Total Pageviews

Monday, January 12, 2009

THE END OF WARS (Part 18)

The following is largely excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

When you read books and articles about this topic, it is helpful to understand the terms:

o Jihad: Islamic holy war
-
o Mujahidin: person who wages a jihad
-
o Intifada: rebellion
-
o Diaspora: migration away from ancestral homeland
-
o Shiite: a Muslim of the Shia branch of Islam who believes in Ali and the Imams as the only rightful successors of Muhammad
-
o Sunni: a Muslim of the branch of Islam that adheres to the orthodox tradition (yes, they don’t seem to be too different)
-
o Fatwa: a decree handed down by an Islamic leader, as for example Ayatollah Khomeini, calling for the execution of Salman Rushdie in 1989, and bin Laden and Zawahiri and others in 1997 issuing the ruling to kill Americans and their allies, including civilians.

There are variations and sectarian differences, such as that represented by Wahhabism and Takfiri concepts, as for example, Al Queda may be considered the generic name for all those movements that have in common what is called the Takfiri ideology, but the above should suffice for this discussion.

Thus, the terror scorecard in the Middle East:

Terrorist Org..........Headquarters...Sect.......Living Notables

Al Queda..............Afghanistan...........Sunni.......Osama bin Laden
..............................and Pakistan...........................Ayman Al-Zawahiri

Taliban.................Afghanistan...........Sunni.......Mohammad Omar

Hamas..................Palestine..............Sunni.......Khaled Mashal
............................................................................Ismail Haniyeh

Palestinian
Islamic Jihad..........Syria...................Sunni.......Ramadan Shallah
.............................................................................(Ayman Al-Zawahiri)

Palestine
Liberation
Organization.........Palestine................Sunni......Mahmoud Abbas

Hezbollah.............Lebanon.................Shiite......Hassan Nasrallah
-
The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 125 to 8474. Except for Hong Kong, world markets all declined. Crude crashed 8.5% from Friday, sinking $3.48/barrel to $37.14. Goldman Sachs expects oil to drop to $30/bbl this quarter. However, they did predict that oil would rise to $149 by the end of last year, missing by about $100/bbl. Gold sunk $33.70/toz to $819.90.
-

Saturday, January 10, 2009

SAVING PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY

My blog of December 31 on "Simple Solutions for 2009," also published in The Huffington Post that day, initiated a series of virtual discussions on Saving Planet Earth and Humanity. The focus was initially on what Hawaii can do about Peak Oil and Global Warming.
-
It seems that renewable electricity should in time develop. We're currently heading down the wrong path on ground transport with ethanol and biodiesel. We're in deep %#@&# regarding aviation, as in five to ten years jet fuel prices will make travel to Hawaii only for the rich. So, there have been discussions heading in twenty directions on subjects like, "does hydrogen have a fatal flaw," "will the direct methanol fuel cell replace the plug-in electric vehicle?," "how to survive the coming doom," "we blew it after the second energy crisis in 1979," "what about biomethanol?," "will jet fuel from algae ever become competitive?," "the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper," "vital decisions will not be made because there is no present crisis" and more.
-
Continuing this discussion, some of you, but only a few, I think, feel that it is already too late, so why even try to find solutions. There are those who wish to minimize general and personal pain during the coming doom. Others philosophize and pontificate that we can't give up. Mostly for the latter group, I wonder if we can begin to catalogue a list of activities worthy of pursuit? Let me start by repeating my frequent call to re-direct defense expenditures toward combating Peak Oil and Global Warming.

