1. Peak Oil
Yes, those "gathering storm" pronouncements keep getting written, but crude oil in the USA has dropped below $100/barrel (remember, this is $2.38/gallon) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange today has oil at $102.64 at the end of 2019. While many fear that the resource potential of Saudi Arabia is considerably inflated, they will increase production by 500,000 barrels/day next month to reach 10 million barrels/day, and reports show that 12 million barrels/day can be accommodated if necessary. While the annual clean energy budget for the Obama Administration is around $5 billion, oil companies will spend more than $500 billion this year to explore for and produce oil. The problem with Peak Oil is that petroleum companies pay professionals to diminish the reality, too many in the public at large almost believe them, decision-makers just won't make the right decisions and when it hits, it will already be too late. With 10 being high anxiety, I place Peak Oil at 4 in terms of public perception and 8 on the reality scale.
2. Global Warming
Less than half of Americans believe that human activity is causing climate warming. The media tend to cover newsworthy noise, and these tend to come from Republicans, who have sufficiently confused the issue, with the result being that the masses just don't think about it much. Basically, the economy, sports, the comics, astrology and wars preoccupy the attention capabilities of most Americans (add World to this lot), but only scientists can measure the small fraction of an inch sea level rise and even smaller fraction of a degree Fahrenheit temperature change each year. So NASA reports that the past decade has been the warmest on record. This has as much impact as the last meteor shower. On a scale of 1 to 10 (great concern), the public perceives global warming at around a 3.5, while I think it should be closer to 8.
3. Nuclear Power
Chernobyl (right) scared off some nuclear power investments, but the world got over it. Will Fukushima (below) nail the fission coffin? Italy has joined Japan, Switzerland and Germany in saying no to nuclear power, while China and India are re-thinking their exuberance. The USA essentially gave up after Three Mile Island in 1979, and the Fukushima calamity locked the door. So, is nuclear power dead? Although I may have suggested so in my Huffington Post article on this subject, my sense is that nuclear fission will make a comeback within the decade. When countries look at the economics of these decisions, weighing what non-fossil options are real, "common sense" will prevail, or, worse, coal consumption will continue to increase. With fusion power many, many decades away, renewable energy is not yet quite ready for prime time. Who said, though, that people power doesn't have much influence on elected officials (I have hinted so). On this issue, however, those in political power listened to their constituency, and joined the bandwagon. This is why Jefferson and Madison on writing the Constitution included language to
neutralize the voting public. (By the way, these two also attempted to prevent companies from influencing elections, but were voted down.) California is a good example of how too much democracy can be deadly. If fission power was a 4 on 11March2011, I give it a 6 (10 being no fission power in 25 years) today.
4. The Muslim Revolution and Israel
Let's see now, Tunisia and Egypt fell and Yemen is one step closer, while Syria and Libya are getting close. Look for a few more. About future peace in the Middle East, don't be shocked if Israel somehow finds a way to demolish an Iranian nuclear facility. Israel has warned Iran. Saudi Arabia has already given approval. Remember, in 2007 Israel destroyed a partly constructed nuclear reactor in Syria (right). What will be the repercussions? On a scale of 1 (eternal peace) to 10 (Armageddon), I don't know.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials snuck up a whole point to 11,953, with world markets mixed. Gold fell $16/toz to $1516, while the NYMEX crude is at $97/barrel and Brent Spot at $119/barrel, a record $22/barrel difference, probably still influenced by the Libyan revolt. Oil was $147/barrel on 11July2008 and, only a little more than five months later, $30 on 23December 2008. This wild uncertainty makes renewable energy investments all that much more a risk.
-
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น