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Saturday, October 11, 2008

For next few weeks I will provide excerpts from Book 2, SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity (http://simplesolutionsbook2.com/). Here is the Table of Contents for Chapter 1.

INTRODUCTION.. 10
Background. 10
Colors. 12
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CHAPTER 1: ENDING CRIME AND WAR FOREVER.. 15
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Black and White: Crime and Punishment / War and Peace. 15
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The End of Crimes. 18
History of Crime. 18
Crime Statistics. 19
Drugs. 22
Opium and Heroin. 23
Cocaine, Marijuana and Ice. 24
Status of Drug Control 26
Prisons. 26
About the American Civil Liberties Union. 28
On the Morality and Efficacy of Death Sentences. 28
Life in Prison is Cheaper than a Penalty of Death. 29
The Death Penalty Does Not Work. 30
The Death Penalty Works. 30
Capital Punishment and the World. 31
How Does the Public Feel about the Death Penalty. 32
How are the Condemned Executed?. 32
The Seven Minute Solution: Lethal Injection. 33
Nitrogen: The Next Generation. 34
Draco the Lawgiver 35
The Three Strikes Law.. 35
The Singapore Solution to Crime. 36
The Simple Solution to Crime. 37
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The End of World Wars. 40
World War Trends. 40
Civilizational Trends. 44
What about the United States of America?. 45
The Most Powerful Nation on Earth, Ever?. 46
Why are Americans so Despised?. 47
President George Bush, #43. 49
Bush’s Axis of Evil 51
About Iraq. 57
Then there is Iran. 59
What about North Korea. 61
Then the Rest of the Terrorist World. 62
Let Me Add Israel 63
But, Darn It, America is the Best Country. 64
Japan, the European Union and India. 68
What About Russia?. 68
Peace with the People’s Republic of China?. 70
Weapons of Mass Destruction. 75
How to Make a Dirty Bomb. 75
How to Make an Atomic Bomb. 76
How to Build a Hydrogen Bomb…Not 77
Global Terrorism, Redux. 78
The United Nations. 81
Is it Possible to Survive Without a Military?. 83
Is World Peace Possible?. 83
Is Democracy Working?. 84
A Simple Solution to Wars. 86
The Simple Solutions to Crime and Wars. 90
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How bad is the U.S. economy? Credit remains tight and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 40% from a year ago. How bad is the world economy? About the stock exchanges, year to date change: USA (S&P) and UK -39%, France -43%, Germany -44%, Japan -46%, Hong Kong -47%, China -70% and Russia, down 64% just since May 19. Oil, at $77.80/barrel is 19% lower and gold has increased 2.5%.
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Hurricane Norbert has stormed through the Baja Peninsula at close to 100 MPH. Tropical Storm Odile at 45 MPH is just touching the southwest coast of Mexico, but should turn west and weaken. While headed for Hawaii, the speculation is that Odile will become a remnant in a few days.
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Friday, October 10, 2008

DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?

The following excerpt concludes my prelude to SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:


The End of the Cold War


The war on poverty has just begun and interest in the environment is but a budding concept. But there has been at least one monumental societal accomplishment. Many have called the end of the Cold War as the most significant step to preserve civilization. Who was responsible for affecting this magnificent victory?

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (founded by a group of Manhattan Project scientists in 1945) created the Doomsday Clock in 1947 to draw attention to the potential for nuclear Armageddon. In the 61 years, the time has only been reset on 17 occasions. In 1947 it was initially placed at 7 minutes to midnight, clearly meaning that in the span of 24 hours, or 1440 minutes, we were then close to the end of civilization.
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Today it is at 5 minutes to midnight, thus, the situation is supposedly worse. It was set to 2 minutes in 1953 when both the U.S. and the Soviet Union exploded Hydrogen Bombs, jumped as high as 12 minutes in 1963 when the U.S. and S.U. signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty--SALT I), but with several ups and downs, re-set to 3 minutes in 1984 when our two countries upgraded our Cold War posturing. The time did not change when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. Doomsday jumped to 17 minutes in 1991 when the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed. One would think, anyhow, that the world is now a far, far safer place, for Pakistan, India, the Middle East and North Korea do not evoke terminal fear or threat of MAD, mutually assured destruction. Yes, there are still sufficient nuclear weapons potentially ready to be reactivated to cause some mischief, but the politics of the times are such that I think the clock should be reversed, to at least 15 minutes, if not one hour. (Aside from the global economy and environment, we are in great shape.)