Did you watch the festivities today celebrating the commissioning of the USS George H. W. Bush? What pomp with 21,000 dignitaries and observers. On this note, I summarize my previous posting:
-
1. The average U.S. Department of Energy annual budget for renewable energy research over the past decade was under $1 billion. By the way, that floating golf ball which returned to Pearl Harbor, having protected us from North Korean missiles, alone, cost about a billion dollars.
-
2. The USS Bush, a brand new nuclear-powered aircraft carrier,* will cost taxpayers $4.5 billion (nope, the price is now listed at $6.2 billion). This will be our tenth Nimitz-class carrier, and the last.
-
3. However, on the horizon are the Gerald R. Ford class nuclear carriers, the first to cost $8 billion, not including the $5 billion R&D being expended to insure for producing the finest. It's a toss-up if the initial version will be called the Gerald R. Ford or America. The second has already been reserved as the USS Arizona. We're now up to $21 billion to scare the Russians and Chinese into they, likewise, investing in their future.
-
4. Also, 30 new Virginia-class submarines will be built at $2.5 billion apiece, or $75 billion.
-
5. The program cost of the F-22 Raptor stealth fighters is $65 billion.
-
With Senator Inouye heading both the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and full Committee, certainly some of the above will end up in Hawaii. As a beginning, our Hawaii Air National Guard is scheduled to receive 18 F-22s worth $2.6 billion. Certainly, it would be sacrilegious to even hint that these expenditures might not today be necessary, especially when the people of Hawaii, and Nation, mostly support all the above. For the same, but different, reasons, there is also strong support for all those ridiculous airport security precautions. But there is no cold war anymore and we annually outspend China on defense by a factor of six (28 to 1 on a per capita basis).
-
Just think, if that sum of money mentioned above (and, there is a lot more, for Joseph Stiglitz in his book of this sum, remarked that the cost of the current Middle East wars will cost $3 trillion, recently updated to $5 trillion) can, instead, be applied to sustainable resource development? Where would Hawaii and our Nation be in 2025 if that were possible? Is there any hope for a shift in priorities? The reality is, of course, no, but I refer you, again, to my very first Huffington Post article published on May 29 entitled, Well, Barack, We have a Problem. Just about everything of any importance I've accomplished in my life started as a one-in-a-million adventure, so why break with tradition.
-

Friday, January 9, 2009

END OF WARS (Part 17)

The following is primarily from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:
-
The primary terrorist organizations in the Middle East are (mostly from Wikipedia):

