A MONSTER CALLED DORIAN IS HEADED FOR FLORIDA

Yesterday I reported that Hurricane Dorian would make landfall as a Category 2 close to where the Florida Solar Energy Center once was located.  No more, for the latest projection is as a monster Category 4, but with the eye making contact with a portion of Florida without any major population concentration:  somewhat north of Vero Beach.

However, something about Dorian, but prognosticators keep changing their predictions, for the following map remains possible:

Dorian reminds me of Super Hurricane Andrew at the end of August in 1992.  I quote Wikipedia:

Andrew began as a tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 16. After spending a week without significantly strengthening itself in the central Atlantic, it rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5 hurricane while moving westward towards the Bahamas on August 23. 

Though it briefly weakened to Category 4 status while traversing the Bahamas, it regained Category 5 intensity before making landfall in Florida on Elliott Key and then Homestead on August 24. With a barometric pressure of 922 mbar (27.23 inHg) at the time of landfall in Florida, Andrew is the sixth most-intense hurricane to strike the United States. 

Several hours later, the hurricane emerged over the Gulf of Mexico at Category 4 strength, with the Gulf Coast of the United States in its dangerous path. After turning northwestward and weakening further, Andrew moved ashore near Morgan City, Louisiana, as a low-end Category 3 storm. After moving inland, the small hurricane curved northeastward and rapidly lost its intensity, merging with a frontal system over the southern Appalachian Mountains on August 29.

Interestingly enough, just around the time Andrew began to form, a tropical wave exited the AFRICAN coast, and moved across the Atlantic, brushed South America, crossed Central America near Panama on August 28, the day before Andrew lost hurricane status.  On September 5, this "wave" became Tropical depression 18-E, 2500 east-southwest of Hilo.

I remember this period well because I spent my birthday the next day in Eugene, with my wife and brother plus wife, where we went on the 7th to a football game where the University of Hawaii beat Oregon.  That day a nondescript depression became Tropical Storm Iniki.  On September 9 it was upgraded to Hurricane Iniki.  We were driving to Colorado Springs, but spent September 10 in a Salt Lake City motel.  I turned on the TV and saw Iniki appearing to be just south of Honolulu.  I tried to call contacts back home, but could not reach anyone.  

On September 11 Hurricane Iniki at a peak of 145 MPH struck Kauai.  However, the Navy's Makaha Ridge radar station recorded a gust of 227 MPH.  Six were killed and damages of up to $10 billion (in 2019 dollars) were caused.  

How do I know so much?  A good friend from NOAA, John Carey, led the Department of Commerce team that documented the whole story of Hurricane Iniki.

We went to the UH-Air Force game, won by Hawaii, 6-3.  The Air Force Academy this year comes to Honolulu on October 19.

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