The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 209 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.
New deaths:
DAY China Italy USA Spain Germany S. Korea WORLD
DAY China Italy USA Spain Germany S. Korea WORLD
Mar 23 9 601 85 435 24 7 1631
24 7 743 100 489 33 9 1983
25 4 683 129 454 47 6 1987
26 6 712 73 498 33 5 1801
27 5 919 182 569 71 8 2782
28 3 889 241 674 52 5 2609
29 5 756 169 624 49 8 2706
30 4 812 271 537 19 6 2849
31 5 837 439 553 37 4 3661
Apr 1 7 727 589 463 83 3 3239
2 6 760 522 709 158 4 4183
29 5 756 169 624 49 8 2706
30 4 812 271 537 19 6 2849
31 5 837 439 553 37 4 3661
Apr 1 7 727 589 463 83 3 3239
2 6 760 522 709 158 4 4183
3 4 766 716 587 123 5 3822
4 4 681 769 546 55 3 4755
5 3 525 909 471 106 6 3595
6 2 636 874 528 78 3 4414
7 ? 604 1371 556 95 6 6291
8 2 542 1400 628 176 8 5431
5 3 525 909 471 106 6 3595
6 2 636 874 528 78 3 4414
7 ? 604 1371 556 95 6 6291
8 2 542 1400 628 176 8 5431
- A key number is that World new deaths dropped from 6291 to 5431.
- The USA experienced its worst day ever, a continuing increase to 1400.
- A bit troubling that Japan has not reported for two straight days now. Worse, it is now clear that by late next week, the new deaths daily will surely go up. However, at the currently reported 93 deaths, the deaths per million people figure is at a low 0.7, compared to the World at 11.2, USA at 43 and Spain at 314. India remains at an eerie 0.1.
- Still, nothing much occurring in Africa, although Algeria now has 205 deaths (more than twice that of Japan), with 12 new deaths.
An excellent summary of what is happening is provided daily by The New York Times. Clicking on links, you further get specific data from individual states, etc.
- In the 1918 to 1920 period, 500 million people were infected with the Spanish Flu. 50 million died (this is the figure I used--that table says up to 100 million).
- Live Science reports that the mortality rate from the Spanish Flu was 10% (again, I'm using the lower figure, compared to that table).
- This rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
- Originally, the COVID-19 mortality rate was at 3.72%. However, as more people are tested, this rate should someday drop to 1%, still ten times more than the seasonal flu, but one-tenth of the Spanish Flu (H1N1 virus, same as the pandemic of 2008-9). More so, it is appearing that the mortality rate for China will only be around 0.66%, so this lower number range will likely eventually become the official mortality statistic.
- From 1918 to 1920, the Spanish Flu killed:
- 50 million worldwide (16 million died from World War I)
- 675,000 Americans
- 2338 in Hawaii, but maybe even double that if you count the military here
- there were three waves, with deaths peaking in 1920
- early on World War I was still going on, so there were strict press controls
- there was a shortage of facilities and healthcare workers
- Queen's Hospital was transformed into a special location for Spanish Flu patients
- the U.S. Army Medical Department couldn't help because they too were overwhelmed.
- public schools remained open, but there was a patchwork of closings
- the death rate for pure Hawaiians was the highest, with Caucasians the lowest
- The world population was 1.8 billion in 1918, and did not change much for 1920:
- Thus, the deaths today (population of 7.5 billion) would have been 208 million from the Spanish Flu.
- The average population for the U.S. in this period was 105 million. Today, 327 million. Thus the 675,000 deaths would proportionally today be 2.1 million. The latest White House speculation is 60,000 COVID-19 deaths in the nation when this is all over. For the U.S. then, the deaths/million would be 183 for COVID-19 and 6422 for the Spanish Flu.
- The deaths/million population for Hawaii was 9132 for the Spanish Flu. The population of Hawaii in 1920 was around 256,000. Today, 1.4 million. Hawaii has 5 COVID-19 deaths, so the deaths/ million rate today is 25, and using the same factor of increase to the final total as the U.S., goes up to 105.
- Both the world deaths and per million rate for COVID-19 should probably double or triple from the current. So I just simply multiplied the current 87,465 by 2.5 and listed the deaths/million from 20-30.
COVID-19* Spanish Flu
World USA Hawaii World USA Hawaii
Total deaths 220,000 60,000 105 50,000,000 675,000 2338+
Deaths/million 20-30 183 75 2778 6422 9132+
So how serious is COVID-19 compared to the Spanish Flu?
- To appreciate the fact that our world population is not 1.8 billion (1919) but 7.5 billion (today), chances are that the 50 million Spanish Flu deaths should have been 208 million today.
- Thus, COVID-19 deaths need to jump by a factor of 2378, or from the 87,465 today to 208,000,000 deaths to match the lethality of the Spanish Flu. However, it is appearing that World deaths are at or near a plateau, so the expectation is that world deaths will only double or triple to, say 220,000, when this pandemic ends.
- Using this death total for COVID-19, that would be less than 0.003% of the world population. The Spanish Flu killed almost 3% of the world population. Thus, one way of looking at this, if the COVID-19 Pandemic adheres to current projections, is that it is 1000 times less serious than the Spanish Flu.
- By logical deduction, COVID-19 is pathetically insignificant when compared to the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920.
- However, world attitudes have significantly changed over the past century. For a pandemic that is tragic, but paltry, the World economy has crashed. Tomorrow I'll explore why.
Closing on a lighter note, people send me stuff to include. Finally, I note that President Trump is wearing mask, and how appropriate:
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