o Al Qaeda (AQ), also spelled Al-Quaeda or Al-Qa’ida or Al Qaida or Al-Qaidah, among many variations is a Sunni paramilitary organization which was named, of all things, by the U.S. Justice Department. The literary translation is “the foundation or base.” While it’s really more than this, the popular story is that Osama bin Laden, a Saudi Arabian, met in 1979 with Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian medical doctor, to form the group. Interestingly enough, the U.S. provided funds to this outfit in the 1980’s. After they “beat” the Soviets out of Afghanistan in 1989, the first Gulf War of 1990 provided another opportunity to rid the region of infidels, especially the U.S. By some accounts, this is when AQ really organized. The 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, killing more than 200 and wounding 5,000, and the 2000 attack on the U.S.S. Cole, killing 17 sailors, were by AQ. Their September 11, 2001 strike of the World Trade Center and Pentagon, slaughtering nearly 3,000, set the table for the second Gulf War in 2002. The 2005 London, Jordan and Egypt bombings resulting in more than 200 deaths, were reportedly AQ operated. Supposedly, 100,000 have received AQ training, but “only” 20,000 seem active world-wide.
-
o The Taliban is an Afghanistanian, indigenous, Sunni movement that formed in the midst of the Soviet-backed Democratic Republic government being overthrown in 1992, leading to a civil war among American bankrolled warlords. There, however, also is an important connection to the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan, which received some funding from the American CIA. Yes, the U.S., thus, had a hand in establishing both AQ and the Taliban, and to boot, the Taliban were initially the good guys, bringing some military and economic stability to the country, including eliminating the payments businesses had to make to the warlords, and banning the growing of opium. In 1996, the Taliban established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, winning recognition from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in 1997. In what have become almost standard reverse operations, the U.S. succeeded in an international effort called Operation Enduring Freedom to depose the Taliban in 2001. While in 2001 opium had been reduced by 98%, after their fall, by 2004, Afghanistan was supplying 87% of the world opium supply. One practice objected to by the liberated world is that the movement believed women should stay at home and take care of the children. Hmmm, that’s not all, bad, actually. The Taliban is aligned with bin Laden through family marriage, and is an enemy of Shiite Iran, and also, now, the U.S. There supposedly are more Taliban fighters than AQ terrorists.
-
o Hamas is an acronym corresponding to an Arabic word for zeal or fanaticism, has a meaning of courage, and is a Sunni organization that was democratically elected to govern Palestine in the 2006 elections. This legislative takeover was an embarrassment to the Bush Administration. Created in 1987, it is known for suicide bombings and acts against Israel. Their charter calls for destruction of the State of Israel. They have thousand of supporters, but only a small number of active soldiers. The lobbing of rockets from the Gaza Strip (at last count, more than 3000 this past year). Western logic does not work in understanding why the Hamas doesn't just stop sending bombs into Israel to end the turmoil.
-
o The Sunni Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement (PIJM), also called Al-Jihad, has dual goals to liberate Palestine and destroy Israel. It was founded in the 1970’s as a branch of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which today is led by Ayman al-Zawahri, the second in command of AQ. While far smaller than Hamas, the PIJM specializes in suicide bombers, using even women and teens. It is most famous for assassinating Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, is headquartered in Damascus, the capital of Syria, and receives financial aid from that country and Iran. It has several hundred hard core members.
-
o The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was created in 1964 by the Arab League to form an independent Palestinian state. It is recognized for their 1972 Black September splinter group’s attack on the Israeli Olympic squad in Munich. Known to be extremely wealthy, the PLO has $50 billion in secret investments in Zimbabwe and Somalia. Mohammed Abdel-Raouf “Yasir” Arafat, a Sunni, the man with the checkered kaffiyeh, became chairman in 1969. In 1988 Arafat renounced terrorism and gained metastable peace through the Oslo Accords of 1993. He, along with Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. While President Bill Clinton got personally involved in the peace process, President George Bush the Younger refused to meet with Arafat. After surviving numerous assassination attempts and illnesses, he finally succumbed to a blood ailment in 2004. But the PLO lives on as a quasi-terrorist organization still dedicated to the dissolution of Israel. The current leader is Mahmoud Abbas.
-
o Hezbollah or Hizbullah or Hizballah or—this is a bit more complicated, as the spelling varies with grammatical usage—but let us use the most common, Hezbollah, a Shiite political party and military organization. Ayatollah Khomeini was the founder in the early 1980’s. Most Iranians are Muslim and 90% of them belong to the Shia community, which also is Lebanon’s largest religious group, about 40% of 3 million citizens. Financial aid unofficially comes from Iran and Syria. Hezbollah is credited with the 1983 suicide bombings of the U.S. Embassy, killing 63, and the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, with 299 slain, plus the 1994 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in London. Hezbollah is to Lebanon as Hamas is to Palestine, and Hezbollah supports the Hamas’ death to Israel policy, noting that the former is Shiite and latter Sunni. Israel overrides religious differences here. However, the Sunni-Shiite split is why Al-Queda and Hezbollah had strained relations…until the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon erupted in 2006. Then, Ayman al-Zawahri weighed in with a call for all Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel. There are several thousand supporters, but only a few hundred Hezbollah warriors.
-
You could just as well also add Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the above list. In many countries, George W. Bush is cosidered to be the world's leading terrorist.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials slipped an additional 143 to 8599, with minor exceptions, following world markets. 2008 was the worst year for jobs since 1945, with 2.6 million losses, most of them over the past four months.
-
Crude oil dropped another buck to $40.62/barrel, but at the start of the day was below $40/bbl. Gold fell $2/toz to $853.
-

Thursday, January 8, 2009

END OF WARS (Part 16)

The following is largely excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, Chapter 1:

Bush’s Axis of Evil

George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address on January 29, 2002, identified the Axis of Evil that sponsored terror: Iraq, Iran and North Korea. But while he devoted only 17 words to North Korea and 19 to Iran, he spent all of 84 words on Iraq, showing, no doubt, his priorities. In World War II there were the Axis Powers: Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan. These three are now close allies, maybe our most important ones, next to the U.K. So is it a matter of time before these terror regimes, too, become buddies?

