CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 13)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

-

The Death Penalty Works

In 2005, there were 16,692 cases of murder in the U.S. There were 60 executions.

On June 11, 2007, Robert Tanner of the Chicago Sun-Times reported that the death penalty acts as a deterrent to murder.317 Further, each execution saves from three to 18 lives. Naci Mocan, an economics professor at the University of Colorado at Denver, who opposes the death penalty, was one of the authors of one of those studies. He said that each execution saved five innocent lives.

Since 2001, there have been a dozen such papers, and they ALL say the death penalty deters crime, as for example:

o 2003 Emory University conclusion that each execution deters an average of 18 murders and

o 2006 University of Houston study that the Illinois moratorium on executions in 2000 led to 150 additional homicides over four years.

The acceptance of this notion—that executions deter crime—has significant ramifications, as in 1975, Isaac Ehrlich’s analysis that each execution saved eight lives influenced the Supreme Court to end the death penalty moratorium, even though a National Academy of Sciences panel decided that Ehrlich’s conclusions were flawed.

Predictably, critics responded:

o there were profound mistakes in the methodology so the results are untrustworthy;

o we don’t have enough data to say anything; and

o this is an open question.

The latter two opinions, actually, came from a very scholarly 2006 paper by John Donahue and Justin Wolfers, published in the Stanford Law Review.

Well, does the death penalty work or not? It works, crime is deterred, according to some scholars.
-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 177 to 8694, or 2%, with General Motors ($2.92/share) now at a 65 year low. How significant is this? Well, 1943 was during World War II and the DJI were not much over 100. Except for Sweden and Norway, the rest of the world markets fell from 2 to 4 percent. Crude oil slipped 58 cents to $58.68/barrel. Gold fell $13 to $732/toz.

-

Paloma is a tropical depression at 30 MPH, and will move from the north coast of Cuba to the Bahamas, but will continue to weaken.

-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 12)

The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

-

The Death Penalty Does Not Work

With the exception of assassins, most people who kill are not in a rational frame of mind. These murders generally occur on impulse.

The reality is that:

o While executions in the U.S. from 1976-1996 increased from 0 to 60, the homicide rate per 100,000 remained constant at just under 10.

o About 80% of criminologists believe that executions do not have a deterrent effect.

o Two-thirds of U.S. police chiefs do not believe that the death penalty reduces murders.

o A 1998 United Nations study concluded that executions do not deter.

What does work is a combination of reduction in drug use, a better economy with more jobs, simplification of court rules and longer prison sentences. In fact, in 1996, those states with the death penalty had an average murder rate of 7.1 per 100,000, and those which did not had a rate of 3.6. In Canada, the homicide rate dropped 27% after the death penalty was abolished.

In September 2000, a New York Times survey showed that during the last 20 years, the homicide rate in states with the death penalty was 48 to 110 percent higher than in states without the death penalty. This was reported in a press release by Amnesty International USA, where “action for human rights” and hope for humanity” are their themes. It went on further to state that the threat of execution at some future date is unlikely to enter the minds of those acting under the influence of drugs and/or alcohol, or in a grip of fear or rage, or is mentally retarded.

-

Are you convinced, then, that there should be no death penalty? Well, that is one of the ambiguities of the judicial system. Tomorrow, a case is made for the death penalty.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials jumped up 200, then had a low of minus 187, finally settling -73 to 8870, which is 33% lower than on January 1 of this year. The DJI has ranged from 7883 to 13780 this year. World markets all went up today, more so in Asia than Europe. Crude oil rose $1.28/barrel to $62.32 and gold went up $9/toz to $746.

-

Hurricane Paloma attained Category 4 speeds, then hit Cuba as a Category 3, surprisingly killing no one (apparently, as of this writing), but causing vast property damage. Now a tropical depression, Paloma is expected to weaken further and go in any direction she wants.

-

THE FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT...BUT THE JOURNEY WILL BE PAINFUL

In the Year 2100, Hawaii will be an energy paradise:

o We will be energy self-sufficient with our winds, sun and ocean providing 100% of our electricity.
o Our ground transport will be include plug-in electrical vehicles, direct methanol (from biomass) fuel cell cars and biodiesel from marine algae.
o The Blue Revolution will be in full blossom, with renewable marine energy, green biomaterials, sustainable fisheries, marine biomass plantations and exciting new habitats on grazing platforms.
o Aviation will be powered by jet fuel from algae and the latest hydrogen jetliner.

