MY STORY OF WIND ENERGY

A little more that a decade ago, my SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth reviewed the status of wind energy.  Amazingly enough, nothing much has really changed.  Wind power remains promising, but with an unexpectant backlash.  You can read that chapter if you want something organized in textbook form, providing the science and engineering of this technology.   Since the beginning of this blog I have regularly updated this field, as can be viewed in my WIND ENERGY TODAY posted five years ago or last year in WIND ENERGY:  A Success Story. What follows today are almost anecdotes, beginning with my wind background, the latest developments, and the future.  Into the future I will be devoting Wednesdays to something more technical and closely related to Planet Earth and Humanity

My life in wind energy is just another of my regular fantasies that became reality.  To the right my photo with Sharon Miyashiro, a University of Hawaii colleague and once golf partner, who was this past year elected a Hawaii state senator, and I'm sure will accomplish something important in renewable energy.  She drives a Leaf, a plug-in electric car.  About me, first of all, my PhD is in biochemical engineering.  So how did I get involved in this particular renewable energy field?   In a way, this is symptomatic of my entire life.

...in 1973 came the first energy crisis.  The dean of engineering, John Shupe, convened a meeting of ten faculty, gave us a list of ten topics to choose, starting with the most senior member, and the tenth one left for me as the newest hire was wind energy.  So I became the wind power "expert "for the state.

Not knowing anything about the technology, except that the power produced varied with the CUBE of the wind speed--after all, I am an engineer--I appreciated that Hawaii had an incredible advantage, for winds are high in specific locations so I went into action:

I left “My Life” (go to May 10 blog) in 1974 on a plane from Washington, D.C. to Denver, Colorado. I drove to the annual conference of the American Solar Energy Society (ASES), and arrived just in time to walk into a semi-darkened room of the annual meeting of the Wind Power Division, which had already started. An hour or so later towards the end of the meeting I volunteered a somewhat optimistic statement about Hawaii wanting to lead the nation in wind power R&D, and that I was “asked” by Lou Divone (who then ran the government's wind power office--this is pre-Department of Energy--and who I had just met in the Forrestal Building) to interact with this Division. I don’t think I exaggerated anything and sincerely asked for their help. Half an hour later, I was elected chairman of that Wind Division of the American Solar Energy Society. At that moment I had not yet even seen a windmill in my life. There was an important life lesson learned here, but let me go on.

While I coordinated the early advance of wind energy in Hawaii in the seventies, my primary role was to find someone who had the credibility to lead the way.  Luckily, Frank Eldridge was in that ASES audience, who was then chairman of that division.  Anyway, I talked Frank and his wife to relocate to Hawaii:

...we had the good fortune to bring to Hawaii Frank Eldridge, who I had replaced as wind division chairman, and who had at that time written the definitive book on the subject (Wind Machines, Mitre, with the Second Edition published in 1980 by Van Nostrand Reinhold Company). In relatively short order, mostly because of the excellent monitoring work accomplished by the meteorological scientists at the University of Hawaii and the progressive attitude of Hawaiian Electric Company, Hawaii became a world leader in the pre-commercialization of the technology.

We were among the first to test-out large wind machines:

The 200 kW Westinghouse MOD-OA wind farm was installed in the Kahuku Hills of Oahu beginning in 1980, and in 1987 the largest WECS ever built in those days, the 3.2 megawatt Boeing MOD-5B machine, (left) came on line at this location. This behemoth had a tip-to-tip propeller length longer (320 feet) than a football field. This was the last of the Federal wind energy conversion systems. Various commercial wind farms followed on the Big Island, then, Maui.

One of the reasons why Hawaii is ideal for this alternative is that the high volcanoes channel the winds, amplifying the velocity:

However, note that our best wind regimes are located in the ocean.  Unfortunately, progressive wind systems only moor their turbines near the coastline, and they cost more than twice as much as land farms.  The next stage for Hawaii and a good part of the world is when the technology advances to the stage where devices can be placed on floating platforms that, using rudders, move in a predictable gyre, storing, say hydrogen, in a bladder, which can be floated to port to power fuel celled vehicles.  I show the photo of Hiro Eto, for he is a visiting professor from Nihon University who is using my campus office, possibly to be the first to design something close to that.