Iraq and North Korea are worrisome because of their nuclear interests. North Korea’s exhibitionist tendencies with rockets are troublesome, although they have now shut down their nuclear program, I think. Israel just might serve as the armed angel of mercy for a safer Middle East, and Japan, might just step up its activity level because of those rockets, although the U.S. policy seems to be to just wait for the collapse, which more times than not in the past has worked, as both countries have now abandoned their original nuclear ambitions, sort of.

One of the problems with terrorism and the Middle East is that the U.S. is just not wanted there. On the same day, July 9, 2006, The Honolulu Advertiser had two articles on the very same page 12:

o “7 suspected terrorists escape from Saudi prison”
o “19 al-Qaida suspects acquitted in Yemen”

One would have thought that both Saudi Arabia and Yemen were close allies with us against terrorism, but actions speak louder than words. Word of the escape in Saudi Arabia was not reported until several days after the jailbreak and the Yemen judge said that these terrorists did not violate Yemeni law because Islamic Sharia law permits jihad against occupiers.
-
Whew, after a drop of 118, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered to only minus 27 at 8742. Except for Canada, world markets also declined. Oil sunk another buck to $41.70/barrel. Remember how I was lamenting the lack of crises and that the Obama Regime would only focus on the economy? Well, apparently, I was wrong, for CNNMoney today reported on a $2 trillion bet on powering America, where Barack Obama today called for investments toward a new smart electric grid. While Obama was only suggesting billions, the Brattle Group (think tank) estimated the $2 trillion price tag for the full package. Gold rose $14/toz to $857.
-

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

END OF WARS (Part 15)

The following is largely excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, as Part 2 on George W. Bush:

This is but a short list of President Bush’s crises and travails:

o Started a cowboy war in Iraq without finding any weapons of mass destruction, while being unable to win the peace.

o Responded late and disastrously to the Hurricane Katrina destruction of New Orleans.

o Appointed a friend to the Supreme Court, which was rejected.

o Recommended a “no child left behind” education policy that failed.

o Promoted an anti-environmental program that included defying the Kyoto Protocol, dismantling federal control over protected areas, diluting federal rules governing air pollution, approving the drilling for oil and gas in pristine wilderness areas, easing rules for coal-fired power plants, permitting the continued use of 31 popular but controversial pesticides and allowing the sale of PCB-tainted lands.

o Formed an unholy alliance with the moral majority and religion in general, dismantling the wall between church and state.

o Developed a ruinous foreign policy program engendering considerable international distrust.

o Reversed the $5 trillion surplus earlier predicted for the first decade of this century to a deficit of $5 trillion.

o Disregarded personal rights through advocacy and conduct of the Patriot Act.

o Promoted fossil fuels and nuclear energy, with only token support for sustainable resources.

o Sponsored a health program biased towards rich people.

o Disregarded scientific integrity in policy making and disdained inconvenient research, with notable examples being for global climate change, lead poisoning, air pollution and stem cell study. Leading researchers (62, including 20 Nobel laureates and 19 recipients of the National Medal of Science, including a few advisors to Nixon and Eisenhower) gave Bush failing marks, and were joined by 12,000 other scientists.

The above no doubt caused the Democratic takeover of the U.S. Congress in the 2006 elections and White House in 2008. It was on his watch that the world economy collapsed. Ironically, he is being praised for establishing marine national monuments in the Pacific, but I worry that the future of the Blue Revolution will be compromised with these distinctions.