However, the pathway to independence will be rocky and difficult, for the air travel solution is at least 50 years away. If oil prices can be maintained under $100/barrel, we will slowly, and arduously, get there. If crude jumps to $200/barrel in two to five years, Hawaii’s economy will calamitously suffer worse than virtually anywhere else. There are serious people already planning for what could well become pure survival.

An almost expected bad case scenario is that we will muddle along to replace oil/coal with renewables for electricity. It will be expensive, but some combination of ethanol, biodiesel and methanol will ultimately partner with plug-in transport for terrestrial applications. That was the easy part.

Our economy is almost totally dependent on tourism. Already, the recession has reduced travel 20%. This condition will probably worsen a bit, but the national and world economy will recover, and China/India will then truly expand oil consumption. If petroleum reaches $200/barrel, as predicted by Goldman-Sachs, in combination with Peak Oil, jet fuel will become so expensive that only the very rich will be able to afford a trip to Hawaii. Aviation fuel from coal or oil shale will not be possible if global climate warming is real. Are we doomed in this 50th State? Can a replacement be found for jet fuel?

Let us look at the positives:

Hawaii-born and reared Barack Obama will become the next President of the United States. U.S. Senator Daniel will become Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, while retaining his chairmanship of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. Propitiously, an innovative next generation renewable hydrogen aircraft patent was filed last week, and the inventor would like to use Hawaii as his developmental base.

Thus, while the next decade or two will still be painful, there might be hope, for what better than a dire emergency to galvanize action? If, because Hawaii will have unprecedented power in D.C., we are selected to lead an Apollo-like effort, in partnership with Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Airbus and Mitsubishi, to develop the next generation hydrogen aircraft, that will add a billion dollars to our economy and hopefully produce a commercial plane capable of flying on hydrogen in ten years. This is ridiculously optimistic, but not impossible. Sometime before the year is over, I hope to present a full report on this program.
-
Hurricane Paloma, at 140 MPH, is possibly the strongest Atlantic storm ever in November. Lenny in 1999 was of similar strength. Paloma is expected to weaken a bit, making landfall on Cuba early Sunday, and continue to lose strength after returning to the ocean, turning slightly west, then dissipating. Tropical Storm Maysak is at 50 MPH, and meandering in the South China Sea. While still heading for China, it is expected to turn south and weaken.
-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 10)

The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

-

On the Morality and Efficacy of Death Sentences

The ACLU has eight objections to the death penalty:

o unfair,
o irreversible;
o barbarous,
o unjustified retribution,
o costs more than incarceration,
o not a deterrent to capital crimes,
o less popular than the alternatives, and
o inhuman and anachronistic.

Others say, the death penalty:

o violates America’s founding principles;
o is the hallmark of authoritarian regimes;
o creates more victims;
o is arbitrary and capricious;
o is racist, classist and financially contingent;
o deprives us of our own human dignity;
o denies our ability to change;
o is cruel and denigrating;
o is unanimously excluded in international jurisdictions; and
o as no one is beyond redemption, it detracts from the transformative power of God.

Much of the above is moralistic, but let us look at some of them.


Life in Prison is Cheaper than a Penalty of Death

While at first glance it seems that it should be cheaper to swiftly inject a lethal dose than to keep a lifer in air conditioned comfort, there are sound arguments that the added cost of capital trials is greater than a simple one maintaining the prisoner in jail. Duke University estimated that death penalty trials take 3-5 times longer than typical murders, plus, they are invariably followed by appeals. It costs North Carolina $2.16 million more per execution trial than one for a life sentence. At $100/day, this would keep a prisoner for nearly 60 years.

Thus, the matter of deterrence, perhaps, becomes more important. That, and the diminishing need for trials, if economics were of consequence. (This the first of several parts to come analyzing whether the death penalty works or not, plus trends on adjudicated termination.)

-

The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 253 to 8949. Nearly 200 points came in the final 45 minutes...after the first press conference of Barack Obama, where he, essentially, said nothing, with his economic advisors behind him. Both GM and Ford reported on their third quarters, and the news was disconcerting, especially for GM, which indicated that without governmental assistance, it will go bankrupt next year (if you read between the lines). The national unemployment rate went up from 6.1% to 6.5%, with 1.2 million jobs lost this year. So why did the stock market increase? All the above was already anticipated the past couple of days. Much of the world went up, with two notable exceptions being Japan's Nikkei dropping 3.6% and Sweden's OSSX All Share down 6%. Something seems to be happening in those Scandinavian countries.Crude stayed largely unchanged at $61/barrel, with the Dated Brent Spot at $57/bbl. Gold rose $8/toz to $737.

