then went on to establish a democracy in the early 1990’s. It joined NATO in 2008 and is a potential candidate for European Union membership.

The population is 3.6 million with a life expectancy at birth of 78 years, a literacy of nearly 99% and GDP/capita of $6,000. Unemployment is either 12.5%, or a more accurate 30%, because many are resigned to subsistence farming. A quarter of the population is below the poverty line. The people are 70% Muslim. The president is Bamir Topi and capital is Tirane.

97% of electricity is hydropower. It produces about 6500 barrels/day of oil, but consumes nearly 5 times that amount. At 80 leke/U.S. Dollar, the rate has been decreasing. There are 65 television stations. Trafficking of women and drugs are serious problems.

There is a book entitled, Albania Today, by Clarissa De Waal, while the latest info can be found at Albania News. The State Department can be tapped for additional details.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 68, then recovered up 44 at 8212. Except for Sweden (again) and Australia, other world markets increased. Read about the current status. Gold stayed steady at $887/toz and crude oil jumped around 5%.

-