THE PRICE OF OIL

CNNMoney.com today said low oil prices are behind us. Oil finally went above $50/barrel, raising $1.99 to $51.61/bbl. On February 12 my Huffington Post article speculated on whether crude could stay low (meaning $55/barrel or less) for another two years. The answer was yes and no.

To recap, oil cost $16/bbl (in current dollars) in 1998, the lowest it has ever gone. Let me repeat, the absolute minimum oil has ever been in current dollars was only eleven years ago. Yes, in 1972 before the first energy crisis oil sold for $2.85/bbl, but that would be worth $23/bbl today. Then oil went up to $147.27/barrel on 11July08, but dropped to $32.40/bbl on 19December08, a four year low.

No one of authority predicted either price. First, Goldman Sachs earlier in the year speculated oil jumping to $200/barrel, and the $147/bbl made them look like prescient. Then, as oil prices plummeted, they recalculated to a price of $100/bbl for December 2008. Well, they were off by a factor of three when oil dropped closer to $30/bbl.

The latest guesses are from the U.S. Department of Energy and Morgan Stanley, their combined average being $40/bbl for 2009 and $55/bbl for 2010. Go to that February 12 HuffPo for details. Then just yesterday (see my daily blog), NewEdge saw $55/bbl fairly soon. Why bother even reading experts, for my assessment is that they are sometimes right, but almost always wrong.

A commanding point, I think, is the break-even price (BEP) of oil, the cost from which a company or country begins to make money. While the Bank of Kuwait reports the BEP for Saudi Arabia to be $30/bbl, the International Monetary Fund says it really is $54/barrel. Further, the IMF indicates that the BEP for Iraq is $94/bbl and $90/for Iran. Oil from Canadian sands is also at around $54/barrel. All this is without any cap and trade or carbon tax.

The Kyoto Protocol mildly discussed (but did not agree on) a carbon tax of $348/ton carbon (4.74 cents/pound carbon dioxide), which would have added $43.50 for each barrel of oil. While a carbon tax is currently not being considered, if global climate heating is real and serious, and a 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide tax is ever enacted, then Saudi Arabia and Canada would only begin to make a profit if oil sells for more than $100/barrel. Iraq and Iran would need prices closer to $150/barrel.

This is why I say yes or no to $55/bbl oil in 2010. If you base on the best available government and private assessments, then, feel free sticking with that figure. If you are more attuned to the politics of oil, then something on the order of $100/bbl begins to look more probable, especially if any kind of global climate change surcharge begins to show traction.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 86 to 7401 and oil went up $14/toz to $957.

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In the southern hemisphere, Tropical Cyclone Ken is far east of New Zealand and moving away, while what has quickly become a potential major storm, Tropical Cyclone Ilsa, is far west of Australia and moving away. Information is sketchy at this time, as wind speeds from 69 MPH to 115 MPH are being tossed around.

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CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 31)

The following is largely excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

Weapons of Mass Destruction

The term, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), was first used either in 1937 in reference to an aerial bombardment of Spain or in 1945 from the Hiroshima/Nagasaki A-bombs. J. Robert Oppenheimer (who led the Manahattan Project) was quoted to mouth those words in a 1947 speech. President George W. Bush again made WMD popular in the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Although WMD can be chemical, radiological, biological and nuclear, the latter three today are of concern, biological because of unseen dangers from genetic engineering, and nuclear, because the Soviets had at one time built a 100 megaton (MT) H-bomb and exploded a 57 MT monster in 1961. The Oklahoma City fertilizer (chemical) bomb was said to be 0.000002 MT, and the largest A-bomb possible (Little Boy as much as 0.000015 MT and Fat Boy 0.000022MT) is far less than 1 MT.

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The greater menace, though, now, are the potential dirty radioactive bombs of terrorists. For the sake of peace, at least nuclear WMD devices have shrunk from 100 MT to 0.00000001, plus or minus a couple of decimal points.  So, ironically, the least feared of the three, radiological, seems now to be the most dangerous.  Future postings on this subject will deal with why, how to build a dirty bomb, and even an Atomic Bomb. Terrorists need not wait, for you can go straight to Google and get all the information you need.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dawdled in the negative until the final two hours, reaching a high of +175, then settling to plus 91 at 7487. No, the bashing of AIG bonuses had nothing to do with the upbeat movement. It had more to do with the Federal Reserve indicating that it would buy $300 billion in long-term Treasurys. This will bring down interest rates. I wonder where they're getting all this money, but the FR also announced that they would be purchasing an additional $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Remember that the total cost of the Manhattan Project, Marshall Plan and Apollo Project, brought up to 2009 dollars, was less than $250 billion. The FR also held the interest rate at 0%. Oh, the FR sat in on all those meetings with AIG to give those ridiculous bonuses, and apparently, never bothered to tell the White House, Treasury or Congress. This info will no doubt be adjusted later today, but that was what seemed to come out of the congressional hearings today.