The clock was at 9 minutes in the Fall of 1979, which was not a good time for the American Nation. I arrived in the U.S. Senate. Well, that was the best part. Earlier in the year, China had invaded Vietnam, the Three Mile Island nuclear disaster occurred not that far from the national capitol, the YMCA sued the Village People over their song of the same name and the second oil crisis with those interminable gasoline lines made life tedious. Just around then, the USA hockey team was being selected by their coach, Herb Brooks, the Iranian crisis happened, with 66 Americans held hostage in Teheran, followed the next month by the Soviets occupying Afghanistan. National pride was at an all time low and we felt powerless, when a miracle came to pass. For the record, I treat miracles in Chapter 5 of Book 2 on the Golden Evolution.

Early in 1980, the USA ice hockey Olympic victory accomplished by a bunch of college students over the supremely dominant Soviet team, triggered a return of will to the American people, embarrassed by the Vietnam War and weakened by the Iranian hostage crisis. This indelible moment in all of U.S. sports history, it is said, inspired President Ronald Reagan to, two years later, confront the Evil Empire (Ronald Reagan, to the British House of Commons, June 8, 1982). Actually, Republicans and Reagan historians like to try to forget this, but the real Evil Empire Speech was given on March 8, 1983, to the Annual Convention of the National Association of Evangelicals (yikes!) near Disney World in Florida. Anyway, Coach Herb Brooks, who was the last cut on the 1960 American ice hockey team (which went on to win the gold medal in Squaw Valley that year--less than 200 miles from where I was then attending college), had this vision, delivered, and, perhaps, aided in ending the Cold War. In my estimation, this was the most crucial triumph for humanity ever, yet.

Maybe one other person set the stage for the end of the Cold War: Charlie Wilson. Charles Nesbitt Wilson went to Annapolis and graduated 8th from the bottom (better than John McCain, who was 894th out of 899), going on to an assignment in the Pentagon analyzing the Soviet Union. A state legislator at the age of 27, he later served in the U.S. House of Representatives for 12 terms, and was known as “Good Time Charlie” for being an alcoholic womanizer. However, as a member of the subcommittee overseeing the Central Intelligence Agency, he single-handedly influenced the diversion of largely black (covert, secret) military funds to help the local patriots fight the Russians in Afghanistan, resulting in their ignominious retreat in 1981, the year Ronald Reagan first became president. You might have seen the movie: Charlie Wilson’s War, starring Tom Hanks and directed by Mike Nichols. Houston socialite Joanne Herring played by Julia Roberts, and Gust Avrakotos, the rogue CIA agent, by Philip Seymour Hoffman, might share some of the credit.

American actor Ronald Reagan played the most important role of his life as the 40th president of the USA, and is sometimes credited with ending the Cold War, as his purposeful confrontational defense budget beginning in 1981, particularly Star Wars, fundamentally terrified the Soviet Union into overspending on defense, leading to effective bankruptcy. But, should Edward Teller, who convinced Reagan about this strategy, be the hero? Or one of his staff members I earlier talked about at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory? It had to start somewhere, and inevitably this would be at some primary, if not lower, staff level. Remember, presidents, governors and legislators almost never have the time to think out simple solutions. You have to do it for them. Charlie, though, as a real exception, after the initial influence, might have done most of it himself.

When Mikhail Gorbachev rose to power in 1985, his response to Reagan was glasnost (openness to public debate) and perestroika (restructuring) policies, followed by summit offers to reduce their nuclear arms stockpile. This initiative set the mechanism in motion for arms reduction, and also to the disestablishment of the Soviet Union. How he pulled this off without being sent to some far off Gulag site is a mystery to me. Cowed, inspired, whatever, Gorbachev in 1990 won the Nobel Peace Prize. Let's, thus, give credit to both Reagan and Gorvachev. Also, too, one wonders, who in Russia had the ear and mind of Gorbachev?

It is an exceptionally rare situation when the individual who gets credit actually came up with the idea. It is the leader’s position and prevailing circumstances that were essential, but someone else out there started it all. I credit Ronald and Mikhail for making the critical decisions regarding the Cold War, but nominate Herb, Charlie, the guys at LLNL, Claire and Kevin as my heroes for finding and delivering on these simple solutions for peace, poverty and Planet Earth. Thus, you, too, someday, could well join these unknown heros.

There are, of course, innumerable ways to undertake your personal mission. Former president Bill Clinton wrote Giving in 2007. The book goes into vivid detail about how each of us can change the world. He wrote that six year old McKenzie Steiner organized a beach cleanup club in San Diego. Yes, 6 years old. Who knows who she will be affecting or what she will do when she turns 7.