But the President of the United States is the most powerful person on the face of the Earth. His declarations carry a lot of influence. Plus, he is right about democracy and the Middle East.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials sank 245 to 8770, and except for Sweden, the whole world also dropped. Crude oil tumbled $5.66/barrel to $42.72. Gold fell $22/toz to $842.
-

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

THE END OF WARS (Part 14)

Well, back to Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. Parts 14 and 15 will deal with President George Walker Bush, #43 POTUS.
-
President George Bush, #43

I can’t help but insert here another one of those internet jokes that regularly comes across as almost spam:

Subject: Presidential Alert

Donald Rumsfeld briefed the President this morning. He told Bush that three Brazilian soldiers were killed in Iraq.

To everyone's amazement, all of the color ran from Bush's face, then he collapsed onto his desk, head in hands, visibly shaken, almost whimpering.

Finally, he composed himself and asked "Just exactly how many is a Brazillion?"

No, this did not, in fact, occur, and the entire above aside, President George W. Bush, actually, just might have the clue to insuring for world peace forever. I have tended to disagree with him on just about everything else, but I support my President on maintaining the effort in Iraq. Why? As Ronald Reagan played a key role in ending the Cold War, George Bush the Younger could well have the solution to world peace, forever. We will discuss this later in the simple solution to wars.

But President George W. Bush is certainly unpopular. In 2004, historians rated Bush a disaster, as 81% of 415 classified this presidency a failure. This was in his first term. As we all know, it got worse.

I count more than 300 polls taken of his overall job rating since then, from August 2005 to 2007. (You need to wait until SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth and Humanity, circa 2009, for the update). During 2005, approve averaged around 40% and disapprove 55%, with unsure at 5%. “Approve” began dropping to a low of 28% level in 2007, and almost always above 60% for disapproval. [But an update: except for FOX, which still tends to rate Bush's approval at 29%, all other polls at the end of 2008 had him at 22% or 23%.] The end of presidency job approval ratings were: Bill Clinton (65%), Ronald Reagan (64%), Dwight Eisenhower (59%), John F. Kennedy (63%), George Bush the Elder (56%), Gerald Ford (53%), Lyndon Johnson (49%), Jimmy Carter (34%) and Richard Nixon (24%). [Yes, Bush will probably do worse than Nixon, if you can delete FOX, waving it's conservative banner.]

Let’s look at the pluses. Bush has “incredible passion and resolve.” His religious feelings I place as a non-negative, but we'll revisit that in Chapter 5. He was quoted to say to Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia in 2004, courtesy of Bob Woodward in his State of Denial, “I get guidance from God in prayer,” and has thusly received guidance. God is great in the Middle East countries. God was, though, not particularly good to Bush.

We recovered from 9/11. He routed the Taliban and took out Saddam Hussein. On August 9, 2007, he put Iran on notice for supporting terrorism. Oh…oh. They overreacted and professed that they gave up on nuclear weapons to undercut any insanity on part of the Americans.

Oh yes, he did win re-election, although the Daily Mirror of London headlined: “How can 59,054,087 people be so dumb.” The U.K. is our closest ally. Further, people are still wondering how John Kerry was tainted by his heroics in the Vietnam war when Bush himself, Dick Cheney, Dennis Hastert, Paul Wolfowitz, Karl Rowe, John Ashcroft, Richard Perle, Andrew Card and Tom Delay somehow managed to avoid that conflict. Speaking of Delay, there was also that Jack Abramoff scandal that the White House deftly sidestepped.

A destructive influence on President Bush was Vice President Richard Cheney. During the transition period before entering the White House, I noticed his arrogance shown in secretly meeting with oil and nuclear executives to carve a national energy policy. During my U.S. Senate days, I recall Cheney as an authoritative figure with commanding presence working for Senator Scoop Jackson (who was a Democrat from Washington). Cheney’s one percent doctrine, from the book by Ron Suskind, might have been particularly damaging. In essence, if there was a 1% chance that certain terrorist acts were possible, he treated it as a certainty, or a 100% probability.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials went up 62 to 9015, and are 2.75% higher for the year. World markets also increased, and for the year, particularly, Singapore +9%, Hong Kong +8% and Shanghai +3%. Crude oil is at $48.38/barrel, a few cents lower than yesterday. I'm not sure what this means, but the United Nations suspended the Russian Carbon Registry for non-payment, something on the order of $120,000+. Gold is up $9/toz to $864.
-
I noticed that in 2008, McDonalds Corp went up 8.3% and WallMart Stores was plus 19.9%. How many realized that Hawaii Electric increased 2.7%, Cyanotech Corp +4.3% and Hawaiian Holdings (Hawaiian Air) zoomed 25.1%?
-