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Crude oil is inching up there, increasing $1.84/barrel to $49.62. NewEdge speculated that oil soon will hit $55/barrel. Remember, also, that the U.S. Department of Energy and Morgan Stanley were recently pedicting that the average price of oil would remain in the $40/barrel range, and average $55/barrel next year. Well, it's going to happen this year. I repeat my mantra: those who predict oil prices are sometimes right, but are usually wrong. Gold jumped $26/toz to $943.

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ST. PATRICK'S DAY

If a day noted for the high rate of imbibition is named after me, certainly, I must comment. The religious leader depicted to the left was a Roman born in Scotland in Year 387, kidnapped as a teenager in Wales and taken to Ireland, but fled back home to became a minister, returned to the Emerald Island and was almost executed for his missionary work.  He went on to become the Patron Saint of Ireland.

There is a lot of mystery associated with his life, and you will note those reptiles at his feet. Well, there have never been snakes on Ireland, so the story is that the equivalent in those days (from the Christian point of view) were pagans and Druids.

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He did drive these heathens out of Ireland (actually, he mostly converted them), and, for that, and a few other miracles, became a saint. He is associated with preaching the ministry through the shamrock, the three leaved clover standing for the Father, Son and Holy Spirit, and is known to have started more than 300 churches.

St. Patrick’s Day is always on March 17 and is a national holiday in Ireland. In addition to the snake myth, another one is the association with the color green. There is a St. Patrick blue, which is found in the Irish Flag and in the plume of the Irish Guards.

The early Irish settled in Boston and held the first parade as early as 1737, followed by the New York version, in 1762, which is now the world’s largest. These immigrants came in larger numbers when the potato famine of the mid-1880’s killed more than 5 million and forced widespread emigration. They had a tough beginning as the Ku Klux Klan then sided more with the blacks than the Irish.

So how did this European inspire annual drunken bouts in every one of our 50 states (even Utah has a parade and two Irish pubs)? Well, St. Patrick is not unlike St. Nicholas and St. Valentine, in that the marketplace has taken over. In the USA it is more a celebration of enjoying being Irish for a few hours, and the person is just a convenient excuse.

Since 1962 the Chicago River has been colored green on this day. It began as 100 pounds of fluorescent dye, but the Environmental Protection Agency forced the city to convert to 40 pounds of a safer concoction (the color is orange, but turns a vivid emerald in water) which is kept secret. The White House fountain today also sprays green, President Obama’s means of honoring his second city.
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The Dow Jones Industrials jumped again today, 179 to 7396. A stronger than anticipated housing report helped stimulate the surge. Oil edged up another $1.43/barrel to $48.78 and gold further fell $7/toz to $917.
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Tropical Cyclone Ken formed far northeast of New Zealand, and is moving away.
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WITCH MOUNTAIN AND SETI

The Race to Witch Mountain is #1 at the box office this week. Thirty-two years ago--can you believe it was that long--Steven Speilberg wrote and directed Close Encounters of the Third Kind. These films have entertainment value, for CETK made more than $300 million, but what is the reality of extraterrestrial intelligence (ET) or flying saucers?
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First how do Americans feel? Remember, 90% of us believe there is a God and the majority does not think it is responsible for global warming. There is a plethora of polls, but, in general, 60% feel there is ET life somewhere in the universe.
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Are there UFOs? Absolutely, for any flying object that cannot be identified is by definition a UFO. However, what about flying saucers piloted by some extraterrestrial? Anywhere from one third to one half of Americans think they are real. In comparison, one half to three fourths believe in angels, yes, the kind with feathered wings. Religion is important in the USA.
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Most scientists don’t want to even be associated with UFOs because the odds are far too low to warrant their attention, not to mention the potential of sullying their credibility. Consider this: light, which in one second can travel around our globe 7.5 times, takes 100,000 years just to get from one end of our little ole Milky Way galaxy to the other. Us, Homo sapiens, only appeared 100,000 years ago. Then, if you want to get to Andromeda, our closest galaxy (the latest guess is there are 500 billion galaxies up there), a spaceship traveling at the speed of light would take 2.2 million years. Plus, what form of energy will enable a craft to travel such distances? Sure, you read about wormholes and stuff like that, but, for now, it is best to be rational and consider becoming a nonbeliever of flying saucers.
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In Chapter 4 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, I relate my experiences in this field, starting with Project Cyclops, and also Orion, a short stint I had at NASA’s Ames Research Center. The question then was, are we the only planet in the universe? I interacted then with Barney Oliver, Jack Billingham and Carl Sagan, and actually proposed a project to detect earth-sized planets. The concept rested on the principle that for life to occur, there needs to be an atmosphere, and starlight (sunlight) causes population inversion (a condition which induces lasing), meaning that spikes of monochromatic light can be detected, both proving that a planet exists and providing the gas composition. I took cues from Charles Townes, who had just moved from MIT to Cal-Berkeley, and wrote on this subject in SCIENCE. NASA tossed my proposal aside and remarked that the Hubble Telescope would soon fly and will then accomplish this task. Well, earth-sized extrasolar planets are beyond the capability of Hubble.