Now, go to the various web pages. Learn a little more about the ultimate matter of your greatest interest and begin to make a difference by coming up with just one simple solution. How best to get started? Reread this appendix. Or e-mail me at PTakahas@Hotmail.com. Together, with some dedicated others, we can help save Planet Earth and Humanity! Aloha, and have a great rest of your life.
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What a ride today. The Dow Jones Industrials initially fell almost 700 points to below 8000, then rose into the plus category, but ended minus 128 at 8451, slightly more than 40% below what it was a year ago. The speech by President Bush did not hurt, but did not help much, either. China stocks had their worst week on record, and are down by more than two-thirds over the past year. Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe all fell by more than 8% today. The Japan Nikkei 225 suffered its biggest one day drop in 21 years and the Indonesian stock market halted trading. Russia had recovered by almost 10 percent yesterday, but, interestingly enough, suspended trading today. The Russian stock exchanges had dropped 68% (about the same as China--our two, so called, challengers)since May before this recovery. In the meantime, crude oil dropped around 10% today to $77.70/barrel. To add to the confusion, gold also dropped today, minus $73/ounce to $851. An investor might want to look closer at silver as a holding opportunity.
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Hurricane Norbert, now at 103 MPH is weakening, and should cross the Baha Peninsula over the next 24 hours, maybe as a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Odile should just skirt southwest Mexico and head west. Now at 58 MPH, Odile seems destined to become a hurricane in a few days and move towards Hawaii.
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Thursday, October 9, 2008

BARACK OBAMA IS GRAY

The following article was published today in The Huffington Post:
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Patrick Takahashi
Posted October 9, 2008 12:04 PM (EST)

Barack Obama is Gray

My very first HuffPost a few months ago was entitled Well, Barack, We have a Problem. It was a wishful paean in search of the individual perhaps best suited to save our planet from global warming, while galavanizing world peace. In a Ray Bradbury Sound of Thunder reversal, I have come full-circle back to Barack Obama, but to a harsh real world on the verge of something worse than a recession.

Towards the end of CNN's post-presidential debate discussion on October 7, David Gergen declared it was too early to proclaim Barack Obama the victor of the 2008 presidential race simply because Obama was black. Polls are not totally believable, said Gergen, and Obama's blackness may cost him as much as six points. Gergen will be criticized, no doubt, for dealing this racial card, but he injected a very crucial point. This might well be the only factor left standing in the way of an Obama presidency.

Obama had his Reverend Wright, Khalid Al-Mansour and Tony Rezko. John McCain has been linked to the Keating Five, is on his second marriage and was operated on melanoma in 2000. Nothing much is left to uncover. Yes, there is the upcoming third debate, but no game-changing surprises are anticipated.
The numbers are such that Obama should win. Yet, as that venerable Yankee catcher Lawrence Peter Berra might have said, "It will never happen until it happens." A non-white person has never been elected president of the United States. Pundits like to point out the Bradley and Wilder Effects, when black candidates for governor lost even though polls showed them ahead at the end. Gergen knows all this, and when I observed him making that fatal statement, his facial and body language seemed to be that of a positively concerned observer who very carefully felt compelled to blurt out this almost verboten fact. In my mind he did Obama a great favor. He hammered home the first nail on McCain's campaign coffin.

By all common sense, the people of the Nation should mostly vote for Obama on November 4:

1. Obama is 47; McCain is 72. Because of his bout with cancer, there are reports available hinting that McCain had only a 65% chance of surviving into the year 2010.

2. Obama graduated #1 in his Harvard Law class; McCain was 894th out of 899 at the Naval Academy. If you were rating heart surgeons to operate on you, which medical equivalent would you choose?

3. Joseph Biden has a Juris Doctorate from Syracuse University; Sarah Palin meandered through five colleges over a six-year period, to finally graduate from the University of Idaho in journalism.

4. McCain supports President Bush in Iraq and the economy; Obama is for change.

5. Obama won the first two presidential debates over McCain.
The list can go on and on, but 66% of Americans are white and 13% black. All things being equal, people tend to vote their ethnicity. Hawaii has only minorities, but Filipinos vote for Filipino candidates and Japanese for Japanese. A person running for office actually gains when of mixed race, for a Chinese-Hawaiian will get most of the Chinese and Hawaiian votes.

This is where Barack Obama should have a huge advantage, for he is both black and white: his father is a PhD Kenyan, and his white mother was born in the heartlands of Kansas. Because she was busy saving the world in the Pacific and gaining her PhD at the University of Hawaii, Barack was in large part reared by her two white parents, and in Hawaii, where, again, there are only minorities. We are not a perfect society here, but equality trumps over prejudice in our mélange melting pot.

