The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 203 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.
On the change of deaths over the past 24 hours:
DAY China Italy USA Spain Germany S. Korea WORLD
Mar 18 11 475 41 105 2
19 8 427 21 165 15
20 3 627 18 213 15
21 7 793 32 285 15
22 6 651 98 375 9 6
23 9 601 85 435 24 7 1631
24 7 743 100 489 33 9 1983
25 4 683 129 454 47 6 1987
26 6 712 73 498 33 5 1801
27 5 919 182 569 71 8 2782
28 3 889 241 674 52 5 2609
29 5 756 169 624 49 8 2706
30 4 812 271 537 19 6 2849
31 5 837 439 553 37 4 3661
Apr 1 7 727 589 463 83 3 3239
29 5 756 169 624 49 8 2706
30 4 812 271 537 19 6 2849
31 5 837 439 553 37 4 3661
Apr 1 7 727 589 463 83 3 3239
Summary:
- The good news is that Italy, Spain and the World showed new deaths decline.
- The bad news is that the new deaths number for the USA continues to increase.
- China and South Korea remained below single digits in new deaths.
Analysis: Will You Die?
- If you are 60 or younger, the chances of your living another year are at 99%. That is, your death possibility is 1 in 100 or 1:100. This site provides details.
- However, I am 79, so the chances of my living another year is 94.6%. Thus, my death possibility is 5.4 in 100 or 1 in 18 or 1:18. More importantly, this is also the age of Dr. Tony Fauci.
- The deaths/million people rate for the World is now 5.8, with 45,541 total deaths.
- If deaths reach a million, this means 128 deaths per million. The odds on one of them being you are one in 7800, or 1:7800.
- However, the chances are low that when the World seems to be hitting an apex, 22 times more people will die than the current 45,551.
- The 3239 new deaths yesterday is getting close to the 3700 who presumably died in this 24-hour period for traffic accidents. If COVID-19 deaths reach the average of vehicular deaths, and stay there for a month, this would mean 110,000 deaths. Your odds of death? One in 71,000.
- for the full year at that rate, then 1.35 million deaths, which, of course, is the number who are killed annually on the road
- but the actual deaths are not constant and instead follow a hypothetical bell-type curve
- in other words, if the peak is today, and new deaths begin to decline, it's a good a guess as any that the total number of deaths in this first wave will be around 90,000 for the World--while this is not a standard bell-curve matter, it is good enough for this analysis
- as the U.S. is 4% of the world population, all things being equal, we should then suffer 3600 deaths, which is meaningless because we already have 4516 deaths
- however, the U.S. is currently at 14 deaths/million with 4,516 deaths, or 8,690 deaths when this is all over--this is a very optimistic case
- if the U.S. makes it up to the Italy rate (now 218 deaths/million, which will only increase over time), this would result in more than 56,000 deaths
- mind you, this analysis assumes today is the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic
- certainly the U.S. has not reached any kind of peak (272, 479 and 589, or increasing deaths the past three days), which could be in two weeks, a month or more
- So based on the peak coming later, U.S. scientists currently believe that this coronavirus might kill 100,000 to 240,000 Americans. This is actually not as bad as some previous worst case scenarios:
- The above graph shows how 56 million people died worldwide in 2017. Will a million die from COVID-19 this year? The total today is 45,541, and the world appears to be reaching that apex (2849, 3661, 3239 new deaths the past three days). The wild cards are India and neighbors, Africa and South America. Cases are currently abnormally low in those areas.
- If the total is 1 million, that's less than the 1.2 million from tuberculosis and 1.35 million from traffic accidents.
- On the order from HIV/AIDS (954,000) and suicide (794,000).
Number of deaths for leading causes of death in the USA:
- Heart disease: 647,457
- Cancer: 599,108
- Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
- Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
- Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
- Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
- others
Of course, age and other factors can make a huge difference, but to simplistically do the math, if you represent one of 327 million in the country, here are your odds of dying from these ailments this coming year:
- Heart disease (1:505)
- Cancer (1:545)
- Accidents (1:1924)
- Alzheimer's (1:2693)
- Traffic accidents (1:8605)
- Flu in 2018 (1:4088)
- Suicide (1:7527)
- If 100,000 COVID-19 deaths in nation (1:3270)
- If 240,000 COVID-19 deaths in nation (1:1362)
However, keep in mind that the number of COVID-19 deaths today rests at 4516. If we can keep the number of deaths to a max of 10,000, then these odds of you dying improve to 1:32,700.
Anyway, at the 100,000 COVID-19 death total in the U.S., your possible death this year from heart disease or cancer is around six times higher than from this coronavirus. Another way of saying this is that if one dies this year, the chances are 12 times higher that the cause will be heart/cancer than COVID-19...if the U.S. reaches 100,000 total COVID-19 deaths.
The bottom line is that you almost surely won't die from this novel coronavirus. Take care of your health and drive carefully.
Yesterday, I was perhaps a bit too positive. Today, I'm unemotionally being gloomy. However, as this is April Fool's Day, let me end with something that is not a joke. At some point I will articulate better on why the Orient was prepared with face masks and we still have not caught up, with the CDC pleading with you not to wear them, unless you are sick. The primary reason why China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are familiar with them, and everyone has a stock at home, is AIR POLLUTION!
The irony is that we legislated our country to largely eliminate air pollution by controlling stack gases and improving car efficiency, where they're also all equipped with a proper exhaust system. Otherwise, we'd have had a lot more masks in possession. Someone should tell President Donald Trump that lowering vehicle efficiency standards (this just happened yesterday) and allowing for additional stack gas pollution will not cure the nation from COVID-19. This is not an April Fools Day joke. All this is actually unfolding.
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