ENERGY 2100

Thirty-six years ago, Jim Dator and I co-hosted a NASA-sponsored summer faculty workshop and public lecture series on EARTH 2020. One of our students, Phil Bossert, was then a young philosophy professor, who went on to become a university president and high tech specialist. Society in the 70’s was challenged by Limits to Growth, the Population Bomb, the Vietnam War, Acid Rain, and energy crises. Actually, that first energy crisis occurred just after we concluded the course.

A few of you, however, tell me that it is different this time. The matter of actually reaching a limit to cost-effective oil will forever change, in fact, significantly lower, our lifestyle. But for the more hopeful, until, of course, controlled fusion is attained.

Well, over the past few months we have exchanged at least a hundred e-mails, and most of you have seen, at most, half, for, in addition to Peak Oil and Global Warming, there were tangential pathways on transitional living as a survival option, the direct methanol fuel cell, the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, “is there a flaw in the hydrogen economy?”, variations on biofuels from algae, the Blue Revolution and more. All those views inspired me to synthesize some of your contributions into ENERGY 2100:

The global economy will recover from the collapse. Hawaii’s tourism rate will begin to improve by the end of the year, so nothing dramatic will occur to diversify our economy. The healing process could take three years to reach a semblance of normalcy.

In the Year 2012 (the world could come to an end that year in THE VENUS SYNDROME: The Novel, but there is no reason to believe we will be right) oil prices will reach $150/barrel, for it will now be Peaked Oil. Global warming will be proven to be real, so a carbon tax of 1 cent per pound carbon dioxide will be agreed to by the G8 nations when they meet in the U.S. that year, bringing solar photovoltaics and solar thermal electricity into the mix with wind energy. The U.S. Congress will pass a $1/gallon gasoline investment surcharge, still keeping our prices a couple of dollars/gallon lower than Europe. The tourism rate to Hawaii will drop by 50% and the State will go into depression. A serious nuclear powerplant accident or terroristic act will occur, killing tens of thousands, thus eliminating fission power as a replacement option.

By 2020, non-hydro renewables will only be supplying 10% of the electricity in the world. Hybrid (battery/fuel cell) and plug-in electric vehicles will now begin to replace the internal combustion engine. The direct methanol fuel cell will be developed and the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper will fly. However, renewable aircraft fuels will remain non-competitive because of high production costs. While nothing will have seemingly changed in the energy balance, the reality is that renewables will be producing 20 times more electricity than today. It just takes time to get there.

The frightening thing about the above is that this is an optimistic projection. It is appearing that there is nothing Hawaii can do to avoid this scenario. A couple of hundred megawatts of wind power could be in place, and, even, a 100 MW OTEC plantship. Geothermal could reach 100 MW, so it is possible that we will be producing more renewable electricity, percentage-wise, than the world. Likewise, there should also be more hybrids and plug-ins in Hawaii than elsewhere, but the key factor is that our local economy will still be dependent on tourism.

ENERGY 2100, however, should be Hawaii as Paradise. We will be totally energy self-sufficient, and, perhaps, even exporting hydrogen. Some form of hydrogen jetliner or dirigible will be the mode of air travel. The Blue Revolution will mean that half of our visitors will be housed on floating casinos and marine-eco-tourist facilities, all powered by OTEC. We could be exporting seafood through next generation fisheries and producing biofuels from marine biomass plantations, where the production facilities will be located beyond view from land. One of the larger platforms will be communicating with the United Nations about becoming a new nation. These floating plantships will begin to gain carbon credits and environmental revenues for remediating global warming and minimizing the formation of hurricanes. Fusion will just have been commercialized, so the world will also begin a new recovery process.

It is clear, then, what we should begin to do now to accelerate the process so that Hawaii ENERGY 2100 could be Hawaii ENERGY 2050, or sooner. SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth provides the guidelines for this preferred future.

-

THE END OF WARS (Part 22)

The following is largely excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

Then there is Iran

The Islamic Republic of Iran, meaning “Land of the Aryans (Indo-European),” known as Persia until 1935, has a population in the range of 65 million to 70 million, and is a bit smaller than Alaska in area. Iran is a puzzlement. Various scenarios have cast this country as being THE Middle East by 2050, first, because it has that intention, and two, because of its central location. Its neighbors are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey and Iraq. Across the Persian Gulf you will find Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. From the 9th to 11th century, Persia was the heart and mind of the Islamic Golden Age. The current goal is to seek nothing less.