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So, a little more than two years ago, the European Union launched CoRoT to find extrasolar planets similar in size to ours. The principle had to do with these planets transiting (moving across the star) and measuring any diminution of light. On March 6, NASA placed into space Kepler, at a cost of nearly $600 million, to do almost exactly the same thing.
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The key question I ask is, why do we need both? Secondly, as the atmospheric composition will not be determined through this copycat photometric technique, so the potential of life as we know it cannot be determined, for so much money, couldn’t we have somehow adjusted the mission to provide more useful answers?
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Okay, anyway, now we know that there are more than 300 planets out there somewhere. Currently, most "seen" (we have not actually seen them, we have mostly measured wobbles in stars, surmising that the movement must have been caused by a planet or more) have been Jupiter-sized or larger, but just the fact that there are other solar systems answers the original question: yes, there are a lot of planets around other stars.

Now that we have proven beyond doubt that there probably are billions of planets out there, with odds that, perhaps, some of them might have intelligent life billions of years more advanced (the Universe is just under 14 billion years old and our solar system is less than 5 billion years), let us get on to detect possible signals, as Jodie Foster did in CONTACT. Yes, I know that was a movie, but I am being expansive with flicks today.

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Oh, by the way, did you know that NASA was historically prohibited from doing research on SETI? Yes, there is a privately funded SETI Institute (the Paul Allen Telescope Array is one of their projects), but Congress did not allow the federal government to directly spend money on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. That is, until 2003, when congressional attitudes somewhat shifted, and NASA actually began to provide a few official bucks to this activity, but only a very few.

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In this time of economic turmoil, can funds be justified for SETI? If we can spend $600 million for Kepler when Europe already was doing that, will expend $8 billion for our next nuclear aircraft carrier (which is by any current war standards already obsolete), and provided $150 billion of bailout money to AIG, sure, a justifiable amount would be worth the investment, for, perhaps, streaming in from space could be the answer to world peace, cure for cancer, solution for global warming and resolution to our global financial crisis.

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Our civilization will survive recession, Peak Oil and Global Warming, as we did the Cold War. Can our next few billion years, though, be more progressive and successful than our past 100,000 years? I suggest that it would be well justified to seek the wisdom of far more advanced societies from our common universe. The worst case result would be no signal, but a lot of useful science, at a cost far less than the AIG bailout.

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Well, no pentapeat, as the Dow Jones Industrials slipped 7 to 7217. At one point it was 173 points higher. World markets all went up today. Crude oil increased $1.10 from last Friday, ending at $47.35/barrel. Gold went down $5/toz to $924.

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CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 30B)

The following continues the second part on China from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

The following table compares China with the U.S.:

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.................................................China....................United States

Age......................................A million years??........ About 200 years

Size...................................9.598 million sq km......9.826 million sq km

Population.............................1,322 million...................302 million

GDP......................................$8,182 billion...............$13,000 billion

GDP/Capita...............................$6,300...........................$44,000

Military Expenditures................$81 billion......................$528 billion

Military Expenditures

as %GDP...................................4.3%*............................4.1%

China and the U.S., thus, are about the same in land area, with China having one billion more people than the U.S. (* The 4.3% for Chinese Military Expenditures as % of GDP comes straight from the CIA report, but a simple calculation of the above results in a figure of less than 1%, and my analysis shown below, using higher amounts than officially reported, also ends up around 1%.)

Additionally:

........................................................China..............United States

Energy Consumption Ratio...................1..............................9

Tobacco Use.....................................36%.........................24%

Meat Consumption/Capita/Year.......104 pounds...........269 pounds

Paper Consumption/Capita/Year.......73 pounds............730 pounds

Water Use/Capita/Year................116,000 gallons....484,500 gallons

Vehicles/Capita..................................0.0016.....................0.774

The U.S. uses a lot more energy than China, but, because of the population disparity and the type of energy, Guardian Unlimited reported on June 19, 2007 that China had overtaken the U.S. as the world’s biggest carbon dioxide emitter. Also because of the population difference, China eats more meat (67 million tons versus 38 million tons), consumes more grain (380 million tons to 260 million tons) and uses more steel (258 million tons versus 104 million tons) than the U.S. The Chinese internet population grew by 53% from 2007 to 2008 to 210 million, and will surge past the U.S. this year. As the economy further improves and censorship is relaxed, the growth should be even more spectacular. Oh yes, China already has more cell phones (461 million to 219 million), television sets and refrigerators. With only 12 million cars, versus 140 million for the U.S., China has 90,000 traffic deaths each year, while we kill less than 50,000 on our roads. I’ve been there. I believe it. Ah, my day in Hangzhou could just as well have been my last on Planet Earth. See Chapter 6.

Where China is truly trouncing the U.S. is in trade. First, a possible surprise…Germany is the #1 exporter. By mid-2006, China had supplanted the U.S. for #2, with exports surging by 27% from the previous year. Germany should be overtaken by 2009. The trade deficit between China and the U.S. in 2006 was $232 billion. China did increase overall imports by 20% in 2006 to $792 billion. So what did the U.S. do? We went to the World Trade Organization and complained. Okay, there are some valid copyright and patent issues worthy of resolution, but, the overall attitude should be to take stock of our deficiencies and rectify them.