But back to history, that hardback to the right is the cover of a text I co-authored, published in 1979, just before I joined the staff of U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga.  To quote:

In 1979 found myself  on staff with the U.S. Senate in DC.  Tom Gray, a House staff member had drafted some wind energy legislation, so I signed on to help out in the Senate, and we succeeded with the Wind Energy Systems Act of 1980.  Tom went on to help found the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), and served as Executive Director from 1981-1989. Interestingly enough, Ed Ing, General Counsel for Senator Matsunaga, who shared the same office area with me and a few others, went on to become chairman of the AWEA board.

What was the general feeling in the mid-80's about the future of wind energy?

I remember three decades ago visiting the Department of Energy Wind Energy Test Center near Boulder, Colorado, where I met the manager, Andrew Trenka.  Not long thereafter, I hired him to move to Honolulu to head the ocean thermal energy conversion program for the Pacific International Center for High Technology.  His crew succeeded in 1993 with a major OTEC facility of 255 kW (gross) at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority.  More than 20 years have passed by and no one has yet built anything larger.  Anyway, in the 1990's we marveled at how well wind energy had developed, something WE DID NOT IN THE MID-80'S EXPECT.

Let me repeat, thirty years ago the person running the U.S. DOE Wind Energy Test Center and I, who helped pass the original wind legislation and chaired the Wind Division of the American Solar Energy Society, had no inkling that wind energy would be so successful.

Sure, there yet is more hydroelectric electricity, but growth is rather limited, and opposition is more and more preventing new ones.  Yes, geothermal is considered to be the cheapest energy source today, but even Hawaii has had serious problems with this option, from residents and something called lava.  Unfortunately, wind energy too has met resistance here.  I will have a geo-presentation on a Wednesday later this month.

The huge advantage of wind energy is that the resource is widespread and the cost of electricity generation has dramatically decllined.  Here is an analysis that shows wind and geo are among the very lowest cost  options available:

Geothermal energy is the cheapest, by far, at 4.8 cents/kWh, while natural gas is at 7.3 cents/kWh and onshore wind is 7.4 cents/kWh.  Note that offshore wind averages 19.7 cents/kWh and solar PV is at 12.5 cents/kWh.  Coal is at 11.6 cents/kWh and nuclear at 9.5 cents/kWh.  If you can't read the graph or understand the details, click on the source.

As a counterpoint, and I'll cover this subject later, another source says that utility-PV is less than half the cost of the figure cited above:

Utility-scale solar PV is hot on wind’s heels: It is the second-cheapest energy source. The high end of solar PV’s LCOE range (US$43–53/MWh) is lower than that of any other generation source.6 A record 93.7 GW—more than the total capacity in 2011 (69 GW)—was added globally in 2017 across 187 countries, bringing the total capacity to 386 GW, led by China, Japan, Germany, the United States, Italy, India, and the United Kingdom.7

In the U.S. last year for electricity production:

• fossil fuels   63%
• nuclear         20%
• Renewables 17%
• hydropower  7.4%
• wind             6.3%
• biomass        1.6%
• solar             1.3%

Thus, from almost nothing several decades ago to 539,000 MW of wind energy worldwide a year ago, and growing.  That's the equivalent of 500 nuclear power plants.  Well, sort of, as nuclear power plants run at higher power capacities than intermittent sources from the wind and sun:

• nuclear        92%
• geothermal  76%
• natural gas  55%
• coal             54%
• biomass       51%
• hydro           46%
• wind            37%
• solar PV      27%

Today, 121 countries have deployed wind energy conversion devices.  In the U.S., the lowest cost facilities are in the Great Plains and Texas.  According to Bloomberg, both onshore wind and solar PV generation costs fell 18% just in the first half of 2018.  Next generation improvements such as energy storage, artificial intelligence, advanced materials and blockchain will only enhance the rise of wind energy.

