JAPAN: The Future Was Here

Two years ago, the BBC said Japan was the future, but it's now stuck in the past.  I agree.

• Among the detractions is ownership of real estate.  You buy a home, and after paying off your mortgage in, say, 40 years, it is worth almost nothing.

• 
  Japan recently had the third-largest economy, is a peaceful and prosperous country with the longest life expectancy in the world, the lowest murder rate, little political conflict, a powerful passport, and the sublime Shinkansen, the world's best high-speed rail network.  Actually, about GDP and the economy, Germany has slipped past Japan into #3, with India in the next few months easing by Japan.
• 
  When the author of this article, Rupert Wingield-Hayes, first arrived in Tokyo in 1993, a third of a century ago, he was effusive about the country being exquisitely clean and orderly.  Actually still is.
• But he noted that Hong Kong was an assault on senses and Taipei had horrible air pollution.
• He could have said the same about Bangkok.
• Ambitious parents around the world implored their offspring to "learn Japanese."

• 
  This was already two years after the Japanese bubble had burst and the Tokyo stock market had collapsed.  36 years later, the Nikkei has still not recovered.
• In 1989, the Nikkei 225 was at 38,916.
• The Nikkei 225 is today at 35,039.
• Real wages haven't grown in 30 years.  Incomes in South Korea and Taiwan have overtaken Japan.
• 
  Cited is that Japan has a fascination for manhole covers.  They are all works of art, and each costs up to $900.  There are 6,000 different designs.  And, incidentally, the Osaka Expo has it's own design.

• 
  The country needs international workers, but they maintain tight immigration controls.
• The foreign ministry is skeptical and fearful of the outside world.  

• 
  Only about 3% of the population is foreign-born. In the UK it is 15%, and the USA is today approaching 16%
• A third of the Japanese people are over 60.  By 2050 it will lose 20% of its current population.
• Men rule, for only 13% of business managers are female, while Diet representation is less than 10%.
• Japan has become modern without abandoning the ancient.

• 
  You need to understand the recent history to understand why Japan is Japan.
• In 1868 the samurai surrendered their swords, cut their hair, put on Western suits and began to run the government.  Their ilk is still there today.

• 
  In 1868, they saw how Western imperialists took over China.  
• This something they wished not to be repeated in Japan, so they got rid of the Tokugawa Shogunate and set Japan on a course of high-speed industrialization.  This was the Meiji Restoration.

• 
  Their position on World Wars one and two is that they were threatened by the Western World, and had to take precautions.
• The same party has essentially run the country for nearly 150 years.

All the above came from the BBC.  Below, my references.

• I reach further back.  In 1979 I read Japan as Number One:  Lessons for America, by Ezra Vogel.  It still stands as the all-time best seller in Japan of non-fiction by a Western author.
• But ten years later, Japan's economy began to fray, as was indicated above, the Nikkei was at 38,916.
• Accounting for inflation, if there were ZERO growth, the Nikkei should now be 168,000,
• However, yesterday, it was only 35,039.
• This is a point missed by analysts.  To reach and exceed the past stock market peak, the Nikkei must get up to 168,000, not wallow in the 30,000s.
• On 11March2011 came the crusher:  The Great Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami.  The worst part was the Fukushima nuclear disaster.  Just this cleanup cost will exceed ONE TRILLION DOLLARS.

So how can Japan regain it's world ranking, soon to be #5, back to at least #3, if not regain the promise it showed in 1979 to strive towards #1?

• Honestly?  Forget it.  
• Japan has the 11th largest world population, which will continue to drop because of a declining birth rate.  Vietnam is #16, and will surge past Japan by 2050.

• 
  In 1990, Japan was #1 in the world production of vehicles, 13.5 million to 9.8 million of #2 USA.  Last year?  China #1 with 31.3 million, USA at #2 with 10.6 million, and Japan at #3 with 8.2 million.  Japan's annual vehicle output dropped by 5.3 million in a third of a century.