In 1921, Reza Shah Pahlavi gained control of the country, but was forced to abdicate by the British and USSR in 1941 in favor of his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was more malleable...to the Western World. After WW II, in 1953, Mohammed Mossadegh won a democratic election and forced Pahlavi to leave the country. However, Operation Ajax, a British Intelligence Service led, CIA cooperated, venture, overthrew Mossadegh (who had his own ideas on how to proceed), and the Shah returned later that year.

-

Twenty-six years henceforth, in 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini led the Iranian Revolution, and the Shah again fled the country. This is when the American hostage incident took place, and lingered for 444 days. In 1980, with favorable signals from Uncle Sam, Iraq invaded Iran, initiating a war which lasted eight years and killed up to a million Iranians. It is reported that the Americans provided chemicals for weapons of mass destruction, providing a historical footnote on why there was so much certainty about Saddam still having them.

-

Is there any wonder about why the U.S. is mistrusted in the Middle East? Overthrowing a democracy and supplying materials for weapons of mass destruction? Us, the freedom fighters? I guess so.

The Supreme Religious Leader is Ali Khamenei and the President, the secular leader, is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Who is in charge? Well, there are a lot more portraits of Khamenei throughout the nation, plus, he has definite seniority.

In comparison with the U.S.:

......................Iran..........................United States

Age.............9000 years..................About 200 years

Size.............1.648 million sq km..9.826 million sq km

Population..69 million....................302 million

GDP...........$562 billion.................$13,000 billion

GDP/Cap...$8,300........................$44,000

Military

Exp...........$4.3 billion....................$528 billion

Mil. Exp.

%GDP......3.3%.............................4.1%

We spend 100 times more than Iran on our military, so why is that country a concern? From all reports, there is now a new developing axis of evil: Iran, Pakistan, and Russia. Russia is in it for oil and has the technology to share. There are some disturbing rumors about Cuba and Venezuela being courted. Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine are being funded by Iran. Then there is that nuclear issue that comes, goes, returns and continues to irritate the free world, even if we have ours and they don’t. Thus, from a "Free" World perspective, Iran is today the most prominent catalyst for evil.

What nurtures the influence of Iran are oil (second largest OPEC producer) and natural gas (second to Russia in terms of reserves). But there is a limit of how long these fossil fuels will produce, making a nuclear future understandable. One would hope, of course, that solar energy could, instead, dominate. This almost never comes up for discussion in our talks with Iran.

The notion of the entire Middle East becoming the Iranian Empire is not far-fetched. The lightening rod for unity is Israel. Everyone else in the region is an enemy of this “American satellite.” Ironically, the U.S. eliminated the Iranians two worst enemies, the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. President Ahmadinejad has unwisely and royally ticked off Israel with statements like calling the Nazi Holocaust a myth and boasting of the need to wipe Israel off the map. One more provocation and a surgically precise bombing of potential nuclear or rocket launching sites by the Israeli Air Force could serve as a useful warning shot, except the latest intelligence is that they don’t really exist, yet.

On the peace front, though, on May 8, 2006, President Ahmadinejad sent an 18-page letter to President George W. Bush, the first such communication between Iranian and American heads since 1980. While the letter was generally courteous, it criticized Bush for attacking Afghanistan and Iraq, supporting Israel and other nit-picking subjects, and wondered how Jesus and his prophets would have judged these acts. Ahmadinejad simply asked Bush to justify his Middle East policies and those of his predecessors.

This would have been a golden opportunity to first question Iran’s sense of equity and freedom, but, then, state the obvious validations and propose a sincere dialogue on various important issues. As far as I know, Bush’s only response was at a press conference with Tony Blair later that month, indicating that he had read the letter but expressed distaste that the nuclear matter was not addressed. Unfortunately, but not unsurprisingly, there came no official response, further reinforcing the common belief that the U.S. blatantly ignores the concerns of the Middle East. A telling comment came from think tank Chatham House: “While the U.S. has been playing poker in the region, Iran has been playing chess.” Barack Obama has indicated an intent to communicate.

Finally, further embarrassing our intelligence experts, late in 2007 it was determined that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program four years earlier. I guess the pressure is now off, for now. Well, then, again, maybe not.

-

After dropping 200 points, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered to only a minus 45 at 8078. World markets mostly dropped, although Belgium, again, was one of the very few exceptions. Crude oil rose almost 3 bucks, and is now at $45.88/barrel. Gold jumped $43/toz to $898.