To no one’s shock, here is the reason why China is so successful: low cost. But, higher quality is also a key. China exported $14 billion worth of furniture in 2006, surpassing Italy for #1. A beautiful executive chair from Italy wholesales for $348 in America. The Chinese price is $56, for essentially the same chair. A 23 year old farmer, Zhu Kanglin of Anjin, in 1993, begged, borrowed and persevered a sum of $3000 to start a chair factory. Today, he has 1000 different office chair models…not chairs, models. His workers toil up to 10 hours per day through six days a week to make $185/month. The equivalent Italian worker makes $1000/month.

Three particularly amazing examples of growth can be mentioned:

o Shenzhen, on the China side, was a fishing village of 25,000 in 1979, a short metro train to Hong Kong. As an experiment in capitalism, but using Chinese socialism, this location that year was designated as an industrial and business center, growing by 2008 to 9 million people living in town, with an additional 9 million in the immediate urban area.

o In 2002, China decided to convert the seedy gambling town (the only site with Hong Kong horse racing where gambling is allowed in China, although various mainland cites are now beginning to be approved) of Macau to compete with Las Vegas. In 2006, revenues of close to $7 billion surpassed Las Vegas, shot passed $10 billion in 2007, and surged beyond the State of Nevada in 2008, with Wynn Macau, MGM Mirage, the second Sands (the Venetian, with the world’s biggest casino), second Mirage and two Shangri-La/Traders leading the way. The 1400 gambling tables of 2006 will increase to 4,000 by 2009. The ten year plan is such that by 2012, the gambling revenues of Macau could well double that of Las Vegas. Sheldon Adelson of the Sands is the new Stanley Ho, although his daughter, Pansy Ho Chiu-king, is in partnership with Mirage. Adelson, though, is now in the midst of bankrupty. All of which galvanized Las Vegas to commit $40 billion by 2012 to build more magnificent palaces for their losers to spend more, as Macau only attracted 27 million victims last year, while Sin City drew 39 million. The Chinese lose more elaborately and quickly in craps, roulette and baccarat, while Americans contribute more slowly with slot machines, poker and black jack.

o In 1985, the U.S. and China both conferred 70,000 bachelor degrees in engineering. In 2000, the U.S. number dropped to 53,000 and China’s increased to 220,000. Worse yet, if you toss in Japan and South Korea, the bachelors degrees in engineering go up to 380,000. Then in 2008 this difference increased. Not that engineering is necessarily crucial to the future of a nation, but this growing discrepancy most definitely is a warning signal.

The economy should be the fear, but the singular apprehension about China seems to be as a dangerous military threat. So let’s look at defense expenditures. The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation showed that the 2005 military budget for the United States was $419 billion, with Russia second at $65 billion and China third at $56 billion. The U.S. accounts for almost half the world military outlays, and alone exceeds the combined total of the next 42 highest spending countries. So the U.S. pays out seven and a half times more for the military than China, according to those figures, or 33 times more per capita.

It is said, though, that much of the China armed forces budget is hidden. In 2003, the published amount was $25 billion. The CIA said it could have been $65 billion, and, considering relative purchasing strength, perhaps as much as $114 billion. The U.S. Department of Defense, when reporting on their $419 billion budget for 2005, speculated that the Chinese actual amount was $90 billion. Even at that escalated level, the U.S. commits 4.6 times more than China on military expenditures. Thus, the U.S. spends 4.1% of our GDP on the military, while China’s percentage is 1.1%. Further, on a per capita basis, the U.S. sets aside $1638/person for defense, while China provides only $68/person. This is not the 33:1 ratio indicated in the previous paragraph, for the 24:1 figure uses data from a more suspicious source.

Worse yet, that U.S. budget above does not account for wars, nuclear weapons research and sundry other military-related items. For FY2008, President Bush has asked for $861 billion to cover the DOD, plus veterans’ affairs, homeland security and war costs. China announced its military budget for 2007 at $45 billion. Thus, on this basis, using official statistics, the U.S. spends nearly twenty times more than China for warfare. There must be a more effective way to wage peace than to ridiculously outspend your rivals.

So U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ questioning of Chinese officials on November 5, 2007, about why they are spending so much money on arms build-up could have had monumental impact if he had instead said, look, friends, the U.S. will reduce defense expenditures by $100 billion next year. You think you can cut yours by $10 billion? Now, that would be a Gorbachev-like one-upmanship that could have set the table for total disarmament in a decade. (My first Huffington Post article on May 29, 2008 treats this subject.)

China and the U.S. are both Republics. So is Iran. However, there are republics and there are republics. At least China appears to be on the road from dictatorship towards democracy.

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HOW GOOD A WORLD CITIZEN IS THE USA?

In a word: TERRIBLE! I was amused when I recently read that French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France will return to full membership of the North Atlantic Trade Organization (NATO). What, they have not been a full member? It turns out that in 1966, President Charles de Gaulle withdrew his country from the alliance’s command structure. So I wondered, what about the good ole U.S. of A?  Are there any similar surprises?