• 
  They will be saddled with the Fukuoka nuclear problem into the 2050's.
• They have 33 nuclear reactors, with three more under construction, and 26 in the process of decommissioning.
• Many of the above nuclear powerplants are in seismically active areas.

• 
  They have minimal prospects for land-based renewable energy, not much left in any fossil fuel and a growing dependence on other countries to power the economy.
• UK is #6, France #7, Italy #8, Canada #9 and Brazil #10 in GDP.  Just remaining in #5 should be fine,

• 
  Consideration can be given to allowing more foreigners into the country with work visas.
• Expand job potential by having more women work in meaningful jobs.
• Japan is surrounded by oceans.  In 2011 I wrote a HuffPo:  The Blue Revolution is the Optimal Solution for Japan.

• 
  Land is limited.  The seas are there for free.
• Japan ranks #3 to China and South Korea in shipbuilding.
• They can re-energize this industry by building floating platforms for the Blue Revolution.

• 
  This new marine economy could provide green fuels, next generation fisheries and a range of other economic opportunities, while remediating global warming and preventing the formation of typhoons.
• For details on the Blue Revolution, watch my 18-minute TEDx talk given in December 2022.

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TODAY, YESTERDAY and TOMORROW

Before reaching back to my past on nostalgia Tuesday, first a lot of news items for today.  I'll mostly hint at the topics, so you can click on the links to follow up in detail.

• The biggest of all of them is the matter of democracy vs dictatorship.
•  The headline of the day:

Roberts rejects Trump’s call for impeaching judge who ruled against his deportation plans

• 
  Finally, Chief Justice John Roberts showed some backbone on the matter of President Trump's call for impeachment of all judges who ruled against him.
• This deportation case now appears to be the issue.
• How important is this comeuppance?  Very, for if Trump continues to do as he pleases, he becomes a dictator.

• 
  Trump is already in control of two parts of our government, his White House and the U.S. Congress.  The third leg is the Supreme Court.

• 
  However, the Supreme Court has no enforcement capabilities.  The Supreme Court, while having the power to interpret laws and the Constitution, lacks direct enforcement power; its decisions rely on the executive branch for implementation.   Trump controls the Department of Defense and National Guard.  Basically, he can do whatever he wants, and if he does, he becomes a dictator.
• 
  If Trump bends on this deportation/impeachment/judiciary matter, we will still have a democracy.  
• If Trump does not, we suddenly will have a dictatorship.  It's scarily as easy as that.
• Democrats can do nothing of relevance.  If they get the public to protest, and this becomes serious, Trump just arrests the leaders, some Democrats and the critical elements of the news media, invoking a wartime justification.  Just like Russia, we suddenly become a dictatorship.

• 
  Ukraine-Russia War ceasefire?
• Donald Trump and Vladimir  today had a phone discussion of an hour and a half.
• That in itself says a lot...and Putin also brought up the matter of hockey games, a good sign.
• No ceasefire, but some concessions.
• 
  Clearly, Putin is trying to delay things to gain more territory for the eventual outcome.
• Seems like both Trump and Putin are acting like they would like Zelenskyy to be replaced by someone more cordial to Russia.

• 
  Gaza Strip ceasefire?
• Israel launched its largest attacks yesterday since 2023, killing more than 400 in the Gaza Strip.
• Looks like the end of the ceasefire of the already 17-month war.
• Phase 2 looks shaky.
• There are still 59 hostages thought to be alive.
• The U.S. continuing with airstrikes of the Houthis in Yemen.  53 reported killed.
• 
  Our two stranded astronauts will splash down in the Gulf of America near Florida just before sundown today.
• Astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams boarded the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, and are on their way back to Earth.
• An eight-day stay on the International Space Station became nine months.
• I think this link will allow you to watch the landing and rescue.

On Sunday, my posting was on WORLD PEACE FOR HUMANITY.  Surely a preposterous concept today.  But I have a history of these ideas.  Crackpot scheme?  Beautiful dreamer?  To quote:

From my Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence with NASA, to Laser Fusion at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, to the Hydrogen Economy, to the Blue Revolution, to World Peace, nothing I do seems to attain any kind of reality. 