-

NAMING OF OCEAN STORMS IS ALMOST PERPLEXING. Most of the systems are alphabetical, but some are not.

-

On Sunday, Tropical Storm / Cyclone (maximum velocity of about 70 miles per hour) Eric hit the east coast of Madagascar, causing one death, and on Wednesday, Cyclone Fanale (which means this is the 6th storm of the year) at 130 miles per hour struck the west coast of Madagascar, killing 9. Seventy percent of the population live on less than a dollar a day, and for a variety of reasons, I have been told not to go there. Here are two more. La Reunion Island is located about 500 miles east of Madagascar and Mauritius is another 120 miles northeast of La Reunion. These countries are covered in Chapter 6 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. The Indian Ocean is particularly warmer this season, so many more of these disturbances are expected. Australia has gone through Anika, Billy and Charlotte this season.

-

The hurricane season for the U.S. begins on June 1. The first tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Ana, then Bill, followed by Claudette. In the Eastern Pacific it will be Andres, Blanca and Carlos. Names of typhoons in the West Pacific originate out of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and depend on where they form, for 13 countries participate in the naming. There seems to be some consensus, though, that the first one will be named Kujira. The Philippines, though, has it's own system, and uses an alphabetical order, with the first for 2009 to be called Auring. Thus, you'll note that many typhoons might have two names. Conversely, there is no system for the south Atlantic. The most recent, in 2004, was named Catarina because it made landfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil.

-

THE STOCK MARKET (Part 2)

In Part 1 a whole bunch of large numbers were mentioned. Before we analyze what they mean, maybe we need some definitions:

Derivatives: a generic term for a variety of financial mechanisms involving a promise to convey ownership of an asset, rather than the asset itself. Futures and options are two common derivatives. Warren Buffet called derivatives financial weapons of mass destruction. The Brookings Institution reported on “The Dangers of Derivatives.”

Hedge Funds: a private investment fund, while regulated, allows a wider range of activities, providing the investment manager a performance fee. Think Bernard Madoff.

TARP: troubled assets relief program, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, providing $700 billion to the Department of Treasury. Now that the second $350 billion has been approved by Congress, we are on to the 2009 version, whatever it will be called, said to be worth $825 billion, $550 billion for emergency spending and $275 billion in temporary tax benefits over the next two years.

During this time of fickle oil prices and a volatile stock market, it seems appropriate to talk about major crashes, which in the past were triggered by bank failures and gold standard adjustments, and more recently further influenced by the price of oil. In October 29, there was Black Thursday (24), Black Monday (28) and Black Tuesday (29). On 8July1932 the Dow plunged to 41.22, erasing 36 years of gains, and would take 22 years to surpass its previous high.

The DJI reached 1000 in 1972 but in the 694 days between 11January73 and 6December74, the DJI fell 45%, slightly more than the world average, with the London stock exchange dropping 73% of value. In 1987 the DJI passed 2000 and for no discernable reason (thus, it was called the Black Swan event), another Black Monday occurred on 19October87 when the DJI fell 22.6%.

The DJI reached 3000 in 1991, 6000 in 1996, 8000 in 1997 (thus we are back to where we were a dozen years ago), 10,000 in 1999, 12,000 in 2006 and hit 14,165 on October 9, 2007. Thus, over the past 16 months, the DJI has dropped about 44%.

Some have predicted that we are only in the beginning of the ultimate depression, which in minimal fashion occurred as recently as the 1990’s with the breakup of the Soviet Union, where their Gross Domestic Product declined by 45% and poverty in the region increased ten-fold. These so-called doomsdayers are preparing for much more severe lifestyle adjustments with the end of cheap oil, influencing some to begin the process of converting to transitional living based on group sustainability with protective defense capabilities. But, certainly, this group represents a minority viewpoint. But could they be right?

-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped almost 300 points, but recovered to only minus 105 to 8123. World markets mostly dropped. Crude oil slipped about a buck to $43.04/barrel. Gold rose $3.20/toz to $856.40.

-

THE STOCK MARKET (Part 1)

Let’s start with a small number: $11 trillion. This is what the U.S. debt is soon to hit, meaning that each of us owes somebody $35,000. But who holds those debts? Well, to begin with, the U.S. government owes a little more than half, their investment from our Social Security, Medicare and other accounts. Thus, you can say that we owe most of the debt to ourselves. About 25% is owned by foreign governments, with Japan as #1, China #2, United Kingdom #3 and oil exporting countries #4 (this last chunk only amounts to a bit more than a tenth of a trillion). The rest of our debt holders include state and local governments, individual investors, pension funds, banks and credit unions (this small change of $120 billion is slightly more than that held by those oil exporters), and so on. So should we fear China posturing for favorable policies in exchange for leaving their money in this pot? Probably not.