In my SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, I argued that the United States is the best country, ever. I still believe so, but I have to wonder why we have been such a BRat (Bully Rat) in a variety of universal world agreements. I can tell you at the outset: CONSERVATIVES have generally been the reason why. But let me be specific, although I have sometimes tended to side with them.

First, the Kyoto Protocol. 183 countries have ratified, and the U.S. remains the ONLY major nation in opposition. Enough said.

Of course, we many times do not sign on for “good reason.” Take global warming, for example, as it makes little sense to do so when China and India are pardoned. However, International Women’s Day was March 8, and I found it astounding that the global women’s rights treaty was completed 30 years ago, 170 countries have endorsed, but not the USA. Why? There is some fear of promoting prostitution and abortion. Would you guess that, as in global warming, hard core conservatives might be blamed? We are in abysmal company, for Sudan, Somalia, Qatar, and Iran have also refused to sign.

Senator Barbara Boxer (California-D), though, has taken on the challenge of gaining ratification. She has also added the United Nations measure to expand the rights of children, also on where we have been dragging our feet in fear of condoning youth soldiers, your child smoking marijuana, and the like. In case you missed the point, there is a sector of our society that believes parents should have the right to rear their own children, which, granted, makes some sense. This has been floating around for two decades, and was actually signed by President Bill Clinton, but not approved by the U.S. Senate. New UN Ambassador, Susan Rice, recently said this is a noble cause that is backed by the Obama Administration.

In case you were wondering, the President signs treaties, but requires Senate approval. The House does not get involved. Oh, by the way, Clinton also signed the Kyoto Protocol, but was not able to gain Senate support.

The Law of the Sea (LOST) Treaty is one where I have actually been a part of since my stint in the U.S. Senate three decades ago. While these LOST summits have been close to being the most boring of any possible human assemblages (although, maybe those UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission biennial gatherings exceed that mind-numbing quotient), you would think that something passed in 1982 to cooperate on ocean matters would be a slam dunk certainty. A combination of companies not wanting to share information to something to do with sovereign rights over the open ocean has served to scuttle our participation. Interestingly enough, President George Bush, the 43rd, actually backed this longstanding treaty. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, UN Ambassador Rice and Vice President Biden are in support, so surely it will be ratified this time, right? Well, stay tuned, for the military industrial complex suite of war partners remain adamant against this giveaway.

Okay, who can possibly be for land mines? Well, the USA. We have refused to join 150 nations that have ratified this treaty. This one is only a decade old, but the Pentagon is against it for signing it would compromise South Korea? Huh? There is also a cluster bomb ban that the U.S. and Russia stand opposed. Odds are that the Obama Administration will move on these, for they do have humanitarian and practical benefits.

The International Criminal Court was established in 2002 to investigate and prosecute genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. President Clinton signed, but did not even bother to submit it to the Senate for ratification. George Bush the Younger, then “unsigned” it in 2002 because it could bring politically-motivated prosecutions against U.S. citizens. It is possible that the U.S. Constitution would need to be amended to ratify, and there are more important measures to pass at this time, I guess.

There are a few more, but let me stop with the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty. Certainly we must be the good guys here. Nope. One hundred eighty one nations have signed on, but the U.S., China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran and North Korea have not approved the treaty. Russia is one of the 148 that signed and ratified.

Let me finally end this discussion with the UN Security Council and veto power. Without going into the details, the Soviet Union vetoed more than 100 resolutions. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 there were 23 vetoes, the U.S. with 15 and Russian with 6.

This is getting monotonous, so let me conclude with the simple statement that now you probably should have a better inkling as to why we have not been really popular around the world. Mind you, popularity is tertiary to being right and humane, but consider the above and let your wishes be known to our current leaders.
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To end the week, we have a fourpeat, as the Dow Jones Industrials went up 54 to 7224, hitting a low of 7106 at midday, but moving up 118 for the rest of the day. World markets mostly went up, with the Japan Nikkei jumping 5% to 7569. Crude oil edged down 52 cents to $46.25/barrel. OPEC meets this weekend. Gold increased $4 to $929/toz.

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CHAPTER 1, BOOK 2 (Part 30A)

The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. China will be covered in Parts 30A and 30B:

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Peace with the People’s Republic of China?

Dated stone tools indicate that China was inhabited by Homo erectus 1.36 million years ago. The use of fire might have been discovered here 1.27 million years ago. The story of Peking Man is an adventure that started in 1921 when Swedish archeologist Johann Gunnar Andersson and Austrian paleontologist Otto Zdansky found two teeth of an early man. American geologist William Grabau gave the teeth a name, Peking Man, although the scientific term was Homo erectus pekinensis, certainly not Homo sapiens. Later, in 1927, with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, a systematic excavation was initiated at Zhoukoudian (now a World Heritage Site), located about 50 km southwest of Peking, now Beijing. In 1929 an almost complete skull was found. French paleontologist Father Teilhard de Chardin participated in the analysis.