No success yet, but I still think they are all great pathways for humanity, and I am confident that they will attain reality someday.  In fact I have a few more of them I did not even mention.  

So I will today provide a few more details on these opportunities for our future.  Mind you, as fanciful as I think, I'm only into the Type I civilization of Nikolai Kardashev.   Watch this video of a true visionary.  I'll proceed chronologically.    

• 
  My first job when I graduated from college with a B.S. in chemical engineering was in biomass engineering for C. Brewer and Company, then the oldest company in Hawaii, at the Hutchinson Sugar Company on the Big Island.  The industry is now gone, but I was into renewable energy before it became popular.  Sure, sucrose is one of the most dangerous substances we consume, but in those days, it was not a health concern.
• 
  Half a can of soda has the daily requirement of sugar.
• Table sugar, sucrose, manufactured from sugar cane and sugar beets, is broken down by enzymes to glucose and fructose.
• Fructose, which also naturally occurs in fruits and honey, is slightly sweeter than sucrose, which is sweeter than glucose.  It has more health dangers than the other two.  Is mostly used in corn syrup.  

• 
  All sugars are bad, but fructose is the worst. 
• Artificial sweeteners, though, are even worse.
• So my first job was to refine a product not good for your health.  Not a good start.  I did, though, do my part in getting this industry to disappear from Hawaii.
• 
  After getting a PhD in biochemical engineering, my first few projects at the University of Hawaii were all related to the environment and renewable energy.  I even taught these courses.
• My first project was as the reservoir engineer for the Hawaii Geothermal Project.  
• We succeeded in drilling a little more than a mile down in Puna, Hawaii, to find the hottest geothermal well in the world.  
• Produced 3 MW of electricity.
• Founded the Community Geothermal Technology Program to develop by-products from the facility.

• 
  As a faculty member, though, I early went into administration.  However, I was able to also spend time elsewhere:
• In the mid to late 1970's, worked at the NASA Ames Research Center on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence and had two assignments at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on Laser Fusion.

• 
  I went to D.C., in 1979 to work in the U.S. Senate, where I was responsible for the passage of legislation in wind energy, ocean energy and hydrogen, where I drafted the original bills for the latter two.

• 
  Returned to Honolulu in 1982, became director of the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, then, in tandem, became vice president for development of the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research, where we successfully built a $25 million ocean thermal energy conversion facility  on the Big Island and tested another $25 million project to convert sugar cane into methanol on Maui.

• 
  In the 1980's, spent some time forming a national team on global climate warming remediation.
• Of course the science had to come first to prove this danger was real.  However, we felt that perhaps 10% of research funds should go to a few groups to determine solutions if they were necessary.
• I much later summarized our efforts in a HuffPo on Geoengineering of Climate Change.
• During this period, I was involved in the future of sustainable aviation. Click on that to read my 2009 Huffington Post publication on the subject.  A quote:

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will spend $100 million over the next few years to evaluate this field, but the reality is that we should be spending a billion dollars annually. Three-quarters of the energy used by our military goes to jet fuel.

While there are several fanciful air systems bandied about in various publications, one in particular, the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, a hydrogen-powered dirigible potentially capable of flying at 350 MPH (none of the other blimps go anywhere close to this speed), proposed by Rinaldo Brutoco, President of the World Business Academy, I think shows the most promise. In particular, he sees Hawaii as the ideal lead for this effort. (This concept is mentioned in my Huffington Post article of December 18.)

If you think that this hydrogen transport effort is too blue-skyish, Rinaldo Brutoco has talked to me about the notion of utilizing "fast" dirigibles (several hundred miles per hour speed, as opposed to the current 50 MPH) as the next generation aviation option for Hawaii.  His concept is to refuel his Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper with hydrogen from geothermal powerplants.  The aircraft would come to the site, eliminating an expensive part of the process.  A portion of the fuel would then be sold on the West Coast.  In his dreams, the H2 Clipper would eventually replace jet planes and jet fuel.  As far as I know, no one has a better idea, for when petroleum skyrockets to $200/barrel, it will take a solution on the order of the Brutoco Hydrogen Clipper Plan to sidestep a local economic depression.