On to bigger stuff, the world stock market capitalization (share price times number of shares) stood as follows:

• End of 1997.....$22 trillion
  
• End of 2007....$63 trillion
  
• 22Jan2008......$50 trillion (?)

Wikipedia, though, reports that the world stock market had a value of $36.6 trillion at the beginning of October 2008, so there is some discrepancy here. Supposedly, stocks lost $1.2 trillion in value on September 29, 2008 when the Dow Jones Industrials skidded 778 points, translating the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 to a worth of around $12 trillion today when the DJI rested just above 8000. But this is just the USA.

In any case, the derivatives market is said to be close to $500 trillion. Well, maybe even that’s limiting, for the Bank for International Settlements reports a number exceeding a quadrillion dollars, or $1,144 trillion, when you include over the counter derivatives. This is $170,000 for each living person on this planet. The current global Gross Domestic Product, in comparison, is $57 trillion, or $8,700 per person. What do all these numbers mean? (To be continued tomorrow.)

-

The Dow Jones Industrials experienced a big rally today, up 279 (3.5%) to 8228. World markets were mixed, but mostly down. Crude oil almost jumped $4/barrel to $44.28 (NYMEX). The Dated Brent Spot was at $44.40/bbl. Why this increase when traders are expecting a swelling of crude inventories in the soon to be released government report? Most probably, the rebound in the stock market provided sufficient impetus for the day.

-

THE END OF WARS (Part 21)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

-

About Iraq

Where was the Garden of Eden? The Tower of Babel? Mesopotamia? The Cradle of Civilization? Daniel’s lion den? Babylon? Where did Noah build his Ark? From where did come the Three Wise Men? Why, of course, Iraq, home to the first civilizations!

However, it was not until 1919 that Iraq became an official Middle East country. After the first world war, the League of Nations made Iraq a British mandate, but independence was granted in 1932. After WW II, there was a monarchy, then a coup d’etat, a couple of overthrows and, finally, the ascendance of Saddam Hussein in 1979. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980’s had, officially, half a million deaths, but other estimates at least double that total. The first Gulf War (Iraq-Kuwait)of 1990 had a reported kill total of close to 150,000, including civilians, with only 148 American battle casualties. The America-Iraq war of the 21st century will have up to 1.5 million violent deaths, with a bit more than 4,000 being American casualties.

Comparing the two countries (all these tables come from the CIA World Factbook):

........................Iraq...................... United States

Age...............7000 years...............About 200 years

Size.........0.437 million sq km......9.826 million sq km

Population.....27.5 million................302 million

GDP...............$88 billion...............$13,000 billion

GDP/Capita...$2,900.....................$44,000

Military Exp..$7.6 billion...............$528 billion

As %GDP........8.6%..........................4.1%

Is Iraq to become our next Vietnam? Yes and no. 2007 turned out to be the year with our highest deaths in Iraq. Amazingly enough, 2007 was also the year we also experienced our highest casualties in Afghanistan after that 2001 invasion year. Yet, by the time we leave Iraq in what could still be in ignominy, our military deaths will only be around 5% that of the Southeast Asian conflict known as Vietnam, which resulted in around 80,000 American deaths. Mind you, an estimated 5 million died in that war, including enemy and civilians. The guerillas of VN attacked at their advantage, not unlike the terrorist bombers of Iraq.

The enemy in the 70’s had open access to China and, even, Russia. Today, it is Iran and every other Arabic country. Not quite as intimidating this time. But oil, I guess, suffices.

The purpose of VN was to check the spread of communism, while in Iraq we are there to spread democracy. You might say, this is almost the same thing. We lost the VN war because of television. We just didn’t have the heart to continue the embarrassment and tragedy unfolding while we had dinner. The exact same thing is happening this time, although the American public seems satisfied with Republican-Democratic politics taking the place of anguished public protests. So, yes, it’s the same, but no because this new one is an almost trivial affair with no world power points at stake.

But you’ve heard too much already about weapons of mass destruction, or the lack of them; the high cost of this war; and the quagmire it has become. Read about this war in another book.

