WHAT TO EXPECT ON MONDAY

It’s Sunday, I’ll keep this short:

Stock markets, year-to-date, are down throughout the world:

Dow Jones Industrials -39%
United Kingdom -41%
S&P 500 -46%
Japan -48%
France -49%
Germany -49%
Hong Kong -54%
Shanghai -71%

Thus, the USA, relative to the world, is doing better.

Foreign exchange to the U.S. Dollar: Now / A Year Ago / % Change

British Pound 0.677 / 0.484 / 40%
Euro 0.800 / 0.674 / 19%
Japanese Yen 95.37 /108.680 / -12%

This means that your dollar goes further in Europe, but just the opposite in Japan.

About Citigroup, Saudi Arabian Prince Talal dumped some money into the bank on Thursday, and that helped for a few hours, then, the stock dropped another 17%. It has lost almost 90% this year. Today—Sunday-- the White House reiterated that no talks were ongoing to rescue the bank. It is 3AM, late Sunday night...who can you trust? Someone is not communicating, for the Fed Reserve and Treasury Department overnight announced they will infuse Citigroup with $20 billion from (TARP funds—that $700 billion package) to guarantee loans.
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No storms in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Anika did make landfall in northwest Australia early today and dumped a lot of rain.
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The Dawn of the Blue Revolution

Much of the following is excerpted from Chapter 4 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth. This is Part II of my series on ocean resources, which was initiated with my previous posting on “The Coming of OTEC," announcing the development of a 10 MW OTEC facility by Lockheed Martin for Honolulu.

Many of you have heard of the Green Revolution, which improved farming practices for grains. The Blue Revolution, while similar in concept, is much more than just a marine copy, for there is promising potential for producing a wide range of sustainable products--renewable energy, green materials, exciting habitats, marine biomass plantations, next generation fisheries--while actually improving the ocean environment, through, perhaps, remediating global climate warming and preventing the formation of hurricanes.

Twenty latitude degrees above and below the equator is an ocean region currently considered to be a wet desert, for nothing much grows near the surface. This is because of a lack of nutrients. However, at 1000 meter depths is deep ocean water at 4 degrees Celsius with nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations, for example, respectively, at 100 times and 20 times greater than what is generally found at the surface. This is because life in the photic zone eventually settles at the ocean depths and decomposes in the exact ratio as is required for life at the surface. The deeper ocean is cold because of natural convection from the Arctic and Antarctica. Interestingly enough, marine biomass, certainly in the cellular form, is said to be from two to five times more efficient (in converting sunlight to mass) than any land crop (trees, grasses). Part of the reason is that land plants need to draw nutrients through a root sytem, while marine life can utilize the entire surface area contacting the ocean.

Natural upwelling brings some of this rich fluid to the surface in only one tenth of one percent of the ocean, where nearly half the seafood is harvested. If a means can be found to bring some of this deep ocean water to the surface, ocean ranches and farms can be supported, which would not need to be fed (the growth cycle would be closed), fertilized or irrigated. Another advantage is that the open ocean is generally considered to be free. The timing is ideal because all fisheries are now reported to be declining, at a time when demand is increasing because of population growth and changing nutritional trends. This resource also offers hope for the production of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Part 3 of this series will delve into Next Generation Fisheries.

It so turns out that the temperature differential between 1000 meter and surface waters can be utilized to bring huge quantities of water to the surface in a manner which sounds suspiciously like a perpetual motion machine. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC—see previous posting) has been developed to the stage where net positive electricity can be produced. Hawaii happens to be the site where most of this development has occurred, and the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority is home to more than 30 companies and research organizations supported by deep ocean water. Japan already has a dozen such facilities.

It is the total package of products, though, including seafood, biopharmaceuticals, green materials, biofuels, etc., that appears to have niche applications of commercial interest. In the very long term, there is reason to believe that each grazing OTEC plantship could form a city or, even, country.

In my 2003 Bruun Memorial Lecture to UNESCO in Paris, I proposed that the United Nations take a leading role in galvanizing Project Blue Revolution. There are important Law of the Sea and international political issues to be considered. There are today only 192 countries forming the UN. Someday, perhaps, a thousand OTEC-powered Blue Revolution platforms, each a nation in itself, could well be plying our oceans, providing clean and sustainable resources for Humanity in harmony with the ocean environment.