-

Paloma is now a hurricane with sustained 105 MPH winds, and will make a Cuban landfall on Sunday. Tropical Storm Maysak, now at 45 MPH, is moving towards China and should yet strengthen, but it remains unclear where it will really go, although a wild guess is that Maysak will loop around and head towards Viet Nam.

-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 9)

About the American Civil Liberties Union

In 1920 the American Civil Liberties Union was founded by Crystal Eastman, a lawyer who helped write the Equal Rights Amendment (women suffrage), and Roger Nash Baldwin, who served as the executive director until 1950. It is reported to have more than half a million members.

Very simply, the ACLU provides assistance when civil liberties are at risk, including religious freedom. It tends to attack Republicans more, but, of course, because of their beliefs. It has defended the Ku Klux Klan, neo-Nazi organizations, the North American Man/Boy Love Association and Lt. Colonel Oliver North. The ACLU lost the Scopes Trial and was fined $100; filed an amicus curiae (legal opinion) brief in the Brown v. Board of Education trial, which led to the ban on racial segregation; and was the first major national organization to call for the impeachment of President Richard Nixon.

This organization receives nearly $100 million each year in donations, almost 90% from the general public. It actually rejected $1.5 million from the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations in 2004 because there was a stipulation prohibiting the underwriting of terrorism, which the ACLU viewed as a threat to civil liberties, a remarkable point of view. Let me repeat, the ACLU refused money because it believes terrorism should not be prohibited. Well, that might be skewing the sensibility, but the point is that the ACLU leans too much in the direction of freedom and liberty, even for terrorists and sexual deviants.

In the State of Hawaii, and much of the nation, the labor unions were essential to bring equality to the masses. They still have an important role to play, but are they being smart about their current mission? Times have changed. The ACLU, I fear, is suffering the same obsolescence when it comes to crime. For example, they are continuously on the back of Sheriff Joe Arpaio (who is later suggested as a simple solution to minimize crime), always happens to be on the side of the criminal, and exact considerable cost to government, which means taxpayers money. I would like to plead for the ACLU to mature into a more responsible organization, and, now and then, consider the innocent public as your primary constituency.

Convicted criminals have certain restrictions in society. They have legally nullified their contract with society and are, therefore, at risk. Here, ACLU steps in, for the convict is still human. If some understanding can be reached that government has the right to treat the offender in a manner that maintains reasonable health, at minimal expense to the community, this will provide the ACLU with more resources to scrutinize the Patriot Act and sundry other more important issues.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 443 to 8696, or 929 (nearly 10%) in two days. Only 696 to go before I might jump in, and maybe not. Norway remained essentially unchanged, but the whole world fell: Hong Kong, Japan, France and Germany around 7%, slightly worse than the 5% DJI slip. The world automobile industry is in jeopardy, for even Toyota just announced a net income decline of two-thirds, with Ford and GM are scheduled to report tomorrow. I thought the bottom might be months away, but just before close on Friday, November 7, could well be opportune. The NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Intermediate) Crude Future dropped $4.53/barrel to $60.77, with the Dated Brent (North Sea) Spot now at $57.20/bbl.

-

Tropical Storm Paloma is now at 63 MPH and is heading north, soon turning northeast, and should strengthen to over 100 MPH just before striking Cuba this weekend. It is possible that a tropical storm could form just west of the Philippines and head towards China.

-

ARBOR DAY AND THE VENUS SYNDROME

Well, the post-election hangover resulted in the Dow Jones Industrials crashing 486 to 9139. Who said we are over this economic slump. In fact, I predicted that 8000 would be the bottom, and we have 1139 points to go. So, awaiting that period, I thought I would be prepared this time with my E-Trade account, but learned that I had to go through a few more hoops before activating it with more money. The last time with Ameritrade I lost a few days and missed that moment. Let's see how long it takes this time, although I don't think the nadir will be reached for weeks, if not months. The Pacific-Asian markets all rose (Japan Nikkei up 4.5%) today, while, save for a couple of Scandanavian countries, the European stock exchanges mostly dropped (German TECDAX down 4.5%). Crude sunk more than $5/barrel to $65.30, as it looks like OPEC will only reduce production by 400,000 barrels/day. Gold slipped $22/toz to $738.