In any case, at least we have a stooge in place to represent sane democratic policy and righteousness in the Middle East. Well, maybe no. On May 27, 2006, not very long after establishing their government, Iraq Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, and his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, all smiles, faced the public in Baghdad, and reiterated friendship with each other. Zebari went on to say that Iraq supports Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy, a position at complete odds with the U.S. view. Now, surely, there were the appropriate diplomatic checks and there was some sort of blessing ceremony in White House ranks for Iraq to appear to be one of the Muslim gang. If nothing else, this reverse negative psychology should serve a useful purpose of confusing the enemy. On the other hand, one has to wonder.

In 2007, Baghdad awarded more than a billion dollars in contracts to Iranian and Chinese companies to build electrical powerplants. Part of the deal was that Iran would also provide cheaper electricity to the grid. There was no backlash from the U.S., for, the thinking might have been that we need to have a greater part of the world participate in the restoration of Iraq. Maybe we have learned a lesson. Then again, maybe we are losing influence already.

One final issue about these minor wars. Yes, there is the matter of cost and casualties. The 4,000+ deaths and 30,000 injuries are two things. However, there is more. It is reported that in the 12 month period from 2006 to 2007, 70% of Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans sought treatment for post-traumatic stress. LET ME REPEAT: 70%!!! Scarily, there should have been even more, as this percentage does not include those treated at storefront Vet Centers operated by department stores, nor, of course, those who value their future career (either in the military or later in life) and choose not seek aid. Compound this matter with the affect on families and communities and you get a closer appreciation about the wickedness of even a minor war.

Then we attempted a last gasp surge, which was somewhat puny, but, apparently, worked. In August of 2007, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to expand presence in Iraq, that is, serve as the transition government after the U.S. and U.K. move out. Call it peace keeping if you wish, at least there is an international organization capable of providing a solution.

-
Oh, my gosh....the Dow Jones Industrial crashed 332 to under 8000, ending at 7949 today on the inaugural of our great gray hope, Barack Obama. Normally, on this day of a new president, stocks only drop 1%. Our stock market sunk 4% today. Well, the all world markets also declined. It could be a long winter, spring, summer, fall, winter....
-
Well, crude jumped today towards the direction of the Dated Brent Spot. The NYMEX Crude Futures ended at $40.33/barrel, narrowing the gap of the Dated Brent Spot at $41.89. Remember, the diffential was more than$8/barrel yesterday. Mind you, this is a NYMEX leap of $6.33/barrel, an increase of almost 20%, so what in the world is happening to the price of oil? Stay tuned. The Fall metastability of the stock market is now hitting the oil market. This can only be very dangerous to the world economy.
-

END OF WARS (Part 20)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

-

For completeness, the following terrorist organization can also be mentioned:

○ Japanese Red Army: formed in 1970, they were known to operate in Israel and the U.S., and are dedicated to fomenting world revolution. There are only six hard-core members. Their leader, Fusako Shigenobu, co-founder, was captured in 2000.

○ Earth Liberation Front: is the collective name for individuals and small groups in the U.S. and U.K. dedicated to ecotage: damaging property to save the environment. Originally founded in 1992 in the U.K., by 2001, the FBI classified ELF as the top domestic terror threat in the U.S. An earlier ELF, the Environmental Life Force, had similar strategies. However, today, the current ELF web site merely states that this underground movement has no leadership, membership nor official spokesperson. Participation is anonymous. There is no known leader, because, if known, would be arrested, convicted and placed in jail.

○ United States and Australia: labeled by some, if not many, as eco-terrorists for not signing the Kyoto Protocol (global climate warming). Kevin Rudd replaced John Howard as Prime Minister of Australia, and was reported to be more supportive of the agreement, but the day following the Bali talks at the end of 2007, appeared to be unhappy with such deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
-

The Dow Jones Industrials enjoyed a holiday today, but world markets all dropped.

-

There has been a significant difference between the New York Mercantile (NYMEX) Future and Dated Brent Spot (DBS) price of oil recently. Today, for example, the NYMEX was reported to be $34.00/barrel, while the DBS indicated $42.91/bbl. You can click on the Energy Information Agency definition to gain a sense what they are. In short, the NYMEX is a future price while the Brent is closer to being the curent price. There are 161 different crude oil prices generally reported. The NYMEX is the version usually mentioned in newspapers.