There is a simple solution for the Obama campaign. Neutralize the Bradley/Wilder effect from the decision-making equation. Just make sure that the American populace knows that Barack Obama is Gray, or, better yet, both black and white, tinged with a variety of other colors from his upbringing and experience.
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Post a Comment by going to:
- ScarletKnight1307 See Profile: Something interesting that I didn't think about that came up on Rachel Maddow show last night when she was talking to Gov. Mike Easley of North Carolinawas talking about rural voters in North Carolinawhen asked about the Bradley effect (people saying they will vote for a black candidate and then don't)he offered something very differentfrom what he has heard from peoplehe thinks there could or will be a Reverse Bradley effectrural voters saying they won't vote for a black guy and then go in and vote for him.he summed it up like this "They Like McCain, but they like their Jobs better"
Posted 01:08 PM on 10/09/2008

- MeiLing See Profile: As one of the pundits said, "linking John McCain to the Keating 5 is like linking John Lennon to The Beatles! Wait! Wasn't John Lennon, a Beatle!"
Posted 12:38 PM on 10/09/2008

- PDinCA See Profile: McCain was not "linked to" the Keating Five. McCain *is* the Keating Five. Without McCain, it's the Keating Four.
Posted 12:12 PM on 10/09/2008
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It was exactly a year ago that the Dow Jones Industrials hit a record high of 14,164.53. Today, the DJI closed at 8,582.13, a drop of 675.97 for the day, nearly a 40% drop in a year. A recession is supposed to reflect something on the order a 20% fall, so, clearly, we are now officially in dangerous times. This is a day after the Federal Reserve and world-wide counterparts all dropped interest rates (25% in the U.S., from 2.0% to 1.5%) and almost week after President George Bush signed the $850 Billion Bailout Package. Yes, our economy is in serious trouble. Anticipating the slowdown, oil prices dropped more than $4 today to $84.80/barrel. The Dated Brent Spot is now at $80.04/bbl. While the renewable investment credits were thankfully rolled into the rescue plan, the plunging price of oil and difficult credit period will almost assuredly dampen solar investments over the next year.
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Hurricane Norbert is now at 115 MPH, should weaken a bit, and will begin to affect Baha Saturday. Newly named Tropical Storm Odile is strengthening, and while only with 50 MPH winds now, could become a hurricane in two days. Odile is tracking the coastline of Mexico. It is uncertain at this time if Baha will again be hit. If this happens, it should be about a week from today. No major storms currently in the Atlantic or West Pacific.
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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

LIVE EARTH AND GLOBAL WARMING

The following is an excerpt from the EPILOGUE of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

In 2007, Al Gore borrowed Bob Geldorf’s concept to stimulate the remediation of Global Climate Warming with Live Earth, which some reported as the biggest benefit concert ever, as the kick-off point for a three year campaign for Planet Earth. TV (in Hawaii on wide-screen high definition HDUNI) and the internet carried over a 22-hour period 150 acts from twelve locations, including, after beating off the Republicans, Washington, D.C., and from all seven continents (six, if you’re from Europe, for they combine North and South into one America), even Antarctica. This was an incredible carbon light rock spectacle, interspersed with Green messages from 60 short films.
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Of course, nothing major can proceed these days without detractors. Geldorf, himself, labeled this as a “hollow spectacle,” Roger Daltrey of The Who said, “the last thing the planet needs is a rock concert,” and the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals demanded that hot dogs and hamburgers not be served. Oh well, you can’t please everyone all the time. But this act helped gain Gore a Nobel Prize, and more importantly, provided a well needed galvanizing spark for Planet Earth.

While Tipper has long served to censor music, Al, since the days of Bob Dylan’s Blowin’ in the Wind, has felt that music was an agent of change. But it was Kevin Wall, an American concert promoter, who really invented Live Earth. He was involved with Live 8 in 2005, the effort by Geldorf and Bono to pressure the G8 about African poverty. Wall saw that millions viewed Inconvenient Truth, so why not billions? But, maybe it was Wall’s secretary, or her son, who planted the idea. In any case, this is all good for Planet Earth. Listen to the critics, but move on from here. In the long term, the repercussions will be significantly positive.
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The NYMEX CRUDE FUTURE settled to $88.16/barrel, while the DATED BRENT SPOT did, too, down to $82.58/bbl. The Dow Jones Industrials went wild today again like a yoyo, finally dropping 189 to 9258, even though the Federal Reserve and global central banking authorities together dropped their prime rates, in the U.S. from 2% to 1.5%.
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Hurricane Norbert is shaping up to be a significant storm, now at 133 MPH, and could well strengthen to 140 in a day or two. It should then slightly weaken but still hit Baja as a hurricane this weekend. Another tropical depression just formed in the Pacific just south of Central American, and should skirt the west coast up to Mexico.
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Tuesday, October 7, 2008

HOW ONE PERSON MADE A DIFFERENCE

Over the next few days, rather than complete the Appendix from Book 1, SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, I will use the final pages of the epilogue from Book 2, SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, starting with "How One Person Made a Difference: The End of Poverty."

The simple solution is for each person to try to make a positive difference. It is as simple as that. Can one individual, for example, do anything about poverty?

In 2005, The Lancet reported on a study showing that $5.1 billion could save 6 million kids. That sum is 6% of the expenditures for tobacco products. The average smoker does a pack a day. If these individuals can smoke only one less cigarette a day, and a way is found to effectively apply that savings, poof, we solve that poverty problem, and, maybe start the process of saving your life (if you smoke or are in poverty), too. How simple can it get?