-

In case you didn't know, Hawaii is this week celebrating Arbor Day. President Theodore Roosevelt proclaimed this occasion on April 10, 1907. While April is the traditional month, Hawaii picked November 3, and will be holding ceremonies this year from November 6 to 8. Traditionally, children plant trees and sing songs.

-

HECO began their custom of giving away seedlings in 1993, which this year can be obtained on Saturday at a variety of locations. Interesting that in the early days I did pick up a couple of, I think, eucalyptus seedlings, and planted them on my roof. I can't imagine how they procreate so young, but I haven't been able to completely eradicate what, at that early stage, looks and grows like weeds. Maybe I picked up some superweeds by mistake.

-

This brings up my latest Huffington Post article on THE VENUS SYNDROME REVISITED. A couple of years ago, scientists from the Max Plank Institute in Heidelberg, Germany, reported Trees implicated in greenhouse gas conundrum. In short, they said that 30% of the methane produced in the world came from trees, and it is of course true that one molecule of methane is at least 20 times worse for global warming than one of carbon dioxide. We knew that dead trees under certain conditions decayed to produce some methane, but live trees naturally emitting this gas was most shocking and controversial. The Institute immediately released a press release saying that trees, on balance, are good. However, the science on "growing trees and resultant methane contributing to the Greenhouse Effect" has not yet been fully answered.

-

That would indeed be the ultimate irony if trees turn out to be a terrible contributor to climate warming and Teddy Roosevelt is thus blamed for initiating Arbor Day. Hmm...I wonder if 1907 is when global warming began to be accelerated. Nah, can't be.

-

Tropical Depression Polo in the Pacific is dissipating, but Tropical Depression Seventeen, now at 30 MPH, just formed near Guatemala, will move northwest, then northeast, probably in the meanwhile growing into a hurricane in two to three days, threatening Cuba.

-

WHERE ARE WE ON THIS DAY WHEN WE WILL DETERMINE OUR FUTURE?

I thought this was a holiday, but, the Federal government is at work and Wall Street is alive and well, with a surging Dow Jones Industrials, which jumped 305 to 9625, the highest close in more than a month. Crude oil leaped $6 to just under $70/barrel on production cuts by Saudi Arabia. Gold is up $37/toz to $764.

First of all, on October 15 I predicted that Obama will become our next president. Well, I will say it again: BARACK OBAMA WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA. Certainly more people will vote today than, perhaps, ever before. That’s good for America and our democratic way of life. For the first time I know, the people –you and I—are feeling that we are now part of the process.

I’m watching CNN and jumping around the relevant channels, actually tracking how the elections are coming along. I started at 7AM, and plan to do this all day and night. This has never ever happened before. This is like the longest home “tailgate” party I’ve ever had, with all the imbibibles.

Here is the current state of the world and my latest predictions:

1. The stocks I bought can be quantified, so here are the cold facts (remember, they were all sort of purchased at the beginning of this month):

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Purchased....Today... % Increase

a. Microsoft....................$23.64.....$23.50
b. General Electric..........$19.85.....$20.77
c. Lockheed Martin.........$84.95.....$85.91
d. Boeing.......................$51.90.....$53.62
e. Ultra Basic Materials....$21.15.....$23.50

AVERAGE......................$40.30.....$41.46.....+2.3%

Good start.

2. The price of oil will storm past $100/barrel in 2009. Will it hit $200 in three to five years? If the world economy quickly recovers, yes. However, there is a self-checking mechanism at play here, for as oil jumps, the economy will be negatively affected, and demand should drop. Thus, it is possible that the only way oil can reach $200/bbl is for some significant political event to occur. Under any circumstance, Hawaii will remain in terrible shape because if the recession continues, the tourist rate will continue to drop, and tourism is the dominant revenue source for the state. If general recovery occurs at the international level, the price of oil will skyrocket again, jet fuel will become very expensive and only the rich will afford a trip to Hawaii. Easing of visa requirements will enhance South Korean travel, and if the same can occur for China, that would minimize the hardship. This terrible state of affairs will continue for a decade and longer. The quicker some alternative can be developed for jet fuel, the greater will be the hope for the state by 2020. Will the sustainable hydrogen dirigible be this answer?

