ONLY AN IMPERFECT STORM INTO THE NOVEMBER 6 MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Day 175 of the Lower Puna Eruption, and nothing.

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A dozen days to November 6 and the USA is on the verge of validating the reign of President Donald Trump, or not.  Here is the current sad state of the nation:

• The economy:
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday fell 606 points, but that is not even in the top ten of all-time one-day lows.  The worst three?
• #1  -1175 on February 2 of this year
• #2  -1033 on February 8 of this year
• #3  -  832 on October 10 of this year
• Is this precarious metastability a sign of something worse to come?
• The two largest world economies (China and the USA) are in a serious trade war, and no talks are currently planned:

The tariff rate will increase from 10% to 25% in January 2019, and U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on another $267 billion worth of imports if China retaliates. That would then cover the entire $505 billion in Chinese imports to the U.S. in 2017.

• Actually, I'm with Trump on the basic unfairness of this all, but our trade partners got used to our being nice for the sake of politics.  So Trump says no more, and while he is right, the world is now on the edge of something worse to come.

• President Donald Trump will be pulling out of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, but because of the way this treaty is written, he can't until November of 2020 (which happens to be when he will kicked out of office anyway).
• In the meantime, change in the leadership of Brazil is a sign that it, too, will pull out.
• French President Emmanuel Macron, the guardian of the effort, indicated that the European Union will end free trade with the USA because this agreement says that will be need to be done if the U.S. leaves.
• However, Macron himself is now in trouble in his own country because of his environmental attitude.  What is the problem?  Macron is listening to lobbyists and not doing much about global warming.  His environment minister Nicolas Hulot just resigned.
• In the meantime, what about states like California or counties across the country railing that they will unilaterally take necessary environmental protection measures even if Trump withdraws?  Forget it!!! The nature of global warming reality is that everyone will need to be in agreement or it will not work.  Those who conscientiously take protective steps will not be able to economically compete with those who do not.
• So what is the bottom line?  If the next president of the USA does abandon the Paris Agreement, Planet Earth is doomed.

• War or Peace?
• Last week President Trump announced that the U.S. will withdraw from the nuclear arms treaty with Russia.
• Worse, earlier this week:

President Donald Trump told reporters Monday that the United States would increase its nuclear arsenal until other nations "come to their senses," threatening an arms race days after he said he would withdraw the US from a Cold War nuclear treaty.

• He specifically stated that not only is Russia cheating, but why is China not in this agreement, anyway?  Good point.  Oh, Russia responded by saying they are not violating anything, why blame us?
• We are already spending more for war than the next seven nations combined:

• Incidentally, did you notice in the above bar graph that Saudi Arabia now has a higher defense budget than Russia?  Much to purchase armaments from the U.S.  This is the primary reason why Trump continues to waffle on the Khashoggi matter.

• Trump last year said we are paying too much to the United Nations.  With 25% of the World Gross National Product (WGNP) we supply 22% the annual UN budget.  China, with 14% the WGNP only provides 8%.  But Japan, 6% the WGNP bankrolls nearly 10% the UN cost.  The European Union picks up 30% the tab.

• While this is hardly War vs Peace, guns are akin to war, and here is a graphic that surely must mean something (note:  these are not people killed--these are number of separate school shootings):

A Gallup poll reported earlier this year of 134 countries on world leadership showing that Trump's USA has dropped to a new low of 30% from the 48% during the final year of Barack Obama's term.

In the USA, Trump's approval rating actually has improved a bit, now at 43%.  However disapproval is at 52%.  The chances of Republicans retaining control of the House after November 6 is, as of two days ago, between 1 in 7 and 2 in 9.  In other words, the Democrats will most likely regain control over the House of Representatives.  However, there is only 1 chance in 6 of Democrats becoming the majority party in the Senate.

Ah, but on 3 November 2020, it will be Trump versus, no doubt, a female Democrat.  Michelle Obama?  That would be fun.  Most of the Senate incumbents running for re-election will be Republicans (red states):

I've already almost forgotten 6 November 2018.  However, I'm getting excited about 3 November 2020.

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Super Typhoon Yutu is now only Typhoon Yutu, but still a Category 4, and currently projected to move further south, more probably towards the northern Philippines rather than Taiwan:

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