Monday, January 5, 2009

-
The following is Part 4 of what started on December 31, 2008. This was my message to my Peak Oil and Global Warming friends today:
-
Dear Colleagues:

Interesting that not one person reacted to my message about why I feel that nothing will happen anytime soon about combating Peak Oil and Global Warming because there is no obvious crisis to influence decision-makers. So, I thought I'd go national and publish this view in
The Huffington Post. You can now comment there, but, after 36 postings in that virtual newspaper, I have observed that most of the resultant responses, save for a precious few, are either naive or deprecatory. I actually tracked some of the latter and found out why. The negative reactions to my global warming messages, for example, generally come from organizations like the Heartland Foundation (and they exist in myriad forms, usually with humanitarian sounding names) funded by the oil industry. My direct methanol fuel cell article was dumped on by an individual, who I later learned, had long been advocating the sodium borohydride fuel cell, and was bitter for being largely ignored by government and industry.

I became a regular contributor to the Huffington Post because I thought, surely, people concerned about Peak Oil and Global Warming would provide instant comments, galvanizing a movement to make a difference. Maybe even replace those so last generation protest marches. Nope, that did not work. A glimmer of potential came when I sent some of you my HuffPo on "Simple Solutions for 2009," and ask that you send this posting to your colleagues. That resulted in the train of comments from most of you, but only to the choir--us.

So, this time, why don't you send the above article to your entire mailing list. Of course, if you disagree with me about the necessity of crises, or, maybe feel that what I am saying is too depressing, in that nothing will happen until the SHTF, then, I implore you to come up with that magical solution for all of us to send to our mailing list. Just communicating to ourselves might be satisfying to some of you, but we can do so much more. We can make a difference!

Aloha.

Pat
-
To expand the reach, I also sent the following:
-
Dear Colleagues:

As you widen the network with your mailing list, there are two electronic contact points possibly worthy of your submission, no pun intended, but both are nevertheless similar to a powerball lottery. Better yet, send them to Barack Obama himself, if you have that channel available.

1. To become one of the ten Obama supporters winning a trip to his inauguration, simply write a short essay.

2. Or, you can communicate with his appropriate transition team. Note that they want real stamped letters...no doubt to reduce the input.

If enough people (about a million would do) send similar messages, something will click. Of course, when you send in your e-mail, that becomes a source of fundraising for our President-Elect. But another frequent spam or two should be at the noise level for most of us.

Aloha.

Pat
-
The Dow Jones Industrials dropped almost 1% today, minus 82 to 8953. World markets all rose. Let's see if they all decrease tomorrow, playing copy cat to America. Crude oil increased $2.16/barrel to $48.50. Gold fell $17/toz to $859.
-

Sunday, January 4, 2009

THE SUN WILL CONTINUE TO SHINE...

