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Saturday, May 18, 2019

THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Earlier this week I was inspired by an article in the 22 April 2019 issue of Time magazine to pontificate on whether CEOs were overpaid.  Today, I take off on a second matter from the same Time, a report about the European Union.  Yes, I know this will be fatally boring, but you'll be amazed what you will learn if you read on.  We know so very little about the EU.

The history of the United States of America is remarkable.  From nothing to becoming the supreme nation in the world with no peer, accomplishing all that in less than a quarter millennium.

The European Union is also a grand experiment, and has taken almost half a century to form its alliance.  In 1946 Winston Churchill advocated the emergence of a United States of Europe.  The 1948 Hague Congress led to a movement, founding the Council of Europe in 1949, drawing together ten nations.  The focus then was on human rights and democracy, not economics or trade.

In 1957 six nations created the European Economic Community.  The European Communities group was formed in 1965.  A few other nations joined, and in 1979 the first direct elections to the European Parliament were held.  A few more countries joined, and in 1985 the Schengen Agreement paved the way for open borders without passport control.  The Fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 quickened the pace, and the European Union was finally established with the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, using a flag designed in 1955 with a dozen golden stars on a dark blue background.



How many of you thought that the EU formed soon after World War II?  The European Union is, officially, only 26 years old.  Austria, Finland and Sweden only joined in 1995.  The Euro was introduced in 2002, and now is used in 19 countries.  In 2004, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia became members.

The EU was up to 27 members when it won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.  Croatia became the 28th member in 2013.  Possible future countries include Albania, Iceland, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia, Herzegovina and Kosovo.

Then in 2016 the United Kingdom withdrew from the EU.  BREXIT remains a contested case, as no one knows for sure if the membership will drop back to 27, or not.  The UK has the largest city, London, and English is the prominent language of discourse.   Have you ever participated in any EU gathering?  The British have a huge advantage. The EU does have 24 official languages, plus up to 150 minority ones, making translations a major pain.  

The EU has a population of 512 million, over 1.7 million square miles.  In comparison, the USA has 320 million and 3.8 million square miles.

72% of EUs are Christian, with 1.8% Muslim and 24% either Agnostic or Atheist.  According to Pew, 23% of Americans are atheists, but unaffiliated Americans are much more likely to pray and believe in God.  In other words, irreligious Americans are more religious than those in Europe.

American politics are screwed up, but simple.  The EU is complicated, and worse.  The president of the European Council is Donald Tusk (left) of Poland.  There is also a European Commision, and the current president is Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg.  Anyone ever heard of them?

What is the relationship between the EU and NATO?  Essentially, none, so the EU has formed its own military responses to international conflicts.

The EU is the second largest economy in the world.  Member states have a net worth of $78 trillion, next to the USA with $98 trillion.  161 of  the 500 largest corporations are headquartered in the EU.  Unemployment was up to 11% in 2013, but has dropped to 6.5%, compared to the U.S. at 3.8%.  However, Germany is at 3.1% and Italy at 10.7%  That is one of the EU's biggest problems: weak nations like Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain.

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The U.S. has problems, sure, but the EU?
  • Pending departure of the UK, which could catalyze other exits.
  • Those weak economies mentioned above.
  • Migration and related societal integration concerns.
  • Related terrorism threats.
  • Resurgent Russia and effect on their elections,
Let me finish with just one of the above five, immigration:

Migrant arrivals to Italy have almost dried up, new asylum requests across the European Union have more than halved in three years and at the end of 2018, Hungary’s reception centers housed just three refugees.

However, just 3% of citizens said "all is well" on the migration front.  The bottom line is that 4.57 million people have requested asylum in the EU since the last political campaigns in 2014.  Immigrants are still coming, but the number should be below 150,000 this year.  This issue has enhanced the position of nationalists (Europe first, in the spirit of Donald Trump) and eurosceptic parties.  REMEMBER:  EU voting soon occurs from May 23-26, something that happens every five years.

Let me end with one grumpy statement.  The USA has one vote in the United Nations.  The European Union has 28.

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