This unearthing went on into 1966 when Peking Man consisted of portions of at least 6 different skulls, and assorted other parts, although there is some intrigue dealing with the Japanese invasion of China and the possibility of the fossils being smuggled to the U.S. The early fossils remain missing today. Peking Man (more accurately, men and women) lived from about 500,000 years to 240,000 years ago. Thus, they lived in the same cave for more than a quarter million years, an incredible stability, for our species just appeared 100,000 years ago.

The history of China has been recorded over five millennia:

o It was only a couple of centuries before Jesus, though, that the country became unified, when Qin Shi Huang formed the first dynasty. While this reign only lasted for 12 years, the most famous of the Great Walls of China gained more prominence (actually, the building, in fits, began in the 5th century BC).

o The following Han Dynasty governed for 400 years, from two centuries before to two centuries after Jesus. The Silk Road to the West was established.

o Four centuries of disorder followed when in 589 the Sui Dynasty united the country, but was superseded by the Tang Dynasty in 618, ruling for almost three centuries until chaos took over for half a century.

o Then, the Song Dynasty, maintained control for three centuries, a time when science flourished and gunpowder was invented, about 1040.

o The Mongol Empire began to form around Genghis Khan from 1206, and his grandson, Kublai Khan established the Yuan Dynasty later in that century. The capital moved from Xian to Beijing, but in this interval the Chinese population dropped from 100 million to 60 million.

o These barbarians were then replaced by the Ming Dynasty in 1368 under Zhu Yuanzhang, a peasant. China during this period ruled the oceans with Zhang He, Forbidden City reached its grandeur and the Great Wall of China, a project that took 1000 years, was completed.

o Finally, after nearly three centuries of control, the Manchus invaded from the North, and the Quin Dynasty endured from 1644 to 1912 various internal wars and external influences. The Last Emperor, Henry Puyi was born in 1906, was not quite 3 when he was named emperor by Dowager Empress Cixi, but just at the age of 6 abdicated, officially ending the rule of the Dynasties. Puyi was restored as Emperor in 1917, but was almost instantly deposed, finally becoming Emperor of Manchukuo as a Japanese puppet, then at the end, a Chinese pawn of Chairman Mao.

There, in less than a page, is the entire history of China.

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The Dow Jones Industrials experienced a rare recent threepeat, jumping 340 to 7170. World markets also all increased. Crude oil shot up $4.16/barrel to $46.77, while gold rose $16/toz to $925. The DOW start point for tomorrow is currently down, but the futures for S&P and NASDAQ are up, if you're wondering what is to come on Friday. At mid-day on Friday, March 12 in the Orient, the Nikkei is experiencing a huge day, and at this point is up what the DOW was for all of Thursday. The interesting thing about this Japanese market is that it has generally mimicked the Dow Jones Industrials, with very similar values, now just above 7500. Could the DJI tomorrow.... Well, the similarity is generally Japan following the USA.

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IS PORK GOOD FOR YOU?

Well, it is a lean meat, relatively inexpensive, and if well-cooked, there is no problem with trichinosis, which still inflicts perhaps ten per year in the USA. But if you’re in Thailand around their new year (April 13-15), watch out for “larb,” for it is a local delicacy that uses undercooked pork and annually infects 500 during this period.

But the pork I’m talking about has to do with congressional earmarks. Interesting that Wikipedia has entries for Earmark (Politics), which presents the concept as almost acceptable and historic, but another one on Pork Barrel, as derogatory. It is the same thing. There is even one on Porkbusters, focusing on conservatives and libertarians (also mostly known as Republicans) who hate it as much as increased taxes. Of course, most congress people are not dumb enough to totally ignore this largesse and time-honored tradition to improve your odds for getting re-elected. There are noisy stalwarts such as House Minority Leader John Boehner, Senator John McCain and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who while claiming that the Obama administration is:

"recommending that we continue the spending binge,"

himself added 36 earmarks to the bill totaling about $51.2 million. It seems that only 40% of pork funds go to Republicans, but that is because this party represents about 40% of members in the House and Senate.

Pork barrel politics have been with us since the beginning of our nation and are also common around the world, known as patronage in some countries, and goulash, guess where (Czech Republic). Citizens Against Waste classifies pork as unauthorized, non-competitive, secretly processed and beyond the official request of the President. They publish a yearly Pig Book. Congress generally argues it is not a mere rubber stamp, and also has a responsibility to focus on priority spending opportunities.

Every year there are calls against earmarks, and this effort will necessarily be annual because Congress will never give up this task. President Obama has called for reform, and he TODAY announced what this might be: while he never said pork is good, he indicated that these add-ons should be clear as to sponsor, must undergo hearings and should focus on national priorities.

Senator Robert Byrd (West Virginia-D) was the king of pork, until he was this year replaced by Senator Daniel Inouye (Hawaii-D) as chairman of the Appropriations Committee. There are many in Hawaii hoping that he becomes the new king. Former senator Ted Stevens (Alaska-R) was famous for his appropriations. You remember the bridge to nowhere? Defense, where most of the money is located, was his specialty. He is now a private citizen, unless convicted and sent to jail. Wait, a minute, he was convicted on all seven counts, but, somehow, remains a free man.