There is, of course, the other side of the coin, for most of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa, where living is torture. What is the rationale for keeping a child alive for another week when the rest of his life could well be agony? If you make the decision that any life saved for however short time is justified, then, read on. If you think that curing poverty will only cause more anguish for the rescued, you miss the point, for you need to take one step first to reach the ultimate.

Jeffrey D. Sachs wrote, The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for our Time. It’s a New York Times bestseller. Says Business Week, “Sensible, often brilliant analysis of poverty’s root causes and potential solutions…leaves you with hope that this crisis is more curable than it seems.” Is Jeffrey Sachs that individual that should be crediting to ending poverty? Nope, although it takes a village, and he is an important part of the ultimate solution.

Well, consider Live 8, which occurred on July 2, 2005, as one of the most momentous concerts ever and one of the greatest political lobby ever formed, all for the cause of poverty in Africa. It was timed a week before the G8 summit in Scotland to resolve the African matter. The message was received, as these world leaders agreed on double the aid to Africa, although some quibble that this would have happened anyway.

But Live 8 was preceded by Live Aid on July 13, 1985—60 artists in London and Philadelphia, 1.5 billion television viewers in 120 countries to raise $140 million for famine relief in Africa--which derived from the Band Aid Trust organized by Bob Geldorf to record “Do They Know It’s Christmas,” which inspired USA for Africa’s “We are the World.” Is Geldorf that spark? Known for starring on screen in The Wall, Sir Bob raised three children after his wife, Paula Yates, ran off with INXS singer Michael Hutchence, but became the guardian of their (Paula/Michael’s) daughter after their accidental deaths. Real hero, right? Most definitely!

However, Sir Geldorf did not really start all this. It might have been an aid worker in Ethiopia, Claire Bertschinger. Claire, a nurse for the Red Cross, making life and death decisions on who to feed, was filmed by Michael Buerk and his BBC crew. Her clearest memory of that momentous recording day was taking an anemic baby to the hospital for a blood transfusion. “They had no blood, so I gave him one unit of mine and my diary entry was that ‘today I have done something.” This clip was seen by Geldorf, who was moved to also do something. Bertschinger’s story can be read in Moving Mountains.

For most, just donating blood is beyond duty to humanity. But to have done both without any thought to inspiring Live 8 or later receiving the Florence Nightingale Medal, is what each individual can do. A key point here is that, if you care, don’t stop at one good deed. Do what you can, but some element of perseverance is also necessary. Over time, someone will notice. If no one ever notices, well…anything is connected to everything else, and something you do can affect the future, what is called the butterfly effect. Every step you take, every move you make, if done with good will, will only benefit humanity over time.

This can happened in the negative too, as in Ray Bradbury’s Sound of Thunder. In this short story and movie, a tour guide some time in the future takes a couple of hunters in a time machine to shoot a dinosaur just at the moment it was supposed to die anyway. Unfortunately, one of them steps on a butterfly, and when they return home, they find a world significantly changed for the worse, a different kind of butterfly effect.

Has Claire Bertschinger cured poverty? Hardly, but what she started sparked the beginning of the solution, even if she originally had no clue as to what she was doing, except with good conscience helping humanity. You do have a clue, so you should be able to be more effective.

So, if Claire and the heavy footed hunter so monumentally can change the future without even knowing what they had done, why bother? Think about that. If you do something terrible, the future will be probably be negatively influenced. But, if you do anything purposeful and good, and keep at it, the odds are that you can, and will, change the future for the better. Claire Bertschinger’s act of sacrifice brought early initial dividends. Yours might take a millennium or more, but Planet Earth is good for another 5 billion years, and probably longer.
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The stock market fell another 508 points today, dropping the Dow Jones Industrials to a five year low at 9447. In five days the DJI has sunk 13%, 33% from a year ago. The price of crude slinked a bit lower to $89.71/barrel, but the Brent Spot price today stayed at $83/bbl. Tomorrow, now that the economy has trumped everthing else, my prediction about our next president.
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Tropical Storm Marco did not quite attain hurricane status, but today crashed into Eastern Mexico, 55 miles north of Veracruz, and brought a lot of rain. In the Pacific, Tropical Depression Marie is dissipating and can now be ignored, unless you happen to be sailing into it. However, Norbert is now a hurricane at 95 MPH and could strengthen to 125 MPH. It is expected to turn from a north northwest direction to north northeast, weaken a bit, and strike Baha in three days.
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Monday, October 6, 2008

THE BAILOUT BILL PASSES CONGRESS, THE PRESIDENT SIGNS THE LEGISLATION AND THE WORLD IS SAVED. NOT!

