From Worldometer, I continue this table to show how new deaths best determine the phase of COVID-19:
DAY China Italy USA Spain Germany S. Korea WORLD
Apr 21 ? 534 1481 430 86 1 5362
22 ? 437 931 435 125 1 5008
23 ? 464 1435 440 54 2 5033
24 0? 420 718 367 78 0? 4200
25 0? 415 1073 378 59 0? 4650
26 0? 260 779 288 19 2 3102
27 1 333 762 331 9 1 2816
Summary:
23 ? 464 1435 440 54 2 5033
24 0? 420 718 367 78 0? 4200
25 0? 415 1073 378 59 0? 4650
26 0? 260 779 288 19 2 3102
27 1 333 762 331 9 1 2816
Summary:
- A good day for humanity, as the World has dropped in new deaths for three straight days: 4650 to 3102 to 2816.
- The U.S. in not increasing in new deaths, but today was higher than Friday.
- China and South Korea are down to 1 new death.
- Germany is into a single digit.
I'll focus on tests today. Here is a table with minor significance as I can determine:
Country Deaths / Million People Tests / Million People
USA 170 16,977
Mexico 10 525
Spain 530 28,779
Italy 446 29,600
France 350 7,103
Germany 71 24,738
Portugal 91 32,414
India 0.6 482
Ecuador 33 3,203
Israel 23 34,971
Saudi Arabia 4 5,745
Qatar 3 29,749
Bahrain 5 68,980
UAE 8 106,904
Sweden 225 9,357
Denmark 74 26,900
Norway 38 30,310
Finland 35 14,878
Iceland 29 135,833
However, you can detect trends. In Scandinavia, Sweden took the economy over health route by avoiding any serious lockout, plus took fewer tests. But their death rate is much higher than partner countries.
Mexico is right next to the USA, but they are on the low end of testing, and has 1/17 the death rate of the U.S. India is right next to Mexico in tests/million, but their death rate is 1/283 that of the U.S. Probably, if a country is not beleaguered by deaths, they don't need to bother with tests.
Africa has hardly any deaths and they are very, very low on test rate. Algeria has the most deaths, 432, and they are about the average in test rate at 148 tests/million.
Israel tests at more than double the test rate and thus has one-fifth the death rate of the USA. But when you compare them with their equally well-to-do countries in their region, they test about average compared to them, but have a death rate five times higher. Those rich countries of the Middle East are all between a low 2-8 deaths/million, but the rate of testing varies from 5,745 to 106,904, and the highest tested country, UAE, had the highest death rate. But 8 is less than 1/20 that of the USA.
Yet every medical group has indicated that the whole range of testing is absolutely necessary to insure for a safe return to economic normalcy, with a vaccine as early as possible to prevent future pandemics. Donald Trump keeps bragging that we are by far the country that tests the most people. He is right. But that is because we have a larger country. If you divide the number of tests by our population, you get 1.7% tested. However, the number is even lower because those who are sick got more than one test.
Also, Trump has said too many times that we're doing a GREAT JOB on testing. We have been averaging more recently only a million tests per week, and since the beginning of this pandemic more than two months ago, only 5.6 million total tests. Medical authorities feel that we need 20 million tests/day.
Testing 101:
- Pre-test to identify infection by COVID-19:
- Mostly RT-PCR (Polymerize Chain Reaction), starting with a swab. Will be difficult to scale-up. This is essentially the test that takes several days for results, and also the Abbot Labs 5-minute test. About $50/test.
- Antigen test, using a swab, not yet quite ready, but should give results in minutes and can be quickly up-scaled. Tests for Dengue and Zika were 90-95% accurate, a figure that might apply to this coronavirus. Perhaps $10/test. As much as this will be an even bigger game changer than the Abbott option, there are experts who say that antigen tests will not ever be developed. Companies like E25Bio, Gehrke, Tang and OraSure are involved.
- Post-test sero-survey of antibodies (IgM and IgG), which peak around 9-11 days after infection, which generally needs a drop of blood.
A particularly scary unknown is that 20-80% of COVID-19 cases could be asymptomatic (meaning the symptoms are anywhere from none to very minor). All the above tests would be able to identify this group.
We should be in decent shape by mid-summer regarding pre-testing, for the 5-minute Abbott Labs test machine will have increased in production by 50,000 day today, to 2 million/day. Each device can make 470 tests/day. All the better if an antigen system can be successful.
Abbott also has a post-test serology antibody test, and says it will be able to have available 20 million available in June. This one gives results in 6.5 hours. However, I haven't yet heard if this option is truly accurate. There are numerous other companies in competition, but the pervading medical opinion is that post-test options are less than reliable. One problem is that the Food and Drum Administration allowed more than 120 manufacturers into the marketplace without agency review.
As part of any national plan for economic re-development, there needs to be an effective contact tracing program, something that is spotty today. Some time back I suggested that the military be used to work with those mega-tech firms. This pandemic war is today. Boots-on-the-ground soldiers are "only" training for the future, but a lot of them can be assigned to serve this role...now...if some leadership can be shown by the White House.
About the matter of the vaccine? Maybe someday, luckily in a year, but a couple of days ago I thought that an internal partnership would be the most effective way to find one as soon as possible.
I can't seem to find the Top 30 Songs of 1964. So here is Billboard's Top 100 of 1964 in 17 minutes. However, there is a Top 30 Songs of 1965. I'm trying to think what I was doing in those two years, and the best I can remember is working at the Hutchinson Sugar Company and going fishing. See that smoke? Comes from the factory. Close by was a pier where I fished. That's Pearl and her car back then.
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