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วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 19 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2561

DON'T FRET OVER THE YELLOWSTONE SUPER VOLCANO

Day 78 of the Lower Puna Eruption and tourists continue to want to board those lava tour boats:

Shun Naganuma, a visitor from Japan who booked the tour with his girlfriend, said he thought about asking for a refund. “But we are excited, so we go as scheduled,” he said, adding that his expectation of the tour was 50 percent exciting and 50 percent scary.

How much does it cost?  $225 or $250 per person.

About that Yellowstone Super Volcano showing signs of waking up?  Here is what Snopes said:

Fissure Opens Up Near Yellowstone, Causing Park Closures and Irresponsible Headlines


I guess that must be me, too.  

Here is what the Jackson Hole News and Guide reported on July 10:

“Yesterday, Exum guides noticed cracks in the rocks,” Teton park spokeswoman Denise Germann said. “They communicated that to rangers this morning, and when they went to investigate they realized it had actually gotten bigger and expanded.”
The crack is about 100 feet long, she said, and runs horizontally along a rock wall that’s at least 100 feet tall.
Leading to:
For online sites looking for easy ad revenue, the topic of the Yellowstone super eruptions has been a gold mine — albeit it a factually challenged one. Any mention of Yellowstone can and will be turned into viral claims of the coming apocalypse. 
The Daily Mail, for example, in their reporting of a 100-foot horizontal crack in a rock ran with a headline sure to remind viewers of the fact that Yellowstone is a supervolcano: “Rock fissure sparks URGENT closure at Grand Teton National Park, just 60 miles from Yellowstone supervolcano.”
However:

The park closure was “urgent” because park rangers did not want climbers to be crushed by falling rocks, not because they feared an imminent volcano super-eruption. As we have reported previously, the likelihood of a large scale, globally disruptive super-eruption’s occurring at Yellowstone Park in our lifetimes is exceedingly low, and that event would be presaged by warning signs that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other entities are constantly monitoring.

And further:

Yellowstone’s magma chamber, most geologists agree, currently does not contain the volume of magma needed for such a large-scale eruption, and the process of replenishing that chamber occurs on slow timescales. The USGS consider the risk of a caldera-forming apocalypse at Yellowstone in the next couple of thousand years to be “exceedingly low.”

However, here is The Express:

EXCLUSIVE: Supervolcano eruption risks are 'EXTREMELY CATASTROPHIC' warns expert

Checking more closely, this was November of last year.  Both the Daily Mail and The Express emanate from the UK.

Yet, Yellowstone is one of only half a dozen super volcanoes.  Remember that the eruption of Toba 74,000 years ago almost extinguished the early line of Homo sapiens.  But this, too, is rather controversial.

Another:

A deadly supervolcano lies under Yellowstone — and an eruption would emit dangerous gases and spread ash for 500 miles

This from Business Insider last October, which is an American publication.  Only nine years old, BI has been generally accepted by the financial sector.  However, from Wikipedia:

The website has, however, faced criticism for its pronounced liberal bias, as well as clickbait-style headlines.[27][28][29] In 2013, The New Yorker criticized the website for prioritizing publishing speed over accuracy.[30] In 2018, the website received criticism from some media outlets after deleting a controversial column about Scarlett Johansson.[31][32]

The bottom line is that you should feel safe visiting Yellowstone National Park and the surrounding regions.  The most recent eruption was 70,000 years ago, and the recurrence interval is around 700,000 years.

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