-

DO IT NOW

I thought my posting of this past Wednesday was too gloomy, so I made a few adjustments and re-titled it for The Huffington Post, as follows:

-

The signs are dismal. Yes, the economy, but worse regarding the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming. First, oil will apparently remain under $60/barrel for several years. Peaking at $147/barrel just this past July, Goldman Sachs expects oil to drop to $30/bbl this quarter. I must warn you that they did predict crude would rise to $149 by the end of last year, missing by about $100/bbl. But our U.S. Department of Energy predicted that oil prices would average $43.25/barrel this year (it was $99.55/bbl last year), and further, projected that the price will be $54.50/bbl next year. That agency has historically missed the mark with uncommon regularity. What if, though, GS and the USDOE are right this time? On top of all this, Secretary Designate Steven Chu, at his confirmation hearing, was picked up supporting coal and nuclear power. Yes, he had to balance his views for the Republicans, but the media emphasized that pro coal-nuclear point.

Second, millions probably won't perish from a terribly hot summer anytime soon. Well, that's good, but the problem compounding all this is a lot of misinformation being reported, including reports that the planet has cooled since George Bush has been President. The media likes to play with these stories, confusing the masses on something that still results in really cold winters and sea level rise that cannot be appreciated, especially if you happen to live in Kansas or D.C.

What are so bad about relief from climate change and low gasoline prices? Decision-making! The lack of crises will only further delay the need to take vital steps regarding energy and the environment. And time is of the essence.

Over the past few years, the United States has annually used about 100 quadrillion Btus of energy. Let's toss away that dimension (but analyze in terms of a hundred), so of that sum, 40 was oil, 23 coal and natural gas each, 8 nuclear and 7 (a bit high, but it was 6 in 2003 and looms to hit 7 soon) renewable energy. Biomass was 3.6, hydropower 2.5 and everything else was noise, although wind power is up to 0.32 and rising. Note that our energy consumption has not gone up much (98 in 2003), but, surprisingly, renewables have barely increased a grand total of one (1) in that period, partly because hydropower has declined. Yes, only a one percent improvement since 2003. Part of the reason for this lackluster advancement is the lack of enthusiasm for needed change.

But, unless we take decisive action now, we will have missed another opportunity. For the sake of Planet Earth and Humanity, we must immediately enact two meaningful measures, a national one and the other international.

1. First, Congress must add a $1/gallon gasoline investment surcharge now. We moaned at $4/gallon gasoline when Europeans were paying more than $10/gallon. The national price for premium today is less than $2/gallon. A whole dollar only kicks the price up to $3/gallon. This fund would accrue about $125 billion/year. Work out the rebates and subsidies, but spend most of the revenues on renewable energy research, demonstration and commercialization.

2. On a global scale, the G8 nations need to agree at their 2009 Italian Summit on a 1 cent/pound carbon dioxide remediation duty linked to crude oil at $30/barrel, to proportionately increase such that the levy would be 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide at $150/bbl crude. The sum collected could amount to about $200 billion/year just in the U.S. Funds should be used by each country to install smart grids and accelerate renewable energy investments. At 1 cent/pound, electricity costs would increase for coal-fired electricity by 7 cents/kWh, making unnecessary any renewable energy tax credits and various nuclear perquisites, bringing into competitiveness wind power and utility scale solar thermal power.

But, as explained in my HuffPo of January 5, nothing will happen because there is no crisis. A potential fatal flaw of our society is the inability to make tough decisions absent any man-made or natural calamity. No doubt a tepid cap and trade attempt will be made and there will be sincere bluster about a workable replacement for the Kyoto Protocol. But those border on paralysis by analysis.

This $325 billion judgment palls in comparison to the Wall Street rescue package ($700 billion), the upcoming Obama stimulus program ($1 trillion) and the Middle East Wars ($3 trillion). Yes, this is comparing apples and oranges, for one, people hate taxes and can almost accept loans or fight terrorism, especially when you don't feel the daily bite. Nevertheless, this Peak Oil/Global Warming fund will insure for stable energy prices while providing development insurance to avoid an impending cataclysm far worse than our current relative hangnail.

The American public believes, more than 90%, for example, in an ethereal concept such as a God. Is it possible for the Obama Administration to believe in the overwhelming evidence provided by scientists and specialists about the impending doom being forecast from the crush of Peak Oil and Global Warming, and, thereby, take immediate and appropriate action? Yes they can, so do it now!

-

The Dow Jones Industrials rose 69 today to 8281, and so did the rest of the world markets. Crude oil dropped $2.39/barrel to $36.42. Gold jumped $25.70/toz to $842.40.