Well, that crucial first Wall Street operational day after the rescue, the Dow Jones Industrials on Monday (October 6) dropped a tad more than 800 points at one point—once again the WORST one day drop in history—but settled at only minus 370, at 9956, about 30% lower than a year ago. For about the tenth time over the past month in my daily blog I again underscored the danger of this metastability. The fatal fear is that we are losing control of prices.

Keep in mind, though, that the German, Paris and Tokyo stock exchanges have all sunk 31% this past year, with London at minus 27% and China (Shanghai) a staggering minus 67%. They, too, all are bailing out banks and other financial institutions. Thus, you can’t really only blame Wall Street, the White House, Congress, McClain and Obama. This seems to be a world-wide phenomenon.

Interestingly, precious metals have also dropped in the 30-70% range the past few months, even gold. Usually, investors switch to very low interest federal bonds or gold in time of coming crisis. Gold did rise a few percent today, but remains below what it was this past Friday. So there is some definite uncertainty on this reactionary front.

The U.S., though, sets the tone for the globe, and eight years of Republican free market policies no doubt laid the table for the crunch. The Bush Supreme Court, too, played their predictable hands off role by preventing state regulators from mortgage loan oversight (April 2007 decision).

Ominously my HuffPo prediction of $75/barrel oil seems to be happening, as NYMEX crude futures slipped below $90/barrel to $88.51/bbl, while the Brent Spot is now at $83/bbl. The growing world recession is reducing consumption, so there is weakening competition for the available oil. OPEC President Khelil today predicted that oil prices will continue to drop next year. Will we see $50/bbl oil in 2009? If so, don’t be surprised if all those already announced billion dollar renewable resource projects begin to lose financial support. Here we go, back to the past again.

Tropical Storm Marco has formed west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico, could strengthen into a hurricane in 12 hours, and slam into Mexico north of Veracruz tomorrow. Note that there are now 13 named storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Tropical Depression Marie in the Pacific has weakened, is turning southwest and will become a remnant soon. Tropical Storm Norbert has formed just off the coast of South Mexico and could become a serious hurricane up 90 MPH or higher in two days. While currently heading for Hawaii, all models show Norbert turning north towards Baha, weakening as colder waters are encountered.
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Saturday, October 4, 2008

$850 BILLI0N WALL STREET BAILOUT

The dust is clearing, but if won't be for a while for total clarification, particularly those curious add-ons. One would have thought that these picayune (but expensive) pork chops should have particularly infuriated those conservative Republicans in the House. Somehow, in this most perilous of financial times, the Senate had the nerve to tack on the following tax relief add-ons (generally over ten years):

- rebate on rum excise taxes in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands = $192 million

- credit for expired tax credits in American Samoa = $33 million

- depreciation advantages for NASCAR = $100 million

- reduction of import duties for wool fabrics = $148 million

- film and TV production credits = $478 million
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- loans for the auto industry = $25 BILLION

There were, of course, assorted small ones, with two of them being:

- tax advantages for parking bicycles = $2 million

- exemption of wooden arrow taxes = $2 million
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Further, the stock market had already mostly recovered from that worst one day drop in history. So why was the House so compliant in rolling over and passing the Senate version of the rescue package? It is reported that the loan market was so paralyzed that even one more day of delay could have discombobulated the national economy. So, by passing the exact same measure, President Bush could immediately sign it without a conference, and he did within two hours of passage.
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How large a sum is $850 billion? Well, as reported yesterday, that is equal to $8,000 per family...or $2700/person. More so, details can be found in my Huffington Post article on Billions and Trillions, but this bailout is more than three times the combined cost in 2008 dollars of the Manhattan Project, Marshall Plan and Apollo Project. Maybe the worst part of this all is that we don't yet know how the market and economy will react.
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Tropical Storm Marie, now up to 70 MPH, is moving very, very slowly towards Hawaii, and is expected to attain hurricane status in a day or two. It is still expected to weaken before doing any damage. There is a brand new tropical depression at 35 MPH which just formed off the coast of southern Mexico in the Pacific. It is too early to predict much.
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Friday, October 3, 2008

FINANCIAL BAILOUT PACKAGE APPROVED IN HOUSE

Okay, so my prophecy about doing nothing about the money mess for the good of the nation did not come to be. The House of Representatives voted 263 to 171 to pass the amended $700 billion Wall Street bailout package. The original bill was all of three pages long. The House than added 107 pages, and the Senate's version ended up at 451 pages, which is the version that will be agreed to tomorrow. There were 350 pages of pork projects adding $110 billion to the bill. How the legislation remained $700 billion is a mystery to me, except on further thought, the final cost to taxpayers must be $810 billion.  No, the latest tally seems to add up to $850 billion, which amounts to about $8,000/family in the country.  Let me repeat:  each family in the nation is paying $8,000 to bail out Wall Street.
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Further, this addition was supposed to cater to conservative Republican House members, so it was a surprise that the renewable energy investment tax credits got rolled into the mix, said to be worth $17 billion over 8 years. If anything, these very same conservative Republicans have been pro-fossil/nuclear. Maybe Democrats Abercrombie/Hirono had to also be placated.
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House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass), who has become the resident comedian of the negotiations, remarked to Rep. Jeb Hensarling's (R-Tex) fear about this rescue fundamentally changing the nature of government, by saying that he would be "ever mindful of the danger that President Bush will lead us down the road to socialism."