About this $410 billion budget bill that President Obama is set to sign, government spending is increased by 8%, but EARMARKS, so ballyhooed as a national disgrace, only represent 2% the total. Thus, as Hawaii is one half of one percent the national population, our fair share should have been $410 million. We appear to only be getting $372 million, so, I guess, Senator Inouye is being circumspect.

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The Dow Jones Industrials went up today, but only 4 points to 6930. World markets were mixed. Crude oil sunk $3.21/barrel to $42.61. Gold increased $13/toz to $909.

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Tropical Storm Joni at 65 MPH is loitering northeast of New Zealand and moving south, but not threatening any populated locale.

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CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 29)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

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What About Russia?

Founded in the 12th century, it was conquered by the Mongols in the 13th century and did not really emerge until after the 15th century. By the 17th century, the Romanov Dynasty expanded the country to Siberia and the Pacific, then, under Peter I, to the Baltic Sea, for the first time naming the country the Russian Empire.

The communists led by Vladimir Lenin gained control in 1917, calling it the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic. Under a quarter century of rule by Josef Stalin until 1953, the USSR became a serious challenger to the United States.

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Mikhail Gorbachev, General Secretary from 1985 to 1991, introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) to modernize the country, leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and ending the Cold War, breaking apart the union into 15 countries. On his 75th birthday, Gorbachev was quoted to say that “despite the great opportunity that the end of the cold war presented to the U.S. to build a safer and more stable world, it only strengthened America’s arrogance and unilateralism.” Current Russian President Vladimir Putin also blames the U.S. for militarism and global instability, while he clamps down on internal dissent and takes over fossil fuel operations. Putin wants his country to become the next Saudi Arabia, at least for natural gas.

A comparative U.S.-Russian tally shows the following:

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........................................................Russia..........................United States

Age.............................................Almost 1000 years.....About 200 years

Size.............................................17 million sq km.........10 million sq km

Population......................................141 million..................302 million

GDP.............................................$1,746 billion.............$13,000 billion

GDP/Capita....................................$12,200.....................$44,000

Military Expenditures......................Not Available..............$528 billion

Military Expenditures

as %GDP......................................Not Available.................4.1%

Thus, Russia has less than half the population of the U.S., but is almost twice as large in area. Our Gross Domestic Product is seven and a half times larger than that of Russia.

The clue to world peace forever could well have been influenced by one crucial series of understandings between the Soviet Union and the U.S. When Gorbachev and Reagan agreed to disarmament, humanity overcame our greatest threshold of madness: mutually assured destruction.

Russia today plays the field, and, you might say, is enterprising. An Israeli satellite launched by Russia in 2006 now allows the gathering of data, with 27.5 inch resolution, on Iran’s military assemblage. Russia happens to be building Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant at a cost of $800 million. Also, too, Russia is more and more keeping bad company, Iran and North Korea being prime examples. With China, the growling Bear has more and more again tended to confront the U.S. on international politics.

Perhaps most worrisome, Putin’s recent moves have reasserted dominance of the Kremlin, while limiting media and judiciary independence. In September of 2007, Putin flew close to NATO airspace his antique Tu-95 strategic bombers, which where escorted back by British and Norwegian fighter planes. He also announced a $200 billion rearmament plan to modernize his military. The U.K. has called to task Russia’s violations of human and democratic rights. Yet, it’s gratifying to note that on being awarded the 2014 Winter Olympics, Dmitry Chernyshenko called the victory a “key moment in Russian history…The games will help Russia’s transition as a young democracy.”

The next war for resources could well be Russia versus Canada and Denmark, with the U.S. serving as an associate to the new enemy coalition. On August 3, 2007, a Russian scientific crew planted a flag (actually, dropped a titanium capsule containing the flag) on the ocean floor under the North Pole, leading President Putin to claim the rights to the half million square mile seabed for oil and gas. Canada, in an earlier response ordered several billion dollars worth of military equipment and facilities to assert their claim on the same territory, and Denmark, teaming with Canada, contends that the North Pole is merely an extension of Greenland, which they own. The United Nations, actually, in 2001, had already rejected Moscow’s claim to that seabed. For the record, the U.S., Canada and Norway already have claims on that space, too.

Why the ruckus? There is speculation that the bottom of the ocean over the North Pole has as much untapped oil and gas as Saudi Arabia. For the record, too, Vladimir Gruzdev and Artur Chilingarov saw yellowish gravel, but no creatures of the deep, at the bottom. The Antarctic is a continent. The Arctic just floats over water.
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The U.S. Senate passed the $410 billion spending bill, Madoff plead guilty to 11 counts and the Dow Jones Industrials shot up 379 to 6926. What a day! World markets also all jumped, with many countries up about the same as the U.S. (+5.8%). Crude oil stayed relatively steady at $45.80/barrel. Gold dropped $24/toz to below $900, ending at $897. You might recall that it was only last week when prices beyond $1000/toz were being predicted in the near future. Is it conceivable that March 10 will be considered to be the day that ended the Great Recession?