3. How bad is the American economy? Not good, but better than most of the world. The following from data available today:

Country........% year to date drop of global stock markets

UK...............31
USA (S&P)...34
France.........37
Germany......38
Japan..........44
Singapore....45
(Russia........70--sketchy data)
China..........75

4. Investments in renewable energy will depend on the cost of petroleum and the reality of global warming. If the price of oil returns to $100/bbl and higher, significant expansion will occur. If oil drops closer to $50/bbl, then most of the mega projects will be cancelled. In any case, because Congress re-validated the tax breaks just before adjourning, wind power will boom, the electrical delivery systems will be upgraded and plug-in electric cars will gain in prominence. In the longer term, as ethanol will decline, biofuels will prove to be non-competitive and hydrogen will remain too expensive, biomethanol (methanol from the gasification and catalysis of biomass) will begin to take over (in a decade), largely dependent on the development of a direct methanol fuel cell for vehicular applications. Aviation will remain in jeopardy for decades due to the continuing increase in jet fuel prices. Airlines will consolidate, as will American automobile companies.

5. If, against all odds, global warming is proven to be fallacious, then coal and oil shale will become bonanzas, for we are the Saudi Arabia of these fossil fuels. Windpower should continue to expand, but other solar and biofuel options will only serve a transitional role to offset high oil prices.
-
Tropical Storm:Polo is continuing to move west-northwest, but will soon begin to move mostly west. Still with 40 MPH winds, it will dissipate in four days and later pass south of the Big Island as a remnant.
-

CHAPTER 1: CRIME AND WARS (Part 8)

Prisons

The world prison population in 2003 was 8.75 million, which is a little more than a tenth of one percent of the world population. The number of inmates in the United States now exceeds 2 million. This is particularly interesting, for with 5 percent the world population, the U.S. has almost one quarter the number of citizens in prison, which is curiously close to the disproportionate rate at which we use energy. We have the highest incarceration rate in the world at 686 per 100,000. Worse, 7 million of us—one in every 32 Americans—were either in jail or on parole at the end of 2005.

In 2005, America added about 1,000 new inmates each week, increasing the prison population to 2.2 million (726 prisoners per 100,000 people), or almost 1% of this society. However, 62% are not yet convicted, as they are awaiting trail. Actually, the situation is worse, for 4.8 million adults were on probation or parole in 2003, and 40% of them will again be jailed someday. Men are ten times more likely to be in prison. Expectedly, but still shocking, 11.9% of black males in the 25-29 age group are in jail, with, in comparison, 3.9% Hispanic and 1.7% white.

While China has 1.43 million (119 per 100,000) incarcerated, they have four times more people than the U.S. The U.K. has the highest rate in the European Union, at 139/100,000. In south central Asia (including India), the figure is 54/100,000, or less than a tenth that of the U.S. However, prison populations are growing worldwide. Is there a better way?

In terms of jails (per 1000 population):

o #1 Maldives 2.2
o #2 Czech Republic 2.1
o #3 Papua NG 1.7
o #4 Hong Kong 1.5
o #9 Dominica 0.014
o #22 United States 0.005
o #50 Thailand 0.002
o #62 Kazakhstan 0.0001

Nearly 10% of all prisoners are there for life. In 2005, that were 127,677 inmates, an increase of 83% since 1992. Let's see, now, if we could somehow eliminate this burden...whoops, I'm getting ahead of myself.

In 2001 (most recent U.S. Department Justice analysis--governmental crime statistics tend to be notoriously tardy), the average cost of an inmate was $62, which should be about $75/prisoner in 2007. This sum means a tax to each citizen of about $125/year, or in the range of $500 for each family of four. Your taxes, of course, pay for prisoners suffering in this largely air-conditioned comfort. When you add the total correctional expenditures, each family contributes about $1200/year. Most actually welcome this tolerable safety tax. But there must be a better way.

Any poll will show that the general population applauds more policemen and placing more criminals in jails. Here I go again, but I disagree. There is a better way…immoral, yes…depraved, maybe, but as Al Jolson might have said, “you ain’t seen nothing yet.” The ideas are not mine. Some came through sardonic or facetious columnists, such as Rick Hamada of Midweek: remove eyes of car thieves so they cannot steal another car, commit a rape and provide the victim’s family five minutes in a room with baseball bats, cut hands off burglars, etc. Okay, he was not serious, but there are extremes, and I will advocate a particularly ghastly one, later.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials did not do much today, awaiting the presidential election tomorrow, slipping 5 to 9320. The rest of the world, too, is waiting, although the Japan Nikkei went up nearly 5%. Crude was stuck at $64/barrel.