More on energy, I made additions to a Mother Jones (May/June 2008, pg 35) table comparing the relative importance of the sustainables:

Department of Energy 2008 solar budget-------$168 million

Average ANNUAL Department of Energy renewable energy
budget over the past decade---LESS THAN $ 1 BILLION

AmountAmericans spend on gasoline
----------------------------------------each day-----$ 1.5 BILLION
----------------------------------------each year----$550 BILLION

Federal ethanol subsidies in 2006--------------$ 6 BILLION

Federal coal subsidies in 2006-----------------$ 8 BILLION

Federal oil/gas subsidies in 2006------------$ 39 BILLION
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You can bet that these subsidies will be larger in 2008. Thus, the nearly $2 billion/year tax breaks for the renewables are, if anything, somewhat paltry, considering the incoming fallout from Peak Oil and Global Warming.
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Oil prices dove to $92.78/bbl, while the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 157 points to 10,325.
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Marie is now a hurricane at 75 MPH and is continuing to head west towards Hawaii. Earlier predictions were that it would weaken in a couple of days, but that message is now absent. Tropical Depression Higos is still heading for Hainan.
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Thursday, October 2, 2008

RAINBOW VISIONS (Part 4)

As one of my personal case studies, take the field of hydrogen. The details are provided in Chapter 3 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, but appreciate that Hawaii is in the middle of the Pacific and runs mostly on oil. We have a wide variety of natural energy resources, but there was something about hydrogen a third of a century ago that made long term sense, especially as 40% of energy used here went towards aviation, and this gas was ideal as a future jet fuel. Why not, then, make Hawaii a leader in this field, as no one was yet doing anything of any importance. Choosing the U.S. Senate as the launching pad for action, using all the lessons above, Hawaii eventually became the U.S. National Center for Hydrogen Research. It took almost 20 years from initial vision to national center status, and, this is is only a very preliminary first step. Others are continuing the effort, while I have moved on to biomethanol as the bridge to the ultimate hydrogen economy.

Case two: Hawaii is surrounded by the largest ocean, so what about tapping the riches of the seas? Again, we would have no competition if we could have our congressional representatives place funds to help build credibility. We had to take this step because the University of Hawaii had no credibility in ocean resource technology. In the Senate, I helped write the ocean thermal energy conversion bill. Also, I shepherded the Hard Minerals Act for strategic seabed minerals, so why not establish a center on these subjects in Hawaii? Finally, marine biotechnology: Hawaii as the biological equivalent of Silicon Valley would be as high tech as they come, and no university at that time had any engineering capability in this field. My PhD involved using a tunable laser to stimulate the DNA/RNA of E. coli. The result, and this one only took 15 years, was the National Science Foundation Marine Bioproducts Engineering Center for the University of Hawaii. It is relatively easy to find unique themes in whatever makes sense from your experiences and natural advantages.

Combining all this ocean stuff, we could then have a Blue Revolution (Chapter 4), the marine equivalent of the terrestrial Green Revolution, where the only product was better grains. The Blue Revolution had the promise of providing next generation seafood, sustainable energy, new habitats, and natural materials, while enhancing the environment, plus, perhaps also preventing hurricanes and remediating global climate warming.

Now, there is a danger in floating a mega project, no matter how terrific it sounds, for governmental funding and staff people are inherently afraid of ten year, $10 million/year initiatives, especially when you get carried away and talk about something that will cost, perhaps, a billion dollars. You need to start reasonably small, and build up to the worthwhile adventures. Thus, while you must conceive of the total program and show at least a little vision, begin by suggesting an element of the system. This is a way to reconcile LESSONS ONE and FIVE. As you re-read Chapter 4, you should be able to identify all seven lessons being utilized.