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Well, the Dow Jones Industrials soared 494 (+6.54%) to 8046, featuring a jump of more than 500 points in the closing hour. Yes, last night I finally placed my order for Microsoft, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, Boeing and Ultra Basic Materials. It is said that the announcement of Timothy Geithner (current New York Federal Bank president, and vice chairman of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee) as Obama's Treasury Secretary catalyzed this rally. Asia was up but Europe was down on Friday. Oil remained under $50 at $49.93/bbl. Gold leaped $56/toz to $801, just another sign that we are in for a long recession, so I would be worried about how low the DJI will yet go.

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Tropical Storm Anika is weakening and still projected to make an Australian landfall late Saturday.

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THE STORY OF OTEC

[The following is largely excerpted from Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth.]

The notion of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) was sparked by Jules Verne with his 1870 “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea,” but technically was proposed in 1881 by Jacques d’Arsonval, a French engineer, and his student, Georges Claude (famous for inventing the neon tube, but was sentenced to life in jail after World War II for collaborating with Germany), who in 1930 and again in 1935 failed in attempts to prove the concept off Cuba. J. Hilbert Anderson, founder of Sea Solar Power, advanced the technology, but never attained net positive. Finally, off Keahole Point on the Big Island of Oahu, Jim Wenzel in 1979 led a Lockheed team on a borrowed Federal government barge arranged by U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga to produce 18 kilowatts of power, the first time any group had produced more energy than went into the process.

I just happened to be working for Senator Matsunaga in D.C., so worked with Rick Woldin, a Congressional Fellow with the Senate Energy and National Resources Committee, to draft the first OTEC bill, which almost immediately passed the U.S. Congress and was signed into law by President Jimmy Carter. I like to give the credit to Rick, but, maybe it could have been me, for we predicted in the bill that 10,000 MW of OTEC power would be in operation by 1999.

In 1981, a Japanese consortium led by Tokyo Electric Power Company (I have an annual dinner with the leaders of this group) succeeded in feeding to the Nauru grid 120 kw of closed cycle OTEC power. Toshiba produced two 10 minute clips, Part I which can be viewed through OTEC News. You can also click on Part 2. Unfortunately, a hurricane wiped out the facility.

Well, I returned to Hawaii in 1982 and, with Paul Yuen, helped invent the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research (PICHTR), suggested by Senator Matsunaga and named by then Governor George Ariyoshi, who with future governor Ben Cayetano, chairman of the Hawaii Senate Ways and Means Committee, provided the funds. I’m pulling this out of the air, but my recollection is that PICHTR was able to convince the U.S. Department of Energy (largely influenced by Senator Dan Inouye and Congressman Dan Akaka) and the Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (through the efforts of Mitsuro Donowaki, Shinichi Nishimiya, Fujio Matsuda and George Ariyoshi) to provide up to $25 million for a team (Lloyd Trimble, Luis Vega, Andy Trenka, Steve Masutani, Gerard Nihous and associates) succeeded in 1992 with a 255 kw (gross) open cycle OTEC facility at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii on the Big Island, also providing freshwater.

India, aided by Saga University of Japan, made a 1 MW attempt in 2006, but had cold water pipe problems. Otherwise, most of the notoriety with the technology has been associated with announcements of projects on Diego Garcia (Department of Defense), various Pacific Islands (Department of Interior and Japan) and the Caribbean (Solar Sea Power), which has never attained fruition.

Now, however, Hawaii has again gained the spotlight with an announcement that Lockheed Martin, with the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), is designing and will build a 10 MW OTEC facility, most probably to feed electricity and freshwater to Honolulu. Doug Carlson has an OTEC blog providing details.

One final anecdote is that PICHTR, exactly 20 years ago, worked with ITRI to produce an $80 million multiple product OTEC study for Taiwan, led by Paul Yuen and my engineering team (same group as mentioned above). In our small way, then, we like to think we stimulated some interest in what could someday be the most important renewable energy resource for Hawaii and World. Maybe The Blue Revolution (see Chapter 4 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth) has finally started.
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The Dow Jones Industrials reached 8187 at midday today, but since then has mostly tumbled, now down 445 for the day to 7552. Whew, it was a good thind I didn’t purchase any stocks when the DJI fell below 8000 yesterday. Save for Norway, which stayed barely plus, the whole world fell, with the Japan Nikkei down 7% to 7703. It was just over 16,000 in December of 2007. In many ways, the DJI and JN track each other well. Crude oil crashed through the $50 floor, dropping $5.25 to $48.85/barrel. Gold at this writing is up $10/toz to $746.
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Wow, an early tropical cyclone named Anika, currently only at 46 MPH in the Indian Ocean is headed for an Australian landfall in two days. This is the first storm in the southern hemisphere. Nothing in the Atlantic or Pacific.