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All Indian Ocean cyclones have largely dissipated.

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PUT IN MY BACKYARD (PIMBY)

All things concerned, most wouldn't mind paying a little bit more for electricity or automotive fuels from renewable energy. In fact, if Congress were to enact the Markey-Platts bill (H.R. 890) for a national renewable energy standard, consumers would save as much as $94 billion on their electricity and natural gas bills by 2030, so sacrifice might not even be necessary.

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However, there is a problem. The Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) syndrome, in combination with oil remaining below $50/barrel and financing uncertainties posed by the economic collapse, is effectively dampening enthusiasm for sustainable resource development.

Historically, I've been in the midst of community backlash regarding renewable energy on practically everything we tried. In the 1970's, a combination of people who moved into the Puna Region (who wanted to preserve their "new" natural lifestyle), environmentalists decrying damage to the nearby rainforests, native Hawaiians concerned about geothermal power interfering with their worship of Pele (goddess of volcanoes) and marijuana growers, convinced Federal Judge David Ezra to effectively limit geothermal development. A third of a century later, Ezra is still judge, and the Big Island now only produces about 5% of the 500 MW that was envisioned. A $25 million deepsea cable project produced by Pirelli of Italy to bring this electricity to Oahu was gathering dust for a quarter century, but, who knows, might now serve as a starting point for the Lanai/Molokai wind farms.

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A similar difficulty was experienced in 1987 when Hawaiian Electric and Boeing attempted to experiment on a massive 3.2 megawatt wind energy conversion system (tip-to-tip, the propeller was longer than a football field--this is now the size of choice for recent wind energy farms) in the Kahuku Hills above Turtle Bay. There was an outcry from the resort developer (worried that such a device would give the impression that this was a windy area--which it was at higher elevation), the Audobon Society (bird kills) and some homeowners (aesthetic blight, they called it). Somehow, the wind mill did get built, but it was a technological disaster, for any early generation energy system is almost destined to fail. The swooshing noise was intimidating and the gearing/materials partially failed.

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Turned out that almost all the solar energy projects we had at the university were unsuccessful, but this is why government invests in these efforts, for we are not smart enough to make the first, or the second, one work at this size and complexity. Your iPod or portable computer operates well because it went through a thousand generations in the company laboratory. Hawaii was the international laboratory for renewable energy, and we served the necessary white rat role. Our then experience with ignominy helped the field develop. Today, decades later, wind power is the ONLY renewable energy technology competitive with coal and nuclear for electricity.

The Advertiser yesterday provided a largely negative front page article on a 1100 MW offshore wind/wave power project that has been proposed by Grays Harbor Ocean Energy Company. Already, the Molokaians, fishermen, whale people, HECO (yes, they will say they will not be able to handle so much power) and their like will effectively shoo away the wind developer. Guaranteed! But, then, maybe this company just added Hawaii as an afterthought for a couple of vacation trips, for they haven't bothered to meet with anyone of importance. Doug Carlson provides a reasonable response in his daily blog.

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As naive and/or dumb GHOEC might be, I still wonder why the leadership of Hawaii doesn't lay protocol aside and embrace these types of opportunity with a "let's see how this can work attitude." Sure, in this instance energy storage will be needed, and this is expensive, but what about, maybe, hydrogen production and retention in sea bladders for application as fuel for Rinaldo's Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, or to double the production of methanol from the gasification/catalysis of biomass? We should be matching monumental efforts to produce a network of inter-dependent endeavors to attain critical mass progress.

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Otherwise, is there a solution to NIMBY? Yes, when oil goes shooting past $150/barrel everyone will suddenly become advocates. But isn't that too late?

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The other option is PIMBY, Put In My Back Yard, offered by Leighton Chong in his blog. Click on that link to read about his proposal.

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The Dow Jones Industrials settled minus 80 to 6547. Thank heavens, no Black Monday. World markets were mixed. Oil is now at $45.80/bbl. T. Boone Pickens reported that in February, we imported 62 percent of our oil - about 339 million barrels, costing us $13 billion or more than $328,000 per minute! At the current price of oil, we will spend $170 billion to import oil this year. If the average price of crude were $147/barrel, it would be $652 billion. But, as in December we imported 66.5 percent of our oil, is this progress? Not really, for in January it was 67.4 percent, and who knows what it will be by mid-year. Taking a cue from my Do It Now tirade, the intrepid Democrats in Congress, with the cheerleading efforts of the Obama White House, might be attempting a renewable energy and climate change coup in one magnificent step, as much as I don't like "cap and trade," and would rather they merely add a $1/gallon investment surcharge, plus a mere one cent/pound carbon dioxide tax when oil is $30/barrel (which would be 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide for $150/barrel crude). If they don't do this now, it will never happen.
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The South Indian Sea is heating up. Cyclone Hamish is now a Category 3 storm in the vicinity of Brisbane, but will weaken and head away from land. Tropical Cyclone 19 has popped up and is nowhere (86 degrees East/18 degrees South) heading northwest at this time.

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