SOME THOUGHTS ON OUR ECONOMY

If Peak Oil and Global Warming combine to clobber Planet Earth and Humanity, two things will happen: a global depression and discomfort to our wellbeing. The affect on our economy, of course, will also significantly impact our lifestyle, but the true fear is if the Venus Syndrome occurs to terminate Homo Sapien life. You can go to Chapter 5 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth (http://simplesolutionsbook1.com/) to read the gory details.

Regarding the economy, early signs show that we are already in something on the order of a recession, and Hawaii will be hurt more than almost everywhere else. Why? Because our economy is dependent on tourism, and the cost of jet fuel will very negatively affect these revenues. If China and Korea can send a sufficient number of visitors because of improvements in visa requirements, we might luck out at only a 20% drop. I fear, though, that 50% potential. Around the world, the shadow of bad economic times loom.

Chapter 5 in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity (http://simplesolutionsbook2.com/) provides a glimpse of these signs. Until 1971 gold generally sold for less than $50/troy ounce. Gold is now up to $923/toz, and there seems to be some correlation between high gold prices and a really poor economy. In 1980, just after the second energy crisis, gold shot up to $875/toz. Of course, $875/toz is equivalent to a price today of $2300/toz, so it has been a lot worse. Gold has gone up 11.3% from a year ago, but platinum has jumped by 34.7% and silver by 19.1%.

Ominously, oil yesterday hit $142.99/barrel and ended at $140.21, both ALL TIME HIGHS. Our stock market reacted by the DOW dropping 460 points on Thursday and Friday. Oil has leaped up 46.1% from a year ago.

Let’s look at comparisons of other exchanges and commodities with a year ago:

Dow Jones -14.46%
Shanghai -42.85%
Paris -21.67%
Hong Kong -20.75%
Singapore -14.71%
Tokyo -11.52%

But Chevron has increased in value by 4.5%, Costco by 0.5% and Wal-Mart by 8.8%. United Airlines is down 30.1%, Boyd Gaming 21.7%, Royal Caribbean 20% and McDonald’s 2.4%.

Foreign Exchange Currency per U.S. Dollars:

Euro +14.8%
Japanese Yen +13.2%
Singapore Dollar +11.4%
Chinese Yuan + 9.9%
Russian Ruble + 9.1%
British Pound 0
Hong Kong Dollar 0

Food increases:

Corn 65.6%
Soybeans 31.9%
Wheat 1.2%
Orange Juice -24.3%

What do these all mean? I don’t know, I'm an engineer, not an economist. We’ll see where we are in a year.
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