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HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE DETROIT AUTO BAILOUT

There is a crucial brinksmanship game going on, with General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (C) threatening bankruptcy if they don’t receive a $25 billion bridge loan and the people, jaded with bailouts, feeling that these companies deserve their fate. Caught in the middle are Congress and the White House, with Democrats leaning towards Detroit and Republicans not.

My blog of November 12 indicated that bankruptcy was not a smart strategy. Whether Chapter 7 or 11, automobiles sell a product that needs to be nurtured by that company for years to come. People felt reasonably comfortable flying a bankrupt United, for Mileage Plus was still in effect and the period of risk was short. Few would buy a car from a bankrupt manufacturer, especially when other companies are offering bargains and assured maintenance. If GM goes under, Ford and Chrysler will then, actually, gain in sales. Also, the United Auto Workers has already sacrificed rights and benefits in the recently signed contract, which will lead to labor cost/car on par in a couple of years with Toyota cars built in the U.S. Re-negotiation because of bankruptcy would not yield much more.

What do the polls say? Early on, three-fourths of Americans were opposed to government aid. Recent surveys indicate that concern is growing and there are new polls indicating that, perhaps, more support the bailout. However, the most prominent pro-help result came from a GM-subsidized Peter Hart Research Associates effort.

A complicating factor is that Congress has already passed a $25 billion loan to GM/F/C to develop next generation vehicles. Company representatives insist, however, that they fully need this sum, plus another $25 billion, more specifically to cover their daily losses. There are supporters in Congress who favor just carving out $25 billion from the already in effect $700 billion Wall Street rescue package for this latter application. But the Republican Administration and their congressional supporters argue that was not the legal intent, and, more importantly, all of the $700 billion will be required for financial institutions. Linked with all this are the Big Three lending arms that probably do qualify.

We were supposed to learn tomorrow, when the Senate was scheduled to vote on this matter, but Majority Leader Harry Reid postponed decision-making, so now, the sense is that this mess will be taken up next year when Democrats are more fully in control. Why are Democrats in favor of assistance? First, yes, they lean in the socialistic direction, but, more so, unions helped place them into office, and the matter of jobs comes into play. Financial Week has reported that unions spent $385 million to get Obama and other Democrats elected.
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The Dow Jones Industrials today crashed 427 to 7998 (-5%), with much of the drop occurring in the final hour. Well, as promised, I guess I must now re-invest in the same stocks I bought earlier this month. GM fell 10% and Ford 25%. The world markets also all lost value, save for Hong Kong and Norway, which barely stayed positive. Germany declined 7.56 %. Crude oil slightly fell to $53.18/barrel, with the Dated Brent Spot at $48.67. Gold was -$3/toz at $735.
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There are two tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, but not currently of much threat to population sites.
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THE WORLD ECONOMY IS WORSE THAN OURS

I updated my WALL-E and EVE posting of three days ago into WALL-E, EVE and Barack for The Huffington Post, which was published yesterday.

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So far this year, according to THE ECONOMIST, as of the day after the presidential elections, the stock market in Switzerland (SMI) has dropped 28.9%, Japan (Nikkei 225) was down 30.1% and the USA (Dow Jones Industrials) has declined 31.1%. These are the three BEST performing exchanges. The World average DROP was 40%, with France (CAC) -42.4%, Norway (OSEAX) -53.5%, India (BSE) -58.6, Venezuela (IBC) -59.5% and Turkey (ISE) -60.9%. BUT THE TWO WORST? CHINA (SSEB) -74.7% and RUSSIA (RTS) -63.8%. And, yes, they blame the USA for all their troubles. Hmm…maybe we’ve found a way to vex and hex our purported challengers.

Airline stocks have held up well, and so have energy companies. General Motors (GM, from 23 to 3) is only a shell of what it was at the first of the year, but Ford (in the 2 to 2.5 range), with violent swings, is largely unchanged. Best as I can tell, you can't today purchase Chrysler shares, for they are now mostly owned by Cerberus, an American equity firm.  Daimler today has zero ownership of the company. The next step would appear be GM gaining control from Cerberus of Chrysler. In 2005, GM and Ford talked about combining forces. Either one grand American auto firm or a three-company joint spinoff to produce next generation environmentally virtuous vehicles sounds reasonable, and the best option might well be both.

