Yesterday, the recent First Ladies of Japan. Today, an interesting economic comparison and the changing nature of tourism, plus two films, Inception and Salt.
In 1989, the Japan Nikkei attained an all time high of 38,916. Today, 9431, a drop of a little more than 75%. That same day in 1989 the Dow Jones Industrial Average rested at 2,753. Today, 10,428, an increase of of 379%. In this decade period the Gross Domestic Product of Japan increased from $2.9 trillion to $5.1 trillion, up a bit more than 200%, while the U.S. jumped from $5.4 trillion to $14.3 trillion, +265%.
Two observations. If you subscribe to the theory that you should jump into the stock market when it bottoms, this is not quite the six and seven thousand range of both the Nikkei and DJIA of the late 2008 to March 2009 period. However, the Nikkei surged into the 11,000 range 15 months ago, then fell, and has been languishing in the mid to low 9000's for a long time now. Second, yes, Japan's debt to GDP ratio is twice that of the U.S. (200% to 100%, approximately), but they owe most of this debt to their people and among its very own departments. Somehow, I think the Nikkei is something worth watching if their exchange rate (87 yen to the dollar today) begins increasing.
The Japanese tourist rate to Hawaii and the USA is declining, and precipitously. First, Hawaii historically draws more than twice the number of these visitors than any state, which is California. In 1997, Japanese arrivals to Hawaii peaked at 2.2 million. Last year, the number dropped in half to 1.1 million. Our luxury stores are in deep trouble. Fuel surcharge could be a factor, but many still go to Europe with almost twice the added cost. Korea is a lot cheaper, and China is gaining. Maybe Hawaii has become boring. Take, for example, China Beach in Vietnam. Can you imagine a beautiful sandy beach about 100 yards wide from Waikiki Beach to Wahiawa? In case you don't know where Wahiawa is, it is twenty miles away from Waikiki. Plus more casinos coming. No, not Waikiki, Viet Nam. Hawaii and Utah are the only two states banning gambling. Or Korea? From my blog of earlier this year:
6. Universal Studios will build a $2.7 billion theme park in Gyeonggi Province (37 miles southwest of Seoul). Paramount Pictures and MGM will also construct resort parks in Incheon. Eight such Seoul developments are expected to be in operation by 2012, and fourteen when you count the rest of the country. They hope to attract lots of visitors from China and Japan. HAWAII, WHAT ARE WE DOING?
The two biggest movies this weekend will be Inception and Salt. Inception was #1 last week, and will continue so this week. You can read the reviews, but you won't know what's happening in Inception throughout the movie, and even at the end. In Salt, you think you know what is happening and you will be wrong, until the end. The former will mystify you even after your third viewing, while the latter becomes obvious only at the very end. I might never quite understand Inception.
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