-

Well, what's a few dollars. I went ahead with my recommendations and purchased:

-

Microsoft $24.64

General Electric $19.85

Lockheed Martin $84.95

Boeing $51.90

UYM $21.15

-

I can't be so gauche as to say how many shares, but you can be assured that they were all at least in double digits. I bought Microsoft and GE because I said they looked good in an earlier posting, and GE makes wind energy conversion devices (GE actually "invented" the first modern wind power system--see page 64 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, for the company of Charles Brush, the inventor, merged with Thomas Edison's company, which went on to form GE) Lockheed Martin interested me because they will make or break the development of ocean thermal energy conversion, and my vast investment will no doubt spur them to success. Boeing seemed worthy, first, because they just got over their terrible strike, but more importantly, because they have communicated with me in the past on hydrogen jetliners. For my next feat of magic, I plan to assist a group accelerate a next generation aviation system, which will run on hydrogen. LMT, in the form of Willis Hawkins and Dan Brewer, was, in 1979, particularly instrumental in lobbying for the inclusion of aviation in Senator Spark Matsunaga's Hydrogen R&D Act. Finally, Ultra Basic Materials, because a friend told me to invest in derivatives. I hope I understood what he meant, and I trust UYM is something like that. Anyway, I will use November 1 as the start date for each stock and I will keep you informed over time on how these investments are growing. You got to think positively!

-

Tropical Storm Polo formed off Mexico, and now at 40 MPH, seems headed straight west northwest towards Hawaii. Over the next day or two, it will strengthen to 50 MPH, but dissipate before getting close to Hawaii. Being a small storm, it could well become a remnant even earlier.

-

BOOK SIGNING AT BORDERS

I had a wonderful book signing at the Ward Center Borders.  This was a couple of months ago, but I'm experimenting with inserting photos in my blog.  On the right with me are Fujio Matsuda and John Wiltshire.  Thanks Fudge and John for showing up, and I understand we are having dinner on Monday.

CHAPTER 1: CRIME AND WARS (Part 7)

The following excerpt is from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

Status of Drug Control

The enforcement is relatively simple: prevent growth, seize product, exterminate (make that, legally, arrest and convict) suppliers, educate the youth, treat users the first time and revert to more odious punishment subsequently. The White House in 2006 reported that violent crime, homicides and property crime dropped from 2003 to 2004, except for drug abuse violations, which increased. The FBI reported in 2007 that murder and robberies were up for the second year in row, as mentioned in the previous section, so illegal drug use must be increasing.

The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, though, reported in mid 2007 that the world drug situation has been stabilized and brought under control. U.S. Drug Czar, John Walters, agreed. Sure, but the United Nations indicated in September of 2006 that the Afghan opium crop jumped 59% that year, for opium is 35% of the local economy, and American Ambassador William Wood said in July of 2007 that the Karzai government destroyed nearly 50,000 acres (about 10% of the cultivated acreage) of poppies this year, yet the opium crop set another record. The key is understanding what is being said. Simply, “under control” means not wildly out of control.

We do have a problem. The U.S. Department of Justice reports that 80% of the increase in the federal prison population from 1985 to 1995 was due to drug convictions. Is there a better way to control this problem other than sending them to jail? Yes, something called "Three Strikes and You're Dead"...but that is still to come.
-

Gold is now at $724/toz, experiencing the largest one month drop in 28 years. With recession looming, why isn't the value increasing? Well, the conventional wisdom is that the American dollar has strengthened, as it took $1.60 to the Euro on July 15, and is now at $1.27. However, in that same period, the Japanese Yen exchange rate increased from $0.00935 to $0.01025, so I'm a bit confused. Oh, by the way, commodities had their LARGEST one month decline in 56 years, so something startling is happening.

-

Well, my blog earlier this week said stock values should now be attractive purchases, so, if you have any flexibility, Microsoft, General Electric and Johnson & Johnson, as mere examples, looked good. So, I tried to access my internet accounts with E-Trade and Ameritrade, and found out that just trying to place money from my bank into those companies took several days. Five days later, when the market has somewhat rebounded, I'm now able to make a move. I plan to buy MSFT, GE and UYM before Monday. What happened to JNJ and what is UYM? A colleague who should know said, don't get into individual stocks, consider derivatives representing an investment area, so I picked this particular entity, Ultra Basic Metals, because it is a basic material composite and was as high at 110 in June, and is now at 25 (it was down to 20, so already has recovered some). The recession should keep demand mediocre, but I'm thinking the long term when the world economy eventually will improve. JNJ kept its value relatively well over this period, so there was little upside. I should warn you, if anyone is tempted to follow suit, for I still have bunkrupt Enron and United Air stock certificates. Let's see how well I do this time around.

-

No major storms in view.

-