Sure, sometimes I play the role of a contrarian to stimulate discussion on an issue. However, I don't think I'm particularly oppugnant in many of my longstanding views on the future of sustainable transport, mostly ignored by just about everyone:
1. For a third of century now I have advocated biomethanol (methanol from the gasification and catalysis of biomass) over ethanol (not only is fermentation from corn terrible, but the biological process from cellulose makes no sense in comparison to methanol):
Carbon hydrate is any biomass. I don't think there is even one project today in Hawaii dealing with methanol from biomass. I got a sense from the World Renewable Energy Forum last week, though, that attitudes are improving. The Biomethanol Economy should be the transitional pathway for ground transport.
2. For the record, there was a plug-in car in 1912, as shown to the right. So further on ground transport, Hawaii is plunging headlong into the plug-in electric vehicle because people here think this is clean and best for the environment. Even the Honolulu Star Advertiser yesterday endorsed this pathway. First, the electricity to charge the batteries comes from oil in the 50th State and mostly coal in the rest of the world. This condition will remain for decades to come. Second, plug-in EVs are having problems competing with gasoline even in Europe (where gas prices are twice that of the U.S.--remember to multiply by five when you convert Euro/liter to $/gallon). Treehugger, an environmentally sensitive blog site, admits that EVs may not be competitive until 2030. And they are talking about the continental USA, which has an average electricity price one-third that of Hawaii! I have close friends who bought into the plug-in EV. I'm mystified about my ability to convince even them.
3. I thus have long thought that biomethanol fed to a direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) was the most sensible proposition for the world. Why? A comparison between lithium battery and fuel cell cars shows that the latter can go FIVE times further. The problem is that hydrogen is too expensive. Fortunately enough, methanol is the ONLY liquid fuel capable of being relatively efficiently directly processed by a fuel cell. Further, one gallon of methanol has 1.4 times more accessible hydrogen than one gallon of liquid hydrogen. But there is another problem. The Farm Lobby effectively prevented the Department of Energy from undertaking any major efforts at developing a DMFC for vehicles. This will take about a decade if a full court press begins today. Mind you, Toshiba has for more than two years now marketed a DMFC for portable electronics, so you know the concept is feasible.
4. Finally, I have since the mid-70's felt that aviation had to convert from our present jetliners to hydrogen powered aircraft or someday Hawaii's economy would crash, for when oil shoots up past $150/barrel, and stays there for a while, Hawaii would fall into a prolonged economic depression, as tourism is our only real economy. This is primarily why I went to work for Senator Spark Matsunaga in 1979 and drafted the legislation that became the Matsunaga Hydrogen Act, stimulating the Department of Defense to spend a couple of billion dollars on the National Aerospace Plane (above), which was supposed to be fueled by hydrogen. Amazingly enough, two decades later, there is still some military R&D ongoing, but as a Black Project. There is no hope for a Global Hydrogen Express into the foreseeable future unless something like the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, a dirigible, succeeds. I'm meeting with Rinaldo Brutoco, who heads this effort, next week.
Finally, there is something about jet fuel from algae that seems beguiling because microorganisms can produce up to ten times more mass from sunlight than terrestrial crops. There was even a DARPA official who expressed hope that a biofuel could be produced from algae for $2/gallon, if not down to $1. Yet, you got to wonder why the U.S. Navy might be paying $27/gallon ($1134/barrel) for the Rim of the Pacific Exercise, something apparently now prohibited by the U.S. House, and, perhaps too, the Senate. My latest sense is that $4/gallon ($168/barrel--petroleum today is selling for $90/barrel) jet fuel from a bio-system might be possible in 5 to 10 years with a $1/billion per year Federal program. As this is not happening, I can only be depressed about where Hawaii will be in the Year 2020.
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