The following is from Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. At the time of writing, the bird flu occupied the same dread as the swine flu today. My views on the swine flu are very similar to that of the avian bird flu.
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Are We Overreacting to the Avian Bird Flu?
Bird, or Avian, flu, particularly strain H5N1, was first seen in Hong Kong in 1997. The 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 40 million people, was an avian flu virus. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 150 million birds have been affected, but chances are the number is even higher. Humans can thus far be infected only by direct contact with the sick fowl.
Let us get the human and cost factors making some sense:
o On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the Senior UN System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned that this deadly virus could kill 150 million people.
o On November 3, 2005, the Asian Development Bank warned that the economic damage from a pandemic affecting 20% of the region’s populace could be $282 billion.
o On November 7, 2005, World Bank economists reported that a worldwide epidemic would cost $800 billion, with 100,000 to 200,000 dying in the United States alone.
o CNN reported on February 19, 2006 of a study reported by the Lowy Institute of Australia that as many as 142 million people around the world could die in a worst case scenario, causing global economic losses of $4.4 trillion.
o On March 27, 2006 Reuters reported that bird flu could cost insurers $53 billion. Fitch Ratings indicated that 400,000 deaths could occur in Europe and 209,000 in the U.S. 253
Well, at least there is some consistency that, perhaps, 200,000 might die in the U.S. But the financial loss ranged from $282 billion to $4.4 trillion.
However, during the past decade, only 321 cases have been confirmed, with around 200 deaths, although none in Europe nor the U.S. You cannot catch this flu by eating the flesh of a tainted bird nor from another individual who has this ailment. (The very latest data show that, since 2003, 436 have contracted this ailment and 262 have died, a mortality of 60%. After three months, 429 have died from the swine flu, so clearly the latter is of higher concern. However, by comparison, during this three month period, more than 100,000 probably died from the regular flu.)
A first generation vaccine has been developed. That is the good news. Hate to say this, but the volume of the very large injection is more than ten times the dose of a regular flu shot, and only half of you will be protected. Your home state has begun to purchase this vaccine with your tax contributions, but to inoculate health workers. The quest for a better vaccine, which will take a lot of money, makes sense, but to significantly stockpile something that will soon become obsolete is close to being dumb. The problem, of course, is that you can’t develop a vaccine if you don’t know what the strain will be.
All this sort of reminds me of the town fool, walking through downtown Chicago (or anywhere) banging a cymbal all day. When asked why he was doing this, he said he was trying to scare away marauding elephants. The remedy was effective, but was there a problem?
In counterpoint, every day, more than 3,000 people are killed in car accidents, where during the past nine years since this bird flu was first detected, more than 10 million have died in traffic—versus about two hundred bird flu deaths, versus 200 million sacrificed chickens. Kind of reminds me of shark against mankind. They get, oh, 5 of us every year, but we kill 100 million of those marauding predators (and mostly for their fin). Finally, Time reports that 430 babies die each year from sudden infant death caused by secondhand smoke. Anyone doing any research to find a vaccine to prevent smoking? Actually, from the previous section…yes.
A growing concern is the superbug, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), pronounced as mersa. In 2005 in the U.S., MRSA killed 19,000 (and made 94,000 seriously ill) Americans, a year when 17,000 died from AIDS complications. Hospitals and medical treatment centers are mostly responsible for this problem. But that’s another subject.
On May 31, 2006, it was reported that the H5N1 bird flue killed six of seven relatives in remote village in Indonesia, so, maybe, the virus had finally mutated. No, just poor sanitary practices did in this unlucky group. In the weeks following the quarantine from May 22, no additional cases were reported, and a genetic check on the virus indicated it had not mutated. There was a further quip that Indonesia is just, basically, screwed up as a government and can’t seem to organize anything. Now with 100 avian flu deaths as of 2008, Indonesia has leaped past Vietnam’s 48 fatalities.358
So what is the big deal with H5N1? I don’t know. The only way this specific avian flu can cause a pandemic is if the virus mutates, and while I’ve read reports stating that very few bird flu viruses have ever done this to infect humans, I saw an unsubstantiated newspaper report implying that flu viruses are prone to genetic mutations. What is the reality? Is this yet another example of airport security overkill? Don’t get me started on that one.
My simple solution is to be vigilant, but stop overreacting. You might be one of the more than half a billion or so slated to catch the flu this year, but the odds are infinitesimal for you being nailed by H5N1. Okay, it would be smart to avoid chicken farms in the Orient, and don’t prepare any dead fowl found in the woods for dinner, but don’t let this scare affect your eating habits. About all this money being spent as a precaution? Spend a small percent of it on educating the public about pandemics and continue researching the baselines for a future vaccine, but let’s not get carried away by something that almost surely will not happen.