-

END OF WARS (Part 19)

The following continues the serialization from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

But how many active terrorists are out there? The State Department supposedly had a list of 65,000 names, but that was before 9/11. Certainly, there are more now, but not anything close to a million, and, actively, probably, around 100,000. The world population is approaching 7 billion. Don’t place all one billion or so Muslim’s in the terrorist pot. Only a very few extremists are the problem. It is a bit disconcerting, though, that our government is not really sure if there are 1 million or 7 million Muslims in the U.S. Then again, we shouldn’t categorize people by religion, so, so much for that. The U.S. Census has it right in the middle, or 4 million. What is truly troublesome is that former Department of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked, how is the U.S. faring against terrorists’ extremist ideology in the global “battle of ideas,” and he gave our country a D or D+ grade.

To recap about Middle East religion:

o Egypt Sunni Muslim
o Turkey Sunni Muslim
o Saudi Arabia Sunni Muslim
o Syria Sunni Muslim
o Jordan Sunni Muslim
o Pakistan Sunni (77%) Muslim
o Iraq Shi’a (63%) Muslim – Sunni (35%)
o Iran Shi’a (89%) Muslim
o Israel Jewish (77%) – Muslim (16%)
o Lebanon Christian (41%)–Sunni (27%) –Shi’a (26%)
o India Hindu (81%) – Muslim (13%)
-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 200, but began a spectacular recovery of 289, then settling to +12 at 8196. World markets mostly fell. Crude oil rose two bucks to $38.81/barrel. Gold increased $6.60/toz to $816.70.

-

BLACK HOLES AND SUSTAINABLE RESOURCES

This posting has nothing to do with astrophysics, as such, although I once worked for NASA on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. After a full lifetime spent on virtually every sustainable energy option imaginable—working under (way under) Edward Teller in laser fusion to drafting the original hydrogen legislation for the U.S. Senate which became the Matsunaga Act to directing the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute at the University of Hawaii (details can be found in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth), I have come to certain conclusions seeking a lifetime of validation. Over the past seven months I have published 40 articles in the Huffington Post, all on some aspect of energy and the environment, so if you want details or exact references to the following, go to my books or those HuffPo articles.

Change has happened, It is downright shocking how time has changed the energy landscape so swiftly, for peaking at $147/barrel just this past July, Goldman Sachs expects oil to drop to $30/bbl this quarter. I must warn you that they did predict oil would rise to $149 by the end of last year, missing by about $100/bbl. But our U.S. Department of Energy predicted that oil prices would average $43.25/barrel this year (it was $99.55/bbl last year), and further, projected that the price will be $54.50/bbl next year. That agency has historically missed the mark with uncommon regularity. What if, though, GS and the USDOE are right this time?

So absent any better prognostications, the following logic should prevail:

1...Over the past few years, the United States has annually used about 100 quadrillion Btus of energy. Let’s toss away that dimension (but analyze in terms of a hundred), so of that sum, 40 was oil, 23 coal and natural gas each, 8 nuclear and 7 (a bit high, but it was 6 in 2003 and looms to hit 7 soon) renewable energy. Biomass was 3.6, hydropower 2.5 and everything else was noise, although wind power is up to 0.32 and rising. Note that our energy consumption has not gone up much (98 in 2003 and should have been about 100 last year), but, worse, renewables have barely increased a grand total of one (1) in that period, partly because hydropower has declined. Yes, a one percent improvement since 2003. If oil remains under $60/bbl for the next two years, or longer, investments in major sustainable resource projects will be delayed and the White House / Congress will not pass any energy program of noteworthiness.

2...If, however, our leaders fail to take decisive action, we will have missed an opportunity, for now is the exact right time to act on two items. First, add a $1/gallon gasoline investment surcharge. We moaned at $4/gallon gasoline when Europeans were paying more than $10/gallon. The national price for premium today is less than $2/gallon. A whole dollar only kicks the price up to $3/gallon. This fund would accrue about $125 billion/year. Work out the rebates and subsidies, but spend most of the revenues on renewable energy research, demonstration and commercialization. Any chance for this measure to be adopted by our Congress? Let me pass on this for now.

3...The second must, now, is for the G8 nations to agree at their 2009 Italian Summit on a 1 cent/pound carbon dioxide remediation duty linked to crude oil at $30/barrel, to proportionately increase such that the levy would be 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide at $150/bbl crude. Funds should be used by each country to install smart grids and accelerate renewable energy investments. At 1 cent/pound, electricity costs would increase for coal-fired electricity by 7 cents/kWh, making unnecessary any renewable energy tax credits and various nuclear perquisites, bringing into competitiveness wind power and utility scale solar thermal power. The sum collected could amount to about $200 billion/year just in the U.S. What are the odds for such swift action?