How are renewable energy companies doing? Terribly. RenewableEnergyWorld.com provides details. Go to http://www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com/rea/home and click on “Finance.” Their REW 40 Index shows that the range this year has been from 542 to 1284, with a latest price of 606. Thus, the year to date change is minus 51.4%. Companies such as Hoku Scientific, Siemens AG, China Wind Systems, General Electric and Ballard Power Systems are among the 40 companies. Gushan Environmental Energy Limited, a People’s Republic of China firm headquartered in Hong Kong, jumped 20% today. They are into biodiesel. I wouldn't get too excited about terrestrial biodiesel, though.

Oil stayed pretty much unchanged at $54.66/barrel, but the Dated Brent Spot crashed the $50/bbl barrier, and is now down to $49.20. Gold inched up a dollar to $737/toz.

No major ocean storms on the horizon.
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CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 16)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

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How are the Condemned Executed?

Early on, suffocation was the means, but the more humane dropping of the body from a sufficient height to dislocate the neck or sever the spinal cord was then instituted. There was a time when stones, swords and axes were used. Then firing squads and hanging became the termination actions of choice. There were also the Scottish Maiden and the Halifax Gibbet, instruments that crushed the neck by blunt force to take off the head.

In France, there was sentiment for ending life with minimal pain, so a committee was set up, with professor of anatomy, Joseph-Ignace Guillotin, credited with developing the concept of a falling triangular blade with a beveled edge. The device in 1792 became known as the guillotine in France and fallbeil (falling axe) in Germany, was universally used in Europe, and finally retired in 1977. Gas chambers were also used, but that is another story of the holocaust.

In the U.S., the gas chamber was also utilized, but the electric chair (EC) had a dreadful history and showed some bitter rivalry between Thomas Edison, an advocate of DC electricity, and George Westinghouse, who was responsible for AC currents, the eventual winner. In 1887, Edison held a public demonstration, setting up a 1,000 volt Westinghouse AC generator to execute a dozen animals on an electrified plate. The term “electrocution” was invented that day. It was gruesome, but the point was made that AC electricity was dangerous. Edison’s smear campaign did not work, but it did get the Westinghouse chair adopted for executions. In 1889, Westinghouse’s chair became law, but he refused to sell any AC generators for this purpose, and, even funded the appeals for the first so sentenced prisoners. Edison, through subterfuge, then provided the AC generators. The media referred to the process as being “Westinghoused.”

William Kemmler was the first to be executed in New York in 1890, and it wasn’t pretty. The first 17-second jolt did not kill him, so the voltage was increased, and on the second attempt, blood vessels ruptured and the body caught fire. It took eight minutes. He died. Westinghouse commented that they should have used an axe. Notable victims were Sacco and Vanzetti, Bruno Hauptman, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg and Ted Bundy. Nebraska is today the only state to solely use the electric chair, but the May 8, 2007 execution was stayed while the courts looked closer at the EC as cruel and unusual punishment.

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The Dow Jones Industrials sank almost 250, then turned positive for an hour or so, finally free falling during the last hour almost 200 to 8274, or minus 224 for the day. The final few minutes are getting more and more exciting...dangerously so. The world markets, save for Norway, Hong Kong and Japan, all declined a couple of percent. Crude oil declined $2/barrel to $55. Gold fell $5/toz to $738.

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Well, hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere is coming to an end, so I will stop reporting anything unless something happens in the Indian Ocean. It should be interesting if there are any south Atlantic hurricanes this coming year.

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CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 15)

How Does the Public Feel about the Death Penalty

Over the past two decades, the percent of Americans who thought that death should be the penalty for murder has vacillated between 49% and 61%. Life imprisonment has ranged between 29 and 47%. However, to the question, “favor or oppose death penalty for those convicted of murder,” the favor opinion from 1936 to 2004 had a low of 45% in 1965, rose to 80% in the 90’s and seems to be around 70% today. Opposition ranged between 13% and 43%, settling at 25% of recent. Thus, most Americans FAVOR the death penalty.

A curious shift has occurred to the question, “is the death penalty a deterrent to the commitment of murder,” sitting at 61% for yes in 1985, and dropping to 35% in 2004. The no response rose from 31% to 62%. So the average citizen does not think that the death penalty deters crime. They are wrong but don’t know it.