One of the obvious advantages of wind energy is the low carbon dioxide emission per kWh generated (note, this is not zero for green energy because there are carbon emissions introduced in the manufacture and transport of these alternatives):

• wind             12
• nuclear         16
• biomass        18
• PV                46
• natural gas  469
• coal           1001

One point I should underscore is that a swift conversion to clean energy might not be wise.  There are economic factors involved that argue against a hasty transition.  On the other hand, if global warming is worse than we think, quick could well be the best solution.

Yet, as I earlier mentioned, all is not hunky-dory, for the Not In My Back Yard, NIMBY, syndrome is gaining ground.  Health, noise, anti-technology, whatever, this attitude seems especially prominent in Hawaii, where geothermal and biofuel developments are also being fought.

If you wish to think in these negative terms, you must read John Droz Jr on:

     Twenty Bad Things About Wind Energy, and Three Reasons Why

If you read about his background, you will find that he has been an environmental activist for 25 years and is pro-science.  You need to dig deeper to learn that he belongs to the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, formerly known as the American Tradition Institute.  This group has historically opposed wind power.

Now that you have been alerted to why you read such negativity about wind energy, sort of like for global warming, here is, in fact, a real looming problem.

The global wind-turbine market is set to experience a degree of turbulence over the next few years, rising steadily from $76.54 billion in 2015 to $81.14 billion in 2019, and dipping to $71.21 billion in 2020, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

Why?  The U.S. Production Tax Credits will expire in 2020.  The Oil Depletion Allowance was enacted in 1926, and is not set to expire anytime soon.  The current law for wind energy provides 2.3 cents/kWh.  This disappears on January 1, 2020.  As 2019 projects still get 40% of that credit, there will be a rush this year to build more wind farms in the USA.  In 2020, the U.S. is expected to drop to #3, with China #1 at 26% of the market and Germany #2 at 10%.

But will the Congress restore that credit?  From way back when I worked for U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, who originated that benefit, it has come and gone and returned, etc.  Eleven times.  There is no way that there will be a comeback this year.  In 2021, perhaps, if Democrats run the White House and Congress.  Global warming remediation will be the motivation, as intimated above.

Finally about the technology itself, wind energy conversion devices continue to get larger.  Last year General Electric reported that they are designing a 12-MW machine standing a football field length high for offshore operations.  The largest in operation today continues to be the offshore Vestas in Denmark, now at 9.5 MW.  On land, an Enercon in Germany at 7.58 MW is the most powerful.

The largest vertical axis turbine, named Eole, is in Canada at a nameplate capacity of 3.8 MW.  I mention this option because there are so few of them.  I think there is a definite future for this type of device, for the wind can come from any direction, it should be more stable, all the gears and motors are on the ground, it is more efficient, and safer.

Which leads to a difficult to comprehend fact:  single blade wind energy conversion devices should be more efficient than current turbines, although no one has built a commercial version.  Something to do with metastability.

Okay, then, if the fewer  the blades the better, what about a zero-blade turbine?  A Spanish company, called Vortex Bladeless, has proposed this radical design:

What about some other futuristic concepts?

• Google X owns Makani Power, which has built an energy kite, operating at greater heights where the winds are maximal, tethered by a cable to transport the electricity back down.  The higher production results in less material/kWh.

• Atelier DNA is working on a windstalk bladeless generator for Masdar City, Abu Dhabi.

• Heard of the silent Wind Harvester from Wind Power Innovations Ltd?  Only half a meter high, and can be placed atop buildings or hills, and useful for low wind speeds.  Makes no sense to me.

• The Dutch Windwheel, 190 feet high, now this is really something, so much so that I show two images, although it is still in planning and not for major energy production:

• Buoyant Airborne Turbine (BAT), from Mitsubishi and others, is a helium-filled ballon to harvest winds at a third of a mile up, with supposedly an eight times higher power density compared to the surface:

• Last one...Solar Park South from Italy.  You can read the details, but this is only the second place project.

Well, just one more:  highway wind power generation, where the moving cars provide the energy source.  Too bad this graphic does not show those vehicles.

For those wishing more, I stumbled across this article with a few more uber wild ideas for wind power, as, for example, the Grimshaw Aerogenerator and Wind Dam.

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