...at least for another 5 billion years. The survival of humanity as we currently know it will, however, be tested. This is Part 2 of the fallout from my Huffington Post and Daily Blog articles on Simple Solutions for 2009. There were numerous comments, mostly among a core of Hawaii colleagues. On one hand, I feel a bit guilty about wasting so much time for so many friends. On the other, it is life on Planet Earth at stake, so I feel compelled to continue this effort.
.
To summarize, a few feel that it is too late and doomsday is coming. A few more are reconciled to a lower standard of living. Some believe that monumental changes might still be possible, but we need inspired leadership and major structural adjustments to government. My latest response to one such input follows:
.
Dear XXXX:
.
You're, of course, absolutely right. In my second Huffington Post article on June 2, entitled, Why Is There No National Energy Policy?, I went so far as to say that we shouldn't blame George Bush, nor the U.S. Congress, and not the oil companies. We have no energy policy because we don't feel it is important enough. The problem is us, as Pogo could have said. There were more than a hundred comments.
.
It's like education. We grumble and complain, but generally do nothing much about the poor scores of our students in any K-12 international test. Why? Because, as a nation, we are doing fine. We are the greatest nation ever, and the reason why is that we have by far the best higher education system, spending more money than any other country where it does make a difference. You need 5% of the populace to lead the way, but maintain an adequate core of followers, sort of what we are doing. So don't expect any sudden increase in salaries for lower education teachers because that's the smart thing to do for our future. We might, though, look closer at Finland and Singapore, and borrow as necessary.
.
Essentially, we need a serious crisis. Hitler and the fear that Germany would develop the A-Bomb first was the reason for the Manhattan Project. Sputnik resulted in the Apollo Project, leading to the end of the Cold War. I thought we reached the energy equivalent with $147/barrel oil a few weeks after the above article. Alas, crude oil at less than $50/barrel will make it all but impossible for any drastic and accelerated change. Global Warming? Many millions will need to perish for any real movement.
.
So, I'll maintain my pontification crusade to continue the education process, awaiting the day when $200/barrel petroleum or that really hot summer arrives to make that crucial difference. In the meantime, I still think there is something to the direct methanol fuel cell and the biomethanol economy as a necessary bridge, plus the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper. For now, enjoy life as best as you can. The Doomsdayers might turn out to be right, but I'll continue to valiantly plug on hoping for the best.


Aloha.

Pat
-

Friday, January 2, 2009

THE SUN IS SHINING

My Simple Solutions for 2009 drew a bunch of personal responses from a wide variety of individuals. For example, one esteemed faculty colleague responded that my solutions ignored the true issues, among them being resource depletion and population. Nothing much I can do about population, but nature seems to taking care of that problem, for, while the doubling times have continued to drop, our world population might never again double, and, perhaps peak below 10 billion. Plus, I thought my solutions were attempting to force conservation and convert to sustainable resources.
-
Secondly, I should not mention names, and won't, but one respondent indicated that he endorsed essentially my simple solutions forty years ago, when we had time to implement them. Essentially, it is now too late, so rejoice, he says, to a tourist-less, isolated, self sufficient place, as Hawaii will soon become for the foreseeable future. I worry that he might be right.
-
Also, too, I was admonished more than once, for referring to a few campus thinkers in my response as being doomsdayers. Apparently, I'm misunderstanding their message, for they are not saying all is hopeless. In their own way, they are striving to focus on awareness and appropriate action. Keep at it, guys.
-
On this note, I would like to recognize another faculty friend, Fred Riggs, who, shaking his head about certain doomsdayers (we used to think alike), said, giving up is not an option. He created a web site, which still lives, although he passed away almost a year ago at the age of 90.
-
In summary, then, I offer my limited view of Hawaii's future. The world economy will recover, tourists will return, but jet fuel prices will skyrocket within a few years, and Hawaii, especially, will enter into a deep state of depression for a long period. I'm even beginning to sound like those less than optimistic scholars. A century from now, though, this lonely spot in the middle of the Pacific should be doing just fine. Huh?
-
So is there anything we can do to minimize the interim trauma, and, better yet, create a sustainable bridge to our future? I must side with those people I have been mis-labeling doomsdayers and express my frustration, too, that decision-makers do not realize the seriousness of Peak Oil and Global Warming, else, they would immediately be taking monumental steps to preclude the doom, which does not seem to be happening.
-
As much as I have been almost against tourism and doing everything possible all my professional life to help diversify our economy, I face the reality that I miserably failed at this. So, as tourism remains so overwhelmingly crucial to our local economy, and will be for a long time to come, something must be done about finding a new option for bringing visitors to our State. For now, the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper is our best option, and I wish the developers well.
-
In the 70's we had acid rain, limits to growth, Richard Nixon, the population bomb, embarrassment of Viet Nam and two energy crises. I was teaching a course called "Technology and Society," and then also had campus colleagues who were planning for the crash of civilization. They begun to hunker down, one going so far as having all his teeth extracted. Many say it is different this time, and the outcome will be worse.
-
However, the world managed to survive the 70's doomsday, and I suspect most of our species will be around for a long time to come. In any case, the Sun is shining, the economy could well be recovering, Obama will soon be inaugurated and Hawaii seems destined to someday become that heaven on Planet Earth.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials soared 258 today, to hit 9035. Most world markets did as well or better. Now anticipating a recovery, oil shot up $1.74/barrel to $46.34, and predictably, gold dropped $4/toz to $876.
-

