- The first coronavirus case in China was exactly four months ago, 17 November 2019.
- As of this morning, there were around 7000 deaths, infecting a number approaching 200,000 worldwide. That's 57 killed per day.
- Every DAY, 3287 people die in traffic accidents. That's 401,014 deaths on the road the past four months. Plus another 16.7 million injuries.
So here we are today, globally: 236,886 cases and 9,828 deaths, with 885 new deaths. Looks fearsome. This is why the media and society have reacted so alarmingly. But compare 79 COVID-19 deaths/day with the 3287 traffic deaths/day.
Another wonderment. We had the Swine Flu Pandemic in the 2008-2009 period. Up to 575,500 people died. However there was no stock market crash and nothing was really shut down for any length of time. People still went to work. Why the difference? For one, a lot of people got infected with the H1N1 virus (around 18% the world population), but the death rate was only 0.04%. The seasonal flu kills you at a 0.1% rate. So far only 0.003% of the world has caught the coronavirus, but those over 80 die at an 18% rate, and the average in general is today around 4%. This is a hundred times worse than the Swine Flu Pandemic. People are afraid of dying. When all is said and done, when there is a better handle on the actual number infected by COVID-19, I would not be surprised if that 4% drops in half, if not more. Still scary for many.
For a while I mostly used data from the World Health Organization. However, they kept getting the wrong numbers in their daily summary. So I turned to Worldometer. Here are the statistics for yesterday and today:
March 18, 2020
March 19, 2020
The bottom line for Americans is, how are we doing relative to the World? Mind you, just two days of info are insufficient to make any kind of conclusion. However, you can begin to detect a trend with only two data points:
- Clearly, China has the coronavirus under control. Note that the total number of cases per million people, 56/1M, relative to Europe, is low. Less than one-tenth that of Italy, at 679/1M.
- The U.S. was half that of China, 28/1M, and is continuing to increase. You can probably expect a doubling (11,354 to more than 20,000) when comprehensive testing is reached. Even then, the cases/1M will probably only reach that of China and get nowhere close to Italy. Damn Trump, but we have done relatively well.
- South Korea also has things in hand, but at 167/1M cases, they got hit hard, quickly, but reacted well. The country had seven new deaths from yesterday.
- Japan has been spectacular (considering what happened on the Diamond Princess, which is home-ported in Yokohama), for their total cases rest at 7/1M. They did something right, but could well postpose the Summer Olympics (starts July 24) because of the danger of incoming visitors. Prime Minister Abe is waiting as long as he can, hoping the World peaks by May.
The above in itself is interesting, but the key to understanding this pandemic is the number of NEW deaths, and how that changes daily. The kill rate seems to be plateauing in Italy (however, Italy shot pass China, 3405 vs 3245--look at those tables) and Iran. Spain continues to shoot up. Nowhere in the world is there a similar uptick at this time. Most countries haven't tested much, but they seem to do well on confirming COVID-19 deaths, so today no other country shows anything like Italy, Iran and Spain.
Particularly, with all the startling societal precautions being taken and financial experts worrying about the coming depression, take a look at the number of coronavirus deaths in the USA. Day ending on November 19 (yesterday) = 41. Day ending on November 20 (today) = 21. This figure for November 21 (tomorrow) will significantly affect whether this recession will continue, quickly reach normal, or head into depression.
Just as a possible sign, mind you, for no consequential determinations can be made with three consecutive days of data. But a week from today, take a close look at the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. over the past 24 hours. If approaching 1000/day, oops, we will be like Europe. But if way less than 100, the epidemic in the USA will be as good as over! If fewer than 20, celebrate.
There will still be more new cases as test kits become more available. But as the death rate should be between one and two percent for the general population, the worry over avoiding people, cancellation of sporting events and panic in the stock market, will switch to starting the Major League Baseball season by May, re-activating shopping malls, re-opening schools, resurgence of the Dow Jones and a return to the dining room in 15 Craigside. All by the end of April!!!
They found that during the four decades of analysis - from 1976 to 2013 - the BMI associated with lowest risk of death increased from 23.7 to 27.
If your BMI is between 18.5 and 24.9, you're considered normal or 'healthy', and if your BMI is between 25 and 29.9, you're considered 'overweight'. A BMI of 30 or more is classified as 'obese'.
The study also found that those in the 'obese' category ended up having the same risk of death as those in the 'normal' range, even when factors such as age, sex, family history of disease, socio-economic status, and smoking were taken into account.
This means that in the past 40 years, the weight category associated with the longest lifespan has gone from 'normal' to squarely in the 'overweight' camp, which suggests that either our classification for 'normal' weight is wrong, or the link between our weight and our overall health is far more complicated than we thought.
Well, anyway, I still think exercise is important, as everyone does, but at my age, walking 18 holes might be totally unnecessary. A little light weight and condition training on those devices in a fitness center might be all that is necessary, plus maybe a once a week walk home uphill from downtown Honolulu, about 1.5 miles. I can now, apparently, go up to 164 pounds and live longer. In any case, I'm still in euphoria and plan to play poker tonight. We move the table from the corner, but still sit rather close to each other, so this certainly does not comply with the social distancing recommendation. But my prevailing attitude on this day is to continue to enjoy life as much as possible.
Nice to have a friend who thinks of you:
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