Day 114 of the Lower Puna Eruption, and the USGS merely mentions that activity has greatly diminished, not ended.
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Hurricane Lane is now a Category 2 at 105 MPH and still heading straight for me.
I live in Honolulu on Oahu at a decent elevation. I am, though, in the cone of danger. Waikiki is five miles closer at the coastline, and then there is the Ala Wai Canal, which has overflowed several times in recent history. Waikiki could become the equivalent of Venice.
Sure, most computer models show Lane making a left turn to the west within 24 hours, but as the track has been a straight line towards my apartment for 48 hours now, I remain concerned, especially since:
- Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said: I've watched a lot of forecasts in my life, and thing about it is, any time you see a 90-degree turn to the west over the next 48 to 72 hours, there's a lot of uncertainty.
- Richard Henning, research meteorologist with NOAA who made three flights into Lane this week in a WP03D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" as the flight director: It will be bad news for Oahu if the storm is stronger today than the Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast, because that will make a turn to the left more unlikely before it gets to Oahu. Everyone on Oahu should be prepared to take a direct hit.
Stores are out of water and many other hurricane stuff, while power is out all over the place, but the major problem thus far has been the rain, especially in the general Hilo area, with Hakalau getting around 30 inches. To the left behind me is Rainbow Falls, which was the location Pearl's Ashes #1. Here is a 2.5 minute clip of the water flow yesterday. Frightening!
The good news is that, like the latest Puna eruption, there have been no deaths. Of all the unexpected things, though, is that the only injury thus far has been from burns. You'd think the rain would have dampened everything, but high winds have stirred up a serious brush fire on Maui.
Back to 15 Craigside, if Lane keeps heading straight for me, my building is exactly perpendicular to the path, so the wind direction should be, first to the Diamond Head side of the building, then, after the eye passes, to the Ewa side of the building. We are adjacent to Nuuanu Stream (that green band), which could overflow, but I'm on the 10th floor.
My bathtub is one of only three in this building, and I am ready. Note the Toto Washlet I recently added.
So I await Hurricane Lane, which is now over the horizon from where I am composing this posting. I hope my blog tomorrow is disappointingly boring. Better get this out before we lose electricity.
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