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วันอาทิตย์ที่ 8 มิถุนายน พ.ศ. 2551

UPDATE ON PEAK OIL AND GLOBAL WARMING

The past few days have been ominous and depressing with regarding Peak Oil and Global Warming. First, let me adjust three items from my previous posting:

1. The headline indicated $46 trillion recommended for climate change. We only need $45 trillion, according to the International Energy Agency. This study was the headline article of The Huntington Post Green Section on June 7 (http://huntingtonpost.com/green/). Remember, now, the entire defense budget of the entire world was $1.2 trillion this past year. So how can you find $45 trillion? Well, most of the expenditures are expected ones, as for anticipated nuclear powerplants and such.

2. I said that on Friday (June 6) that the Dow Jones had dropped by more than 400 points. Not so bad, as the decline was only 395 points. But, will the feared recession transition into the big D?

3. The weekend price of oil actually settled at $138.54/barrel.

But that was not all:

1. ON FRIDAY, THE GLOBAL CHANGE BILL WAS KILLED BY REPUBLICANS IN THE U.S. SENATE.

2. ALSO ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAD ITS GREATEST INCREASE IN 22 YEARS.

3. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL INDICATED ON SATURDAY THAT THE COPENHAGEN CONSENSUS CENTER LISTED GLOBAL WARMING AS #30 IN THEIR RANKING OF THIRTY WORLD PRIORITIES. THE EXERCISE INVOLVED 5 NOBEL LAUREATES.

So what do these developments mean? First, there are cherished and traditional organizations not only unconvinced about global warming, but are further reinforcing their contention that this is mostly a liberal and academic conspiracy. Charles Krauthammer's editorial of 30May08 in National Review Online (http://nationalreview.com) well captures the agnostic view on this matter.

Second, the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming is finally beginning to affect the global economy, as stock markets are beginning to react and unemployment rates are rising.

Third, the reasonably cautious International Energy Agency suggesting $45 trillion (not billion, trillion) to do something about climate change is sobering, as the total annual world defense budget is only $1.2 trillion. That's bad enough, but decision-makers are not even close to agreeing on any societal response. Well, on to Hokkaido later this year for the G8 nations, where the focus is supposedly on the environment. Don't hold your breath, as Obama does not appear until next year.

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