Part 2, which was published today in the Huffington Post, was a philosophical overview. Today, I will return to the basics. We need energy to keep us comfortable, move us around and power our industries. Thus, think in terms of electricity, ground transport and aviation.
Over the past few decades, most of our R&D effort has been devoted to renewable electricity from our winds, sun, ground heat and the ocean. Relative to existing coal/fossil generation, wind power is just about there (the wheeling remains an important cost factor), solar thermal is getting close and utility scale solar photovoltaics still require a few breakthroughs. Government incentives and the fact that a resident will not be faced with transmission costs make PV something to consider today, although the competitiveness becomes questionable if these federal and state credits are terminated. If it is true that carbon capture coal plants and new nuclear facilities will produce electricity for from 15 cents to 30 cents/kWh, then, of course, even PV begins to make sense.
To replace gasoline and the internal combustion engine, research is progressing on developing bioliquids, batteries and the fuel cell. Ethanol from corn continues to be a terrible idea, and the hydrolysis and fermentation of the fiber into more ethanol will not be as cost effective as gasification/catalysis into methanol, especially if a DMFC can be developed. Unfortunately, the Farm Lobby, in particular, has been successful in preventing R&D on biomethanol, so timing now becomes a huge problem, for Peak Oil is right around the corner.
While I have expressed some reservations (coal will continue to be mostly used in power plants for the next couple of decades), we might as well see how the lithium plug-in car can compete. My highest recommendation is to initiate a full court press on the direct methanol fuel cell, for this system will take a vehicle five times further than any battery. Hydrogen, at this time, remains too expensive to produce with no existing infrastructure. Plus, why bother with a gas when one gallon of methanol has more accessible hydrogen than a gallon of liquid hydrogen. In the transition, a DMFC-battery system seems ideal, again, save for the fact that the DMFC is at least a decade away, and might never be developed. Toshiba is beginning to market the DMFC for portable applications, as electronic devices can run two to five times longer with this power source relative to batteries.
The third area, and one of utmost importance to Hawaii, is finding a substitute for jet fuel and/or commercializing a next generation jetliner. Why? Because tourism is our only industry, and visitors will stop coming to Hawaii when oil skyrockets to $150/barrel and a trip to our state becomes too expensive. In a bad case scenario, Hawaii will be the canary in the coal mine for a major depression. Ominously, it will take a generation to develop either aviation option, and the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming should strike in a decade or less. Is this hopeless? No, but the development of sustainable aviation should be our (Hawaii's) highest priority because very little is being done and we do have the political clout (Senator Daniel Inouye is now the most powerful person in Congress and President Barack Obama was born in this state). The book on the left was written by Dan Brewer of Lockheed in 1991. While now dated, I honor him, because with Willis Hawkins, also of Lockheed, they were instrumental in passage of the Act to Establish the Spark M. Matsunaga Hydrogen Research, Development, and Demonstration Program Act of 1990
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.In Part 4 I will provide further details.
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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 41 to 9733, with world markets also mostly down. Gold fell $38/toz to $1203 and crude oil is just under $73/barrel.
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There are no major storms over our oceans.
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