It all depends on the right crisis, as explained in my HuffPo of January 5. Absent any man-made or natural calamity, what can we then expect of the incoming Obama Administration? First, oil will apparently remain under $60/barrel for a couple of years. Second, millions probably won’t perish from a terribly hot summer. Worse, there is a lot of misinformation being reported, including reports that the planet has cooled since George Bush has been President. The media likes to pick up these stories, confusing the masses on something that still results in really cold winters and sea level rise that cannot be appreciated, especially if you live in Kansas or D.C.

Thus, let me boldly state that, as much as the incoming Obama Administration has promised change, and they really meant well, all signs point to nothing significant happening for the next few years to combat the coming dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming. Please prove me wrong! All focus, however, will need to be placed on our economic crisis. There might be a tepid cap and trade initiative and important bluster to re-do the Kyoto Protocol with American leadership, but that will be it.

Oh, yes, about the title. I could say that crazy ideas have been tossed around about capturing black holes to produce energy. This is nonsense. We can, though, toss conventional wisdom into a proverbial black hole and act with purpose. Yes, you can. Every one of you out there can help make that crucial difference by doing something progressive, for a change. Guidelines are provided in the Epilogue of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.
-

The Dow Jones Industrial plummeted 248 to 8200. Most world markets fell the same or worse. Crude dropped almost $2 to $36.81/bbl. Gold decreased $9/toz to $813.

-

THE BIOMETHANOL ECONOMY: AN UPDATE

I was recently sent some information updating the potential of methanol from biomass. For information on this subject, go to Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, or my Huffington Post articles on "What is the Best Biofuel?" and "Is there an Option More Promising than the Plug-In Electric Vehicle?"

-

One city in Denmark, for example, has chosen biomass to methanol to hydrogen into a fuel cell as their transport choice, but with a reformer to convert methanol into hydrogen. While hardly sensible (the reformer part), industry is getting close to removing that step.

-

In August of this year Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies announced an educational direct ethanol fuel cell powered by vodka, so if anyone can actually make a DEFC work, a direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) should be a virtual slam dunk. The simple matter of MeOh having only one carbon atom and EtOH two should give MeOH an overwhelming advantage. It's also much cheaper to produce methanol by gasification/catalysis than ethanol from hydrolysis/fermentation.

-

The Department of Commerce did award $4.6 million to MTI Micro, a company partly owned by Dupont, to develop a micro DMFC. But that was nearly a decade ago. They continue to exist and supposedly have a proprietary DMFC rechargeable power pack, while hinting about hand held electronic applications.

-

Motorola, apparently, has given up, although they keep appearing at specialty conferences on the subject. While another American company, DTI Energy Inc., regularly announces that the DMFC will be widely commercialized by 2010, I noticed that Japanese companies have kept awfully quiet recently.

-

E-mail exchanges with some world class specialists, though, give me confidence that the concept of the DMFC is real, and should someday be available to run a fuel cell powered automobile five times further than the lithium battery. However, we are nowhere close to developing such a widget, and this could well be a decade or longer away. The USDOE, for example, still prohibits funding for this pathway, so this is one hurdle that needs to be removed, plus, of course, that other one of only supporting ethanol and biodiesel research and commercialization.

-

Interesting that many of those NOVA, Discovery and Science programs on determing the future of remewable transport keep only mentioning hydrogen as the fuel for fuel cells. One would think that the ease with which methanol can replace the gasoline infrastructure and that counterintuitive fact about one gallon of methanol having 1.40 times more accessible hydrogen than liquid hydrogen would be logically convincing. However, I guess I'm the only one I know who has any interest in this option, for I last week asked a swarm of colleagues if anyone was interested in this system, and I got no response. Well, on to the Blue Revolution or the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped about a hundred points today, but slowly recovered to minus 25 at 8449. World markets all generally fell. Crude oil rose $1.83 to $38.97/barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy predicted that oil prices will average $43.25/barrel this year, compared to $99.55/bbl last year, and, further, projected that the price will be $54.50/bbl next year. Also, in the U.S., we will use 19.12 million barrel/day this year, having averaged 19.51 MMBD last year. Gold slipped a dollar/toz to $822.

-