COVID-19: Is this Pandemic Worsening?

The World Health Organization releases a daily report on the global status of the novel coronavirus disease.    That is WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom.

The following table shows some weekly trends, beginning with February 7 (TC=total cases, ND=new deaths during past week, TC=total deaths)

                    World                           China                        Italy                   USA

               TC       ND     TD          TC      ND      TD           TC    ND   TD      TC     ND  TD

F   7     31481    425      638     31211    424      637           3      0       0       12      2      2

F 14     49053  1169    1383     48548    744    1381           3      0       0       15      0      2

F 21     76769  1148    2347     75569    858    2239           3      0      0        15      0      2

F 28     83652    511    2858     78961    552    2791       650    17    17        59      0      2
M  6    98192    275    3133     80711     254   3045     3858  131   148      148      8    10
M13  132758  1822    4955     80991    135    3180   15113  868 1016    1264    26    36

It's so tedious to analyze that table above.  The bottom line is that China has overcome this pandemic, while Italy and USA have a ways to go.  I'll repeat this table on a daily basis (not weekly) over the next week to see where these countries are headed.

South Korea has reacted rather well:

                   TC    ND     TD
Feb    7       24       0         0
Feb  14       28       0         0       
Feb  21     204       0         1
Feb  28   2337       1       13
Mar   6   6284     29       42
Mar 13   7979     24       66

Plus the mortality rate is only 0.83%, or less than 1%.  WHAT HAPPENED?   They moved with dispatch:

A nation of 51 million, South Korea has tested about 250,000 people since its outbreak began on Jan. 20, with a daily capacity of 15,000. It has conducted 3,600 tests per million people compared to five per million in the U.S.

That blip of 242 on March 11?  On March 13, over the past 24 hours, there were 110 new cases.

How did South Korea react so quickly?  A biotech company, Seegene, began to make testing kits before the name COVID-19 was selected and FOUR DAYS BEFORE THE COUNTRY CONFIRMED ITS FIRST CASE.  It usually takes the country 1.5 years to approve this kind of test kit.  It took ONE WEEK!  The company stopped production of 50 other products and focused on this urgent need.  Quickly, the central government established 118 test facilities, many with drive-in service.  All free.  WHERE IS THE USA???

So in a nutshell, with federal government commitment, this pandemic can be controlled.  However, some governments are challenged.  Italy, certainly.  With Donald Trump at the top, the USA now, too.  There is fear about a spread to Africa.

Today, cases approaching 135,000 with at least 5000 deaths.  How would this COVID-19 pandemic compare with  historic afflictions?

• HIV/AIDS (mostly 2005-2012):  36 million deaths (this all started in the Congo, where the latest Ebola outbreak is now just under control)--around 35 million today are living with HIV, but treatments have improved.
• Did you know there was a 1968 flu pandemic with a million deaths, half in Hong Kong?  Thus called the Hong Kong Flu, this was the H3N2 virus.  Mortality rate was 0.5%, about five times worse than the seasonal flu.
• Also, there was an Asian Flu, 1956-58, caused by the H2N2 virus, originating in China.  Two million deaths, 69,800 in the U.S.  No stock market or sports cancellation panic then.
• The infamous Spanish Flu of 1918, extending to 1920, was caused by the H1N1 virus, where as many as 50 million probably died.
• Sixth Cholera Pandemic of 1910-1911, originating in India, killed over 800,000.  This was the final one which affected the U.S., with only 11 deaths.
• Flu Pandemic of 1889-1890, known as the Asiatic or Russian Flu, which started in three places at once, Turkey, Canada and Greenland.  Caused by the H2N2 virus, the death toll was over a million.
• The Third Cholera Pandemic (1852-1860), originated in India, where contaminated water was identified as the means of transmission.  About a million deaths.
• The Black Death (1346 to 1353), bubonic plague, killed up to 200 million.  The population of the world then was around 400 million, so fleas on rats almost wiped out Humanity.  The world population in 1300 was higher than 1400.

The population today is just over 7.5 billion, so the coronavirus has killed 0.000067% of the world population.  

The current death rate, once at 3.4%, seems now, with more testing, to be down to 2%.  From BuzzFeed News:

If South Korea is a good example, this figure should drop to 1% or less.  The seasonal flu death rate is around 0.1%.

Women must be superior:

If you have a pre-existing condition, stay home and eat well:

However, people like me who are old are a lot more at risk, 74 times more than anyone from 0-39 years old:

Part of this higher rate is that old people have more pre-existing conditions.  If you are old and unhealthy, stay home.  A little more than two-weeks after returning from Thailand, I feel well, with no pre-existing conditions, but my post tomorrow will feature my new normal lifestyle, for even I have been influenced by the media.

Yesterday The New York Times speculated that the number of deaths in the U.S. could be from half a million to a million.  These are worst case scenarios, but this gloomy projection came from infectious disease epidemiologists.  As we're just 4.23% the population of the world, does this mean more than a billion global deaths?  Maybe the stock market and those people cancelling everything involving crowds know something I don't.  Hope not.

China is triumphing, and South Korea is just about there.  I think the odds remain reasonable that the peak of COVID-19 deaths will drop by May, when the seasonal flu season ends.  Historic pandemics tended to end then.

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