Thus, on June 15, 2007, the Death Penalty Information Center reported that 58% of Americans now want a national moratorium on executions. Executions rose in the 1990s, but has tailed off since then. The reason? John Grisham books, movies and TV shows. While 39% of the general population believe they should be disqualified from capital juries (because of their views on the subject), the figure for African Americans is 68%.

Around the world:

o 55% of Brazilians support the death penalty, a 14 year high.
o 29% of Finns;
o 42 % of French favor reinstating the death penalty;
o 81% of Japanese; and
o 28% of New Zealanders want to reinstate the death penalty.

In general, support for the death penalty is dropping globally.

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There are a couple of minor storms in the Indian Ocean and two in the West Pacific, but no hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones are expected.

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Well, will the bear market soon go into hibernation? With the Dow Jones Industrials at 8497, we're still not quite down to 8000. Is even 7000 now in sight? Even though Thursday saw the third highest jump (552), the DJI sank 5% for the week. This coming week, a whole host of companies will announce revenue declines, for people are not buying, making Christmas looking gloomy. Investors like stability, so Republicans speaking against a Detroit bailout and the international economists meeting this weekend not announcing anything substantive only omens more volatility. The DJI Futures are looking red, so a continuing downtrend looms Monday morning, at least. Boeing finally overcame strike threats, so not all is bad. Plus, worldwide futures are green.

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WALL-E and EVE

What are WALL-E and EVE doing on the right? Well, stay tuned.

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The troubled assets relief program (TARP) is morphing into things unexpected. Detroit, the auto industry, wants some of the $700 billion, and today, Phoenix, Philadelphia and Atlanta, representing cities, made a case to share in this largesse, arguing that public welfare makes the most sense, and mayors were at the ground level to immediately put people to work. Next, of course, the Terminator, gaining the full support of all states to manage the funds, as California, in particular, is in terrible shape, only a step or two away from bankruptcy.

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Wall Street has become the big, bad villain these days. They need some positive public relations, so what about something so far-fetched as the U.S. Senate convening in 2009 with 60 senators, meaning no filibuster. With a visionary as POTUS (President of the United States), real change can come. So let's fantasize a bit.

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In an inspired move supported by all, including the general populace, President Obama and our new Congress agree on the Economic Vitalization Edification (EVE) Act of 2009, endowing $2500 to each person living in the country (yes, maybe also illegal immigrants, but not tourists), with a stipulation that, if they purchase anything, it must be made in America (advocated in HuffPo article, Buy American, Again), and, create a Green Wall Street instrument, for now, called Wall-E, no, not from Chevy Chase's WALLEY WORLD, but that underdog robot from the movie, WALL-E (Waste Allocation Load Lifter Earth-class), with the E, of course, standing for a clean environment.

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This Wall-E will represent a segment of the stock market only for environmentally enhansive companies. The Big 3, for example, would need to spin off corporate entities focused on renewable energy powered vehicles. Yes, this sounds awfully close to that lovable Waste Allocation Load Lifter Earth-class, WALL-E, and the love of his life, Extra-terrestrial Vegetation Evaluator, EVE, so get Steve Jobs and Disney somehow involved in the marketing of the concept.

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, published last year, predicted that oil would drop to $50/barrel, and the Brent Spot Price this week made it down to $51/bbl. On cue, T. Boone Pickens has apparently, for now, abandoned his wind farm efforts, supposedly because credit is tight, but, let's face it, $50 oil significantly raises the risk factor, the deadly virus for renewable energy projects.

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So, the next economic rescue package should focus on saving these Green programs because we all know that when the world financial crisis is overcome, oil prices will zoom pass $100/bbl, perhaps even up to $200 in five years. If these sustainable energy projects die now, it will take years for many of them to recover. The corporate giants will need to develop start-up firms to take on this challenge, for we know how constraining a stodgy corporate board can be. We can use something like WALL-E and EVE to save the Nation and World.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 350 points, then, at midday, like yesterday, began a climb, this time up 450. The DJI then crashed 438 at the bell to 8497, down 346 for the day. World markets virtually all rose a bit. The price of oil is now at $57/barrel, a fall of $1.20, with the Dated Brent Spot back down to $51/bbl. Gold is up to $750/toz.

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All quiet in the ocean.