• Also during the 1980s, most of the funds for the renewables went to produce electricity.  
• What was missing, I thought, was more effort on fuels for transportation. 
• Sure hydrogen for aviation made sense, but that was perhaps 50 years away.  What about ground transport options?
• 
  It appeared that ethanol from renewable energy did not make much sense, and was a gimmick of the farm industry.  It took until 2019 for Forbes to release this article:  With Ethanol and Biomass No Longer Viewed As 'Green,' will Other Renewables Soon Follow?

• 
  It was clear to me that methanol was the answer, for it is cheaper to make and was the only liquid that could be processed in a fuel cell.  Read my HuffPo on this subject.
• Of course, if you drink methanol, you will get drunk, but could go blind and die.  But who drinks gasoline?
• This was the reason for that project mentioned above on Maui.
• Also. batteries were fine, but was there something better?  Yes.  Read my HuffPo on Is there an Option More Promising than the Plug-In Electric Vehicle?
• Start by reading Simple Solutions for our Biofuel Problem.  I said:

The Nation and World unfortunately went in the wrong direction when ethanol from corn (plus sugars and other starches) and biodiesel from terrestrial plants were selected for focus. The Farm Lobby no doubt should be congratulated for smartly lobbying Congress and the White House, for farmers are in great shape. Job done! Regrettably, grain prices jumped, causing a food crisis for developing countries. The knee-jerk reaction was, of course, all that fibrous cellulose, why not ferment those wastes into more ethanol? So, a second herd of white elephants is now being groomed. Why? Because there is a simpler alcohol called methanol that makes more economic sense. My HuffPo article of June 10 compares ethanol and methanol.

Also.

Regarding biodiesel, the notion is almost laughable, as only a very small percent of the plant itself is used. Biodiesel from algae, for example, is ten to twenty times more efficient in converting sunlight into usable fuel. Plus, these land plants grow relatively slowly and need irrigation water.

And.

Per unit volume, a fuel cell should be able to provide five times more energy than the lithium battery.  In short, this device works like a battery to produce electricity, but uses hydrogen as the energy source instead of lithium, lead or cadmium. However, and this defies common sense, one gallon of methanol has more accessible hydrogen than one gallon of liquid hydrogen. Thus, the logic argues for producing methanol from biomass to power a fuel cell, as hydrogen is very expensive to manufacture, store and deliver. This simplest of alcohols is the only biofuel capable of directly and efficiently being utilized by a fuel cell without passing through an expensive reformer.

• The answer was the direct methanol fuel cell.  Unfortunately, again lobbying against the DMFC made funding impossible, and such a device was never really created.

More recently, meaning the past third of a century, I chose to combine many of facets of my earlier experience--ocean energy, hydrogen, global warming, and so on--into a mega-project that would:

• Produce a variety of marine products while remediating global climate warming and preventing the formation of hurricanes
• 
  Provide a profit to industry.
• Watch my TEDx talk of a couple years ago on The Time for the Blue Revolution is Now.  For details on the Pacific International Ocean Station, here is an earlier presentation I made to the Seasteading Institute in San Francisco.

• 
  The first floating city will host the 2050 World Expo.
• The first was The Great Exhibition in London of 1851.
• In 1975, there was an Ocean Expo in Okinawa.
• Thus, 75 years later, somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, maybe it will be near Okinawa, and 200 years after the first, this marine world fair will set the tone for the expansion of humanity into our seas.

I can envision a world someday of hundreds, if not thousands, of marine mega-cities mostly surrounding the equator.  

• The United Nations has problems enough with fewer than 200 countries to manage.  Each of these floating cities can theoretically become a nation.
• But they will all be producing renewable energy and resources to share with the rest of the world.
• The marine biomass plantations of macro and micro plants, will be cultivated to remediate global warming, while placement of a few of these floating cities where hurricanes form, will eliminate them.

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