Initial thoughts were imagined in the 1970’s, and matured in the 1980’s, for basic research at the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute of the University of Hawaii and technology transfer at the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research on green energy (Chapter 2), hydrogen (Chapter 3) and ocean resources (Chapter 4). A third of a century later, we are yet only a third of the way there. But the seeds have been planted. That was the best I could do. I have confidence that there will be others to carry on the total mission.
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Crude oil prices are sinking again, down to $93.75/bbl. The DJI is also falling -348, even though the Senate passed the bailout package last night and the House is expected to follow-through tomorrow. Maybe investors are worried about how Sarah Palin will do in her debate with Joe Biden tonight.
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Let me just ignore Tropical Storms Kyle and Laura, as they are just too far north to cause any mischief to the USA. There is Tropical Storm Marie, now at more than 50 MPH and heading west, straight for Hawaii, with the potential to strengthen over the next couple of days. Most models, however, are predicting, then, a gradual weakening. Tropical Depression Higos, now weakened to 35 MPH, is approaching Hainan, then should turn northeast towards Hong Kong in three or four days and bring rain through the south eastern coastal regions of China beginning this weekend. Also known as Pablo, it brought 40 MPH winds and some rain to the Manila region yesterday, but was characterized as a gentle storm.
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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

RAINBOW VISION LESSONS (Part 3)

To gain rainbow vision, combine the foundational roots of the above with the following lessons:

1. LESSON #1: determine what you want to accomplish where you have a natural advantage, and develop a sensible strategy. You won’t be able to, with distinction, compete in traditional fields. If you’re in Kansas, and water is running out, you must figuratively learn how to tame a tornado to produce water. In Hawaii, we are in the middle of the largest ocean, are endowed with a range of natural energy sources and rest at the interface of East and West. Clearly, an international sustainable resources project puts you at a distinct advantage.

2. LESSON #2: invariably, other people will have better ideas than you. You must learn to listen and question, nicely. It is all in how you can synthesize the pieces and people to fit the situation and mandate. It will take a few mistakes, with small victories, gaining something called maturity and confidence, to recognize the value of doing the right thing in the right way most of the time. Fortunately for you, you can now start from here knowing all this, for this form of common sense generally needs to be learned, by cruel experience.

3. LESSON #3: optimize your social skills. Take politics, for example. The worst place to convince an elected official is in his office. You will not be able to change the mind of a legislator in a public hearing. Most of the effective selling, call it, even, lobbying, you will do needs to occur in a social setting. Consider golf, surfing, wine and karaoke to break the ice. Find your forte and apply it. Research awards are not only won by pure scientific brilliance, an academic corollary to LESSON 3. You've first got to get the money to do the work.

4. LESSON #4: work/volunteer for someone in Congress, the National Science Foundation, your State Legislature or an environmental group of your interest. A couple of years looking from the inside out, or, even, outside in, will give you a broader perspective, special connections and a competitive edge. Using politics again, LESSON 4B: go out of your way to help get someone elected. If that person loses, keep quiet and try again. A senator, any politician, will never turn down a sincere request for help, for the effort and effectiveness might suffer if there is no compelling need for them or their staff to want to really help you. There will be a hundred times more need than ability to deliver. Yours will be important enough only if they think you deserve it. It’s amazing how important you can be if you have done something for them.

5. LESSON #5: tolerate the small stuff, but ultimately, focus on something monumental. Why waste your time and that of others, for it only takes a little more effort to attain a higher goal than something too easy or simple. On the other hand, how can you be effective if you haven’t had some experience? #5 is on the surface not consistent with #1, but only you can resolve these apparent contradictions in life. Hint: start small and build.

6. LESSON #6: make your own luck. Bob Gibson, when he pitched, had incredible luck. Batters kept missing his ball. People still can’t believe how lucky Rod Carew was, for while other infielders were almost always only inches away when the ball passed them, somehow he made the play. While you accept any good fortune, many times you need to make your own luck through uncommon effort and good people relations. Gibson and Carew made their luck through talent and a lot of hard work.

7. LESSON #7: everyone has unique skills and friends. You must find something distinctive, with future utility, where you have a clear advantage. If you eventually undertake that monumental mission, find that niche or element ideal for you and your environment.

Thus, the Seven Lessons of Rainbow Vision.
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Well, the U.S. Senate passed the bailout bill 74-25, with a few add-ons for main street to the $700 billion rescue package. The DJI was stable, slipping 20 points to 10,831, and crude oil dropped below $100 to $99.35/bbl. Who knows what will happen in the House tomorrow, as the stock market has already stabilized. There are still concerns, however, about stuckiness of the loan market.
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Tropical Storm Kyle continues to live, now approaching New Brunswick with winds of nearly 70 MPH. Most unusual, being so far north and still cyclonic. Tropical Storm Laura, however, at 45MPH, is dissipating in the mid-north Atlantic and continues to move further north. Now there is Tropical Storm Marie, which popped up several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico, and with winds of more than 50 MPH, is heading straight for Hawaii. However, the current expectation is some weakening over the next few days.
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Tropical Storm Jangmi is weakening, and continues to loiter in the vicinity of Kyushu, bringing more rain. Tropical Storm Higos has alread moved west of the Philippines, and while with 40 MPH winds, is expected to strengthen, perhaps into a typhoon, as it moves either towards China or north to Taiwain.
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