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The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 161 to 8163. World markets also all fell. Crude oil continues to drop (see right) and gold dropped a buck to $924/toz.Bird, or Avian, flu, particularly strain H5N1, was first seen in Hong Kong in 1997. The 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 40 million people, was an avian flu virus. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 150 million birds have been affected, but chances are the number is even higher. Humans can thus far be infected only by direct contact with the sick fowl.
Let us get the human and cost factors making some sense:
o On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the Senior UN System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned that this deadly virus could kill 150 million people.
o On November 3, 2005, the Asian Development Bank warned that the economic damage from a pandemic affecting 20% of the region’s populace could be $282 billion.
o On November 7, 2005, World Bank economists reported that a worldwide epidemic would cost $800 billion, with 100,000 to 200,000 dying in the United States alone.
o CNN reported on February 19, 2006 of a study reported by the Lowy Institute of Australia that as many as 142 million people around the world could die in a worst case scenario, causing global economic losses of $4.4 trillion.
o On March 27, 2006 Reuters reported that bird flu could cost insurers $53 billion. Fitch Ratings indicated that 400,000 deaths could occur in Europe and 209,000 in the U.S. 253
Well, at least there is some consistency that, perhaps, 200,000 might die in the U.S. But the financial loss ranged from $282 billion to $4.4 trillion.
However, during the past decade, only 321 cases have been confirmed, with around 200 deaths, although none in Europe nor the U.S. You cannot catch this flu by eating the flesh of a tainted bird nor from another individual who has this ailment. (The very latest data show that, since 2003, 436 have contracted this ailment and 262 have died, a mortality of 60%. After three months, 429 have died from the swine flu, so clearly the latter is of higher concern. However, by comparison, during this three month period, more than 100,000 probably died from the regular flu.)
A first generation vaccine has been developed. That is the good news. Hate to say this, but the volume of the very large injection is more than ten times the dose of a regular flu shot, and only half of you will be protected. Your home state has begun to purchase this vaccine with your tax contributions, but to inoculate health workers. The quest for a better vaccine, which will take a lot of money, makes sense, but to significantly stockpile something that will soon become obsolete is close to being dumb. The problem, of course, is that you can’t develop a vaccine if you don’t know what the strain will be.
All this sort of reminds me of the town fool, walking through downtown Chicago (or anywhere) banging a cymbal all day. When asked why he was doing this, he said he was trying to scare away marauding elephants. The remedy was effective, but was there a problem?
In counterpoint, every day, more than 3,000 people are killed in car accidents, where during the past nine years since this bird flu was first detected, more than 10 million have died in traffic—versus about two hundred bird flu deaths, versus 200 million sacrificed chickens. Kind of reminds me of shark against mankind. They get, oh, 5 of us every year, but we kill 100 million of those marauding predators (and mostly for their fin). Finally, Time reports that 430 babies die each year from sudden infant death caused by secondhand smoke. Anyone doing any research to find a vaccine to prevent smoking? Actually, from the previous section…yes.
A growing concern is the superbug, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), pronounced as mersa. In 2005 in the U.S., MRSA killed 19,000 (and made 94,000 seriously ill) Americans, a year when 17,000 died from AIDS complications. Hospitals and medical treatment centers are mostly responsible for this problem. But that’s another subject.
On May 31, 2006, it was reported that the H5N1 bird flue killed six of seven relatives in remote village in Indonesia, so, maybe, the virus had finally mutated. No, just poor sanitary practices did in this unlucky group. In the weeks following the quarantine from May 22, no additional cases were reported, and a genetic check on the virus indicated it had not mutated. There was a further quip that Indonesia is just, basically, screwed up as a government and can’t seem to organize anything. Now with 100 avian flu deaths as of 2008, Indonesia has leaped past Vietnam’s 48 fatalities.358
So what is the big deal with H5N1? I don’t know. The only way this specific avian flu can cause a pandemic is if the virus mutates, and while I’ve read reports stating that very few bird flu viruses have ever done this to infect humans, I saw an unsubstantiated newspaper report implying that flu viruses are prone to genetic mutations. What is the reality? Is this yet another example of airport security overkill? Don’t get me started on that one.
My simple solution is to be vigilant, but stop overreacting. You might be one of the more than half a billion or so slated to catch the flu this year, but the odds are infinitesimal for you being nailed by H5N1. Okay, it would be smart to avoid chicken farms in the Orient, and don’t prepare any dead fowl found in the woods for dinner, but don’t let this scare affect your eating habits. About all this money being spent as a precaution? Spend a small percent of it on educating the public about pandemics and continue researching the baselines for a future vaccine, but let’s not get carried away by something that almost surely will not happen.
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Tropical Storm Blanca (40 MPH) is 500 miles southwest of Baha, moving northwest. It will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler water.
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