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CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 14)

Capital Punishment and the World

One of the bullets above implied that the U.S. is the only country that executes. This reference was to international tribunals, which have tended not to carry out the death penalty on even the most heinous of crimes. Japanese war criminals? They were judged by the International Military Tribunal for the Far East or Khabarovsk War Crime Trials, and 1000 were sentenced to death. Nuremberg was a military tribunal. Military trials can be terminal. Adolph Eichmann? He was tried in an Israeli court and hanged.

While there were only 18 nations prohibiting the death penalty in 1977, today, 89 countries have totally abolished this practice, 10 use it only under very special circumstances, and 30 others have not used it during the past decade. In comparison, 38 U.S. states do not allow death. China carried out from 1,010 to 8,000 executions in 2006, depending on the source, as compared to 53 in the USA. Ten years ago, 40 countries had executions, compared to 26 in 2006. Thus, while the trend is towards more clemency, the U.S. is not the only country that terminates the life of a wanton convict.
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The Dow Jones Industrials fell below 8000 today, but beginning midday, started a climb of 911, or plus 553 for the day, and ended up at 8835, or +6.67%. Exxon and Chevron alone accounted for 20% of this increase. This was the third best day, ever. It was a kind of herd mentality, hoping that the G20 meeting on the economy this weekend does something useful. If that's true, it's no wonder that we are in trouble. The world was mixed, with Hong Kong down 5.5% and Japan up 4%. Crude oil also rose, $1.31/barrel to $59.55. This sudden jump must mean that investors think the recession might not be as bad as feared. I had planned to leap in as the 8000 level was breached, but could not because it takes at least 4 days for E-Trade to confirm any electronically transferred sum from my bank into my account with them. Missed the moment again. Hopefully the market will sink another 1000 through next week. Gold gained $21/toz to $734.

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No ocean storms worth mentioning.

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BUY AMERICAN, AGAIN

Earlier this week, the Huffington Post published an article I wrote entitled, BUY AMERICAN, AGAIN. You can read this posting plus comments by clicking on the title.

I've been thinking about how best for Detroit to recover and thought that maybe bankruptcy might be a useful strategy, for the management could then re-negotiate wages. Currently, Toyota pays $1400 less to workers in Kentucky than General Motors is shelling out in Detroit. First, that is not a whopping difference, but, further, it turns out that the deal the Big 3 made with the United Auto Workers means that by 2011, labor costs will be about the same. However, Japan pays $1000/car less on labor. More so still, consider, then, the future of Chinese cars.

So, what, then, about the American auto industry, which supposedly is responsible for 10% of jobs in the country? General Motors reported that they could go bankrupt next year on cash flow alone, having lost $73 billion since 2004. The reaction to this crisis is for all the auto companies to cut production, cut management positions, cut everything they can. I guess they are trying to show D.C. that they are serious about their problems. As much as they are responsible for their predicament, the national economy is at that critical tipping point, and the crash of such an important industry could well trigger a depression.

It is with these thoughts that I wrote "Buy American, Again." Rather than, as in the $700 billion Wall Street rescue, why not try something different? Let each person help make a difference. What about giving the money to the people, as will occur anyway with the second stimulus package. The President can make a strong plea to buy something American...not only cars, but anything made in the country. Many will purchase passenger vehicles, for there are now almost as many of them as citizens (250 million versus 300 million). Perhaps 15 million vehicles will be purchased next year, or as much as $400 billion in sales. The subsequent feedback was not particularly supportive.  Responders were more concerned about being forced to buy American.  They wanted the more personally selfish freedom of choice, rather than making a decision  for the common good.  Somehow, as antithetical as Buy American is even to my own beliefs, I think there is something here that deserves to be pursued.

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Well, the Dow Jones Industrial crumbled further, down 410 to 8284, not paying any attention to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's consumer bailout press conference. World markets also uniformly fell.

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Crude oil dropped $3.52/barrel to $55.81 and the Dated Brent Spot price is $51.20, very close to my predicted $50/barrel, when, unfortunately, many renewable energy projects will be cancelled. Worse, the urgency President-Elect Obama showed about energy will now be delayed for his focus on the economy and a national medical plan. T. Boone Pickens mentioned on CNBC today that oil prices have essentially bottomed. However, he, now of wind power fame, said a couple of months ago that oil would not drop below $100/barrel. He also announced delaying his ambitious wind farm effort. He blamed the credit market.

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Tropical Depression Paloma is dissipating north or Cuba.

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