Thursday, January 1, 2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR

The Dow Jones Industrials started on 1Jan08 at 13265, rising to 14165 on 9Oct08, and ended at 8,776, a drop of 34% for the year. How does this compare with the Great Depression?

On 2Jan1929 the DJI started the year at 307. A peak of 381 was reached on 3Sept1929. By the end of year, the DJI fell to 244, for a yearly drop of only 21%. By the end of 1930, the DJI fell to 170, for a yearly decline of 30%. Then there was a further crash of another 58% in 1931. Thus, 2008 was worse than 1929 and 1930, but nothing like 1931. There was a small decline of 12% in 1932, where the DJI reached a low of 41 on July 8. Most don't realize that 1933 saw a jump of 69%, with the DJI at 100 on 2Jan1934. On 28April1942, more than seven years later, the market slid to 93. Recovery came slowly, for it took until 26Nov1954 when the DJI finally reached 383, just above the peak in 1929, a span of a quarter century.

How did the U.S.do relative to world markets?

London...........minus 31%
Frankfurt........minus 40%
Seoul..............minus 41%
Tokyo.............minus 42%
Paris...............minus 43%
Sydney...........minus 43%
Taipei.............minus 46%
Hong Kong......minus 48%
Singapore.......minus 49%
Shanghai.........minus 70%
Moscow..........minus 70%

As terrible as the year was for the U.S., the world did a lot worse.

MSNBC reported that the
New York Mercantile Exchange had its worst year. At this writing, crude is at $43.88/barrel, about $10/bbl higher than the low reported a week ago.

Gold is at $883/toz, a 5% increase for the year. Thus, if, at the beginning of last year you had bought gold instead of stocks in anticipation of the recession, you would have been about 40% ahead today.

I noticed that the stock market might well have been hitting a possible low in mid-November, so I tried to quickly purchase some stocks from my E-Trade and Ameritrade accounts. Both times I was stymied by my general ignorance, as, first, it took me several days just to wire funds into my accounts. Thus, I just missed the DJI low of 7552 (high for the year was 14165 on 9Oct) on 20Nov. I bought Microsoft because it seemed like a good buy, and ProShares Ultra Basic Materials because a friend mentioned it was a derivative, and you might as well get into some of those. I added Lockheed Martin because they had announced an OTEC project for Hawaii, GE because it was the leading American wind energy conversion system manufacturer (and invented the modern windmill) and Boeing because their staff recently showed the most interest in a hydrogen powered aircraft. These are not exactly recommended as reasons for acquiring stocks, but I'm being loyal to firms pioneering sustainable energy projects, not a particularly smart thing to do when the price of oil was approaching all-time lows. Anyway, the bottom line is that over the six week period since I initiated the effort, my five purchases have inceased in value by a ratio of 1.0118, so, if I had invested a million dollars, I would have been ahead by $11,800. But, of course, my monetary sacrifice was somewhat less, so, let's say I made a bit more than one cent on a one dollar comparison basis.
-
HAPPY NEW YEAR!