THE SHAPE OF WHAT'S TO COME

Locally

1. Our economy will recover by next year. Tourists will return and all will seem well. Unfortunately, in five to ten years will come $150+/barrel oil, and the price of jet full will make travel to Hawaii prohibitive. My daily blog of July 21 provides the gory details, but emphasizes one point: if we want to minimize the length of the predicted local depression, we must work together and we must do it NOW!

2. Among the predictable things to come then will be legalized gambling and the first signs of the Blue Revolution with a Disney at Sea. I say, bring them on now.

3. By 2050, Hawaii will largely have sustainable electrical and ground transport systems, but air travel will mostly remain non-renewable and expensive.

Nationally

1. Sonia Sotomayer will easily be confirmed as the first Hispanic Supreme Court Justice within the week.

2. A medical reform package will pass by December, but it will not be an optimal plan. Obama will annually attempt to improve the program.

3. The Congress will pass a cap and trade carbon dioxide measure to provide the Obama Administration an air of progressiveness for the upcoming December Copenhagen climate change conference. The problem is that the package will be so useless that the world will set it aside for something hopefully better. China and India will remain recalcitrant. Copenhagen will be nice but hardly sufficient.

Internationally

1. America will leave Iraq by 2012.

2. I would recommend that we declare victory in Afghanistan and leave by 2012, also.

3. Iran will begin to develop a nuclear capability and Israel will overreact by bombing likely sites. They have no other choice.

4. There are only two solutions to peace in the Middle East. Israel is totally decimated by nuclear weapons or, over the next century, democracy prevails.

5. Since I seem to be focused on the Year 2012, President Obama will host the G9 countries that year (G8 plus China). In any event, 2012 will be an interesting year, which is a kind of Chinese curse. Oh, THE VENUS SYNDROME will predict the end of life as we know it in 2012. We hope to publish by 2010.

Globally

1. The world will not come to an end in 2012. Hey, that will be a novel.

2. There will be a hot summer before 2015 when devastating hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones will cause half a trillion dollar in damages (Katrina alone was tabbed at $125 billion), plus millions will perish from global heating. Only then will the world take serious steps to minimize the Global Warming.

Have a great rest of your life.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials were wallowing until the final hour, when it made almost a 60 point surge to end up minus 25 at 9072. Crude oil crashed 6% to $63/barrel and gold dropped $11 to $928.

-

There are no cyclonic storms anywhere in the world today. However, the spot that shows the most potential is south and east of Hawaii at 132 West above, and if something forms, if it tries to go North, it will hit cooler waters.

-